SEMICON West

When developing industry forecasts, market analysts gather data from hundreds of companies to provide actionable insights on established technologies and to identify near-term business opportunities. As a developer of new MEMS and sensor technologies for a range of commercial applications, clients often ask us, “What’s going to be hot?” Gauging the promise of emerging technologies that are five to 10 years from commercialization requires taking a different tack.History tells us that most of today’s blockbuster MEMS products were born as academic research projects. Years of hard work by entrepreneurs, funded by millions of dollars, have turned proof-of-concept research into new commercial products. To identify up-and-coming technologies, we gather information straight from the source: academic conferences and articles.Chirp Microsystems is a good proof point of our research methodology: In my 2012 report on emerging technologies, I highlighted research from UC Berkeley and UC Davis on “In-Air Ultrasonic Rangefinding and Angle Estimation Using an Array of AlN Micromachined Transducers.” Soon after publication, the authors incorporated Chirp Microsystems to commercialize their technology for gesture- and fingerprint-recognition applications.After five years of development work, Chirp’s products are entering the marketplace. In February 2018, the global supplier TDK InvenSense acquired Chirp, underscoring the company’s commercial potential. At October’s SEMI-MSIG MEMS Sensors Executive Congress in Napa, Calif., Chirp’s CEO, Dr. Michelle Kiang, held attendees rapt as she described her company’s journey from startup to wholly owned subsidiary.There’s a methodThis year, I reviewed over 100 papers from top researchers presenting noteworthy technologies at the Hilton Head Workshop on Solid-State Sensors, Actuators and Microsystems. My criteria for selection were: commercial relevance; offers a solution to a known or anticipated problem; and technology game-changers. The following caught my eye: Event-driven sensors: Cleverly designed silicon MEMS that consume no power while standing by. A triggering mechanical or thermal event closes a contact within the sensor to activate its circuitry and telemetry. These sensors leverage existing fabrication methods, so they could become commercial products within five years for event monitoring and security applications. (UT Dallas, Northeastern University). Figure: 5-bit accelerometer having zero standby power. The device is open circuit until a threshold acceleration closes a mechanical contact. Source: University of Texas at Dallas. Thin film piezoelectric resonators: Advances in PZT deposition methods and process integration with CMOS were used to create monolithic acoustic waveguides for RF filtering in 5G applications. This new filter design, using existing scalable processes, is ripe for commercialization. (Purdue University, Texas Instruments) Intra-body communications: MEMS ultrasound transceivers, made from aluminum nitride, can send data directly through flesh at Mbit/s data rate. With trends toward networks of multiple implanted or wearable medical devices, this innovation would enable medically safe, secure, intra-body wireless communication. This early-stage work still needs in vivo validation and would likely require 10 or more years for development and regulatory approval. (Northeastern University) Screen- and 3D-printed sensors: One example of many exciting innovations using screen- and 3D-printing are potentiometric nitrate soil sensors. Low-cost and biodegradable, these sensors could be spread over huge areas to monitor a farm’s soil quality. Table-top and hobbyist tools are currently used to make screen- and 3D-printed devices, so new manufacturing equipment and infrastructure must be developed before commercial production could occur. (Purdue University) Biodegradable batteries: A paper-based battery that can deliver 0.5 uW of power, ingeniously using bacterial metabolism as the electrolyte. These batteries dissolve in water and could one day be used to power temporary medical implants or biodegradable sensors. This exciting proof-of-concept prototype will require significant process development and new manufacturing infrastructure for commercialization. (SUNY Binghamton) Figure: Paper-based battery dissolves in 60 minutes after immersion in water. Source: SUNY Binghamton To read more about these technologies, please download my presentation from SEMI-MSIG’s MEMS Sensors TechXpot at SEMICON West 2018.Alissa M. Fitzgerald, Ph.D., is the founder and managing member of A.M. Fitzgerald Associates, LLC, a MEMS and sensors development company in Burlingame, CA. She has over 20 years of engineering experience in MEMS design, fabrication and product development and now advises clients on the entire cycle of product development, from business and IP strategy to manufacturing operations. She is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and currently serves as a director of the Transducer Research Foundation, sponsor of the Hilton Head Workshop. She received her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from MIT and her doctorate from Stanford University in Aeronautics and Astronautics.For more information, visit: www.amfitzgerald.com

