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SEMICON West

New system-on-chip (SoC) devices are driving new memory architectures and photonic interfaces, while specialized new intellectual property (IP) requires analysis down to the nanometer and atomic levels because of single nanometer process nodes. According to Babak Taheri, CTO and EVP of products at Silvaco, a leading EDA Software, semiconductor IP company, a member of SEMI and the ESD Alliance, a SEMI Strategic Association Partner, design technology co-optimization and proven IP are required for this analysis.Taheri recently discussed atoms to systems in next-generation SoC designs with Nanette Collins ahead of ES Design West, co-located with SEMICON West, July 9-11 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco.ESD Alliance: For years now, the assumption is that each new chip design is more complex than the last. Why are the latest SoC designs even more complex than before?Taheri: New SoC devices for mobile phones, automobiles, intelligent edge nodes, big data compute and storage are adopting artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. This is driving new compute, data flow, as well as memory architectures that are bandwidth-limited and some require photonic interfaces.One common denominator in present SoC design are the numerous blocks of IP. On average, over 85% of these blocks are reused. It’s cost-prohibitive to make these chips over and over again with new IP. According to some estimates, 90% of IP used in an SoC design by 2025 will be reused – only 10% is new technologies. That 10% is significant.ESD Alliance: How so?Taheri: Complex new technologies including flash memory, other advanced non-volatile memory technologies such as MRAM, RRAM and SoCs such as NVIDIA’s Xavier and Apple’s A12 use and reuse design IP at the architectural level.New technologies mean new materials and new processes. Single nanometer process nodes require specialized new IP that needs to be simulated and analyzed down to the nanometer and atomic levels.ESD Alliance: Does the atomic level changes the design equation?Taheri: Yes, it does. Designers need to be able to simulate at the atomic level and understand properties of these materials, and how they behave in at-process and at-device levels. They need be able to simulate the material's nanometer geometries, how molecules behave and how they interact for device operations. When they put together a process and a device, they need to know how the pieces behave and simulate before production.In other words, they run quite a few design experiments and quite a bit of simulation before they finalize the circuits and devices to silicon to save money.ESD Alliance: It’s obvious design automation will continue to have a vital role in design.Taheri: Yes, absolutely. Design technology co-optimization (DTCO) using TCAD solutions and proven design IP are needed to address the span from architecture to device and process physics. The importance of simulation, emulation and design technology co-optimization, along with fully verified and proven IP for SoC design, cannot be overstated. As designers generate devices and processors, they take that up to circuit-level simulation and high-level simulation, schematic capture, extractions and back annotation. They can go from atoms to simulating systems to the ability to do that under the same umbrella in order to get better chips, better yield and lower cost.Taheri’s talk Next Generation of SoC Design: From Atoms to Systems will be part of the Meet the Experts More than Moore session Tuesday, July 9, at 11:30 a.m. at the ES Design West SMART Design Pavilion. SEMICON West attendees are invited to Moscone Center’s South Hall to learn more about electronic system and semiconductor design and its links to the electronic product manufacturing and supply chain. Register for ES Design West or SEMICON West.Babak Taheri is Silvaco’s CTO and EVP of products, has more than 25 years of design experience. His current role managing Silvaco’s Technology CAD (TCAD), electronic design automation (EDA) and IP product divisions makes him an expert on what’s needed for the design of next-generation system-on-chips (SoCs). Previously, he was the CEO and president of IBT working with investors, private equity firms, and startups on M A, technology and business diligence. Babak received his Ph.D. in biomedical engineering from the University of California Davis with Bachelor of Science degrees in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and Neurosciences. He has published more than 20 articles and holds 28 issued patents.Nanette Collins is a public relations representative for the Electronic System Design Alliance.
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According to market research and strategy consulting firm Yole Développement (Yole), the total market size of MEMS, sensors and actuators will double from $48 billion in 2018 to $93 billion in 2024.[i] The consumer market will continue to drive volume, with applications such as smartphones making up for in volume what they lack in average selling price (ASP). Stronger demand in automotive, biomedical/health, industrial, and voice-first applications (such as smart speakers) will support this upward trajectory. With so much growth ahead of us, how will the design and manufacture of MEMS keep pace with industry demand for higher levels of innovation and integration, lower cost and lower power, smaller footprints, and faster design cycles — all while meeting acceptable price points?We turned to a handful of MEMS manufacturing experts from SEMI-MSIG who will join us at SEMICON West 2019, July 9-11 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, to explore the complexities of keeping pace with market demand for MEMS over the next decade.Address the Design GapMentor GM, ICDS Division Greg Lebsack and SoftMEMS President Mary Ann Maher see tremendous progress in the manufacturing supply chain for MEMS. At the same time, they acknowledge the significant gap that still exists in design capability for creating the billions of interconnected sensors required for future applications. Greg and Mary Ann will dive into the standards, ecosystem requirements and collaborative design solutions that will allow the micro-sensors industry to meet demand for next-generation wearables, Internet of Things (IoT) products and medical devices.Get Collaborative with Greg and Mary Ann: Addressing the Design Gap to Enable Next Generation Sensor-Based Products, SEMICON West, TechTALKS South, Thursday, July 11, 2019, 10:35-11:00 a.m. Register today.Get to a Really Big NumberFrom thousands of sensors and actuators in a single airplane to hundreds in a single car or a piece of factory equipment to the twenty-plus that ship in each of the hundreds of millions