China

The more than 53,000 people who flocked to SEMICON Korea last month were treated to a motherlode of insight into the future of the semiconductor industry as 470 companies exhibited innovative technologies in more than 2,000 booths. But the annual event’s most arresting numbers came in keynotes and other presentations pointing to the extraordinary industry growth that lies ahead.“It is no exaggeration to say that 90 percent of the world’s data has been generated in the last few years,” said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research. “This explosive growth of data is expected to continue. That's why server shipments will grow by 20.3 percent, or 30 million units, this year alone.”Feldhan said that the Internet of Things (IoT) will be a chief driver of semiconductor industry growth, with IoT expected to be applied in areas as varied as automotive, smart cities, edge computers, finance, architecture, agriculture and healthcare. For its part, artificial intelligence (AI) will start to exercise human-like judgment. Feldhan noted that in many instances in these fields, “it is more accurate to apply AI and vision systems than to rely on traditional decision-making.”Yoon Jong Lee, senior vice president of DB HiTek, predicted that the Internet, AI and 5G will drive market growth. “Looking back over the past 30 years, semiconductor market growth was powered by PCs, the Internet and cell phones, yet last year memory accounted for 35 percent of total semiconductor sales, more than double the figure in 2016,” he said. He predicted that, in 2019, the foundry sector will outstrip the semiconductor market in growth, noting that the average growth rate of the semiconductor industry is expected to be 4.1 percent, compared to 7.1 percent for the foundry market. Clark Tseng, director of SEMI, reported that the strong semiconductor growth in 2018 is unlikely to continue in 2019 due to the decline in memory pricing, as well as mobile and PC demand. “Demand for semiconductors is likely to decline in the first half as the industry is still digesting inventory and rebound in the second,” Tseng said. Semiconductor industry growth headwinds include decreases in high-end smartphone purchases, PC demand and demand for DRAMs for servers in data centers, Tseng said. Declines in economic growth and consumption in China and the U.S.-China trade war will also contribute to a slowdown. However, Tseng noted that, over the long term, technology innovation will continue and that the semiconductor industry’s prospects remain bright.One key innovation will be the elimination of AI’s reliance on Internet connections in the future. In his opening day keynote, Eunsoo Shim, senior vice president at Samsung Electronics, emphasized that AI technology that operates without the Internet in the future is essential. “We are developing 'on-device AI' technology that incorporates AI algorithms in products such as smartphones and autonomous vehicles,” he said. "When on-device AI technology is implemented, it reduces reliance on the Internet, battery consumption, and data latency.” Reducing latency will significantly improve device response time.Walden C. Rhines, CEO Emeritus of Mentor, a Siemens business, predicted that AI will fuel rapid memory growth. The memory semiconductor (DRAM, NAND flash) market is expected to see a temporary slowdown this year, with the market expected to rebound in 2020. Rhines said that memory could be seen as an early market with rapid future growth, citing memory market super-booms in 1995 and 2000.“Memory production has not decreased since 1995 or 2000,” he said. “Although memory prices will temporarily fall this year after significant market growth in 2017 to 2018, the market will continue to grow as memory production increases,” he said. Rhines added that “although memory prices will drop by about 10 percent this year, he believes prices will increase 6 percent next year.” He also predicted the steady growth of the non-memory semiconductor market as AI technology matures and China’s investment in fabless companies continues.Indeed, SEMICON Korea speakers made it clear that concerns about the growth of the semiconductor industry are expected to be short-lived. While overall growth is likely to slow in 2019, the industry is expected to rebound steadily – powered by the semiconductor industry paradigm shift led by AI, IOT, and autonomous driving – and reach a new high of nearly $541 billion in 2020.Jaegwan Shim is a marketing specialist at SEMI Korea.