At a Glance “Software is eating the world ... and AI is eating software.” Amir Husain, author of The Sentient Machine, at SEMICON West 2018 We’re living in a digital world where semiconductors have been taken for granted. But, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing everything – and bringing semiconductors back into the deserved spotlight. AI’s potential market of hundreds of zettabytes and trillions of dollars relies on new semiconductor architectures and compute platforms. Making these AI semiconductor engines will require a wildly innovative range of new materials, equipment, and design methodologies. Moore’s Law carried us the past 50-plus years and as we’re now stepping into the dawn of AI’s potential, we can see that the coming Cognitive Era will drive its own exponential growth curve. This is great for the world – virtually every industry will be transformed, and people’s lives will get better – and it’s fantastic for our industry. This truly is the very best time to be working in our industry. I’m excited to be at SEMI in this inflection period and at the center of the collaborative platforms that bring the electronics manufacturing supply chain together to Connect, Collaborate, and Innovate to realize the new Cognitive Era. I invite you to partner with SEMI in building the foundation for the Cognitive Era to increase the growth and prosperity of our industry. The World Wakes Up Our lives have become digital. An Amazon Echo wakes us up and answers questions about the weather and traffic. Google Maps tells us the best way to get to a meeting. Yelp finds the best nearby restaurant. A Tweet now even informs us of the latest change in government policy. It’s a digital world that we live in – and the world already takes it for granted. We in the industry know that the digital world only works because of the semiconductors we make and because of our integrated electronics manufacturing supply chain. We make the materials and equipment that, in turn, make the chips that become the beating hearts of the digital economy. But, semiconductors have been largely invisible – hidden away under and inside a smart speaker, locked deep within a phone, buried in data centers and out of view. Meanwhile, the internet companies like Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, and Facebook stole the meaning of “Tech” and were given most of the credit for our digital world. But, finally, things are changing – it’s all coming back to semiconductors! AI Changing Everything Over $400B in semiconductors were sold in 2017 – those unseen chips like hearts beating away in Apple computers, in mobile phones for online shopping and social media, and in televisions showing Netflix. Now internet companies Alphabet, Alibaba, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and others are rushing to develop their own chips. Silicon is back in the Silicon Valley! Hardware is, once again, the place to be. Why? We are now entering the epoch of Artificial Intelligence (AI) – and semiconductors, and new compute architectures, are the key to AI. At this moment, hardware, not software, is the AI enabler to make leaps in performance and to usher in new architectures to become brain-like with neural networks. Beyond major AI chip investments like Google’s (Alphabet) $300M+ program to develop its Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) chip, there’s been a surge in new chip startups and VC funding. Last year, VCs (with corporate investors) invested more than $1.5B in new AI chip startups – doubling the rate from the prior year. After years of consolidation, there is, as some have described, a “Cambrian Explosion” of semiconductor startups with names like Cerebras, Graphcore, Wave Computing, Horizon Robotics, Cambricon Technologies, and DeePhi from the US, Europe, and China. Cambricon (China) has already become the first AI chip “Unicorn” (startup valued $1B+) with a valuation of more than $2.5B after their recent Round B financing. It’s a new silicon world and a new race, as Cade Metz (The New York Times, 1/14/2018) said, “… everyone is starting from the same place: the beginning of a new market.” Winning at AI is very big business. John Kelly, SVP Cognitive Solutions and Research at IBM, in his SEMICON West keynote earlier this month, said, we’re in the era of Artificial Intelligence with more than a $2T opportunity for AI decision making support on top of the $1.5T IT business in 2025. McKinsey estimates deep learning could account for between $3.5T and $5.8T in annual value. As John Kelly presented, AI will transform entire industries – not just our personal devices and lives. The $2T AI decision making support opportunity in 2025 is projected to transform the major economy industries as follows: Source IBM Market Development Insights Analysis; Oxford economics, CapitalIQ, McKinsey Global Institute Moore’s Law describes the exponential increase in the number of transistors per area that has driven growth, and has been the engine for digital innovation, through first the computer era and then the mobility era and now into the dawn of the data era. While the Dennard scaling approach to Moore’s Law may be slowing, the data-centric era continues to drive demand and the industry continues to find new ways to pack more transistors into less volume. Chip sales are forecast to pass $0.5T in 2019 and I predict they will surpass $1T before 2030. It turns out the Smart is not enough – we must reach “Beyond Smart.” Beyond Smart – The Cognitive Era As we move further into the data-centric age, we see it is more than Big