semiconductor

Driven by the adoption of evermore electronic components in end products, the semiconductor industry is facing a new era in which device scaling and cost reduction will no longer continue on the path followed for the past few decades. Advanced nodes no longer bring the desired cost benefit, and R D investments in new lithography solutions and devices below 10nm nodes are rising substantially. In order to satisfy market demands, the industry is looking for technology solutions to bridge the gap and improve cost/performance while at the same time adding more functionality through integration.More than-Moore devices (including MEMS and sensors, CMOS Image Sensors, power electronic, along with RF devices) represent this new functional diversification of technologies, combining performance, integration and cost not limited to CMOS scaling, and their importance will become more and more preponderant.In 2017, wafer demand for More than Moore devices1 reached almost 45 million 8-inch eq. wafers. This figure is expected to reach more than 66 million 8-inch eq wafers by 2023, showing an almost 10 percent growth during this period.This increase is supported by the famous megatrends detailed in the new analysis, Wafer Starts for More Than Moore Applications2, performed by Yole Développement (Yole). This analysis is relevant to the following markets: 5G with wireless infrastructure and mobile segments, mobile including additional functionalities, voice processing, smart automotive and electrification, AR/VR3, and AI4.For the first time, the market research and strategy consulting company presents a dedicated technology and market analysis focused on the overall wafer demand for More than Moore devices. The aim of this report is to give an overview of wafer shipments for More than Moore devices, from wafer size to semiconductor material substrate type including silicon, glass, SOI5, SiC6, SiGe7, GaN8, InP9, GaAs10, sapphire and ceramic, and thus identify business opportunities in the More than Moore industry.For over 20 years, Yole has been analyzing the industry evolution, discussing with leading companies to understand market challenges, and identifying technical breakthroughs. The Wafer Starts for More Than Moore Applications report is the result of this 20-year research. Yole’s analysts combine technical and market expertise to describe the More than Moore world. Market size (volume and value), substrate sizes and formats, value chain, technology processes and market drivers, business opportunities and competitive landscape are all part of Yole’s analysis.The various research teams at Yole, encompassing power electronics, imaging and sensing, RF and semiconductor manufacturing, collaborate to present an in-depth understanding of the current market evolution, taking into account innovations and emerging businesses. This methodology allows Yole to cover the overall megatrends and illustrate the links between wafer substrate, device, module, sub-system, system and high-end product.Under this dynamic ecosystem, the deployment of renewable energy sources and industrial motor drives as well as the electrification of the automotive industry are good examples of the impact of megatrends on the semiconductor industry development. They are directly impacting the power devices’ wafer market, resulting in an expected 13 percent CAGR between 2017 and 2023. Already in 2017, this market represented more than 60 percent of the overall wafer market for More than Moore devices, and is currently still dominating the More than Moore industry.5G is one megatrend driving wafer demand. 5G is leading the More than Moore evolution, bringing any service to any user, anywhere. Antennas and filtering functionalities are two of the key innovations of this evolution.Without doubt, the stringent requirements of 5G are driving increasing demand for RF components like RF filters, power amplifiers (PAs), and low-noise amplifiers (LNAs) to ensure access to tomorrow’s radio network.This year, Corning and Menlo Micro announced a major agreement to develop a DMS[11] product platform. Both partners propose an innovative approach based on TGV12 packaging technology. According to both partners, this technical choice allows them to cover operation of frequencies beyond 50GHz. Amongst the numerous megatrends, mobility is not far behind 5G. Demand for advanced mobile applications integrating more and more functionality is growing. In order to compete companies are developing smart combinations of devices such as fingerprint sensors, ambient light sensors, 3D sensing, microphones, and inertial MEMS devices. As an example, impressive developments focused on SOI-based NIR sensors have been released by SOITEC for front-side imager applications including advanced 3D image sensors. This technical evolution will clearly contribute, in the near future, to strong growth of the wafer market for MEMS and sensors. Additionally, the automotive industry, with the development of smart cars, has reached a new level of complexity requiring the development and integration of new sensors. In this context, many companies are aiming to extend their capabilities in ADAS13 and autonomous driving. Recently the leading company On Semiconductor acquired SensL Technologies, the leader in SPAD and LiDAR sensing products for automotive. This acquisition is one sign among many highlighting the evolution of this historic industry, searching for new expertise and welcoming new players, more aware of consumer habits and needs.Yole’s analysts expect smart automobiles to drive consistent growth of CIS14 and sensor wafer production over the next five years. It is fueled by the increasing integration of high-value sensing modules like RADAR, imaging, LiDAR and more. Although automotive will be mainly supported by these growth