China

Broad Global U.S. Electronic Supply Chain GrowthThe first quarter of this year was very strong globally, with growth across the entire electronics supply chain. Although Chart 1 is based on preliminary data, every electronics sector expanded – with many in double digits. The U.S. dollar-denominated growth estimates in Chart 1 have effectively been amplified by about 5 percent by exchange rates (as stronger non-dollar currencies were consolidated to weaker U.S. dollars), but the first quarter global rates are very impressive nonetheless. U.S. growth was also good (Chart 2) with Quarter 1 2018 total electronics equipment shipments up 7.2 percent over the same period last year. Since all the Chart 2 values are based on domestic (US$) sales, there is no growth amplification due to exchange rates.We expect continued growth in Quarter 2 but not at the robust pace as the first quarter.Chip Foundry Growth ResumesTaiwan-listed companies report their monthly revenues on a timely basis – about 10 days after month end. We track a composite of 14 Taiwan Stock Exchange listed chip foundries to maintain a “pulse” of this industry (Chart 3).Chip foundry sales have been a leading indicator for global semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment shipments. After dropping to near zero in mid-2017, foundry growth is now rebounding.Chart 4 compares 3/12 (3-month) growth rates of global semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sales to chip foundry sales. The foundry 3/12 has historically led semiconductors and SEMI equipment and is pointing to a coming cyclical upturn. It will be interesting to see how China’s semiconductor industry buildup impacts this historical foundry leading indicator’s performance. Passive Component Shortages and Price IncreasesPassive component availability and pricing are currently major issues. Per Chart 5, Quarter 1 2018 passive component revenues increased almost 25 percent over the same period last year. Inadequate component supplies are hampering many board assemblers with no short-term relief in sight.Peeking into the FutureLooking forward, the global purchasing managers index (a broad leading indicator) has moderated but is still well in growth territory.The world business outlook remains positive but requires continuous watching!Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics industry.

Fueled by heavy government investment, IC packaging and testing in China generated $29 billion in revenue in 2017, making China the world’s largest consumer of packaging equipment and materials, according to SEMI’s recent China Semiconductor Packaging Industry Outlook report. The report, based on research conducted between July 2017 through the end of January 2018, also revealed that China’s IC packaging and testing industry is more mature than its IC manufacturing and design sectors, though IC packaging and testing revenue growth has slowed in recent years. SEMI surveyed 87 semiconductor packaging- and assembly-related companies for the research report, including key semiconductor packaging manufacturers in China. More than 100 companies compete in China’s packaging and assembly market, including leading multinational companies and emerging domestic players. More than half of China’s packaging companies are located in the Yangzi delta region, while midwestern China has emerged as a hotbed for packaging plants.Additional report highlights: Compared to other world regions, China’s investments in IC packaging and testing saw the fastest growth over the past decade, with domestic manufacturers securing strong support from both national and local governments to ramp capacity and technical capabilities. The top three domestic packaging companies – JCET, Huatian, and TFME – all entered the top 10 global OSAT rankings following expansions and acquisitions from 2012 to early 2016. Packaging companies such as SPIL, TFME, NCAP continue to build new plants. As a major manufacturing region for LED products, China has become more prominent within the semiconductor packaging industry. China’s LED product sector grew to $13.4 billion (half of IC packaging) in 2017. In 2017, China accounted for about 26 percent of the global packaging materials market, with China’s packaging materials revenue forecast to exceed $5.2 billion in 2018. In 2017, the China assembly equipment market reached $1.4 billion in revenue, remaining the world’s largest with 37 percent share. In 2017, assembly equipment manufactured in China (including assembly equipment made by foreign-owned companies and JVs) accounted for 17 percent of China’s assembly equipment market. With the fast growth in the semiconductor packaging market, domestic packaging materials suppliers are expanding with the industry and now starting to serve leading international packaging houses. The SEMI report also elucidates the importance of both central and local government support, guidelines and policies on China’s semiconductor industry. The National Fund and local IC funds, created in 2014, and the Made in China 2025 policy provided a second boost to China’s IC industry growth. For packaging and testing enterprises, maintaining strong communications and relations with relevant government bodies and industry associations is essential to securing both political and financial support, in part because China’s semiconductor manufacturers and IC assembly and packaging companies are expected to purchase equipment and materials made in China.To learn more about this new report, click here.

After a record January, Taiwan-listed electronics companies, many of which manufacture in China, reported significant drops in February sales. A number of events likely contributed: Far fewer working days in February due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns Inflated January production and shipments in anticipation of the February holiday shutdowns Downward adjustment in Apple iPhone X forecasted demand Normal seasonality and traditionally lower post-Christmas consumer products demand – including PCs and mobile phones Results (based upon composite revenues of large groups of Taiwan-listed companies): OEM sales dropped 28 percent from December to January (normal seasonality) and then an additional 24 percent from January to February. This 101-company OEM group saw record high sales in December 2017 followed by a two-year low in February 2018 (Chart 1). ODM sales dropped in sync with OEM sales, with Foxconn/Hon Hai sales declining from 675 billion NT$ (US$22.9 billion) in December to 401 billion NT$ in January and to 278 billion NT$ in February. Chip foundry sales (historically a leading indicator for global semiconductor shipments) also registered a large January to February decline (Chart 2). Other electronics firms (package and test, passive components, printed circuit boards) saw the same type of February declines. We await March results as the sharp February decline is very likely due to multiple causes. Historically, the annual recovery begins in spring.Walt Custer, Custer Consulting Group