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The silicon wafer market showed promising signs of recovery in Q2 2024, bouncing back after a prolonged downturn. The growth is fueled by seasonal factors and strong demand from investments in AI data centers, however, the consumer, automotive, and industrial segments are experiencing a slower pace of recovery. Historically, year-over-year (YoY) growth in semiconductor equipment investments tends to hit a low point before rebounding and typically contributing to an upward trend in wafer shipments. Figure 1 depicts this trend since 2001, with the only exceptions to wafer shipments following the rebound of fab equipment spending coming in the periods of the second and third quarters in 2002 and 2013, which are highlighted in gray. Figure 1* Notes 1) Data source: SEMI WWSEMS and SMG wafer shipments data 2) For semiconductor equipment spending, data from 2001 to 2024 is based on WWSEMS wafer processing equipment billing data 3) Equipment spending is updated through August 2024 This pattern underscores the crucial role of equipment investments in expanding production capacity and driving wafer demand. Following the rebound in equipment investment growth rates observed in 2024, projections indicate continued growth into 2025. This recovery in investments is expected to translate into increased wafer shipments, reinforcing a positive outlook for the silicon wafer market’s sustained growth.Additionally, the influence of DRAM Blended ASP (Average Selling Price) growth trends on wafer demand is significant. The historical data in Figure 2 shows that when DRAM ASP growth rates peak and then decline, wafer shipment growth tends to slow down after a lag. Figure 2* Remarks 1) Data source: SEMI SMG wafer shipments data and the Bank of Korea 2) DRAM ASP is updated through September 2024. With DRAM pricing potentially entering a downward trend in early 2025, this poses a key risk to the pace of the wafer market’s recovery. Looking ahead, wafer shipment growth is expected to vary by wafer type and diameter, with low to mid-double-digit growth projected for 2025, mid-to-high single-digit growth for 2026, and a notable slowdown in 2027. This forecast reflects evolving demand dynamics and ongoing market adjustments.In conclusion, the sustained recovery of the silicon wafer market hinges on a combination of increasing semiconductor equipment investments, the stabilization of raw material inventory levels among chipmakers, and careful monitoring of DRAM pricing trends. While the current upward trend in equipment investments is a positive driver for wafer shipments, the potential deceleration of DRAM Blended ASP growth poses a significant downside risk. If DRAM pricing exerts a sustained negative influence, it could shorten both the amplitude and duration of the current wafer market upcycle more than anticipated. This report not only examines these key investment and shipment dynamics but also provides an in-depth analysis of broader market trends, including supply-demand balances and pricing dynamics. By addressing these interconnected factors, it offers a comprehensive and forward-looking perspective on the long-term growth potential of the silicon wafer market.SEMI’s Silicon Wafer Market Monitor Report offers unique insights into global silicon wafer shipments, supply and demand dynamics, and average selling price (ASP) projections. This comprehensive quarterly report breaks down silicon shipments by region and wafer size, including 300mm, 200mm, and 150mm wafers, providing a detailed view of the market landscape.Semiconductor manufacturers, investors, and industry analysts rely on this report as an essential tool for making informed business decisions and exploring the latest data and trends shaping the future of the semiconductor industry.Download a sample of the Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor report. For more information on the report or to subscribe, please contact the SEMI Market Intelligence Team at [email protected]. Details on SEMI market data are available at SEMI Market Data. Sungho Yoon is Principal Analyst on the SEMI Market Intelligence team.