This year, SEMI ISS covered it all – from a high-level semiconductor market and global geopolitical overview down to the neuro morphic and quantum level. Here are key takeaways from the Day 1 keynote and Economic Trends and Market Perspectives presentations.In the opening keynote, Anne Kelleher from Intel pointed to the huge growth of data, with fabs collecting more than 5 billion sensor data points each day. The challenge, Kelleher noted, is to turn massive amounts of data into valuable information. Moore’s law is not dead. New models of computing benefit still from Moore’s law and advances in Si/CMOS technologies for conventional, deep learning, neuro morphic and quantum computing.With customers expecting continual improvements in applications, the question is whether the chip industry is moving fast enough to meet these expectations, Kelleher said. A broad supply chain, equipment and materials innovations, and attracting the “best of the best” college graduates to fuel innovation is key, she said.In the economic trends session, Nicholas Burns (ambassador ret.) from Harvard University pointed out that we will see a major shift in power. The U.S. will remain the major world power over the next 10 years, but we will see a major shift in power in the next coming decades as the gap with countries like China, Russia and India continues to narrow.Duncan Meldrum from Hilltop Economics said that we are passing the peak growth of economic cycle. He warns that a more likely outlook is that a global growth recession is developing. Although semiconductor MSI growth will see a noticeable slowdown in 2019 and 2020, the semiconductor industry is still healthy over the longer term.Bob Johnson from Gartner sees demand shifting from consumer to commercial applications with higher ROIs and budgets. AI, IoT and 5D are the major enablers. He sees structural changes in the semiconductor industry especially for memory but also for Moore’s law with increasing costs and fewer players.The DRAM markets shows volatility and NAND market may be negative in 2019 but non-memory are expected to accelerate mainly because of increasing content and some price hikes.Overall Gartner expects good long-term growth with a CAGR (2017 to 2022) of 5.1%, outpacing 2011 to 2016 CAGR of 2.6%. After a strong 2018 with 13.4% revenue, he forecasts a slower 2019 with 2.6% growth followed by a 8% growth in 2020 and negative growth rate in 2021.Andrea Lati of VLSI went “Back to fundamentals” in his presentation about the industry. VLSI sees a downside bias due to slowing global economy, tariffs, and trade wars. Future drivers are data economy, cloud, AI and automotive.As memory leads the 2019 slowdown, analog, power, logic and other sectors remain in positive territory. VLSI lowered its semiconductor equipment forecast for 2018 from 20% (Jan. 2018) to 14% (Dec. 2018) but increased its sales outlook from 8% to 15% in 2018. VLSI expects revenue to slow into the first half of 2019 but increase to over 4% in the second half of the year, resulting in total 2019 drop of 2.7%. Semiconductor equipment sales are expected to drop from 14% in 2018 to -10% in 2019.Michael Corbett of Linz Consulting, covering wafer fab materials in the years of 3D scaling, sees these as good times for the industry. His outlook for wafer fab materials is bullish based on strong MSI and because wafer fab materials suppliers are getting bigger because of M As.In the Market Perspective session, Sujeet Chand of Rockwell Automation pointed out that as more and more data is generated, the problem is how to get value of all the data collected. There is a need to create the right architecture for machine learning and AI and big data is increasingly being replaced by contextual/structured data. He expects Industry 4.0 to drive foundries to become smaller, more flexible and more productive.In the Technology and Manufacturing session, Aki Sekiguchi of TEL addressed process challenges in the age of co-optimization. The semiconductor industry continues to expand, driven by massive growth of interconnected devices, with heavy demand for processing power and storage. He expects an exponential increase of data from about 40ZB in 2018 to 50ZB in 2020 to 163 ZB in 2026.Major technologies such as DRAM, 3D NAND and logic are dealing with scaling challenges. The density of DRAM (Mb/chip) is plateauing according to 2015 to 2020 trend data, with DRAM is in need of EUV. Memory capacity demand is leading to increasing layers and higher aspect ratios that is concern for 3D NAND and mainly for plasma etch. With Logic already implementing 3D structures, it appears to be in a solid position. Buddy Nicoson of Micron talked about his 50 years in the industry and looked ahead to the next 50. The anchors – quality, cost, scale and speed – won’t change. It has been a great journey so far with unprecedented opportunities and challenges ahead of us. We are getting into a convergence (specialization, integration) and solution-based phase. We will see some inflection points in the coming years, with the best yet to come.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.

We are living in a digital world where semiconductors are taken for granted, AI is bringing semiconductors back into the deserved spotlight, and now we are witnessing the dawn of the Cognitive Era enabled by semiconductors,” SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha said to an audience of more than 500 during his presentation – Rebirth of the Semiconductor Industry – at the First Global IC Entrepreneur Conference.Speaking at the Shanghai event in mid-December, Manocha recalled how, when he first entered the semiconductor industry in the 1980s, semiconductors revenue topped out at about $10 billion. Now, with sales having swelled to a staggering $450 billion, the industry is on a much faster growth track. Revenue could reach $500 billion by the end of 2020 and trillions of dollars by 2030. Over the past two decades, chips have given rise to social media and e-commerce powerhouses such as Google, Facebook, and Alibaba. All rely on heavily on chips, the engines of data centers across all industries. Wave after wave of technology innovation have been powered by semiconductors – from mainframe computers in the 1970s, personal computers in the 1980s, the Internet in the 1990s, and mobile and social networking in the early 20th century, to the current shining stars of technology such as IoT, big data, new memory, virtual reality, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence, Manocha said. New applications across areas such as smart manufacturing and digital healthcare are stoking the latest round of semiconductor growth.The rise of AI, like all the technologies before it, has renewed the semiconductor industry once again with its promise to drive growth of all industries worldwide, Manocha said. Five years ago, IoT was but a gleam in a technologist’s eye, more hype than reality with doubt about its viability running deep. Today, with about 60 percent of people in the world connected to the Internet, the enormous promise and potential of IoT is flowering. Industry growth will explode as the melding of AI and IoT birth countless applications and innovations in SMART transportation (0 emissions; 0 fatalities; 0 congestion), smart sensors (agriculture, infrastructure, healthcare) and SMART “Everything” (people, devices, homes, cities, industries, and the list goes on). Indeed, AI is now widely recognized as a chief growth driver of the semiconductor industry well into the future, with semiconductor technology at the core of AI innovation, he said. Semiconductors are thrusting the fifth industrial revolution into the fast lane. China’s much-anticipated rise as an industry powerhouse over the next few years will only accelerate industry growth, turning current disruptions into future opportunities as SEMI China continues to cultivate connection, collaboration and innovation in China’s fast-growing semiconductor sector.Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.