of the world’s smartphones, we aren’t even close to reaching the saturation point for these intelligent devices. SPTS Technologies EVP GM David Butler isn’t living on the Spaceship Enterprise (or the Millenium Falcon, come to think of it) when he says that we are going to get to a trillion sensors. It is going to happen. The questions are: how and when?Connect with David: Enabling the Age of a Trillion Sensors, SEMICON West, TechTALKS South, Thursday, July 11, 2019, 11:00-11:25 a.m. Register today.Shift to Automotive-GradeDemand for optical sensing technologies such as LIDAR is shifting sensor manufacturing requirements from consumer- to automotive-grade, with its enhanced lifetimes, temperature cycling and higher performance specifications. To meet demand, manufacturers are turning to wafer-level processing, since it complies with the hermetic sealing and dew-point control required for the more rigorous automotive-grade applications. EV Group Business Development Director Thomas Uhrmann, Ph.D., will provide an overview of the steps for manufacturing optical elements, including integration with CMOS circuitry, as he offers a window into the future of automotive packaging for sensors.Tune in with Thomas: Future Manufacturing Requirements for Automotive and Photonics Sensing, SEMICON West, TechTALKS South, Thursday, July 11, 2019, 11:25-11:50 a.m. Register today. Measure Twice, Cut OnceFaster time-to-market, improved device yield, and greater productivity in high-volume manufacturing are increasingly critical requirements for MEMS manufacturers. When a single manufacturing error can cost hundreds of thousands if not a million or more dollars — as well as months of development time — designers can save both time and cost by employing an integrated approach to MEMS design. Lam Research Sr. Director of Strategic Marketing David Haynes will explain how simulation, verification and process modeling can address MEMS-specific engineering challenges such as multi-physics interactions, process variations, MEMS + IC integration, and MEMS + package interaction. Using the right tools before committing to actual fabrication can make or break a project.Get Conceptual (and Practical) with David: Enabling Better MEMS from Concept to High-Volume Production, SEMICON West, TechTALKS South, Thursday, July 11, 2019, 11:50 a.m.-12:15 p.m. Register today.Navigate a Dynamic Foundry LandscapeWe’re still living in a one product-one process world when it comes to MEMS manufacturing. This makes bringing a new device to market both time-consuming and expensive. These challenges aside, the functional capabilities of MEMS, combined with small-footprint and low-power options, have made MEMS increasingly popular. How are market dynamics in MEMS manufacturing evolving to accommodate both demand for high-volume, lower-cost products such as MEMS microphones as well as high-value, lower-volume products such as biomedical devices, IoT products and industrial sensors? Rogue Valley Microdevices Founder CEO Jessica Gomez will explain how foundry consolidation through acquisition, collaboration with other ecosystem players, and specialization in vertical markets such as biomedical or optical are some of the approaches that are transforming the MEMS foundry landscape.Join the Evolution with Jessica: Consolidation, Collaboration, Specialization: How Will MEMS Fabs Manage Changing Dynamics, TechTALKS Stage South, Thursday, July 11, 2019, 12:15-12:40 p.m. Register today.i“Status of the MEMS Industry report,” Yole Développement (Yole), 2019 Edition.Maria Vetrano is a public relations consultant at SEMI.
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Would you buy your next hotdog in parts, from un-coordinated suppliers? For example: Get the bun from a baker, the sausage from a butcher, mustard and/or ketchup and veggies from the nearest supermarket? If yes, you may find the sausage being too small, the veggies too big for the bun, and, when you finally finished adding mustard/ketchup and start eating, you may “enjoy” a cold sausage on a soggy bun!This “hotdog example” is just a very simple way to highlight the advantages of a well-coordinated semiconductor supply chain. What may be a few dollars and cents wasted in this hotdog purchase, can become millions of dollars lost to delays and inefficiencies during the roll-out of a new electronic system.Complexity is Increasing the ChallengeThe very innovative semiconductor industry is continuing to develop more complete and complex building blocks for electronic system solutions, with the intent of making our customers’ lives easier. However, every new technology takes increasingly more time for technical and business interfaces to mature before all the semiconductor supply chain members can serve customers in a smooth, efficient and cost-effective manner. In particular, coordination between design and manufacturing has always turned out to be in the critical path.SEMI, the manufacturers’ trade organization, and the Electronic System Design (ESD) Alliance, representing electronic design automation (EDA) tools vendors, developers of intellectual property (IP = ready-made building blocks for ICs) and IC design service providers, both recognized these challenges. Late in 2018, these two industry organizations decided to jointly address this painful, costly and often a very frustrating, yet critical path and became Strategic Association Partners, The goal is to establish a well-coordinated semiconductor supply chain.To make the value propositions of this partnership highly visible and demonstrate the first joint accomplishments, SEMI’s well-known SEMICON West conference and, in its first year, ES Design West, will be conveniently co-located in San Francisco’s Moscone Center from July 9 to 11, 2019. The synchronized schedules and geographic proximity of these events not only outlines the multi-faceted interdependence of manufacturing and design but encourages and enables conference attendees to do, what previously would have been viewed as “forming cross-border relationships.” It’s a new word now — please join the path to success and expand your network!Navigating SEMICON West and ES Design WestJust in case you are not yet planning to come to San Francisco early July, please check the Agendas-at-a-Glance for SEMICON West and ES Design West, to see how broad and valuable these parallel conferences are for your business. In addition, every customer, partner and semiconductor industry supplier can, from July 9 –11, walk from one conference section to the other, arrange face-to-face meetings, in dedicated meeting rooms, with representatives from both camps and discuss, from the first project planning step to the final production ramp-up, the many topics that need to be coordinated across parts or the entire supply chain to minimize