areas, historic MEMS and sensors such as MEMS pressure sensors and inertial MEMS will continue growing at a reasonable rate, supporting the standard automotive world.Yole Group of Companies including Yole, System Plus Consulting, KnowMade, PISEO and Blumorpho follows and analyzes the industry continuously. The Group has developed in-depth expertise and knowledge focused on the semiconductor manufacturing process and markets. Companies of the Group work together to understand the technical issues, identify business opportunities and propose valuable analyses.Yole invites you to an overview of the Wafer Starts for More Than Moore Applications report during the exclusive online event, titled “Wafer Starts for More than Moore Applications – Webcast”. This hourlong webcast takes place on June 28 at 5:00 PM CEST. The market research company will present key results of this report including megatrends, wafer market evolution and technical trends. Moderated by David Jourdan, Sales Coordination Customer Service at Yole, it welcomes the two leading companies, SPTS (an Orbotech Company) and Corning Precision Glass Solutions: "Trends in Wafer Processing Technologies for RF MEMS" – Speaker David Butler, Executive Vice President and General Manager at SPTS Technologies "Benefits of Through Glass Vias for RF applications" – Speaker: Ravij Parmar, New Product Development Manager for Corning Precision Glass Solutions These results will be also presented by the Semiconductor Software team at SEMICON West (Booth #1320), SEMICON Taiwan and SEMICON Europa (Booth #A-4667). Make sure to meet Yole’s analysts and get a valuable overview of the More than Moore industry. Agenda and more information are available on i-micronew.com. Stay tuned!About the authors:Amandine Pizzagalli is a Technology Market Analyst, Equipment Materials - Semiconductor Manufacturing - at Yole Développement (Yole). Amandine is part of the development of the Semiconductor Software division of Yole with the production of reports and custom consulting projects. She is in charge of comprehensive analyses focused on semiconductor equipment, materials and manufacturing processes. Emilie Jolivet is Director of the Semiconductor Software Division at Yole Développement, part of Yole Group of Companies, where her specific interests cover package assembly, semiconductor manufacturing, memory and software computing fields. 1 Including: MEMS sensors, CIS, and power, photonics and RF devices2 Yole Développement, March 20183 AR/VR : Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality4 AI : Artificial Intelligence.5 SOI : Silicon On Insulator6 SiC : Silicon Carbid7 SiGe: Silicon Germanium8 GaN: Gallium Nitride9 InP: Indium Phosphide10 GaAs : Gallium Arsenide111 DMS : Digital-Micro-Switch12 TGV : Through Glass Via13 ADAS : Autonomous Driving Assistance Service14 CIS : CMOS Image Sensor

Powerful winds of change are re-shaping the semiconductor industry as it flexes and re-positions to power a new wave of growth on the back of emerging applications. Today, the industry is thriving, with growth expected to continue through 2019 even as Moore’s Law – the trusty doubling of transistors roughly every two years – begins to pump the brakes. Product mix and production technology are shifting as the dominant smartphone and PC markets, having seen their growth peaks, start to give way to large markets with relatively low semiconductor penetration, such as automotive.What’s more, new potentially ubiquitous technologies and platforms such as AI, blockchain and smart manufacturing are redefining market dynamics and the semiconductor ecosystem that underlies them.Troublingly, the most significant threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are not of its own making. Macroeconomic trends and trade policy disputes loom.These were some of the key takeaways from the SEMI Market Symposium kicking off SEMICON West in San Francisco this week. Following is a deeper look.Semiconductor MarketThe consensus view, reflected in forecasts presented by Clark Tseng of SEMI and Bob Johnson of Gartner, is that the semiconductor industry could top $500 billion in 2019 after reaching $400 billion in 2017. According to Gartner, smartphones and PCs will continue to account for large parts of the market, but will be displaced as major drivers of market growth by the emergence of industrial, automotive and, to a lesser extent, storage, from 2017 to 2022. Johnson noted that while communications and data processing applications drive logic device demand, average sales prices (ASPs) are a bigger contributor to revenue growth than unit growth.Leading-edge processors are a big part of the ASP picture, with equipment costs increasing ~20 percent per node. One challenge is that as Moore’s Law loses steam, leading logic producers are increasingly going their own way with new production technology. The volatile DRAM market – now in a “super cycle,” according to Tseng, and expected to peak in 2019 – has been stoking memory market growth.Initially, supply shortages fueled memory price increases as three of the four leading memory makers invested in flash rather than DRAM capacity. However, memory prices have been more recently been lifted by technology complexity, particularly as DRAM has moved to 3D architectures. The good news is that pricing, at long last, appears to be driven by value.Automotive MarketWith automotive accounting for less than 10 percent of semiconductor demand, there is room for growth. Rudy Burger of Woodside Partners noted that while the end market for automobiles is growing slowly, at 3 percent CAGR, the market size is nearing 100 million units. In market segments such as electric vehicles, the semiconductor content exceeds $1,000 but can be much higher.For example, the BMW i3 sports over $4,000 in semiconductor content. Burger said