There were over 220 participants at the recent SOI Academy FD-SOI Training event organized in Shanghai. The event extended over two days, with the first day covering a basic introduction to the technology as well as the ecosystem worldwide and in China. The second day was hands-on professional training. Attendees got a comprehensive understanding of how to leverage the benefits and flexibility of FD-SOI design techniques for low-power chips including logic, mixed-signal/RF and analog blocks. They had a great line-up of experts from whom to learn – check out the agenda here. There was also a follow-up press release (in Chinese) from SITRI here. There will be more of these SOI Academy events in cities across China in the year to come – we'll keep you posted (and of course, keep checking back for news on the Consortium's Events page). [caption id="attachment_12981" align="aligncenter" width="1000"] SOI Academy '18 keynotes by: Dr. Mark Ding, CEO, SITRI; Dr. Carlos Mazure, EVP Soitec and Chairman/Executive Director SOI Consortium. Dr. Julien Arcamone, EVP Leti. (Images courtesy: SITRI). Lower right: the hands-on FD-SOI training.[/caption] The two-day seminar and hands-on FD-SOI design training was (superbly!) co-organized by SITRI and Leti, with the support of the SOI Industry Consortium at the Jiading SIMIT campus outside of Shanghai. Just to put this in perspective, SIMIT and SITRI are absolutely key players in China's chip ecosystem. SIMIT is the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, one of the most venerable institutes in the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS) and one of the world's earliest pioneers in SOI. SITRI is the Shanghai Industrial μTechnology Research Institute, an international innovation center focused on globally accelerating innovation and commercialization of More-than-Moore for IoT. Both institutions are under the aegis of Dr. Xi Wang, Chairman of SITRI, Director General of SIMIT, Academician of CAS, and champion of all things SOI in China. At this Shanghai event, the participants came from industry (including big companies, SMEs and startups) and technical institutions. In fact as well as attendees from Shanghai people voyaged from other cities such as Shenzhen and Chengdu. The designers participating to the FD-SOI training day were all experienced in design and highly motivated in learning FD-SOI design, notes Carlos Mazure, Chairman Executive Director of the SOI Industry Consortium, and Executive VP of Soitec. “This made it possible to dive into the specificities of FD-SOI,” he said, adding that, “The focus on RF was very timely.” Day 1: Intro to FD-SOI The first afternoon opening keynotes were made by SITRI CEO Dr. Mark Ding and Leti EVP Dr. Julien Arcamone. These were followed by overview talks by execs from Soitec, Verisilicon and GlobalFoundries. After a lively networking break, three talks delved into FD-SOI technology. The first was by Professor Sorin Cristoloveanu, Laureate of the IEEE Andrew Grove Award and Director at the CNRS (the French National Center for Scientific Research – the largest governmental research organization in France and the largest fundamental science agency in Europe). He covered device physics and characterization techniques. This was followed by talks on the technology by Soitec Fellow Bich-Yen Nguygen, and by Dr. Christophe Tretz, IBM Sr. Engineer on product design methodology. The day ended with a dinner, where Professor Cristoloveanu says enthusiastic technical discussions continued unabated (and continued even further in follow-up emails), lots of business cards were exchanged, and opportunities for further education were explored. Day 2: Hands-on Training The second day, designers got hands-on training from Leti experts using FD-SOI PDKs, first in the morning on digital, then in the afternoon on RF. Everyone loved the lively discussion and in-depth exchanges between the experts and the designers. They agreed that FD-SOI has important applications and differentiated competitive advantages for IoT, 5G, automotive, AI and other fields. At the end of the training, Leti and SITRI jointly issued SOI Academy certificates of completion to the designers. Feedback from participants was very good. Some asked for further education and for hands-on testimonials from companies that are already designing and manufacturing products on FD-SOI. “The participants were focused, motivated, involved, with good knowledge, which helped make the three hours of Digital training effective,” said Dr. Alexandre Valentian, Leti Sr. Expert, Digital Design. “The IT team was very helpful in setting up the training, the students accounts and the hardware infrastructure.” “The training on Basics of FD-SOI RF circuit was a great success thanks to the efficiency of our Chinese partners and also thanks to the enthusiasm and the good level of our trainees. As senior Expert of CEA Leti I was really impressed by the professionalism of the organization team. For all these reasons, I’m very glad to have had the opportunity to contribute to the 2018 SOI Academy,” said Dr. Baudouin Martineau, Leti Sr. Expert, RFIC Design Technologies. “The professionalism, efficiency and enthusiasm of our Chinese partners and the level and technical relevance of all trainees made the training on Basics of FD-SOI RF circuit a great success and fruitful experience,” added Frédéric Hameau, Sr. RF Research Engineer, Leti Project Leader, Architecture, IC Design Embedded Software Division, RF Architectures and ICs Laboratory. “It was a pleasure to get the opportunity to be part of this first edition of SOI academy 2018.” The organizers would like to thank the sponsors, including: the SOI Consortium and its members Soitec, VeriSilicon, GlobalFoundries, Simgui and Cadence, as well as Mentor, ProPlus and other companies and institutions in China and worldwide. Dr. Mazure notes that special recognition must go to Dr. Julien Arcamone, EVP, Leti-CEA and to Qing Wang-Bousquet, SITRI representative, for the perfect and smooth organization, and to the Leti instructors, who are international experts and highly committed. “As one of the main initiators and organizers of the 2018 SOI Academy, I wanted to personally thank all of you for your respective contribution to this first edition of the SOI Academy,” concludes Dr. Arcamone. “Undoubtedly, it was a great success, very well organized and fluid and we can be proud of that.”