delays and/or cost over-runs.Who Will Lead the Discussions?Conference attendees can, in addition to meeting many important supply chain partners face-to-face, hear about the latest technologies and market trends from key executives in our industry. Featured speakers are: David Pellerin, Head of Global Business Development, Amazon Web Services Lisa Su, President, and CEO, AMD Gary Dickerson, President, and CEO, Applied Materials Laurent Le Faucheur, Principal Engineer, Digital Signal Processing and Machine Learning, Arm, Ltd. Renee St. Amant, Ph.D., Research Engineer in Emerging Technologies and US Innovator of the Year, ARM Dean Kamen, President DEKA Research Development, Founder First and First Global Jeffrey Welser, Ph.D., Vice President and Lab Director, IBM Research-Almaden Dean Drako, President and CEO, IC Manage, Inc. Oreste Donzella, Sr. VP Chief Marketing Officer, KLA Corporation Prakash Narain, President, and CEO, Real Intent, Inc. Aart de Geus, Chairman, and Co-CEO, Synopsys, Inc. Manish Pandy, Fellow, Synopsys, Inc. Nate Baxter, General Manager, Development and Production Group, TEL US Like in previous years, SEMICON West and ES Design West offer a range of special features, addressing Smart Manufacturing, Smart Transportation, Smart MedTech and Smart Workforce development in dedicated pavilions as well as an AI Design Forum. Also, the many exhibitors from both camps will give conference attendees convenient opportunities to get to know new supply chain partners and/or refresh long-term business relationships. Search for the exhibitors you want to meet early July here. Questions to Ask for a Well-Coordinated Semiconductor Supply ChainIf I may, I would like to ask my many friends in the manufacturing camp to spend some time in the ES Design West section and ask the exhibitors a few questions, like: What can you do to get me to profit faster? To reduce development and unit cost? To improve yield, product quality, and reliability? When can you visit my team to discuss how your company can contribute to our goals?Vice versa, I would like to encourage my friends in the design camp to spend time in the SEMICON West section and ask exhibitors what their companies offer. When talking to manufacturers of IC, passive components or circuit boards, assembly and test houses, please ask very specific questions like: How can we help you reduce iterations between you and your customers? How can we help to improve IC test programs? How can we increase the throughput of your manufacturing equipment? How can we apply machine learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to minimize equipment downtime, improve yields and/or shorten production ramp-up?I can assure you that you’ll not only win great friends “across the border” but will be very impressed by the expertise you’ll find in the other camp and the willingness for and benefits of cross-border cooperation.I look forward to meeting you at SEMICON West and ES Design West. Also, if your schedule allows, mark your calendars for the June 12 MEPTEC Luncheon at SEMI in Milpitas, June 18 for the GSA’s Silicon Summit in Santa Clara and June 25 to 27 for the IMAPS SiP Conference in Monterey, CA. Hope to see you at one or all of these important events!Article originally published in 3D InCites. Herb Reiter is president of eda 2 asic Consulting.
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Imagine a world where there are chips in about everything we touch on a daily basis. It is not hard to do with semiconductors already at the core of many leading-edge electronic devices. These sophisticated chips are hidden from sight, but their functions are vitally significant to our daily lives.Manufactured in multibillion-dollar facilities, the production process of chips is one of the riskiest, costliest, and most technically complex feats in business. Consider the difficulties of managing contaminants during device manufacturing: A single speck of dust on a lens could cause the entire output of the plant to be scrapped.For years, these exotic fabrication facilities, called fabs, have been packing more efficiency into ever smaller chips. As new technologies continue to emerge, chip manufacturers face constant pressure to continually refine and improve their operations to meet the challenge of rising device performance and yield goals. Fab managers must optimize tool performance, improve fabrication techniques, safely handle toxic materials and design better integration flows. Layer on top of those requirements customer demand for greater innovation and quality of service, it can be difficult for manufacturers to handle everything on their own while consistently meeting necessary requirements.Align for CollaborationWith the help of the Fab Owners Alliance (FOA), a SEMI technology community, manufacturers and their suppliers don’t have to travel this road alone. Membership in this international group allows semiconductor and MEMS fab managers and industry suppliers to come together to solve common non-competitive manufacturing issues and improve business results.Founded in 2004, the group consists of 25+ device manufacturers (DMs) with over 120 semiconductor manufacturing facilities and 60+ solution providers (SPs) who supply equipment and services. Through quarterly meetings, study teams, benchmarking surveys, case studies and online forums, FOA successfully provides a collaborative, non-competitive platform to the fab management and operations community. FOA members enjoying an engaging discussion and networking event during the recent Q1 2019 Collaborative Forum at the Double Tree Resort in Scottsdale, Arizona One of the most popular FOA platforms is the annual Collaborative Forum early in the year. The goal is to bring together DMs and SPs from around the world for an open dialogue under one roof. For two days, they share success stories and discuss issues facing their fabs and the industry in general and develop collective strategies to address them.The success stories are particularly engaging as they accentuate the value and benefits of FOA membership. Presented as case studies, these stories outline how the DMs and SPs work together to improve fab efficiency and increase yields. Often, the ideas for the case studies are conceived during networking events, fab tours and programs organized by the FOA.The case studies shared at the 2019 Collaborative Forum, held at the Double Tree Resort in Scottsdale, Arizona, February 13-14, 2019, illustrate the power of collaboration within the FOA. Following are a few examples.Scheduling System Implementation Broadcom was facing a steep ramp when it decided to engage with FPS, an INFICON product line. In addition, the manual decision making, and limited real-time visibility of factory data was negatively impacting their production in its 