Business and Markets

In 2020, the global semiconductor materials market expanded 5% to reach $55.3 billion in revenue to set a new industry record. The momentum in growth is expected to continue throughout 2021 despite the lingering pandemic.

VLSI Research announced the list of top suppliers of critical subsystems to the semiconductor industry in 2020. The data shows that companies supplying products to chipmakers for use in the sub-fab had a good year, but those providing products directly to OEMs had an outstanding year.

The global semiconductor industry is on track to register a rare three consecutive years of record highs in fab equipment spending with a 16% increase in 2020 followed by forecast gains of 15.5% this year and 12% in 2022, SEMI highlighted in its quarterly World Fab Forecast report.

Despite the pandemic lock-down, demand for electronic products and services remains strong. Work-from-home, video conferencing, and remote learning are driving data center growth and laptop and tablet demand. 5G infrastructure rollout is underway and smartphone sales are returning to normal levels. Automotive sales are increasing. At the same time, the industry is experiencing acute shortages of substrates. The October 2020 fire at Unimicron’s IC package substrate plant in Taiwan exposed the serious nature of the capacity shortage for IC package substrates. Substrate makers have been reluctant to make large investments in capacity over the last few years due to the fear that demand could decline and they would have excess capacity. Relentless price pressures by customers and the resulting low margins have weakened the finances of substrate suppliers. With tight capacity, substrate prices have increased and lead times are 14 weeks or more. The most critical shortage is for flip chip ball grid array (FC-BGA) substrates. In addition to increased demand in units, applications such as servers and networking products are seeing requirements for larger body sizes and increased layer counts. Shortages will not improve very soon because it takes time to build a new plant. And equip it. Key equipment for substrate production has lead times of up to a year. SEMI and TechSearch International detailed the substrate makers and provide projections for the substrate market, trends, and a list of suppliers and their plant locations in the Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook report. The report also highlights the market and suppliers for leadframes, bonding wire, encapsulation materials, underfill, die attach, solder balls, wafer level package dielectrics, and wafer-level plating chemicals. In times of shortages the report is an important indicator of suppliers in the industry and trends. Jan Vardaman is President at TechSearch International Inc.

Themed Think Smart, Make Smart, SEMICON SEA 2021 will gather industry experts to highlight the latest developments, innovations and trends in segments of electronics including smart manufacturing, smart mobility, smart data, AI and 5G as technology continues to reshape the way people work and live. SEMICON SEA is the premier electronics manufacturing event in Southeast Asia. SEMICON SEA 2021 will offer traditional opportunities to generate new business opportunities at physical booths and as hybrid event will add a new online networking lounge, chat rooms on various key industry topics, and live broadcasts to enable business matching. Themed Think Smart, Make Smart, SEMICON SEA 2021 will gather industry experts to highlight the latest developments, innovations and trends in segments of electronics including smart manufacturing, smart mobility, smart data, AI and 5G as technology continues to reshape the way people work and live. SEMICON SEA is the premier electronics manufacturing event in Southeast Asia. Video Video 2

Back in 2012, China ranked fifth among seven regions worldwide in IC wafer capacity but surged past the Americas and Japan in 2018 and 2019 to claim the number three position (figure 1). That’s a big deal given that ICs account for the largest share of wafer capacity excluding discrete, opto, MEMS and sensors.China’s IC wafer capacity growth accelerated to tune of 14% in 2019 and 21% in 2020 and is expected to grow at least 17% this year, as we report in the latest update of the World Fab Forecast, published December 3rd by SEMI. Of all regions, Taiwan boasts the second strongest growth rate over the same period at 3% to 4%.Figure 1: Total IC installed wafer capacity for top five regions The report shows that from 2019 through the end of 2021 China will have increased wafer capacity for memory by 95%, foundry by 47% and analog by 29%. Foundry will represent the largest portion of those gains, reaching 2 million wpm (200mm equivalents). Memory will follow at about 1.5 million wpm and then analog at over 120,000 wpm.But Chinese companies aren’t pulling off this feat singlehandedly. Many international companies are contributing to the wafer capacity increases in China (figure 2). Figure 2: IC wafer capacity in China by company origin The share of capacity contributed by Chinese-owned companies and international companies has changed little since 2012, though Chinese-owned companies saw a slight dip in their slice of the pie from 60% to 57%From 2019 through 2021, Chinese-owned companies will add almost 60% capacity for foundries, the most of all sectors. Companies including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Nexchip, XMC and Hua Li Microelectronics are driving the increases.During the same period, Chinese-owned companies will ramp up memory capacity from basically zero to 300,000 wpm. Companies such as Yangtze Memory Technology and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), also known as Innotron, are powering the quick rise with aggressive ramps of 3D NAND and DRAM capacity.Among international-owned companies, TSMC and UMC are driving the largest share of foundry growth, while Samsung, SK Hynix and Intel are powering gains in memory capacity.More information is available in the World Fab Forecast report. The report currently collects information for fab equipment and construction investment, capacities, technologies and product types for over 280 fabs and lines in China alone, including 40 facilities that either began operation in 2020 or will from 2021 through 2024.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.