Meeting Attended by More than 100 Tech Company RepresentativesOver the past decade, China has become a central market for the semiconductor industry. China is now home to more than 30 percent of semiconductor end users worldwide. All semiconductor companies, regardless of size, operate in China. The rise of China’s semiconductor market has been enabled by global commerce and a vast network of supply chains that span the globe.With China now a prominent player in the industry, it has become critically important for semiconductor companies to effectively engage with China. In order to help our member companies better understand the challenges and opportunities and navigate what can be a complex landscape, SEMI hosts annual trade compliance conferences in China for trade professionals. This year, SEMI, with CompTIA and U.S. Information Technology Office (USITO), hosted two global trade seminars in China, one in Shanghai on October 30th and the other in Beijing on November 1st.Over 120 representatives from more than two dozen technology companies attended the 2018 trade compliance seminars. Over the course of the two sessions, speakers from government, business, and law firms highlighted the most pressing trade issues in China. Speakers included thought leaders, trade practitioners and senior Chinese government officials.Sessions included a deep dive on China’s draft customs reform law, a panel discussion on U.S. export controls, and a briefing on how best to engage with China Customs and how China’s products are classified. Another well-received session focused on the status of China’s export control law, which has been in the drafting process for years.However, the overarching question for many attendees was U.S.-China economic relations, which are undergoing a sea change, with the U.S. having imposed or threatened tariffs on all imports from China – totaling more than $500 billion in goods – over the past six months. As a speaker noted during a session on the U.S.-China tensions and the surrounding broader geopolitical impacts, the environment is becoming increasingly complex and volatile. In fact, on the morning of the first session, Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit was added to the U.S. Commerce Department’s entity list, which effectively restricts exports to the company.As a result of the trade actions, ranging from tariffs to enhanced export controls, U.S. semiconductor companies are beginning to increase prices, reduce research and development (R D) budgets, restructure supply chains and take other mitigation actions that will ultimately slow innovation. Certain export controls and other regulations that prohibit U.S.-companies from conducting business with targeted companies will put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage.In fact and as we speak, some companies with China-based operations have cancelled orders from U.S. companies and shifted to suppliers that are not subject to U.S. actions to reduce the associated risks of supply interruption and cost increases. Ultimately, U.S. trade policy could backfire, threatening jobs, curbing growth, cutting U.S. R D investments and compromising the competitiveness of U.S. firms.SEMI will begin planning next year’s Global Trade Seminar in the coming months. If you would like to be involved in the planning, or would simply like more information about the seminar, please contact Jay Chittooran, Public Policy Manager at SEMI, at [email protected].