connectivity, autonomous driving and shared mobility services are also key opportunities for semiconductors to deepen their penetration in automobiles. For instance, the auto market for cameras, is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2017 to $6 billion in 2022.On average, high-end vehicles feature over $1,000 in semiconductor content, whereas low-end vehicles hover in the $400 range, said Anand Srinivasan of Bloomberg. Because the automotive market is segmented by function or subsystem, with different suppliers focusing on different areas, there is little supply concentration. Srinivasan also pointed out that because of significant differences in their objectives, automotive safety and automation systems should be developed separately.BlockchainThe chief benefit of blockchain is the trust it begets among all parties to a digital transaction through four fundamental features, said David Treat of Accenture: The tracking of provenance (knowing who has touched data, and what has happened to it) Tamper evidence (knowing if someone has tried to change the data) Control (which data elements to share with which parties) Security at the data element level While most of the hype over blockchain focuses on tokenized assets and ledgers (bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies), the fundamental application in the semiconductor industry is sharing trusted access to reference data at the data element level. This ability to provide shared trust can reduce costs throughout the supply chain and across enterprises. For example, future blockchain implementations will offer a full ecosystem view to any supply chain participant. While blockchain has typically been deployed through centralized control or platforms, peer consortia, such as SEMI, could help weave the benefits of blockchain through various ecosystems by enabling equipment and material suppliers, device manufacturers, designers and system integrators to share business and technical information securely and, if desired, anonymously.Global and Macroeconomic TrendsThe biggest threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are exogenous. After a decade of steady recovery since the financial crisis, the global economy appears to be heading for a slowdown. Duncan Meldrum of Hilltop Economics made the case that the global economy is at or just past the peak of the business cycle, and semiconductor equipment is past the peak.A key indicator of a looming recessionary is the movement toward an inverted yield curve, in which long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates – a phenomena that could materialize this year or next.The increasingly heated trade climate, marked by high-stakes confrontations between the U.S. and China, threatens complex supply chain arrangements, though mercurial policy statements could do even more harm than stiffer trade tariffs. Underscoring competing interests between the U.S. and China and the unpredictability of their relations, Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors pointed out that, in 2019, 60 percent of all semiconductors are expected to be used in China, deepening the dependency of several U.S. semiconductor companies on China.Paul Semenza, for SEMI Industry Research and Statistics

White House-led panel to address U.S. goal to lead in development of next-generation microelectronicsSEMICON West next week will host a White House-led discussion of the anticipated national leadership strategy for semiconductors, a multi-agency initiative led by top U.S. government national security and economic organizations.Next Wednesday, July 11, a panel of U.S. officials representing agencies involved in leading the strategy will address federal research and development (R D), investment and acquisition priorities aimed at ensuring the U.S. remains the global leader in the semiconductor industry.As global economic trends and technologies such as artificial intelligence evolve, and foreign governments increasingly lure microelectronics manufacturing investments overseas, the U.S. strategy for manufacturing advanced semiconductors and driving research and development (R D) in technology innovation has become an economic priority.The White House selected SEMICON West, organized by SEMI, as the site for the discussion and this urgent call to action because of the event’s central role in bringing together critical industries across the global electronics supply chain. The multi-agency panel will outline activities and new policies under development to ensure U.S. strategic leadership in microelectronics, including focused investment in innovations key to the next generation of devices for commercial and government use. The initiative also includes public-private partnerships to accelerate the capabilities of advanced semiconductors for critical applications such as artificial intelligence (AI), cyber, secure communications, the internet of things (IoT) and big data analytics.MEDIA WHO WISH TO ATTEND MUST CONTACT IN ADVANCE SCOTT STEVENS AT +1.512.288.4050 TO OBTAIN ACCESS BADGES PANEL: National Strategy for Semiconductor and Microelectronic Innovation TIME AND DATE: 10:30 to 11:30 a.m., Wednesday, July 11 LOCATION: Yerba Buena Theater, 700 Howard St., San Francisco MODERATOR: Dr. Lloyd Whitman, Principal Assistant Director, Physical Sciences and Engineering, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy PANELISTS: Dr. Sankar Basu, Program Director, Computer and Information Science and Engineering, National Science Foundation Dr. Eric W. Forsythe, Flexible Electronics Team Leader, U.S. Army Research Laboratory Dr. Jeremy Muldavin, Deputy Director of Defense Software Microelectronics Activities, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Systems Engineering Dr. Robinson Pino, Acting Research Division Director, Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Office of Science, Department of Energy SEMICON West is organized by SEMI Americas to connect more than 2,000 member companies and 1.3 million professionals worldwide to advance the technology and business of electronics manufacturing. SEMICON West is celebrating its 47th year as the flagship event for the semiconductor industry. Find more at www.semiconwest.org.MEDIA CONTACTS:Mike Hall, SEMI Global, +1.408.943.7988Scott Stevens, for SEMI Americas, +1.512.288.4050