Data and AI, it is, instead, the dawn of a wholly new cognitive era. SEMICON West’s 2018 theme was “Beyond Smart” because we are standing at the inflection from sensors triggering actions (smart) to systems that learn and make decisions (cognitive). Devices are moving “beyond smart” to being “cognitive or aware.” Gary Dickerson (CEO of Applied Materials) at SEMICON West said, “… we are in the beginning of the first inning of a major inflection.” Even in the early dawn of the cognitive era, the volume of data is simply astonishing. In the last 24 months, we create more than 90% of all historic digital data. By 2025 we expect AI to generate 160 zettabytes – with 80% of that unstructured data. Moore’s Law is an exponential, but as John Kelly points out, AI’s deep learning is driving its own exponential with performance/watt increasing 2.5X each year. Source: IBM AI was the focus of SEMICON West’s Day 1 keynotes – and a common theme through much of the events programming. There was a common language in the keynotes by John Kelly, Gary Dickerson, and William Dally (Chief Scientist and SVP of Research NVIDIA), and others. We heard how AI is based on data, algorithms, and compute. I was inspired by these talks and for the potential for AI and the cognitive era. Looking ahead, I believe data + algorithms + compute + machine learning = knowledge and cognition. My vision is that this AI knowledge and cognition will be the catalyst to create new modes of systems transformations that will usher in the next Industrial Revolution. As the 4th Industrial Revolution becomes a reality, I look forward to working with others in SEMI Think Tanks to imagine the 5th Industrial Revolution – and its opportunities for our industry. I believe that it will make our lives better, healthier, more prosperous, and more fulfilled. A sentiment shared by many speakers at SEMICON West was – this is the most exciting time to be in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Many wished they were just now starting in the industry as this is the most interesting inflection and transformation ever. There is a flood of new architectures, new materials, new equipment, new processes – and a new system-based design approach to enable the Cognitive Era. We, in hardware manufacturing, are in the driver’s seat for this incredible ride. SEMI is working to help its members speed their time to better business results – and to take full advantage of the Cognitive Era and AI opportunity. At SEMICON West 2018, SEMI provided a broad and deep slate of program education and spotlighted AI expertise across the electronics manufacturing supply. In case you missed it, SEMI also provided: Seven keynotes and dozens of expert panelists Semiconductor venture funding program – problems and solutions for the ecosystem SEMI Smart Workforce Pavilion with over 600 students registered to learn about the industry Smart Pavilions including Smart Manufacturing and Smart Automotive SEMI highlighted the five key vertical application platforms where our industry needs to collaborate across the full supply chain and streamline the supply chain for efficiency. The five are: IoT, Smart Transportation, Smart Manufacturing, Smart MedTech, and Smart Data. These verticals drive huge business potential and are just one of the reasons that SEMICON West has become the gathering place of the extended electronics manufacturing supply chain. With SEMI, together we can realize the potential of the coming Cognitive Era. SEMI members can advance the industry with SEMI collective action in Workforce Development, Advocacy (public policy and regulatory), Standards to synchronize the industry, and in the many SEMI technology communities and special interest groups – to increase the global industry’s rate of growth and overall level of prosperity. For more information, please visit www.semi.org; to become a member, please visit http://www.semi.org/en/become-member-join-semi. Ajit Manocha is President and CEO of SEMI

Advances in areas from materials, packaging and testing to devices, equipment and standards must come together to enable smart factories and new capabilities in the microelectronics manufacturing supply chain. The secure transfer of information between factories is an important part of creating the “digital thread” that will give rise to higher yield, faster cycle times and reduced cost. At SEMICON West 2018, Tom Salmon, Vice President of Collaborative Technology Initiatives at SEMI, discusses his group’s work across the supply chain – including semiconductor front-end, packaging and test, as well as PCB and final product assembly – to accelerate the development of smart manufacturing. Ariana Raftopoulos is a marketing manager at SEMI.

The proliferation of chips driven by artificial intelligence and automotive will spur a record $68 billion in sales of semiconductor equipment in 2019.Building the workforce of the future is at once a challenge and opportunity for the semiconductor industry, the key to continuing the rapid pace of innovation and growth. And tariffs levied against billions of dollars of Chinese imports by the Trump administration has profound implications for SEMI members and the chip industry as a whole.Jonathan Davis, Global Vice President of Industry Advocacy at SEMI, offers insights on these key semiconductor industry issues in this interview at SEMICON West 2018. Ariana Raftopoulos is a marketing manager at SEMI.