Kyushu, the third largest island in Japan, is home to the semiconductor production bases of integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) with world-class cutting-edge technology. SONY, Toshiba, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu and Nissan are among the sector’s shining stars, though a host of other IDMs tied to the supply chains of other major enterprises have also set root in Kyushu. Collectively, the companies earned Kyushu the name Silicon Island of Japan.Kyushu’s flourishing IDM industry sprouted from favorable tax and other government policies that reduced semiconductor production costs to levels lower than elsewhere in Japan. Once the IC producers had established bases, equipment and materials companies naturally followed, leading to the influx of many parts manufacturers. Together, they came to Kyushu, one after another, to make the island a magnet for manufacturing. And so it was to Kyushu that a SEMI China delegation travelled for a meeting at TEL’s factory in Kumamoto to learn more about the secrets to the rapid growth of the island’s semiconductor industry and promote cooperation between Chinese and Japanese enterprises. Underscoring the rise of the Silicon Island of Japan, China will soon become TEL’s largest market, said Masami Akimoto, Chairman of Tokyo Electron Kyushu Limited, speaking at the event. Masami Akimoto hopes for support from SEMI China.The island of 12 million people contributes to the growth of the global semiconductor industry, expected to reach USD 500 billion in size in 2019 as China’s semiconductor sector, fueled in part by government-backed investment funds, continues its rapid expansion. Despite the gains, China still lags other regions in advanced manufacturing, said Lung Chu, president of SEMI China, which is doing its part to draw more advanced manufacturing to the region through its SIIP platform. The initiative encourages pan-regional cooperation with China’s semiconductor industry to promote free trade, open markets, technology innovation and IP protection – all to help China better integrate with the global semiconductor industry. SEMI China President Lung Chu(L) issues visit memorial to Masami Akimoto(R), Chairman of Tokyo Electron Kyushu Limited. Chicken shall be led by the HenUnlike other regions with comprehensive semiconductor industries, Kyushu’s is primarily focused on production and assembly, with more than 200 manufacturers of semiconductor equipment and parts.SEMI China Delegation at Tokyo Electron Kyushu LimitedTEL built its first factory in Kumamoto, a city covered by volcanic ash in the center of Kyushu, 34 years ago. Today, TEL every month produces 80 to 90 sets of equipment, each consisting of, on average, over 400 thousand parts that must be certified and authorized by TEL before delivery to its module manufacturers and assembly into complete machines. Having blossomed over the past few decades, the island’s supply chain now supplies TEL with all its equipment parts. SEMI China Delegation at Fajita WorksTEL supplier Fajita Works, a high-precision plate metal manufacturer founded in 1945, is emblematic of other companies in the Kyushu supply chain. It keeps a low public profile as it serves several longtime customers and earns ardent loyalty from its workers, an ethos reflected in the change next January of its slog from “Only One” to “Great company, Great life.”Quality is the life of the enterpriseLong before the rise of its legendary automobile and consumer electronics companies, Japan was known for inferior, counterfeited products, labeled “Made In USA” and shipped to the United States by more than 100 factories. The net effect was to shrink and commoditize American markets. The tide in Japan’s product quality and stained reputation began to turn in the 1980s, when Japan’s semiconductor industry began to produce memory with an error rate 27 times lower than its U.S. competitors, giving Japan an upper hand in quality that it would never relinquish. SEMI China Delegation at HORIBAKyushu-based flowmeter supplier HORIBA, among the many Japanese companies famous for their product quality, ships 38 percent of its products into the automotive market and 27 percent into the semiconductor sector. Cleanliness is as vital a part of the company’s culture as quality. Each depends on the other, with fine detail held to the highest importance. On its visit to HORIBA, the SEMI China delegation, passing by an office area before entering the factory, sighed at the sight of the spotless, neatly kept furniture and workspace: They had never seen an office so sparkling clean. HORIBA’s success is rooted in immaculate offices, factories and the company’s motto “Enjoy innovation and pay close attention to product quality.”After Kumamoto sustained heavy damage during a 2016 earthquake, HORIBA workers returned rocks scattered by temblor to their original position, knowing that order is critical to lean, efficient manufacturing and that, indeed, “the devil is in the details.” SEMI China Delegation in Kumamoto City Full confidence in the exploration of Chinese marketConsumer electronics stalwarts Sony and Panasonic feature semiconductor factories in Kagoshima, the southernmost city in Kyushu and Japan, though rumor had it two years ago that Panasonic planned to pull out. The Panasonic plant, which provides batteries for Tesla, remains. The Sony facility produces image sensors for the iPhone.Semiconductor equipment maker ULVAC, SEMI China’s most important strategic partner, is also based in Kagoshima. During the delegation’s visit to the company, Lung Chu noted that while China is the world’s largest semiconductor market, the region meets just 13 percent of domestic chip demand. Stressing that ULVAC can play a crucial role in helping China become a bigger player, he expressed admiration for ULVAC’s professionalism along with hope that it will maintain its rapid growth and leverage SEMI resources to catalyze rapid development of Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and 5G technologies in China and rise into the top 10 of global equipment manufacturers. SEMI China President Lung Chu (L) issues visit memorial to ULVAC Kyushu President and CEO Kenji Yamaguchi ULVAC Kyushu president and CEO Kenji Yamaguchi made clear the company’s interest in Lung Chu’s insights into Chinese semiconductor industry while underscoring its core competency of producing semiconductors for flat panel displays. The Kyushu Factory of ULVAC is full of vitality and market competitiveness. SEMI China Delegation at ULVAC EBARA, a precision machinery company located in Kumamoto, has manufactured chemical-mechanical planarization (CMP) equipment for over 20 years and delivered nearly 2,400 mechanical polishing machines worldwide. While the company expects to ship 50 sets per year to China starting next year, it has the capacity to deliver 20 sets per month, enough to meet demand of Chinese semiconductor makers. SEMI China Delegation at EBARAThe most telling takeaway from the SEMI China delegation’s visit to the Kyushu: Japan ranks number one worldwide in research and development (R D) investment as a proportion of GDP and is also at the top in the percentage of R D funds controlled by private enterprises. The outsize investment strategy has enabled Japan to maintain its hold as one of the world’s top technology innovators.Like Sakurajima, the famed Kyushu volcano, the SEMI China delegation will continue to harness its forces to build relationships with the island’s semiconductor supply chain as it works to develop win-win pan-regional relationships and foster the growth of China’s semiconductor industry. Best view of Sakurai volcano Gang Yao is a marketing director at SEMI China.