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SEMI Korea Members Day 2025 in September featured a wealth of insights on semiconductor industry market and technology trends. As the two-year semiconductor inventory correction eases, Soo-Kyoum Kim, vice president at International Data Corporation (IDC), provided a market update during his address to the event’s 400 attendees at the Suwon Convention Center. He highlighted that the semiconductor market is showing signs of gradual recovery, with growth predicted for the second half of 2024 and into 2025. This growth, he said, is being fueled by rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high bandwidth memory (HBM). He projected that the total semiconductor market would grow to $779.8 billion in 2025, marking a 15.8% increase from this year's estimate of $673 billion. By next year, the memory market is expected to rise by 24%, largely driven by demand for AI. Although consumer demand will likely weaken due to a slowdown in the Chinese market, Kim shared that easing inventory adjustments will lead to a rebound during the second half of 2024, particularly in the growth of DRAM and NAND. Kim also predicted that the non-memory market, which reached $503.4 billion this year, will grow to $569.4 billion by 2025.Additionally, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for semiconductor network and data center sales is projected to be 26.4% and 16.2% by 2028, respectively. Kim explained that the strong demand for AI semiconductors in data centers and networks will help the semiconductor market maintain an 8% CAGR over the next five years, following the 2023 market adjustment.SEMI Korea Members Day HighlightsH.D. ChoThe AI-driven industrial transformation is demanding more advanced processes. To accommodate AI, the industry has shifted its focus away from miniaturization toward back-end processes. However, the challenges facing Korea's semiconductor industry have also intensified. Leading semiconductor research firms shared in-depth market forecasts and presented their latest semiconductor technology roadmaps, offering insights on business strategies for Korea’s semiconductor ecosystem.In his opening remarks, H.D. Cho, president of SEMI Korea, expressed deep gratitude for the exceptional resilience of SEMI Korea’s members, who continue to overcome roadblocks despite global uncertainties. He also highlighted the growth of SEMI Korea’s member companies, emphasizing their positive role in the global semiconductor supply chain, as well as SEMI's ongoing commitment in supporting their innovations.Call for Renewable Energy Policy Reform to Achieve Net ZeroBora Lee, leader of Solutions For Our Climate (SFOC), emphasized the strong correlation between the semiconductor industry and Korea's economic growth. Lee also outlined key factors contributing to the high costs that hinder renewable energy adoption in the semiconductor sector. "Korea's levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for renewable energy is about 2-3 times higher than the global average," she said. "The establishment of a policy council involving semiconductor companies is a crucial step in developing cooperative strategies to promote the use of renewable energy." In addition, Lee stressed that collaboration among suppliers, consumers, and policymakers is necessary to address these barriers and accelerate the transition to renewable energy within the industry. AI is Reshaping the Global Memory MarketPeter Lee of CITI Group shared that the convergence of cloud and edge computing is helping support new demands from AI, the metaverse, and automotive applications. As a result, this will increase long-term demand for memory. "The growing demand for AI is diversifying the memory market," Lee said. "This includes products such as HBM, LLW, LPDDR5T, and CXL, all of which are expected to see increased adoption according to AI computing requirements."As the need for parallel processing in AI training and inference tasks grows, Lee predicted the demand for HBM3 and DDR5 will significantly rise. HBM's share of total DRAM revenue is expected to increase dramatically – from 11% in 2023, to 30% by 2027. Expected Growth of the GaN Power Semiconductor MarketHo-Young Cha, a professor at Hongik University and co-founder and CTO of ChipsK, highlighted that the GaN power semiconductor market is expected to see continuous growth due to its advantages over silicon-based devices. The expansion of GaN technology applications in various industries, including consumer electronics, automotive, and telecommunications, he said, will drive additional growth."The GaN power semiconductor market will grow from $180 million in 2022 to $2.04 billion by 2028," said Cha. Growth Outlook for the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Market in 2025 Clark Tseng, director of the SEMI Market Intelligence Team, projected that the short-term outlook for the global semiconductor market will gradually recover due to improvements in end-demand for major electronic product sectors and surging demand for AI chips. "The equipment and materials markets are expected to show a slight improvement in 2024, with a strong recovery anticipated in 2025," Tseng stated. He noted that the equipment market would grow by approximately 3% in 2024 from $95 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow by 15% in 2025. Regarding wafer fab materials, the silicon wafer market is expected to decline from $14.1 billion in 2023 to $13.2 billion in 2024. However, recovery is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2024, with the market projected to reach a new record of $48 billion in 2025. For more insights on Korea and the industry, attend SEMICON Korea from February 19-21, 2025 at COEX Convention Exhibit Center. Visionaries and leaders will gather to discuss the latest developments, innovations, and business opportunities within the industry. As the region’s premier microelectronics event, SEMICON Korea 2025 is expected to host 70,000 attendees, 500 exhibitors, and 200 speakers. More event information, including registration details, will be available soon.Jaegwan Shim is Senior Specialist, Marketing at SEMI.