SEMI has launched a mentoring program that pairs seasoned industry professionals with university students and professionals wanting to advance their careers. The program is designed to help tackle the semiconductor industry’s workforce shortfall and prepare the next generation of innovators. Under the program, SEMI members with years of professional experience share their knowledge with developing talent and help build their professional networks as they embark on their careers in the microelectronics industry.As the microelectronics manufacturing industry faces increasing challenges in recruiting, training and retaining a diverse pool of highly skilled talent to sustain the remarkable pace of innovation globally, SEMI has made workforce development a top strategic priority. Globally, the industry is confronted with more than 10,000 job vacancies.To help build the workforce of the future, SEMI has rolled out industry-wide programs to address a chief reason for the workforce shortage – increasing competition from other technology sectors. The initiatives include enhancing industry awareness of the industry’s critical need for talent, increasing the representation of women, and supporting young professionals and university students soon to be making important career decisions. The new SEMI Mentoring Program builds on those initiatives by guiding the next generation of innovators.With mentoring a proven method to develop talent, SEMI has contracted with Chronus – an experienced provider of a software mentoring platform tailored to support the SEMI Mentoring Program.SEMI Mentoring Program: Roles and Responsibilities This is a formal relationship in which mentors guide mentees in their professional development. The mentor will answer questions and take a personal interest in, guide, encourage, and support the mentee. The mentor will meeting monthly with the mentee and follow up as needed. The mentee will set up the first meeting to discuss professional goals, topics he or she would like to cover and timing for subsequent. Both mentor and mentee will commit to remain connected for at least six months. Frequently Asked Questions Q: How are meetings conducted?A: Mentors and mentees can meet face-to-face or virtually, but should meet for a minimum of one hour once a month for six months.Q: How are goals set?A: The mentor and the mentee agree on goals during their first meeting. The mentee is responsible for arranging meetings, preparing the agendas, and any other pre-meeting work. This will ensure that the discussions touch on the topics that matter most to the mentees.Q: What happens once the six months are up?A: You can continue an unofficial relationship if both parties agree, or you can search for a new mentor or mentee by reapplying through your mentor profile.Q: What is SEMI’s role?A: SEMI is here to help match you based off your preferences, facilitate the relationship, provide materials to guide your experience, and help resolve any program or platform related issues.Q: What are the program eligibility requirements for mentors?A: A mentor must be an employee of a SEMI member organization with a minimum of five years’ professional experience to mentor a university student, or seven years’ professional experience to mentor a developing professional.Q: What are program eligibility requirements for mentees?A: Developing Professional Program Developing professional, 0-7 years in their career Employed by a SEMI member organization University Program At minimum, a rising junior enrolled in a university program (students through PhD level accepted) Completing a STEM major Within 6 months of graduation if currently out of school and seeking employment Preferred: Interest in the microelectronics industry Q: Why be a mentee?A: Learn from an experienced industry professional and accelerate your professional development.Q: Why be a mentor?A: Being a mentor will allow you to grow as a leader while giving you the rewarding experience of guiding someone’s growth path firsthand. Join us in shaping the future of our industry by becoming a mentor or mentee. Sign up here! For more information about the program, please contact Cristina Sandoval, manager of Workforce Development, at [email protected].

Storage and memory chipmaker and SEMI China member Tsinghua Unigroup is gearing up to meet burgeoning product demand with huge investments in its manufacturing plants. But the high-tech enterprise under Tsinghua University is eyeing a much bigger prize – growth of the region’s semiconductor industry and the realization of its ambition to become a more prominent force on the global stage.Inspired by the national strategy, the Tsinghua Unigroup’s big spends include USD 24 billion in Wuhan (Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd.,) USD 30 billion in Chengdu, USD 30 billion in Nanjing and USD 100 billion in Chongqing, said Liu Hongyu, senior vice president of Tsinghua Unigroup, speaking at the SEMI China Equipment and Materials Committee meeting last month.Advanced packaging is another rich vein of opportunity the region is tapping for expansion, said Liu Hongjun, vice president of China Wafer Level CSP Co., Ltd., another SEMI China member attending the event, hosted by NAURA in Beijing. Hongjun sees strong growth for Fan-in, Fan-out, FCBGA, 2.5D and 3DIC, with Fan-out out front. Liang Sheng, administrative commission director at BDA, a business advisory firm supporting high-technology manufacturing in the E-Town economic development zone, pointed to 5G chips and smart, networked electric automobiles as drivers of the next growth phase of Beijing’s integrated circuit (IC) industry.Global tailwinds are lifting China’s semiconductor industry and the region’s hopes, with SEMI and major industry analysts raising their semiconductor industry growth projects for 2018 to between 9 percent and 16 percent. According to SEMI’s latest market report, global semiconductor industry manufacturing equipment revenue reached USD 17 billion in the first quarter of 2018, logging all-time highs after jumping 12 percent from the previous quarter and 30 percent year-over-year. Korea was the top-performing region at USD 6.26 billion, followed by