150mm and 200mm environment. By deploying an integrated Smart Manufacturing software solution and its digital twin, FPS was able to retrofit Broadcom’s manual factory with automated decision-making capabilities.This solution offered many benefits. Constraint tool utilization increased by more than 15 percent. The automated WIP management system also eliminated many manual wafer handling issues such as lost lots, WIP storage constraints, building transfers, and time spent looking for lots. Pushing Tool Performance BoundariesAs tools in the 200mm space are hard to find, GLOBALFOUNDRIES is always looking to squeeze every wafer out of its existing resources. To drive continuous improvement and increase equipment throughput, GLOBALFOUNDRIES leveraged MAX’s knowledge with Machine Rate Models. Together, they were able to employ a modelling technique that helped them model key toolsets and develop actions to increase intrinsic machine rate performance.Based on this knowledge, 10 capacity constraints were selected, and speed models were developed for all of them. This win-win collaboration allowed GLOBALFOUNDRIES to find some real opportunities that translated into CAPEX and cost savings. On average, the companies identified a 12 percent potential improvement opportunity per toolset and created engineering task force teams to prioritize and drive the improvements.Simplifying the Chamber Matching Process Using Trace AnalyticsThe collaboration between NXP and BISTel resulted from a shared vision of achieving Smart Manufacturing using analytic solutions enabled by artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. Chamber matching is critical in identifying process variation to ensure manufacturing quality. Traditional tools like Fault Detection Classification (FDC) often do not provide clear enough insights to pinpoint the issues and require extensive time to collect data from each chamber.Through several use cases, NXP and BISTel successfully illustrated the effectiveness of using a trace analytic solution to quickly and accurately quantify and monitor chamber-to-chamber mismatches as well as changes within a chamber over time. The full trace analyses of all parameters allowed NXP to generate better FDC models to more quickly detect similar issues in the future. In addition, NXP was able to identify the cause of a parametric shift by comparing performance of the same chamber between two different time periods. All in all, the trace analytics solution brought together and analyzed the process data efficiently, thereby reducing analysis time from days to minutes.Eagleview Inspection of SiC and Transparent Wafers X-FAB challenged Microtronic to develop a new capability for its high-throughput recipe-less macro defect inspection systems. Microtronic’s EagleView machine vision macro defect inspection system is well known for its versatility in the semiconductor industry due to its wide deployment as well as its recognition as winner of the 2017 Best of West Award at SEMICON West. But X-FAB’s requirements to inspect and image transparent wafer substrates were novel. After working closely to understand X-FAB’s needs, Microtronic made extensive hardware and software enhancements to enable high-throughput macro inspection of Silicon Carbide (SiC) and other transparent wafer substrates.Get InvolvedThe FOA meetings are held at device manufacturing sites twice a year. The next meeting will be graciously hosted by MACOM in Lowell, Massachusetts, May 22-23, 2019. The DMs and SPs will meet again at SEMICON West at the Moscone Center in San Francisco on July 11, 2019.To attend these meeting and be part of this high-impact group, please email us at [email protected]. For more information about FOA, please visit our website.Nishita Rao is a marketing manager at SEMI.
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When developing industry forecasts, market analysts gather data from hundreds of companies to provide actionable insights on established technologies and to identify near-term business opportunities. As a developer of new MEMS and sensor technologies for a range of commercial applications, clients often ask us, “What’s going to be hot?” Gauging the promise of emerging technologies that are five to 10 years from commercialization requires taking a different tack.History tells us that most of today’s blockbuster MEMS products were born as academic research projects. Years of hard work by entrepreneurs, funded by millions of dollars, have turned proof-of-concept research into new commercial products. To identify up-and-coming technologies, we gather information straight from the source: academic conferences and articles.Chirp Microsystems is a good proof point of our research methodology: In my 2012 report on emerging technologies, I highlighted research from UC Berkeley and UC Davis on “In-Air Ultrasonic Rangefinding and Angle Estimation Using an Array of AlN Micromachined Transducers.” Soon after publication, the authors incorporated Chirp Microsystems to commercialize their technology for gesture- and fingerprint-recognition applications.After five years of development work, Chirp’s products are entering the marketplace. In February 2018, the global supplier TDK InvenSense acquired Chirp, underscoring the company’s commercial potential. At October’s SEMI-MSIG MEMS Sensors Executive Congress in Napa, Calif., Chirp’s CEO, Dr. Michelle Kiang, held attendees rapt as she described her company’s journey from startup to wholly owned subsidiary.There’s a methodThis year, I reviewed over 100 papers from top researchers presenting noteworthy technologies at the Hilton Head Workshop on Solid-State Sensors, Actuators and Microsystems. My criteria for selection were: commercial relevance; offers a solution to a known or anticipated problem; and technology game-changers. The following caught my eye: Event-driven sensors: Cleverly designed silicon MEMS that consume no power while standing by. A triggering mechanical or thermal event closes a contact within the sensor to activate its circuitry and telemetry. These sensors leverage existing fabrication methods, so they could become commercial products within five years for event monitoring and security applications. (UT Dallas, Northeastern University). Figure: 5-bit accelerometer having zero standby power. The device is open circuit until a threshold acceleration closes a mechanical contact. Source: University of Texas at Dallas. Thin film piezoelectric resonators: Advances in PZT deposition methods and process integration with CMOS were used to create monolithic acoustic waveguides for RF filtering in 5G applications. This new filter design, using existing scalable processes, is ripe for commercialization. (Purdue University, Texas Instruments) Intra-body communications: MEMS ultrasound transceivers, made