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Silicon carbide (SiC), with its wide band gap and high thermal conductivity, is increasingly favored for semiconductor power applications across several fast-growing industries. Its ability to operate at higher voltages and frequencies enables significant efficiency gains, particularly in e-mobility, where SiC offers key advantages in size, weight, and speed compared to traditional silicon-based power devices.However, as promising as SiC is, the industry still faces critical challenges in scaling to meet growing demand. Key barriers include cost, reliability, and manufacturing capacity, all of which must be addressed for SiC to fully mature.SEMI spoke with Entegris Senior Director - Advanced Technology Engagements, Office of the CTO Mark Puttock, Ph.D., to discuss the challenges of scaling SiC power chip manufacturing from a material supplier’s perspective. Puttock shared insights ahead of his presentation at the Entegris session, Cultivating a Thriving SiC Market: Tackling Key Challenges Across the Value Chain, taking place on November 14, 2024, at SEMICON Europa in Munich, Germany. Don’t miss the opportunity to engage with experts from Entegris and other industry leaders. Registration is now open. SEMI: Global megatrends like environmental crises and AI drive the necessity for SiC power semiconductors. What is the current status? Puttock: The increasing demand for efficient power electronics — fueled by global megatrends such as vehicle electrification, environmental de-carbonization, and the rise of power-hungry AI chips — drives the necessity of wide bandgap semiconductors. SiC offers advantages of weight, size, and speed over traditional silicon (Si) solutions, which are particularly vital in automotive applications 600V and above. However, SiC chip manufacturing has not reached the maturity of silicon-based processing. Greater maturity will help reduce costs, which will accelerate adoption in the market.SEMI: What are the main challenges in scaling SiC?Puttock: Challenges in scaling SiC power chip manufacturing to high volumes are not surprising. That’s because high volume producers have not been operating long enough to resolve early-stage issues. From a material perspective, SiC is more challenging to manage compared to Si. The challenges we identify include:Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP): SiC is nearly as hard as diamond and significantly harder than Si, making it challenging to achieve a high removal rate while maintaining both planarity and low defectivity. This step is crucial toward the end of the wafering process and before the epitaxial growth of device layers.Handling: SiC is more brittle than Si, making it more susceptible to damage or breakage.Implantation: SiC is more difficult to implant than Si, requiring higher temperatures and the use of aluminum instead of boron as a P-type implant species. Additionally, it is a significant challenge to achieve a reliable aluminum source with a long and stable lifetime.Thermal Processing for Wafer Growth and Epitaxy Processes: SiC processes run hotter than Si ( 2000° C for wafering, 1500° C for epitaxial growth), demanding resilient chamber parts to achieve good lifetimes.Sustainability: Because SiC is extremely hard, the CMP process requires significant amounts of slurry. Improving slurry recycling and wastewater management continues to be a challenge.On October 29, we will address these issues in our webinar, “Challenges in Scaling SiC Power Chip Manufacturing: A Material Supplier's Perspective” This session will provide valuable insights and considerations for advancing maturity in high-volume SiC power chip manufacturing. SEMI: Can you elaborate on the challenges associated with CMP for SiC wafers? Puttock: SiC wafers are challenging to process, requiring specialized materials and methods compared to traditional silicon. Defects in the SiC wafer crystal during non-optimized CMP processing can propagate into the device epitaxial layers. This leads to yield loss, increased electrical resistance, reduced performance, and wasted power.SiC wafers must be cut, ground, lapped, and polished to create the necessary surface properties before depositing active layers. As the demand for these devices grows, optimizing the CMP process is essential to ensure the desired surface quality and planarity required for device fabrication. For a deeper understanding of these challenges, we recommend downloading our latest white paper, “Solving CMP Challenges in High-Volume SiC Production,” which