Strong global semiconductor industry growth is helping power rapid expansion of China’s IC manufacturers in 2018, and continuing technology innovation is inspiring the region’s optimism over the long term, said Du Shanshan, senior analyst of SEMI China, at the recent SEMI China Member Day. The chief driving force behind this year’s growth of China’s IC industry is its equipment and materials market, with the sector riding a wave of a strengthening industrial infrastructure, a rapid increase of wafer manufacturing capacity, global leadership in new fab projects and large memory investments, Shanshan added. NAURA, a leading domestic provider of high-end IC equipment, is seeing robust growth after its push to recruit highly skilled talent and bolster its technology infrastructure, customer service system and supply chain, said Zhou Yang, vice president of Procurement at NAURA, which hosted the event. Yang said the key to NAURA’s success has been its unblinking focus on technology, product quality, fast product delivery, responsiveness to customer needs, cost controls, and environmental and social responsibility. Before visiting a NAURA factory, attendees reflected on how China’s IC manufacturers, using equipment and materials sourced domestically, seized the opportunity of global semiconductor growth to drive rapid local expansion. Excited about the growth potential of China's chip industry, members expressed their commitment to contributing to its independence and self-reliance. SEMI China Membership Grows Opening SEMI China Member Day, SEMI China president Lung Chu highlighted another expansion – SEMI China’s membership growth to nearly 400 companies, behind only the U.S. and Japan. Chu credited the increase, in part, to the steady growth of the global semiconductor industry. Chu said the increase also stems from the recognition that SEMI China is the China semiconductor industry’s best partner for fulfilling its ambition of becoming a more prominent player on the world stage. SEMI China’s member services platform that includes exhibitions and conferences, industry technical standards, industry research and analysis, a publicity apparatus and a talent development initiative provides powerful ways for the industry to Connect, Collaborate and Innovate. The platform enabled SEMICON China 2018 to set a booth and visitor record for the event, with attendees numbering 91,252, a highly successful 32 percent year-over-year growth. More than 50 SEMI member companies attended the 2018 SEMI China Member Day on June 6th in Beijing to explore opportunities for the global and Chinese semiconductor industry. Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.

Part 2 of this two-part piece examines the potential benefits to be realized by pairing human Subject Matter Experts with smart silicon assistants, and what these new arrangements mean for semiconductor device manufacturing. Part 1 explores best-practice perspectives on collecting and utilizing smart data in industries outside semiconductor manufacturing, one of the important takeaways from the Smart Manufacturing panel discussion at SEMI ASMC 2018. So what does this observation (i.e. the field of medicine, in what seems at first glance a big data environment, is really just clusters and clusters of loose small data connected by the collective neural network of highly trained doctors and their colleagues) mean for semiconductor manufacturing? We think it means we need to apply the same level of intense focus that we already devote to instrumented data collection and analytics in the fab to something more: we need to better capture the vast expertise of our engineering and operational talent in semiconductor manufacturing. We think we need to record what the subject matter experts (SMEs) in the fab see, hear, and think as they investigate yield excursions or machine-down problems. We need to effectively combine product, process, equipment and component subject matter expertise / subject matter experts (SME) with big data analytics to more effectively solve manufacturing problems, be they killer or be they chronic. And we must provide structured methods for incorporating inputs from and active participation of SMEs throughout the data analysis lifecycle, from collection and aggregation, through filtering, feature extraction, analysis and optimization. Some of the challenge will be in just how do we make it easy to gather information from SMEs in real time, while standing in front of equipment in the fab. Internet of Things (Iot) devices are emerging to capture and label images and sounds to enable machine learning algorithms to recognize and help diagnose manufacturing problems based on sight and sound, complementing the instrumented data. But we also need to record the thought processes our human SMEs go through in those investigations – perhaps by the SMEs talking to a smart AI-based conversational assistant who helps make “rounds.” Doing contextual analysis on this added data, combined with the instrumented data, will create the equation Human + Machine = AI (Awesome Insight). Sounds reasonable, right? We think artificial intelligence becomes too artificial if you leave the human out of the equation. AI should be augmented intelligence, where we take the expertise and creativity of the human, and combine it with the