IC design has emerged as the largest semiconductor sector in China, with 2017 revenues of $31.9 billion generated by about 1,380 companies. At the same time, China’s fabless segment has risen to third in global rankings with about one-tenth of worldwide sales.Most of China’s fabless segment produces the logic chips that are key to defense, telecommunications, finance and other industries important to the region’s national security interests and its independence from U.S. and other international suppliers. Investment in fabless logic continues to be the top priority in China’s Phase 2 investment. In mobile, China made meaningful progress through HiSilicon and Spreadtrum, both fabless design houses.In 2017, HiSilicon and UNISOC (formerly Spreadtrum), China’s two largest domestic IC design companies, were ranked in the global top 10 of fabless companies, though most Chinese IC design companies are small, with revenues under $1 million. Working with domestic smartphone makers, both companies have carved out a strong presence in logic and, in particular, the communications and application processors that power data centers and Internet of Things (IoT).Despite their rapid rise, China’s AI accelerators and cryptocurrency ASIC suppliers have yet to appear in China’s top 10. However, we expect their aggressive roadmaps and early adoption of leading-edge process technologies to propel them into the top 10 in the near future. As illustrated in the figure below, an examination of the competitiveness of China’s semiconductor segments reveals that the close proximity of China’s fabless companies to the region’s electronic systems makers plays to their advantage, though access to IP and leading-edge process technologies is a barrier to their growth in the near term. A key barrier to China’s foundries is their limited ability to develop leading-edge process technologies and strategic relationships with top international fabless companies. Most leading international fabless companies rely on customer-owned tooling (COT) and design tools for design. As the approach takes time to develop, it will not support China’s aggressive goal and timeline to independently meet domestic IC demand. Instead, China has been disciplined in executing its strategy to acquire valuable IP and leading-edge technologies by aggressively partnering with international fabless design leaders and pursuing deals with market leaders and laggards. The initial entry point for Chinese fabless companies was the low-margin consumer applications dominated by Chinese suppliers, giving them considerable control over demand. In addition, Chinese companies have aggressively hired top talent from abroad and grown the skills of its engineering workforce to sustain innovation. China will likely free itself from its reliance on non-Chinese developed manufacturing process technology and EDA design tools.China’s semiconductor design growth, concentrated in the Pearl River Delta (see figure below), is fueled by national and local investment programs. SEMI August 2018 The Pearl River Delta, which includes Xiamen, Quanzhou and Shenzhen, is establishing itself as China’s IC design, system and application hub. Domestic and international companies are eligible for investment provided they are established or investing in one of the four regionshat are home to various sectors of the electronics and semiconductor supply chain. Access to large investment funds, coupled with China’s infrastructure build-out, is a strong supporting force to drive the growth of top-tier domestic fabless companies. For its part, the Phase 2 of China’s National Investment Fund targets investments of RMB 150 - 200 billion ($23 billion - $30 billion) in IC design. The growing domestic consumer base and infrastructure investment will drive opportunities for China’s fabless companies over the next decade.To learn more about the latest development on China IC Industry, and get a sample of the China IC Ecosystem Report, visit http://www.semi.org/en/china-ic-ecosystem-report.China IC Ecosystem Report covers the rise of China’s IC industry, national and local government policies, public and private funding, and their implications for China's IC supply chain. The report also compares key domestic companies and their international peers segment by segment.Eugenia Liu is a senior product marketing manager at SEMI. Shanshan Du is chief analyst and program director at SEMI China.