Sales of critical subsystems for use in semiconductor manufacturing equipment will exceed $12.2 billion in 2020, a 6% increase over the previous record of $11.5 billion reached in 2018. What makes this such a remarkable feat is they achieved this despite unprecedented disruptions to the supply chain.The key to critical subsystems suppliers’ success was a swift and efficient response to the initial local shutdowns due to COVID-19 in February and March. Within four to six weeks, most vendors had secured their supply of raw materials and put the required measures in place to ensure the safety of their workforce and reduce the risk of being shut down themselves. Most were reporting a return to high volume manufacturing by May. There were no significant holdups reported, which means everyone stepped up their response to enable the semiconductor equipment industry to deliver double-digit growth. It also helped that before the pandemic, most suppliers expected 2020 to 2023 to be healthy growth years and already had plans to add capacity this year. Those plans are being accelerated, and delivery is no longer an issue for most vendors in the near term. This is just as well as OEMs are advising their suppliers to cope with a 20% surge in orders in any given quarter in 2021.While the overall growth rate for critical subsystems in 2020 is on track to beat 19%, some suppliers had to deal with extraordinary growth. Suppliers of vacuum valves, chillers, and optical fiber thermometry are likely to grow above 35%, while suppliers of process power subsystems are looking at increasing around 30%. The extra demand can be explained partly by the very low inventories of these products held by customers at the beginning of the year, which needed replenishing. However, the main reason for the above-average growth is that these segments have been outgrowing the overall critical subsystems industry for several years due to semiconductor manufacturing becoming more vacuum intense.Critical Subsystems for Semiconductor Applications in Billions of DollarsNext year is shaping up to be another record for critical subsystems with growth rates in the high single digits predicted. The next cyclical downturn is forecast to be 2024, but these are unprecedented times, and the risk of a downturn in 2022 cannot be excluded. Whatever the future holds, the critical subsystems supply chain has proved they can raise their game when the chips are down… or up.For more information about critical subsystems and VLSI Research, please visit our website.John West is managing director at VLSI Research Europe.

The global economy has started down a gradual path to recovery from COVID-19 in recent months as the world continues to combat the virus. Yet one sector – semiconductors – has shown impressive growth powered by a transformation hastened by the pandemic across industries ranging from education and work-from-home to healthcare.Semiconductor sales increased 12% in September to mark a second consecutive month of double-digit growth, and year-to-date semiconductor receipts as of September jumped 5.5% compared to the same period in 2019, according to SIA/WSTS.While this upward trajectory is encouraging, it pales compared to 2020 semiconductor equipment billings growth, with results from SEMI showing worldwide global chip equipment billings in September soaring to a new high of $7.6 billion this year. During the first nine months of 2020, aggregate equipment billings logged a 23.6% rise compared to the same stretch in 2019, surpassing $51 billion. Better still, the total semiconductor equipment market in 2020 is on track to beat the previous high of $64.5 billion set in 2018.Investments in China, Taiwan and Korea are fueling the chipmaking equipment spending surge. With big domestic and international fab projects in the works, China this year is projected to become the world’s largest capital equipment market for the first time, surpassing Taiwan, which will follow at a close second. Korea will rank third in equipment investments. Taiwan and Korea growth will come on the strength of equipment spending for manufacturing leading-edge semiconductors.Equipment billings in North America and Europe declined year-over-year as the automotive and industrial sectors suffered the heaviest blows from COVID-19. Investment momentum in both regions is expected to pick up in 2021 after automotive production recovers to pre-pandemic levels while factory automation will boost industrial demand.For more information about monthly equipment billing trends by region and equipment segment, please see the SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription.Clark Tseng is director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI.

Global business conditions continued to improve through October although the rate of improvement slowed a bit as pandemic concerns increased (Chart 1).Electronic Equipment Shipments RecoveringThird-quarter world electronic equipment shipment growth showed a big improvement over the second quarter but was still down an estimated 1.4% compared to the same quarter in 2019 (Chart 2).Based on regional electronic equipment shipment data, October 2020 sales were up 3.5% versus October 2019 and up 6.1% sequentially versus September 2020 (Chart 3). As the traditional autumn busy season winds down, the key impediment to a strong recovery is the rising COVID-19 infection rates, especially in the United States and Europe. The world awaits the deployment of a much-needed vaccine.Semiconductor Growth May be EbbingSemiconductor chip shipments continue to increase but their global rate of growth has leveled off to mid-single digits (Chart 4). Wafer foundry sales growth also appears to be peaking (Chart 5), pointing to slower chip growth in coming months.SEMI Equipment ShinesSemiconductor capital equipment shipments continue to outshine both electronic equipment and semiconductors. Third-quarter 2020 SEMI global sales were up a whopping 31% compared to the same quarter in 2019 and up 16% versus the second quarter of 2020 (Chart 6). SEMI equipment shipments are definitely outpacing semiconductors on a 3/12 growth basis (Chart 7).SEMI Outpaces Electronic Supply ChainGlobal electronic supply chain growth is improving but the semiconductor sector is clearly the winner this autumn (Chart 8).Looking Forward, Pandemic Spread is Biggest WorryBusiness conditions definitely look brighter. Even stronger growth is likely if we can get COVID-19 under control.Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics [email protected].

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just raised its regional GDP growth forecasts. For the world it predicts a 4.4% global GDP decline this year followed by a 5.2% expansion next year. This economic turnaround hinges on being guided by good science, political leadership and popular acceptance.