rapid computational capabilities of the computer, in order to put problem identification and solutions on steroids. But with the already huge advancements to date in data analytics, cloud, and the emergence of AI, why do improvements in quality, machine utilization, and the implementation of predictive analytics in semiconductor manufacturing seem to be creeping along incrementally, and not appearing as dramatic, step-function improvements? Call it Smart Manufacturing, call it Connected Enterprise, call it Advanced Manufacturing, or Analytics, or Cloud, or the Digital Twin … there are no shortages of terms, philosophies, and technologies available, but why aren’t we seeing their rapid adoption? It could be it’s the downside that comes with needing people. “Good business leaders create a vision, articulate the vision, passionately own the vision, and relentlessly drive it to completion.” Jack Welch. We see from other industries that smart manufacturing conversations originating with the executives of a company thinking to implement smart manufacturing programs lead to vision; however, we also see from other industries, and from our own, that realizing this vision has often been a challenge. Why is that? One reason may be that the people who are personally vested in solutions they implemented in the past, as well as those who follow a pattern of ‘how we’ve always done things’, create, inadvertently or not, persistent internal barriers hindering innovative action. Another may be that engagements with the working engineers and managers charged to be smart manufacturing implementers leads to the pursuit of low-hanging fruit, and cautious investments, that often utilize solutions that ultimately cannot scale and integrate. Not to mention the disadvantage of dealing with the legacy equipment, the legacy networks, the traditional thinking, and the lack of consistency in metrics adding to the confusion. Addressing all these barriers requires an alignment in strategy and execution, along with a plan to support the overall vision, often across the entire enterprise, which is no small matter. And then there are the standards. Having and adhering to standards in control solutions, networks, and data becomes critical in achieving real benefits from smart manufacturing. And data security. One of the other big impediments in the smart manufacturing transformation is data and IP security, another key concern (maybe the most significant) preventing us from moving forward more quickly (e.g. to cloud-based solutions) in our industry. More about that in a follow-up. Achieving synergy across all of manufacturing, from connecting equipment horizontally, through the production system (machines processes), and vertically, through enterprise systems and across production facilities, can only occur if we build standards, security, infrastructure, and human engagement throughout our ecosystem and supply chain. In simple form, the steps to do so include connecting assets, collecting and contextualizing data, and then driving business transformation with actionable insights gained from the data. With impact on every function, and every person, in the enterprise, from equipment operators in the fab through the C-Suite in HQ. Maintenance, Engineering, R D, Operations, Scheduling, IT, Procurement, Finance, HR all contribute, collaborate and benefit. Regardless of the technology, from device level analytics to predictive maintenance and optimization, the people that reside in these disparate groups need to come together with the smart machines to create a common strategy to achieve transformational results. Aligning an enterprise’s goals with its human capital is paramount to success. Therefore, we must challenge our team members and ourselves to work outside our comfort zones, and we need to be forever aware of the need for us to grow with the technology. Smart manufacturing is not necessarily about having fewer people in the fab, but it does suggest having people in the fab, perhaps with different, or upgraded, skill sets, who are even more efficient in their roles as a result of the boost they are getting from Industry 4.0. Fortunately, we now have techniques that let us combine the best, brightest, and latest and greatest analytics with our invaluable SMEs throughout the data analysis lifecycle. We’ll not only be able to deliver higher quality semiconductor manufacturing solutions all in all, but we’ll also be providing methods to more easily distribute, scale, maintain, and continually refine those hard-earned solutions. We expect that subject matter experts will continue to put the “smart” in machine-based smart manufacturing today, and for the foreseeable future. SME contributions are not an option, but, rather, an imperative for ensuring a semiconductor manufacturer’s sustained prosperity, much less its survival. Nancy Greco (IBM Watson), Dave Mayewski (Rockwell Automation), James Moyne (University of Michigan / Applied Materials), and Paul Werbaneth (Intevac, Inc.), along with Julie Jacob (Ernst Young), and Carson Henry (Micron Technology), were members of the SEMI ASMC 2018 panel discussing Industry 4.0 and the Future of Commercial Semiconductor Device Manufacturing. All opinions here are purely our own. Please contact Paul Werbaneth via email at [email protected]. The SEMICON West (July 9-11, 2018, in San Francisco) Smart Manufacturing Pavilion features working production equipment on the floor and three full days of speakers providing insights on building the infrastructure needed to enable AI. Equipment from Bosch Rexroth, Cimetrix, Rudolph Technologies, INFICON, Final Phase Systems, OMRON, DISCO and Edwards Vacuum will showcase cutting-edge smart manufacturing technologies. For information on the SEMI Smart Manufacturing initiative and how to get involved, please click here.