Last week, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), on instruction from President Trump, notified Congress that the administration intends to begin bilateral trade negotiations with Japan, the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom.SEMI stands strong for free trade and open markets, and roundly supports efforts to increase market access and tap into more foreign economies, especially economies like Japan and the EU, both of which are central to the semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry, which enables the $2 trillion electronics market, is built on global commerce. SEMI members rely on a vast network of supply chains that span the globe, bringing together components and tools made all around the world and assembled into a single sub-system that is then integrated into a larger tool used in the chipmaking process.These free trade agreements will reduce tariffs, which will result in cost savings and productivity gains, and allow SEMI members to expand and grow. But the benefits of modern free trade agreements extend well beyond tariff reduction. Indeed, these trade deals will establish and enhance global trade rules that enable companies to innovate and compete fairly on a level playing field. Trade agreements strengthen certainty and further business continuity.While the exact nature and negotiation timelines for the talks remain unclear, SEMI will engage the administration, urging it to maintain high standards in these agreements, such as: Maintain strong respect for intellectual property and trade secrets through robust safeguards and significant penalties for violators Remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers on semiconductor products as well as products that depend on semiconductors Simplify and harmonize the customs and trade facilitation processes Combat any attempts of forced technology transfer Prevent use of data localization measures and enable the free flow of cross-border data flows End discriminatory and/or burdensome regulatory practices Ensure standards in all forms are market-oriented Create rules for state-owned enterprises to ensure fair and non-discriminatory treatment of all companies According to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the U.S. law that guides trade votes in Congress, negotiations with each country can only begin 90 days after last week’s notification. During that period, there will be intensive consultation with Congress and stakeholders. This means, at the earliest, talks can start on January 14, 2019. (Bear in mind that discussions with the UK can only begin in earnest once the UK has formally left the European Union on March 29, 2019.)The Trump administration’s announcement comes after the U.S. imposed or threatened tariffs on imports on all trading partners, including the EU and China. All told, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on more than $300 billion worth of goods. SEMI has weighed in on the detrimental nature of tariffs, arguing that tariffs on China will ultimately do nothing to address the concerns with China’s trade practices. This sledgehammer approach will introduce significant uncertainty, impose greater costs, and potentially lead to a trade war, ultimately undercutting the ability of semiconductor companies to sell overseas, stifling innovation and curbing U.S. technological leadership.Elsewhere, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the multilateral trade deal that links 11 Asia-Pacific economies, is well on its way to taking force. Canada will be taking its final steps to ratify the deal, joining Mexico, Japan and Singapore. The deal, formerly known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, should take effect by the first half of 2019.SEMI will continue tracking ongoing trade developments. Any SEMI members with questions should contact Jay Chittooran, Public Policy Manager at SEMI, at [email protected].

Part 1 of this article discussed the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and compared it with memory device sales and memory fab equipment investments. This article, the second of the two-part series, illustrates how the Memory Inventory Cycle Index starts to weaken before memory sales of the top three memory suppliers decline. It also shows how the Memory Inventory Cycle Index peaked in the fourth quarter of last year along with YoY growth rates for both memory sales and memory fab equipment investments.In addition to the weakening signaled by the Memory Inventory Cycle Index, memory suppliers are facing headwinds in the form of tariffs as mentioned in Micron’s most recent earnings call. The U.S.-China trade dispute could reduce Micron’s profitability; China granted a preliminary injunction to prevent Micron’s Chinese subsidiary from manufacturing and selling in China this July. However, it is very difficult to quantify the risk the tariffs pose to the future of the memory market.On the other hand, the YoY growth rate of semiconductor sales according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics is closely tied to China’s manufacturing sector as shown by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) New export orders and Orders in hand sub-indexes. Figure 3 shows that as the growth rate of new exports and order backlog slows, the YoY growth rate of semiconductor sales will be adversely impacted. As the largest consumer of semiconductors in the world, China will bear the brunt of the slowing market. Figure 3. Memory Inventory Cycle Index China manufacturing sector PMI’s sub-indices * RemarksChina PMI’s sub-indices are on the basis of the data published by NBS (National Bureau of Satistics of China). Also those data were calculated based on 12MMA (12-month moving average) to minimize seasonal fluctuation. The YoY growth rate of the 3-month moving average of semiconductor sales in China alone, China and Asia Pacific, and all regions showed additional declines in July (Figure 4). Monitoring the Orders in hand and New export orders sub-indices for China and China’s semiconductor consumption and WSTS sales revenue in China can help track the risk of trade disputes. Figure 4. YoY growth rate of semiconductor sales revenue in China and Asia Pacific * Remarks1) Regions as defined by WSTS’ Bluebook.2) Sales revenue were calculated based on 3MMA (3-month moving average value). A review of the relationship between the Memory Inventory Cycle Index, semiconductor sales, and memory fab equipment investment growth rates suggests we have passed the peak in the current cycle. However, bear in mind that the Work In Process (WIP) to Finished-goods inventory ratio has sharply increased since 2017 as shown in Figure 5. The increase in WIP inventory could be attributed to the increasing technical challenges associated with 3D NAND stacking and DRAM scaling. As a result, the proportion of finished-goods inventory in total inventory remained low until the second quarter of 2018, possibly implying that memory demand remained healthy in spite of the contraction modeled by the Memory Inventory Cycle Index. Figure 5. The proportion of finished-goods inventory in the total inventories * Remarks 1) All inventories data from 3 companies’ financial reports were calculated based on 4-quarter moving average.2) Total Inventory accounts for the sum of Finished-Goods, WIP, and Raw materials inventory.3) Company data complied by SEMI. The Memory Inventory Cycle Index has entered a period of contraction, which is supported by Micron’s weak guidance for its fiscal first quarter of 2019 (September to November). The outlook for memory sales and memory fab equipment investments reported by WSTS and SEMI, respectively, also suggests that a market correction is underway. While the low proportion of finished-goods inventory does not threaten the market yet, it should remind industry observers to view high WIP inventories with caution. Unlike past inventory cycles, the high inventory levels could burden the memory market in the absence of sustainable demand.Sungho Yoon is a senior market research analyst in Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. SEMI China IC Ecosystem ReportLearn more about 30 new fab construction projects underway or planned in China in the newly released SEMI China IC Ecosystem Report. The research report is a comprehensive update and analysis of China's IC manufacturing ecosystem with charts, graphs, tables and maps.