from aluminum nitride, can send data directly through flesh at Mbit/s data rate. With trends toward networks of multiple implanted or wearable medical devices, this innovation would enable medically safe, secure, intra-body wireless communication. This early-stage work still needs in vivo validation and would likely require 10 or more years for development and regulatory approval. (Northeastern University) Screen- and 3D-printed sensors: One example of many exciting innovations using screen- and 3D-printing are potentiometric nitrate soil sensors. Low-cost and biodegradable, these sensors could be spread over huge areas to monitor a farm’s soil quality. Table-top and hobbyist tools are currently used to make screen- and 3D-printed devices, so new manufacturing equipment and infrastructure must be developed before commercial production could occur. (Purdue University) Biodegradable batteries: A paper-based battery that can deliver 0.5 uW of power, ingeniously using bacterial metabolism as the electrolyte. These batteries dissolve in water and could one day be used to power temporary medical implants or biodegradable sensors. This exciting proof-of-concept prototype will require significant process development and new manufacturing infrastructure for commercialization. (SUNY Binghamton) Figure: Paper-based battery dissolves in 60 minutes after immersion in water. Source: SUNY Binghamton To read more about these technologies, please download my presentation from SEMI-MSIG’s MEMS Sensors TechXpot at SEMICON West 2018.Alissa M. Fitzgerald, Ph.D., is the founder and managing member of A.M. Fitzgerald Associates, LLC, a MEMS and sensors development company in Burlingame, CA. She has over 20 years of engineering experience in MEMS design, fabrication and product development and now advises clients on the entire cycle of product development, from business and IP strategy to manufacturing operations. She is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and currently serves as a director of the Transducer Research Foundation, sponsor of the Hilton Head Workshop. She received her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from MIT and her doctorate from Stanford University in Aeronautics and Astronautics.For more information, visit: www.amfitzgerald.com
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At a Glance “Software is eating the world ... and AI is eating software.” Amir Husain, author of The Sentient Machine, at SEMICON West 2018 We’re living in a digital world where semiconductors have been taken for granted. But, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing everything – and bringing semiconductors back into the deserved spotlight. AI’s potential market of hundreds of zettabytes and trillions of dollars relies on new semiconductor architectures and compute platforms. Making these AI semiconductor engines will require a wildly innovative range of new materials, equipment, and design methodologies. Moore’s Law carried us the past 50-plus years and as we’re now stepping into the dawn of AI’s potential, we can see that the coming Cognitive Era will drive its own exponential growth curve. This is great for the world – virtually every industry will be transformed, and people’s lives will get better – and it’s fantastic for our industry. This truly is the very best time to be working in our industry. I’m excited to be at SEMI in this inflection period and at the center of the collaborative platforms that bring the electronics manufacturing supply chain together to Connect, Collaborate, and Innovate to realize the new Cognitive Era. I invite you to partner with SEMI in building the foundation for the Cognitive Era to increase the growth and prosperity of our industry. The World Wakes Up Our lives have become digital. An Amazon Echo wakes us up and answers questions about the weather and traffic. Google Maps tells us the best way to get to a meeting. Yelp finds the best nearby restaurant. A Tweet now even informs us of the latest change in government policy. It’s a digital world that we live in – and the world already takes it for granted. We in the industry know that the digital world only works because of the semiconductors we make and because of our integrated electronics manufacturing supply chain. We make the materials and equipment that, in turn, make the chips that become the beating hearts of the digital economy. But, semiconductors have been largely invisible – hidden away under and inside a smart speaker, locked deep within a phone, buried in data centers and out of view. Meanwhile, the internet companies like Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, and Facebook stole the meaning of “Tech” and were given most of the credit for our digital world. But, finally, things are changing – it’s all coming back to semiconductors! AI Changing Everything Over $400B in semiconductors were sold in 2017 – those unseen chips like hearts beating away in Apple computers, in mobile phones for online shopping and social media, and in televisions showing Netflix. Now internet companies Alphabet, Alibaba, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and others are rushing to develop their own chips. Silicon is back in the Silicon Valley! Hardware is, once again, the place to be. Why? We are now entering the epoch of Artificial Intelligence (AI) – and semiconductors, and new compute architectures, are the key to AI. At this moment, hardware, not software, is the AI enabler to make leaps in performance and to usher in new architectures to become brain-like with neural networks. Beyond major AI chip investments like Google’s (Alphabet) $300M+ program to develop its Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) chip, there’s been a surge in new chip startups and VC funding. Last year, VCs (with corporate investors) invested more than $1.5B in new AI chip startups – doubling the rate from the prior year. After years of consolidation, there is, as some have described, a “Cambrian Explosion” of semiconductor startups with names like Cerebras, Graphcore, Wave Computing, Horizon Robotics, Cambricon Technologies, and DeePhi from the US, Europe, and China. Cambricon (China) has already become the first AI chip “Unicorn” (startup valued $1B+) with a valuation of more than $2.5B after their recent Round B financing. It’s a new silicon world and a new race, as Cade Metz (The New York Times, 1/14/2018) said, “… everyone is starting from the same place: the beginning of a new market.” Winning at AI is very big business. John Kelly, SVP Cognitive Solutions and Research at IBM, in his SEMICON West keynote earlier this month, said, we’re in the era of Artificial Intelligence with more than a $2T opportunity for AI decision making support on top of the $1.5T IT business in 2025. McKinsey estimates deep