Part 1 of this two-part piece explores best-practice perspectives on collecting and utilizing smart data in industries outside semiconductor manufacturing, one of the important takeaways from the Smart Manufacturing panel discussion at SEMI ASMC 2018. Part 2 examines the potential benefits to be realized by pairing human Subject Matter Experts with smart silicon assistants, and what these new arrangements mean for semiconductor device manufacturing. The spacecraft Discovery and its HAL 9000 computer system had a digital twin. Did you know? Stanley Kubrick’s seminal film “2001: A Space Odyssey” had its theatrical release 50 years ago this April. “2001” isn’t just a great science fiction film. Rather, it’s a great work of cinema overall, across any category. (The American Film Institute lists “2001” as #15 in the AFI Top 100; a bit below “Vertigo,” a bit above “It’s A Wonderful Life.”) It’s a film so distinguished and so prescient that its lessons can inform our thinking about smart manufacturing, Industry 4.0, and artificial intelligence (AI) today. Not to give too much away, but the earth-bound digital twin of Discovery / HAL identifies a diagnostic error the onboard, Jupiter-bound HAL 9000 has made, things go awry from there, and one of the mission pilots, astronaut Dave Bowman, is forced to intervene. At the recent SEMI Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference, ASMC 2018, on 02 May 2018 in Saratoga Springs, NY, five diverse panelists representing capital equipment, IDMs, academia, the semiconductor supply chain, and smart manufacturing best practices outside the semiconductor industry engaged in a lively discussion with the ASMC attendees. They explored where “smart” is in our industry today, where it’s headed, and what that’s going to mean for us -- the professionals who have brought semiconductor manufacturing to the current state of smart, and are looking to implement an ever-smarter tomorrow. Not to give too much away, but the panelists and audience agreed that there’s nothing artificial about pairing human intelligence with machine-based smart manufacturing. Implementing an ever-smarter tomorrow in semiconductor manufacturing requires smart people just as much as it requires smart machines. Moving towards “smart” means understanding how to derive useful information and actionable intelligence from the ever-increasing pool of big data created during semiconductor manufacturing. Modern manufacturing sites are extensively instrumented today, and create massive amounts of data to consume, decipher, base decisions upon, or discard. As we dig into this problem we realize that equipment and processes in our industry are both obviously complex, but, also, subtly complex. Semiconductor manufacturing tools easily contain 100s to 1000s of components working together to produce nanometer scale, angstrom scale, or even atomic scale features using complex chemical, physical, and plasma processes. There is a plethora of potential failure points and modes, and despite our best efforts to collect more data, many processes continue to be only poorly observable. On top of that, semiconductor fabrication processes are always drifting, and the operational context is continually changing as we change product mix, process maintenance swap-out kit components, and operating conditions and recipes. Sounds like … hospitals, and healthcare? When you see your doctor, she will collect and look at your instrumented data – blood work, blood pressure, weight, and other quantifiable factors. But, typically, your doctor won’t draw a conclusion based on that analysis alone. Rather, your doctor will sit with you, ask probing questions, and record what she asked, your responses, and what she saw, what she heard, and what she thought. Then she’ll build a hypothesis, combining the “anecdotal” data with the instrumented data, and derive from that data set both a likely diagnosis and an effective course of action. In this case, beyond the instrumented data, two humans, and their natural language input, are part of the equation: the patient, with his observations and thoughts, as well as the doctor, with hers. And it’s been a formula for success. Healthcare has made huge, step-function improvements across a spectrum of deadly diseases, as well as with less-deadly chronic afflictions, by harvesting this complex input, committing the proven disease presentation – disease diagnosis – and disease treatment models to medicine’s collective memory, and then teaching the next generation of healthcare providers both the general methods and the standard protocols essential to maintaining good health and successful outcomes. Maybe, in medicine, what seems a big data environment is really just clusters and clusters of loose small data connected by the collective neural network of highly trained doctors and their colleagues. Nancy Greco (IBM Watson), Dave Mayewski (Rockwell Automation), James Moyne (University of Michigan / Applied Materials), and Paul Werbaneth (Intevac, Inc.), along with Julie Jacob (Ernst Young), and Carson Henry (Micron Technology), were members of the SEMI ASMC 2018 panel discussing Industry 4.0 and the Future of Commercial Semiconductor Device Manufacturing. All opinions here are purely our own. Please contact Paul Werbaneth via email at [email protected]. The SEMICON West (July 9-11, 2018, in San Francisco) Smart Manufacturing Pavilion features working production equipment on the floor and three full days of speakers providing insights on building the infrastructure needed to enable AI. Equipment from Bosch Rexroth, Cimetrix, Rudolph Technologies, INFICON, Final Phase Systems, OMRON, DISCO and Edwards Vacuum will showcase cutting-edge smart manufacturing technologies. For information on the SEMI Smart Manufacturing initiative and how to get involved, please click here.