China at USD 2.64 billion.Tighter integration with the rest of the global semiconductor industry is critical to the growth of China’s chip sector, and SEMI China is squarely focused on this assimilation, said SEMI China president Lung Chu. The spearhead of this effort is the SEMI Innovation Investment Platform (SIIP) China, established by SEMI China last year to help grow China’s pool of skilled workers, promote advanced technology, generate industry capital, and expand China’s semiconductor industry while developing stronger connections with chip sectors in other regions. To strengthen ties with other regions, SIIP China will stage a number of innovation and investment forums this year including Chinese Night at SEMICON West (July 10-12) and a SIIP China Forum in Silicon Valley (July 15). In August, representatives from the Korea chip industry will visit counterparts in China (August), and a China delegation will travel to Japan for meetings (October). SIIP China is also strengthening the region’s links with Germany and Israel as SEMI serves as a crucial bridge between China’s semiconductor sector and the global industry.At the invitation of Shanghai authorities and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, SEMI China in November will join the China International Export Import Exposition in Shanghai, an event that will underscore China’s commitment to the openness and cooperation of its semiconductor industry with the international chip community. As part of the exposition, SEMI will work with the Ministry of Commerce and domestic chip manufacturers to begin development of a special integrated circuit (IC) zone. SEMI China members are welcome to participate.With workforce development no less vital to the future of China’s semiconductor industry, the Equipment Materials Committee offered potential solutions to the industry’s talent gap. Measures included targeting university students and engineers with industry lectures and courses in key cities, campus recruiting, talent training that members said they are willing to help SEMI coordinate and stage and, much like the push to better integrate China with the global semiconductor industry, mobilizing member resources around a campaign to polish the image of the industry to make it more attractive to students and young workers. Members of the SEMI China Equipment Material Committee gathered at NAURA in Beijing in June for a warm and lively discussion about global semiconductor industry cooperation and growing China’s semiconductor sector.Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.

Standing-room only keynote speeches. A future awash in data amassed by transformative technologies and applications, with semiconductors at their core. Smart everything: Cars, medicine, manufacturing, workforce, you name it. The sheer numbers impressed as a record lineup of SEMICON West keynote speakers offered a glowing portrait of the future: The semiconductor industry stands on the cusp of a breakout expansion. Standing and seated shoulder-to-shoulder in the packed-to-gills opening keynote, the audience learned, indeed, that the best was yet to come: “This is the best SEMICON West, ever,” observed SEMI CEO Ajit Manocha. Here’s a glimpse of the keynotes by the numbers, starting with the luckiest of all. 7 – The number of keynotes – among the brightest lights in technology – sharing their visions of the future through the lens of breakthrough technologies that are nearly ready to make their indelible mark. Dozens of expert panelists also weighed in at SEMICON West, the annual U.S. flagship microelectronics gathering in San Francisco. 90 – The percentage of all data ever generated has been created in just the past two years as the cloud mushrooms with tweets, texts, emails, Facebook posts, YouTube videos, medical records and all manner of business information, noted Bill Bottoms, president and CEO of Third Millennium Test Solutions. In the years ahead, an almost unimaginable wealth of data will require analysis by artificial intelligence (AI) embedded in semiconductors to enable applications that go well beyond smart. 12-18 – That’s how many months it will take for data volume to double, predicted John Kelly III, IBM’s Senior VP, Cognitive Solutions. And it will double again and again, every 12-18 months. Kelly foresees a scale of growth “that will dwarf previous eras of computing … the number of opportunities is enormous.” Kelly’s four decades in computing gave considerable weight to his point that “in the industry, there has never been a more exciting point in time than today.” First – Technology is being re-born. Using baseball lingo, several speakers noted that we are just in “the first inning,” “the top half of the first inning” or “the beginning of the first inning” to make clear in the most emphatic terms the duration of prosperity that lies ahead for the industry. AI embedded in chips and demand for real-time analysis of AI data will be its fuel. As SEMI Americas president Dave Anderson observed with a smile, “We all know how long baseball games can go.” Third – That’s the current wave of machine learning the world is now experiencing, according to Sandia National Laboratories’ Principal Member Conrad James. Computers are now capable of solving many increasingly complex problems on their own, with no human intervention necessarily required, he said. 1000x – As spectacularly fast as computing power already is today, the industry will need to double that the rate of performance in the years ahead, predicted Applied Materials president and CEO Gary Dickerson. Demand for this herculean processing capacity will spur a “tremendous focus on innovation” among SEMI members, their customers and their customers’ customers. 5 to 15 – The remarkable amount of silicon that power today’s mobile devices will be overshadowed by the chips – equivalent in computing capacity to 5 to 15 cell phones – that will be the engine of self-driving and other features in future automobiles, predicted Pierre Ferragu, New Street Research Managing Partner, during the SEMI Bulls and Bears session. Automobiles with this souped-up computing capacity will sell in the millions worldwide in the years ahead, generating never-before-seen opportunities for the chip industry, he noted. 