learning could account for between $3.5T and $5.8T in annual value. As John Kelly presented, AI will transform entire industries – not just our personal devices and lives. The $2T AI decision making support opportunity in 2025 is projected to transform the major economy industries as follows: Source IBM Market Development Insights Analysis; Oxford economics, CapitalIQ, McKinsey Global Institute Moore’s Law describes the exponential increase in the number of transistors per area that has driven growth, and has been the engine for digital innovation, through first the computer era and then the mobility era and now into the dawn of the data era. While the Dennard scaling approach to Moore’s Law may be slowing, the data-centric era continues to drive demand and the industry continues to find new ways to pack more transistors into less volume. Chip sales are forecast to pass $0.5T in 2019 and I predict they will surpass $1T before 2030. It turns out the Smart is not enough – we must reach “Beyond Smart.” Beyond Smart – The Cognitive Era As we move further into the data-centric age, we see it is more than Big Data and AI, it is, instead, the dawn of a wholly new cognitive era. SEMICON West’s 2018 theme was “Beyond Smart” because we are standing at the inflection from sensors triggering actions (smart) to systems that learn and make decisions (cognitive). Devices are moving “beyond smart” to being “cognitive or aware.” Gary Dickerson (CEO of Applied Materials) at SEMICON West said, “… we are in the beginning of the first inning of a major inflection.” Even in the early dawn of the cognitive era, the volume of data is simply astonishing. In the last 24 months, we create more than 90% of all historic digital data. By 2025 we expect AI to generate 160 zettabytes – with 80% of that unstructured data. Moore’s Law is an exponential, but as John Kelly points out, AI’s deep learning is driving its own exponential with performance/watt increasing 2.5X each year. Source: IBM AI was the focus of SEMICON West’s Day 1 keynotes – and a common theme through much of the events programming. There was a common language in the keynotes by John Kelly, Gary Dickerson, and William Dally (Chief Scientist and SVP of Research NVIDIA), and others. We heard how AI is based on data, algorithms, and compute. I was inspired by these talks and for the potential for AI and the cognitive era. Looking ahead, I believe data + algorithms + compute + machine learning = knowledge and cognition. My vision is that this AI knowledge and cognition will be the catalyst to create new modes of systems transformations that will usher in the next Industrial Revolution. As the 4th Industrial Revolution becomes a reality, I look forward to working with others in SEMI Think Tanks to imagine the 5th Industrial Revolution – and its opportunities for our industry. I believe that it will make our lives better, healthier, more prosperous, and more fulfilled. A sentiment shared by many speakers at SEMICON West was – this is the most exciting time to be in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Many wished they were just now starting in the industry as this is the most interesting inflection and transformation ever. There is a flood of new architectures, new materials, new equipment, new processes – and a new system-based design approach to enable the Cognitive Era. We, in hardware manufacturing, are in the driver’s seat for this incredible ride. SEMI is working to help its members speed their time to better business results – and to take full advantage of the Cognitive Era and AI opportunity. At SEMICON West 2018, SEMI provided a broad and deep slate of program education and spotlighted AI expertise across the electronics manufacturing supply. In case you missed it, SEMI also provided: Seven keynotes and dozens of expert panelists Semiconductor venture funding program – problems and solutions for the ecosystem SEMI Smart Workforce Pavilion with over 600 students registered to learn about the industry Smart Pavilions including Smart Manufacturing and Smart Automotive SEMI highlighted the five key vertical application platforms where our industry needs to collaborate across the full supply chain and streamline the supply chain for efficiency. The five are: IoT, Smart Transportation, Smart Manufacturing, Smart MedTech, and Smart Data. These verticals drive huge business potential and are just one of the reasons that SEMICON West has become the gathering place of the extended electronics manufacturing supply chain. With SEMI, together we can realize the potential of the coming Cognitive Era. SEMI members can advance the industry with SEMI collective action in Workforce Development, Advocacy (public policy and regulatory), Standards to synchronize the industry, and in the many SEMI technology communities and special interest groups – to increase the global industry’s rate of growth and overall level of prosperity. For more information, please visit www.semi.org; to become a member, please visit http://www.semi.org/en/become-member-join-semi. Ajit Manocha is President and CEO of SEMI
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Part 2 of this two-part piece examines the potential benefits to be realized by pairing human Subject Matter Experts with smart silicon assistants, and what these new arrangements mean for semiconductor device manufacturing. Part 1 explores best-practice perspectives on collecting and utilizing smart data in industries outside semiconductor manufacturing, one of the important takeaways from the Smart Manufacturing panel discussion at SEMI ASMC 2018. So what does this observation (i.e. the field of medicine, in what seems at first glance a big data environment, is really just clusters and clusters of loose small data connected by the collective neural network of highly trained doctors and their colleagues) mean for semiconductor manufacturing? We think it means we need to apply the same level of intense focus that we already devote to instrumented data collection and analytics in the fab to something more: we need to better capture the vast expertise of our engineering and operational talent in semiconductor manufacturing. We think we need to record what the subject matter experts (SMEs) in the fab see, hear, and think as they investigate yield excursions or machine-down problems. We need to effectively combine product, process, equipment and component subject matter expertise / subject matter experts (SME) with big data analytics to more effectively solve manufacturing problems, be they killer or be they chronic. And we must provide structured methods for incorporating inputs from and active participation of SMEs throughout the data analysis lifecycle, from collection and aggregation, through filtering, feature extraction, analysis and optimization. Some