The fast-growing automotive semiconductor market means big change for the IC supply chain. Beyond the obvious demands for reliability and traceability, the sector is moving towards simpler and lower-cost solutions while facing the daunting challenge of automating driving in a complex world. The need for simpler and cheaper automotive intelligence will likely drive acquisitions to build complete platform solutions that are easier to integrate. This demand has already spawned a market for pre-configured test cars to save developers time and money, and is driving LiDAR (Light Detection And RADAR) towards lower-cost, solid state solutions. “The growth of the automotive electronics market provides a great opportunity for the IC supply chain to differentiate on specialty processes and quality for the high-volume automotive business with its long design cycles,” says Scott Jones, principal, strategy, at KPMG, who will speak in the automotive program at SEMICON West. “This differentiation is a chance to reduce chip suppliers’ dependence on scaling volume for the mobile phone world with its short-cycle volatility of winning and losing sockets.” He notes that increasing demand for automotive ICs is also reinvigorating the eight-inch supply chain and spurring opportunity for specialty products such as compound semiconductor devices for power efficiency. Supplying the automotive market also means addressing automotive reliability requirements, which can be 10 times more stringent than for consumer devices. At the same time, the industry must sustain fast-paced development cycles required for the volume and diversity of low-cost IoT devices, manage the segmented supply chain for both those markets, and still spread development costs. Another big challenge for the supply chain will be to automate testing and update vast amounts of embedded software in these automotive devices. “The more complete solution a company can put together, the more the automakers will gravitate to it. They want simplicity,” Jones suggests. Smaller players will need to differentiate with IP and acquire other IP provider to build a broader platform, or be acquired and folded into an all-in-one solution.AutonomouStuff helps accelerate and simplify development of autonomous driving solutionsAutonomouStuff is helping to speed development of these platforms. The company has grown from a sensor distributor into a supplier in the emerging niche of vehicles preconfigured with key interfaces for sensors and controls. These interfaces can then be customized by integrating different components for developers to test their applications. AutonomouStuff offers developers a lineup of vehicle models pre-configured with the interfaces needed to add desired chips, sensors and software to develop their autonomous vehicle systems. Source: AutonomouStuff.“Whether they’re major chipmakers or AI software startups, they don’t have a year to build their own vehicle platforms themselves for developing autonomous vehicle systems,” says Wolfgang Juchmann, VP sales and business development at AutonomouStuff. Juchmann, a SEMICON West speaker, will bring a demonstration vehicle to the show. “In four to six weeks we can prepare a custom test car with selected sensors, enabling users to start testing their computer platforms and software. It’s faster and more cost-effective for us to supply the car with the needed interfaces.” He notes that developers are using some 300 AutonomouStuff vehicles in the field. AutonomouStuff customers are starting to transition from testing on a single car or two to testing on mini-fleets with 50 to 100 vehicles. Beyond sensors and pre-configured vehicles, the next step will be to add more data intelligence services to help with capabilities like tagging the data for training, Juchmann says. AutonomouStuff already offers hardware to support Baidu’s Apollo open-source software stack and data set. The company was recently acquired by the Swedish holding company Hexagon to help support expansion.CMOS silicon LiDAR nears automotive qualificationInnovations in the hyper-competitive LiDAR market, where burgeoning demand is driving the race to develop various types of solid-state devices, may also help reduce the cost of autonomous vehicles. Among the roughly 40 LiDAR suppliers, at least one – Quanergy – is taking advantage of 45nm and 32nm foundry CMOS volume production. The company uses voltage through the semiconductor stack to change the refractive index, controlling the phases of optical beams and the resulting interference patterns of light exiting the chip to quickly steer the laser beam without the need for moving parts, much like the phased array radar its team developed earlier. Solid state LiDAR image with object recognition software. Source: QuanergySo far, most of the small LiDAR units have shipped to the security, industrial automation, drone, robots and 3D mapping markets. However, Quanergy CEO Louay Eldada, another SEMICON speaker, says the company is also winning automotive designs and expects automotive shipments to take off early next year, once automotive certification testing is completed. “We can get design wins because standard CMOS production at TSMC makes us a known entity,” says Eldada. To prevent component misalignment, the company produces its own specialized packaging to secure the laser, phase control ASIC, optical phased-array emitter, detector array, and receiver readout ASIC at its plant in Silicon Valley or the facility of its automotive partner Sensata. Through its software business, Quanergy offers an artificial intelligence (AI) perception program for object recognition and LiDAR tracking. The solution uses the people-tracker software the company acquired from Raytheon.SEMICON West this year expands to three full days of automotive electronics programming and features a Smart Transportation Pavilion. Other companies with experts who will speak as part of the program include XPT/NIO, Infineon, McKinsey, Voyage, GM Cruise, Bosch, Deepen AI, Airbus A3, Nvidia, Excelfore, Byton, Macronix, SK Hynix, SAP, Xilinx, Achronics, California Fuel Cell Partnership, Velodyne, Lam Research, KLA-Tencor, SCREEN, Rockwell, Versum Materials, TechSearch International, Entegris, ASE, Amazon, Continental and Wind River. www.semiconwest.orgPaul Doe, SEMI

Device manufacturers continue to invest. Spending in cloud data center (compute, networking and storage), automotive (content per car increases), industrial (on content, factory automation, and positive macro trends), and consumer (gaming) end-markets is particularly strong. We see capital expenditure growth in 2018 and early indications pointing to sustainable spending into 2019. We also expect 14 percent increase (YoY) for fab equipment spending in 2018, up from the February forecast of 9 percent, and expect 9 percent increase in 2019, adjusted from the February forecast of 5 percent. 92 future facilities/lines with various probabilities are scheduled to start production in 2018 or later. Fab investment is just one indicator of how growing demand in areas such as from Artificial Intelligence (AI), cloud/data storage, automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) is driving unprecedented spending in the semiconductor industry. Below are a few highlights* of recent SEMI FabView insights. Details of each project can be found in FabView online 24/7 or World Fab Forecast report (Excel format). Infineon’s new 300mm Fab in Austria - Infineon is planning a new 300mm thin wafer Fab for Power Devices in Villach, Austria. Rumors on Toshiba’s new Fab plans - More 3D NAND fabs in the future at Toshiba are feasible. The timing will depend on market conditions, and our forecast will adjust accordingly. Vanguard's possible 300mm foundry fab - Vanguard's management said it might buy or build a 300mm fab in the near future as all 200mm fabs are essentially full. Powerchip plans to build new memory fab in Taiwan - Powerchip is investing more in expansions since Memory pricing is holding up. Rohm announced to build a new SiC fab in Fukuoka Japan - Rohm announced its plans to build a new SiC fab. Micron is building a new fab in Singapore - Micron broke ground in a ceremony for a new fab in Singapore on April 4, 2018. Bosch had groundbreaking ceremony of their 300mm fab in Dresden end April 2018 - Investment of 1 billion Euro. This is the biggest single investment in Bosch’s 130-year history. SEMI FabView, a mobile-friendly, interactive version of SEMI’s popular World Fab Forecast, delivers on-demand fab information such as fab spending and capacity for over 1,100 facilities, including over 82 planned facilities worldwide, across a wide range of product segments including Power, GPU, Memory, Foundry, MEMS and Sensors fabs. Fab data include region, start of construction, operation, construction and equipment spending, capacity, wafer sizes, product types and geometries. SEMI FabView subscribers receive forecast model updates through SEMI’s World Fab Database. Click here for a trial to experience SEMI FabView first hand. *Actual updates provide more detail Christian G. Dieseldorff and Clark Tseng, Industry Research Statistics Group, SEMI.