covers:Achieving maximum smoothness with high removal ratesReducing the total cost of ownership Optimizing CMP slurry and pads for the unique wafer chemistry and topology of SiC wafersSEMI: What do you mean by optimizing slurry for SiC CMP?Puttock: CMP slurry typically consists of abrasive nanoparticle powder dispersed in a chemically reactive solution. The objective is to achieve a smooth, defect-free surface (less than 1 A Ra) with a high removal rate (greater than 7 µm/m).Traditionally, achieving high removal rates and smooth surfaces required two separate slurries. This approach sometimes forced SiC wafer manufacturers to choose a defect-free surface over a faster, more efficient CMP process, depending on their fab capabilities. Today, optimization allows SiC wafer manufacturers to achieve both high polishing capacity and good final surface quality using a single slurry.Additionally, while the slurry is the most critical part of the CMP process, the pad must be compatible with the application. This ensures the desired planarity while also preventing scratches or contamination of the SiC wafer surface. Research shows that optimized thermoplastic polyurethane CMP pads outperform traditional thermoset polyurethane pads. The optimized pads minimize surface damage and enhance removal rates due to their bulk hardness.SEMI: What are the future challenges for SiC devices? Puttock: SiC devices are increasingly favored for their superior energy efficiency and reduced environmental impact. However, the SiC manufacturing process presents challenges due to its high-temperature operations, which consumes significant amounts of energy and shortens the lifespan of chamber components. To address this, improving efficiency in these processes will be crucial in the coming years.Recycling is another important challenge. For example, CMP slurries present an opportunity for water recycling and conservation. At Entegris, we are committed to this issue and are actively collaborating with key industry players to enhance material circularity and prioritize sustainability in our new product development.SEMI: How is Entegris contributing to advancements in SiC technology, and what initiatives or partnerships do you have planned for the near future? Puttock: Entegris is an active member of the SEMI Global Automotive Advisory Council (GAAC) and participates in a working group focused on SiC with key industry leaders such as Volkswagen, BMW, Porsche Consulting, onsemi, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and others. Our engagement spans the entire semiconductor supply chain, collaborating with integrated device manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers in fabs worldwide. Additionally, we recently announced our latest long-term agreement with onsemi, which underscores our commitment to advancing SiC technology.SEMI: What are your expectations regarding your participation at SEMICON Europa? Puttock: SEMICON Europa is a unique platform to connect with the semiconductor and automotive ecosystems. Last year, we organized a highly successful SiC session in collaboration with SEMI at both SEMICON West and SEMICON Europa, focusing on “Connecting the Automotive Ecosystem Towards More Mature SiC Manufacturing.”This year, we will continue the discussion with industry leaders during our session, “Cultivating a Thriving SiC Market: Tackling Key Challenges Across the Value Chain.” Our goal is to provide insights and propose solutions that will enable SiC power chips to achieve their anticipated role in future technology ecosystems.We will present alongside Porsche Consulting, and the talks will be followed by a panel discussion that will explore the current state and future prospects of SiC technology in power electronics. We invite visitors to join us at the Executive Forum on Thursday, November 14, from 1:40 – 3:00 p.m. and to visit us at Silicon Saxony booth 219 in Hall C1.About Mark PuttockMark Puttock, Ph.D., is the senior director of advanced technology engagements in the office of the CTO at Entegris. He has worked in the semiconductor industry for over 30 years with a background in physics and plasma processing. As a team member of the Entegris CTO office since 2014, Mark has followed technology trends and collaborated with Entegris’ global product development teams to develop timely and differentiated new materials, chemistries, and components for all the world’s semiconductor manufacturers. Maria Daniela Perez is Communications Manager at SEMI Europe.
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