10,000 – It’s not just cars. Ten thousand is the number of sensors that will be built just into the wings of new Airbus A380-1000 aircraft, AMD CTO Mark Papermaster explained during his keynote. 10 terabits – The staggering amount of Facebook data uploaded daily in to the cloud, Papermaster noted. 1 Trillion – SEMI’s 2020 forecast that the industry will reach $500 billion in revenues by 2020 was eclipsed by one analyst, speaking at the SEMI Market Symposium on the first day of the event, predicted that the industry would top $1 trillion in the foreseeable future. SEMI’s Manocha later added that $1 trillion in industry revenue is possible by 2030, “maybe sooner.” 1 (sexy) coda – Coders are hip and software applications are the apple of the world’s eye. Even the most casual mobile device user knows that software apps makes it whirl. But “hardware is becoming sexy again,” said Applied Materials’ Dickerson, adding that equipment and other semiconductor hardware developed by SEMI members will enable the next great wave of global economic growth. Scott Stevens, SEMI

Powerful winds of change are re-shaping the semiconductor industry as it flexes and re-positions to power a new wave of growth on the back of emerging applications. Today, the industry is thriving, with growth expected to continue through 2019 even as Moore’s Law – the trusty doubling of transistors roughly every two years – begins to pump the brakes. Product mix and production technology are shifting as the dominant smartphone and PC markets, having seen their growth peaks, start to give way to large markets with relatively low semiconductor penetration, such as automotive.What’s more, new potentially ubiquitous technologies and platforms such as AI, blockchain and smart manufacturing are redefining market dynamics and the semiconductor ecosystem that underlies them.Troublingly, the most significant threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are not of its own making. Macroeconomic trends and trade policy disputes loom.These were some of the key takeaways from the SEMI Market Symposium kicking off SEMICON West in San Francisco this week. Following is a deeper look.Semiconductor MarketThe consensus view, reflected in forecasts presented by Clark Tseng of SEMI and Bob Johnson of Gartner, is that the semiconductor industry could top $500 billion in 2019 after reaching $400 billion in 2017. According to Gartner, smartphones and PCs will continue to account for large parts of the market, but will be displaced as major drivers of market growth by the emergence of industrial, automotive and, to a lesser extent, storage, from 2017 to 2022. Johnson noted that while communications and data processing applications drive logic device demand, average sales prices (ASPs) are a bigger contributor to revenue growth than unit growth.Leading-edge processors are a big part of the ASP picture, with equipment costs increasing ~20 percent per node. One challenge is that as Moore’s Law loses steam, leading logic producers are increasingly going their own way with new production technology. The volatile DRAM market – now in a “super cycle,” according to Tseng, and expected to peak in 2019 – has been stoking memory market growth.Initially, supply shortages fueled memory price increases as three of the four leading memory makers invested in flash rather than DRAM capacity. However, memory prices have been more recently been lifted by technology complexity, particularly as DRAM has moved to 3D architectures. The good news is that pricing, at long last, appears to be driven by value.Automotive MarketWith automotive accounting for less than 10 percent of semiconductor demand, there is room for growth. Rudy Burger of Woodside Partners noted that while the end market for automobiles is growing slowly, at 3 percent CAGR, the market size is nearing 100 million units. In market segments such as electric vehicles, the semiconductor content exceeds $1,000 but can be much higher.For example, the BMW i3 sports over $4,000 in semiconductor content. Burger said connectivity, autonomous driving and shared mobility services are also key opportunities for semiconductors to deepen their penetration in automobiles. For instance, the auto market for cameras, is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2017 to $6 billion in 2022.On average, high-end vehicles feature over $1,000 in semiconductor content, whereas low-end vehicles hover in the $400 range, said Anand Srinivasan of Bloomberg. Because the automotive market is segmented by function or subsystem, with different suppliers focusing on different areas, there is little supply concentration. Srinivasan also pointed out that because of significant differences in their objectives, automotive safety and automation systems should be developed separately.BlockchainThe chief benefit of blockchain is the trust it begets among all parties to a digital transaction through four fundamental features, said David Treat of Accenture: The tracking of provenance (knowing who has touched data, and what has happened to it) Tamper evidence (knowing if someone has tried to change the data) Control (which data elements to share with which parties) Security at the data element level While most of the hype over blockchain focuses on tokenized assets and ledgers (bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies), the fundamental application in the semiconductor industry is sharing trusted access to reference data at the data element level. This ability to provide shared trust can reduce costs throughout the supply chain and across enterprises. For example, future blockchain implementations will offer a full ecosystem view to any supply chain participant. While blockchain has typically been deployed through centralized control or platforms, peer consortia, such as SEMI, could help weave the benefits of blockchain through various ecosystems by enabling equipment and material suppliers, device manufacturers, designers and system integrators to share business and technical information securely and, if desired, anonymously.Global and Macroeconomic