China

China’s semiconductor sector has exploded to become one of the largest in the world and match the region’s prominence as the biggest consumer of chips. From 2015 to 2020 alone, revenue of China’s integrated circuit (IC) industry expanded at a rapid clip of 20% CAGR (RMB) to $128 billion.

Back in 2012, China ranked fifth among seven regions worldwide in IC wafer capacity but surged past the Americas and Japan in 2018 and 2019 to claim the number three position (figure 1). That’s a big deal given that ICs account for the largest share of wafer capacity excluding discrete, opto, MEMS and sensors.China’s IC wafer capacity growth accelerated to tune of 14% in 2019 and 21% in 2020 and is expected to grow at least 17% this year, as we report in the latest update of the World Fab Forecast, published December 3rd by SEMI. Of all regions, Taiwan boasts the second strongest growth rate over the same period at 3% to 4%.Figure 1: Total IC installed wafer capacity for top five regions The report shows that from 2019 through the end of 2021 China will have increased wafer capacity for memory by 95%, foundry by 47% and analog by 29%. Foundry will represent the largest portion of those gains, reaching 2 million wpm (200mm equivalents). Memory will follow at about 1.5 million wpm and then analog at over 120,000 wpm.But Chinese companies aren’t pulling off this feat singlehandedly. Many international companies are contributing to the wafer capacity increases in China (figure 2). Figure 2: IC wafer capacity in China by company origin The share of capacity contributed by Chinese-owned companies and international companies has changed little since 2012, though Chinese-owned companies saw a slight dip in their slice of the pie from 60% to 57%From 2019 through 2021, Chinese-owned companies will add almost 60% capacity for foundries, the most of all sectors. Companies including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Nexchip, XMC and Hua Li Microelectronics are driving the increases.During the same period, Chinese-owned companies will ramp up memory capacity from basically zero to 300,000 wpm. Companies such as Yangtze Memory Technology and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), also known as Innotron, are powering the quick rise with aggressive ramps of 3D NAND and DRAM capacity.Among international-owned companies, TSMC and UMC are driving the largest share of foundry growth, while Samsung, SK Hynix and Intel are powering gains in memory capacity.More information is available in the World Fab Forecast report. The report currently collects information for fab equipment and construction investment, capacities, technologies and product types for over 280 fabs and lines in China alone, including 40 facilities that either began operation in 2020 or will from 2021 through 2024.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.

The global economy has started down a gradual path to recovery from COVID-19 in recent months as the world continues to combat the virus. Yet one sector – semiconductors – has shown impressive growth powered by a transformation hastened by the pandemic across industries ranging from education and work-from-home to healthcare.Semiconductor sales increased 12% in September to mark a second consecutive month of double-digit growth, and year-to-date semiconductor receipts as of September jumped 5.5% compared to the same period in 2019, according to SIA/WSTS.While this upward trajectory is encouraging, it pales compared to 2020 semiconductor equipment billings growth, with results from SEMI showing worldwide global chip equipment billings in September soaring to a new high of $7.6 billion this year. During the first nine months of 2020, aggregate equipment billings logged a 23.6% rise compared to the same stretch in 2019, surpassing $51 billion. Better still, the total semiconductor equipment market in 2020 is on track to beat the previous high of $64.5 billion set in 2018.Investments in China, Taiwan and Korea are fueling the chipmaking equipment spending surge. With big domestic and international fab projects in the works, China this year is projected to become the world’s largest capital equipment market for the first time, surpassing Taiwan, which will follow at a close second. Korea will rank third in equipment investments. Taiwan and Korea growth will come on the strength of equipment spending for manufacturing leading-edge semiconductors.Equipment billings in North America and Europe declined year-over-year as the automotive and industrial sectors suffered the heaviest blows from COVID-19. Investment momentum in both regions is expected to pick up in 2021 after automotive production recovers to pre-pandemic levels while factory automation will boost industrial demand.For more information about monthly equipment billing trends by region and equipment segment, please see the SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription.Clark Tseng is director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI.

Included in this outlook is a discussion of the financial impact of the current pandemic and a forecast for GDP growth by major region for 2020 and 2021.

All countries and regions have seen a sharp manufacturing slowdown. China, hit hard in February, recovered in March and then dipped in slightly but the balance of the world saw manufacturing plunge in April as COVID-19 forced factory closures. Unemployment skyrocketed and GDPs plunged.

In the past 3 months, silicon wafer shipments leveled off and the YoY growth rate had started to rebound, SEMI reported in Silicon Wafer Market Monitor, a new quarterly report that tracks wafer shipment dynamics including historical shipments, supply & demand shifts, and pricing trends & forecasts.

Plunging stock prices and Coronavirus-driven business shutdowns presently dominate the news. Current economic data, including the recently released February Global Purchasing Manager Index, support earlier negative predictions of an imminent industry decline.

Data through December showed a steady recovery in the global electronic supply chain with SEMI equipment leading the way, but in late January COVID-19 began to make its negative impact felt, snarling supply chains and shutting down factories near Wuhan, China.

We are now in the recovery phase of the current business cycle with SEMI equipment already in a growth mode. However significant economic and geopolitical concerns persist.

Despite recent global economic uncertainties and a downbeat memory market outlook for the second half of 2019, new 300mm fab construction in Korea is still going strong.