Micron, one of the top three memory semiconductor companies, reported solid results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 (June to August) to extend a multi-quarter string of strong growth. However, the company’s mediocre guidance for the current quarter has raised concerns that memory demand will start to slow.To shed light on this super memory cycle, which began in the second half of 2016, this article examines correlations among the top three memory suppliers’ sales revenue, quarterly inventory levels, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) market data, and memory fab equipment investments reported by SEMI.The Memory Inventory Cycle Index, which is based on financial data reported by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, is the difference between the year-over-year growth rates of sales (or shipments) and inventories. The index explains business cycle fluctuations such as expansions and contractions, trending up in expansions and declining in contractions. Figure 1 shows both historical Micron sales (blue dotted line) and the quarterly Memory Inventory Cycle Index (black solid line). To minimize seasonal fluctuations, both were calculated based on a four-quarter moving average of sales and inventories. Figure 1. Memory Inventory Cycle Index Compared to Memory Sales* Remarks1) Memory Inventory Cycle Index = YoY growth rate of memory sales revenues - YoY growth rate of memory total inventoris value on a four quarters moving average.2) Calculated memory sales and inventoris are based on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron public announcements.3) South Korea Won were converted to US$ based on the quaterly average value released by FRED.4) Companies’ sales data were calculated based on 4-quarter moving average.5) Company data complied by SEMI. As shown in Figure 1, the Memory Inventory Cycle Index has been declining since peaking in the fourth quarter of 2017, mirroring the previous two contractions – in 2010 and 2014 – in which memory sales slowed or stagnated after four quarters of the index decline. Accordingly, if this relationship holds between the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and sales, Micron’s sales will slow in the coming quarters and is consistent with Micron’s guidance for the current quarter. Moreover, the index suggests that the sum of three companies’ sales (the solid red line) will exhibit a similar trend of decreased growth in the coming quarters, which will impact the annual growth rate of global memory sales.WSTS recently increased its 2018 forecast for memory sales to 30.5%, up from 26.5% projected in June of this year. However, the 3-month moving average of memory sales shows that memory sales already increased by 48% YoY in the first half of the year, which means growth is expected to be lower in the second half of the year. Other signs pointing to a weaker end to the year include front-end equipment investments by the top three memory suppliers. SEMI is modeling an annual increase of only one percent for the year for these suppliers, with spending down 23% in the second half relative to the first half of the year.Figure 2 shows the historical trend of the Memory Inventory Cycle Index, the YoY growth rate of memory sales, and YoY memory fab equipment investments. The Memory Inventory Cycle Index increased faster than memory sales and fab equipment investments in the past two cycles. In the most recent memory cycle, these three indexes are moving in tandem, each peaking in the fourth quarter of 2017. Figure 2. Memory Inventory Cycle Index, Memory Sales and Memory Fab Equipment Investments* Remarks1) Both sales and memory fab equipment investments data were calculated based on 4-quarter moving average to minimize seasonal fluctuation.2) All data are from SEMI, except memory sales (WSTS) While overall memory sales continue to be strong this year, memory ASPs have shown signs of weakening right after the inventory index peak. NAND flash ASPs have been trending downward since the first quarter of 2018. With the recent inventory correction and short-term CPU shortage, DRAM ASPs are expected to soften in the fourth quarter of 2018. The looming memory market slowdown has memory makers adjusting their capacity expansion plans for the rest of this year. Some new capacity additions, especially for DRAM, have been pushed out to 2019. The memory inventory cycle index has to some extent foretold the slowdown of the memory market. In the second and final part of this article, we will discuss the correlation between the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and China’s semiconductor sales and Purchasing Managers Index. We will also look at the increasing level of memory inventory in the past few quarters and its composition including Work-in-Progress and Finished goods. Clark Tseng is director and Sungho Yoon is senior market research analyst in Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. SEMI World Fab ForecastFor the latest worldwide memory fabs forecast including company details, please see the SEMI World Fab Forecast. The report includes quarter-to-quarter fab data from planning to production for both DRAM and NAND Flash companies.