The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), based on findings from its Section 301 investigation into China's trade practices, today announced a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion in Chinese goods including many products in the semiconductor supply chain.Products such as test and inspection equipment and spare parts that enter the U.S. from China will be subject to this tariff, which enters into force on July 6, 2018. About 80 percent of the semiconductor products originally proposed remain on the final list of tariffs.USTR also has proposed tariffs on more than $16 billion worth of goods including chemicals as well as machines and spare parts that are used to manufacture semiconductor devices, wafers, flat panel displays, and masks, all of which would squarely strike the semiconductor industry. This new proposed list includes products identified by the U.S. government that have particularly benefited from Chinese industrial policies such as “Made in China 2025.” SEMI is set to voice its opposition to these tariffs with written comments and at an upcoming public hearing.Over the past month, SEMI has submitted written comments and offered testimony on the damaging impact that tariffs would have on the U.S. semiconductor industry. While SEMI strongly supports efforts to better protect valuable intellectual property, we believe that these tariffs will do nothing to address U.S. concerns over China’s trade practices. Instead, the tariffs will harm companies in the semiconductor supply chain by increasing business costs, introducing uncertainty and stifling innovation.SEMI will continue to engage with lawmakers as the $34 billion in tariffs take effect and the proposed $16 billion in duties remain under consideration. We encourage members to review this list and determine the level, if any, of impact. If you have questions or concerns, please reach out to Jay Chittooran, Public Policy Manager at SEMI, at [email protected].

Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research Statistics Group, SEMI (June 12, 2018)The semiconductor industry is nearing a third consecutive year of record equipment spending with projected growth of 14 percent (YOY) in 2018 and 9 percent in 2019, a mark that would extend the streak to a historic fourth consecutive growth year, according to the latest update of the World Fab Forecast report published by SEMI. The industry last saw four consecutive years of equipment spending growth in the mid 1990s.Korea and China are leading the growth, with Samsung dominating global spending and ascendant China on a fast, steep rise, surging ahead of all other markets. See figure 1.Figure 1: equipment spending by region (includes new and refurbished)Samsung is expected to reduce equipment investments in 2018. Despite the ebb, the company still accounts for a dominant 70 percent of all investment in Korea. At the same time, SK Hynix is increasing its equipment spending in Korea.China’s equipment spending is forecast to jump a whopping 65 percent in 2018 and 57 percent in 2019. Notably, 58 percent of investments in China in 2018 and 56 percent in 2019 stem from companies with headquarters in other regions such as Intel, SK Hynix, TSMC, Samsung, and GLOBALFOUNDRIES. Domestic, Chinese-owned companies – backed by large government initiatives – are building an impressive number of new fabs that will start equipping in 2018. The companies will double their equipment investments in 2018 and again in 2019.Meanwhile, other regions are also ramping up investments. Japan is beefing up equipment spending by 60 percent in 2018, with the largest increases by Toshiba, Sony, Renesas and Micron.The Europe and Mideastern region will boost investments by 12 percent in 2018, with Intel, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Infineon and ST Microelectronics as the largest contributors. Southeast Asia will increase investments by more than 30 percent in 2018, although total spending is proportionately smaller than in other regions owing to its size. The main contributors are Micron, Infineon and GLOBALFOUNDRIES, though companies including OSRAM and ams are also increasing investments.The SEMI World Fab Forecast, which also includes information on other companies, covers data and predictions through the end of 2019, including milestones, detailed investments by quarter, product types, technology nodes and capacities down to fab and project level.Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at:www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.