of the challenge will be in just how do we make it easy to gather information from SMEs in real time, while standing in front of equipment in the fab. Internet of Things (Iot) devices are emerging to capture and label images and sounds to enable machine learning algorithms to recognize and help diagnose manufacturing problems based on sight and sound, complementing the instrumented data. But we also need to record the thought processes our human SMEs go through in those investigations – perhaps by the SMEs talking to a smart AI-based conversational assistant who helps make “rounds.” Doing contextual analysis on this added data, combined with the instrumented data, will create the equation Human + Machine = AI (Awesome Insight). Sounds reasonable, right? We think artificial intelligence becomes too artificial if you leave the human out of the equation. AI should be augmented intelligence, where we take the expertise and creativity of the human, and combine it with the rapid computational capabilities of the computer, in order to put problem identification and solutions on steroids. But with the already huge advancements to date in data analytics, cloud, and the emergence of AI, why do improvements in quality, machine utilization, and the implementation of predictive analytics in semiconductor manufacturing seem to be creeping along incrementally, and not appearing as dramatic, step-function improvements? Call it Smart Manufacturing, call it Connected Enterprise, call it Advanced Manufacturing, or Analytics, or Cloud, or the Digital Twin … there are no shortages of terms, philosophies, and technologies available, but why aren’t we seeing their rapid adoption? It could be it’s the downside that comes with needing people. “Good business leaders create a vision, articulate the vision, passionately own the vision, and relentlessly drive it to completion.” Jack Welch. We see from other industries that smart manufacturing conversations originating with the executives of a company thinking to implement smart manufacturing programs lead to vision; however, we also see from other industries, and from our own, that realizing this vision has often been a challenge. Why is that? One reason may be that the people who are personally vested in solutions they implemented in the past, as well as those who follow a pattern of ‘how we’ve always done things’, create, inadvertently or not, persistent internal barriers hindering innovative action. Another may be that engagements with the working engineers and managers charged to be smart manufacturing implementers leads to the pursuit of low-hanging fruit, and cautious investments, that often utilize solutions that ultimately cannot scale and integrate. Not to mention the disadvantage of dealing with the legacy equipment, the legacy networks, the traditional thinking, and the lack of consistency in metrics adding to the confusion. Addressing all these barriers requires an alignment in strategy and execution, along with a plan to support the overall vision, often across the entire enterprise, which is no small matter. And then there are the standards. Having and adhering to standards in control solutions, networks, and data becomes critical in achieving real benefits from smart manufacturing. And data security. One of the other big impediments in the smart manufacturing transformation is data and IP security, another key concern (maybe the most significant) preventing us from moving forward more quickly (e.g. to cloud-based solutions) in our industry. More about that in a follow-up. Achieving synergy across all of manufacturing, from connecting equipment horizontally, through the production system (machines processes), and vertically, through enterprise systems and across production facilities, can only occur if we build standards, security, infrastructure, and human engagement throughout our ecosystem and supply chain. In simple form, the steps to do so include connecting assets, collecting and contextualizing data, and then driving business transformation with actionable insights gained from the data. With impact on every function, and every person, in the enterprise, from equipment operators in the fab through the C-Suite in HQ. Maintenance, Engineering, R D, Operations, Scheduling, IT, Procurement, Finance, HR all contribute, collaborate and benefit. Regardless of the technology, from device level analytics to predictive maintenance and optimization, the people that reside in these disparate groups need to come together with the smart machines to create a common strategy to achieve transformational results. Aligning an enterprise’s goals with its human capital is paramount to success. Therefore, we must challenge our team members and ourselves to work outside our comfort zones, and we need to be forever aware of the need for us to grow with the technology. Smart manufacturing is not necessarily about having fewer people in the fab, but it does suggest having people in the fab, perhaps with different, or upgraded, skill sets, who are even more efficient in their roles as a result of the boost they are getting from Industry 4.0. Fortunately, we now have techniques that let us combine the best, brightest, and latest and greatest analytics with our invaluable SMEs throughout the data analysis lifecycle. We’ll not only be able to deliver higher quality semiconductor manufacturing solutions all in all, but we’ll also be providing methods to more easily distribute, scale, maintain, and continually refine those hard-earned solutions. We expect that subject matter experts will continue to put the “smart” in machine-based smart manufacturing today, and for the foreseeable future. SME contributions are not an option, but, rather, an imperative for ensuring a semiconductor manufacturer’s sustained prosperity, much less its survival. Nancy Greco (IBM Watson), Dave Mayewski (Rockwell Automation), James Moyne (University of Michigan / Applied Materials), and Paul Werbaneth (Intevac, Inc.), along with Julie Jacob (Ernst Young), and Carson Henry (Micron Technology), were members of the SEMI ASMC 2018 panel discussing Industry 4.0 and the Future of Commercial Semiconductor Device Manufacturing. All opinions here are purely our own. Please contact Paul Werbaneth via email at [email protected]. The SEMICON West (July 9-11, 2018, in San Francisco) Smart Manufacturing Pavilion features working production equipment on the floor and three full days of speakers providing insights on building the infrastructure needed to enable AI. Equipment from Bosch Rexroth, Cimetrix, Rudolph Technologies, INFICON, Final Phase Systems, OMRON, DISCO and Edwards Vacuum will showcase cutting-edge smart manufacturing technologies. For information on the SEMI Smart Manufacturing initiative and how to get involved, please click here.