TrendsThe biggest threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are exogenous. After a decade of steady recovery since the financial crisis, the global economy appears to be heading for a slowdown. Duncan Meldrum of Hilltop Economics made the case that the global economy is at or just past the peak of the business cycle, and semiconductor equipment is past the peak.A key indicator of a looming recessionary is the movement toward an inverted yield curve, in which long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates – a phenomena that could materialize this year or next.The increasingly heated trade climate, marked by high-stakes confrontations between the U.S. and China, threatens complex supply chain arrangements, though mercurial policy statements could do even more harm than stiffer trade tariffs. Underscoring competing interests between the U.S. and China and the unpredictability of their relations, Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors pointed out that, in 2019, 60 percent of all semiconductors are expected to be used in China, deepening the dependency of several U.S. semiconductor companies on China.Paul Semenza, for SEMI Industry Research and Statistics

White House-led panel to address U.S. goal to lead in development of next-generation microelectronicsSEMICON West next week will host a White House-led discussion of the anticipated national leadership strategy for semiconductors, a multi-agency initiative led by top U.S. government national security and economic organizations.Next Wednesday, July 11, a panel of U.S. officials representing agencies involved in leading the strategy will address federal research and development (R D), investment and acquisition priorities aimed at ensuring the U.S. remains the global leader in the semiconductor industry.As global economic trends and technologies such as artificial intelligence evolve, and foreign governments increasingly lure microelectronics manufacturing investments overseas, the U.S. strategy for manufacturing advanced semiconductors and driving research and development (R D) in technology innovation has become an economic priority.The White House selected SEMICON West, organized by SEMI, as the site for the discussion and this urgent call to action because of the event’s central role in bringing together critical industries across the global electronics supply chain. The multi-agency panel will outline activities and new policies under development to ensure U.S. strategic leadership in microelectronics, including focused investment in innovations key to the next generation of devices for commercial and government use. The initiative also includes public-private partnerships to accelerate the capabilities of advanced semiconductors for critical applications such as artificial intelligence (AI), cyber, secure communications, the internet of things (IoT) and big data analytics.MEDIA WHO WISH TO ATTEND MUST CONTACT IN ADVANCE SCOTT STEVENS AT +1.512.288.4050 TO OBTAIN ACCESS BADGES PANEL: National Strategy for Semiconductor and Microelectronic Innovation TIME AND DATE: 10:30 to 11:30 a.m., Wednesday, July 11 LOCATION: Yerba Buena Theater, 700 Howard St., San Francisco MODERATOR: Dr. Lloyd Whitman, Principal Assistant Director, Physical Sciences and Engineering, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy PANELISTS: Dr. Sankar Basu, Program Director, Computer and Information Science and Engineering, National Science Foundation Dr. Eric W. Forsythe, Flexible Electronics Team Leader, U.S. Army Research Laboratory Dr. Jeremy Muldavin, Deputy Director of Defense Software Microelectronics Activities, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Systems Engineering Dr. Robinson Pino, Acting Research Division Director, Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Office of Science, Department of Energy SEMICON West is organized by SEMI Americas to connect more than 2,000 member companies and 1.3 million professionals worldwide to advance the technology and business of electronics manufacturing. SEMICON West is celebrating its 47th year as the flagship event for the semiconductor industry. Find more at www.semiconwest.org.MEDIA CONTACTS:Mike Hall, SEMI Global, +1.408.943.7988Scott Stevens, for SEMI Americas, +1.512.288.4050

New metrology and inspection technologies and new analysis approaches made possible by improving compute technology offer solutions to finding the increasingly subtle variations in materials and subsystems that meet specifications but still cause defects on the wafer. More collaboration across the supply chain is helping too. SEMICON West programs on materials and subsystems will address these issues. New metrology approaches needed to deal with process margin challenges As device process margins shrink and subtler materials variations cause unwanted deviations, the need for better monitoring of both surface and sub-surface material variations is driving a trend towards “metro-spection” – the convergence of metrology and inspection. “Device process margins have eroded to the point that traditional metrology strategies and techniques are no longer viable for controlling yield and parametric performance,” says Nanometrics Vice President Robert Fiordalice, who will speak in the materials program at SEMICON West. “Limited sampling capability, low throughput, insufficient sensitivity or the destructive nature of the techniques can often become problems. What’s more, deviations in material characteristics are not always determined by the initial quality of the material, but often arise from variations during the integration of the materials.” One new type of inline tool or line monitoring technology is Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, traditionally used in quality control or tool characterization. Better sensitivity and higher throughput now enable rapid analysis and feedback for on-the-fly detection of subtle deviations in film properties that may compromise device performance or yield. More advanced analytics will help extract new information from old metrologyMore expensive metrology may not be required to identify subtle variations in in-spec materials that cause wafer