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Part 1 of this two-part piece explores best-practice perspectives on collecting and utilizing smart data in industries outside semiconductor manufacturing, one of the important takeaways from the Smart Manufacturing panel discussion at SEMI ASMC 2018. Part 2 examines the potential benefits to be realized by pairing human Subject Matter Experts with smart silicon assistants, and what these new arrangements mean for semiconductor device manufacturing. The spacecraft Discovery and its HAL 9000 computer system had a digital twin. Did you know? Stanley Kubrick’s seminal film “2001: A Space Odyssey” had its theatrical release 50 years ago this April. “2001” isn’t just a great science fiction film. Rather, it’s a great work of cinema overall, across any category. (The American Film Institute lists “2001” as #15 in the AFI Top 100; a bit below “Vertigo,” a bit above “It’s A Wonderful Life.”) It’s a film so distinguished and so prescient that its lessons can inform our thinking about smart manufacturing, Industry 4.0, and artificial intelligence (AI) today. Not to give too much away, but the earth-bound digital twin of Discovery / HAL identifies a diagnostic error the onboard, Jupiter-bound HAL 9000 has made, things go awry from there, and one of the mission pilots, astronaut Dave Bowman, is forced to intervene. At the recent SEMI Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference, ASMC 2018, on 02 May 2018 in Saratoga Springs, NY, five diverse panelists representing capital equipment, IDMs, academia, the semiconductor supply chain, and smart manufacturing best practices outside the semiconductor industry engaged in a lively discussion with the ASMC attendees. They explored where “smart” is in our industry today, where it’s headed, and what that’s going to mean for us -- the professionals who have brought semiconductor manufacturing to the current state of smart, and are looking to implement an ever-smarter tomorrow. Not to give too much away, but the panelists and audience agreed that there’s nothing artificial about pairing human intelligence with machine-based smart manufacturing. Implementing an ever-smarter tomorrow in semiconductor manufacturing requires smart people just as much as it requires smart machines. Moving towards “smart” means understanding how to derive useful information and actionable intelligence from the ever-increasing pool of big data created during semiconductor manufacturing. Modern manufacturing sites are extensively instrumented today, and create massive amounts of data to consume, decipher, base decisions upon, or discard. As we dig into this problem we realize that equipment and processes in our industry are both obviously complex, but, also, subtly complex. Semiconductor manufacturing tools easily contain 100s to 1000s of components working together to produce nanometer scale, angstrom scale, or even atomic scale features using complex chemical, physical, and plasma processes. There is a plethora of potential failure points and modes, and despite our best efforts to collect more data, many processes continue to be only poorly observable. On top of that, semiconductor fabrication processes are always drifting, and the operational context is continually changing as we change product mix, process maintenance swap-out kit components, and operating conditions and recipes. Sounds like … hospitals, and healthcare? When you see your doctor, she will collect and look at your instrumented data – blood work, blood pressure, weight, and other quantifiable factors. But, typically, your doctor won’t draw a conclusion based on that analysis alone. Rather, your doctor will sit with you, ask probing questions, and record what she asked, your responses, and what she saw, what she heard, and what she thought. Then she’ll build a hypothesis, combining the “anecdotal” data with the instrumented data, and derive from that data set both a likely diagnosis and an effective course of action. In this case, beyond the instrumented data, two humans, and their natural language input, are part of the equation: the patient, with his observations and thoughts, as well as the doctor, with hers. And it’s been a formula for success. Healthcare has made huge, step-function improvements across a spectrum of deadly diseases, as well as with less-deadly chronic afflictions, by harvesting this complex input, committing the proven disease presentation – disease diagnosis – and disease treatment models to medicine’s collective memory, and then teaching the next generation of healthcare providers both the general methods and the standard protocols essential to maintaining good health and successful outcomes. Maybe, in medicine, what seems a big data environment is really just clusters and clusters of loose small data connected by the collective neural network of highly trained doctors and their colleagues. Nancy Greco (IBM Watson), Dave Mayewski (Rockwell Automation), James Moyne (University of Michigan / Applied Materials), and Paul Werbaneth (Intevac, Inc.), along with Julie Jacob (Ernst Young), and Carson Henry (Micron Technology), were members of the SEMI ASMC 2018 panel discussing Industry 4.0 and the Future of Commercial Semiconductor Device Manufacturing. All opinions here are purely our own. Please contact Paul Werbaneth via email at [email protected]. The SEMICON West (July 9-11, 2018, in San Francisco) Smart Manufacturing Pavilion features working production equipment on the floor and three full days of speakers providing insights on building the infrastructure needed to enable AI. Equipment from Bosch Rexroth, Cimetrix, Rudolph Technologies, INFICON, Final Phase Systems, OMRON, DISCO and Edwards Vacuum will showcase cutting-edge smart manufacturing technologies. For information on the SEMI Smart Manufacturing initiative and how to get involved, please click here.
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