defects. Today’s advanced compute capabilities now enable more sophisticated analysis of existing data and the identification of small but significant variations in raw materials and finished goods. The figure of merit (FoM) values presented in certificate of analysis (CoA) reports miss subtle variations in raw material properties. Of particular note is the reduction of molecular weight distributions to a mean, and standard deviation, whereas variations in the tails are associated with pattern defects. Advanced compute capabilities now allow the industry to step beyond the FoM in favor of more holistic measures, enabling predictive analysis of resist chemical variations associated with specific pattern defects. Source: JSR Micro“We often don’t need to find a new measure, but just a new way of looking at what we measure now,” says Jim Mulready, vice president of global quality assurance at JSR Micro. Mulready will speak in the SEMICON West program on materials defectivity issues. “The certificate of analysis reduces multiple measurements to a single figure of merit. But if we ignore all that raw data, we miss a chance to learn. One of our sayings in quality is ‘Customers don’t feel the average, they feel the variation.’ In many electronic materials, the quality of the raw material can have a big impact on the final performance, but the types of analysis needed to look at the tails of the distribution of these measures (such as molecular weight) in detail used to be really hard to do. Now it’s becoming increasingly straightforward and affordable.” Mulready says tools now available in the data processing sector enable the identification of subtle variations in materials that can cause defects on the wafer. These tools use methods like detailed subtractions of chromatography curves of polymer raw materials or analysis of tails of distributions of molecular weights. “Our job now is to drive these kinds of more sophisticated data analysis back into our chemical supply chain as well,” says Mulready. “We must work more closely with our suppliers to integrate their raw materials into our products. The reason the JSRs of the world exist is as a safety valve to reduce the variation from the chemical industry before it gets to the fab.”Continued collaboration with equipment suppliers required While the industry has been talking about the need for tighter collaboration between materials suppliers and equipment manufacturers for years, it still doesn’t always happen. “The material supplier and the equipment maker are tied together like kids in a three-legged race when we deliver an integrated system for consistent on-wafer performance,” says Cristina Chu, TEL/NEXX director of strategic business development, another speaker in the materials program. “When we introduce changes to the tool hardware, we need to make sure it doesn’t upset the system. Similarly, we need the material supplier to send a bottle over when a new chemistry formulation is under development. If a new chemistry runs into problems in the field, it will take much more time for both of us to fix it at the customer site. The toolmaker can provide a slightly different perspective on applications, while being more objective than a customer on how the formulation performs compared to earlier versions.”Regular and ongoing collaboration between chemistry suppliers and toolmakers enables the highest quality system solution to reach the customer. Chu notes that her team tries to maintain consistent collaborations with material suppliers across changes in organizations as the business environment changes. “For consistent on-wafer capabilities, we need a consistent collaboration process with chemistry suppliers. We need to meet with materials providers at a regular cadence throughout their development process. We need to check back with them as we scale up results from the coupon to the wafer level and to work out the kinks in the integrated solution together. The quality and consistency of our combined performance at the customer depends on ensuring the quality and consistency of our development and evaluation process as well.”Fabs and subsystems suppliers look to pilot data sharing program to improve process margins With ever tighter process margins, subtle variations in parameters that don’t appear in the specifications are also compromising results on the wafer, and neither the fab nor the supplier alone has the full information needed to improve performance. To help, a SEMI standards group is developing a protocol for a pilot program to standardize and automate some data sharing.The fab knows that performance is best with a particular parameter value, and knows when performance fluctuates, but often faces a black box problem with no way of knowing what exactly is wrong. In the rush to get the tool back up, the fab engineers may not get around to emailing the supplier about the issue for some time. The subsystems supplier, on the other hand, may know the cause of the variation, but likely has no way of knowing the critical parameters or ideal target values for the fab’s process. “In order for engineers to have constructive conversations about how to improve performance, we all need to exchange more information,” says Eric Bruce, Samsung Austin diffusion engineer, and co-chair of the SEMI Standards initiative addressing the issue, who will speak in the subsystems program at SEMICON West. A potential solution could be to create a standard and automated process to share particular data, agreed to in the purchasing contract, whereby the subsystems supplier shares more information about their parameters with the fab, and the fab in return gives feedback on what parameters work best to drive improved performance. The best place to start will likely be on parts that do not contain core yield-related IP, but where usage and lifetime information is useful.“We’re looking for people to participate in a pilot program to work together with suppliers to try sharing some information to improve performance,” says Bruce. “There’s a lot of this sharing in the backroom anyway, but this could make it fast and automated, and make everyone’s engineering job a lot easier.”Paula Doe, SEMI