Semiconductor Equipment

SEMI spoke with Eyal Shekel, senior vice president of Service Strategy and Excellence at Tokyo Electron Limited, about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on smart manufacturing and how other fab solutions for smarter process tools are advancing semiconductor manufacturing.Eyal shared his views ahead of his presentation at the SEMI Fab Management Forum, 17 February, as part of the SEMI Technology Unites Global Summit, 15-19 February 2021, an online event. Join us to meet experts from Tokyo Electron and other key industry influencers. Registration is open. SEMI: AI technology is considered a key enabler for smart manufacturing. What are the latest trends? Shekel: The advent of advanced nodes and extreme complex 3D semiconductor geometry has lengthened time to market and increased costs in areas ranging from equipment development and large-scale metrology usage to monitoring yield inhibitors.AI is becoming a critical tool in the area of material informatics to determine suitable materials and processing techniques in order to meet the needs of future devices. Together with new materials and processes, the development and implementation of virtual metrology will enable accurate and almost absolute real-time monitoring of our customers’ device wafers at each stage of the manufacturing process.SEMI: What are the benefits of data analysis in the process from R D and Ramp-Up to High-Volume Manufacturing? Shekel: The new research field of materials informatics enabled by AI provides tools to guide the highly efficient discovery and optimization of production processes. For example, TEL has developed methodologies for co-optimizing processes and materials for etch rates.To monitor and manage the yield of semiconductor fabrication processes, direct metrology measurements are important. However, it is difficult to monitor all production wafers due to the time and cost involved. With deep learning AI, it is now becoming possible to predict every wafer’s metrology measurements based on production equipment data and previously processed wafer metrology variables. This enables total quality management and run-to-run control, while simultaneously reducing production costs and cycle time.SEMI: Can you tell us more about TEL Service Advantage?Shekel: TEL Service Advantage is a TEL global support organization that allows customers to select a service plan that fits their needs. Through TEL Service Advantage, we can quickly respond to customer requests and technical advancements. TEL Service Advantage provides various plans to maximize equipment maintenance efficiency for customers and productivity from equipment manufactured by TEL. TEL Service Advantage plans can be combined to meet customer needs and achieve maximum results.A key enabling element of TEL Service Advantage is TELeMetrics™. TEL analyzes equipment data from various sensors using a remote connection and, based on that analysis, provides solutions to customer-specific problems around equipment throughput and predictive maintenance.SEMI: How is AI helping during the pandemic? Can you share a success story? Shekel: The pandemic forced severe travel restrictions worldwide, making it very difficult or even impossible in many cases to visit our customers, as it is still the case today. Standard communication devices like smartphones and email helped at the beginning when TEL intensified the remote support by our Total Support Centre (TSC).TEL continued to develop its Service Advantage program quickly, and started using additional advanced tools and methodologies such as the following: Deployed AR (Augmented Reality) to remotely assist our customer and TEL engineers Secured remote connections into TEL tools to investigate parameters and logs, or to change set-up Used remote training courses that connects trainers via video conferencing systems and training tools in the factories to skill up engineers located in a different parts of the world Used AR glasses for tool start-up and troubleshooting Expanded TEL database global technology with multi-tool on languages search capabilities A key project at a customer site in Europe offers an excellent success story. Using all the approaches above, we collaborated with the local team to put a tool into production with no major delays. This was highly appreciated by the customer and very important for us.SEMI: What do you predict for the future? Shekel: Global technology infrastructure continues to develop and expand rapidly. Elements like 5G networks, IoT and advanced sensing capabilities will lead to what we call General AI, which will be based on neuro-like infrastructure. The auto learning will spread across domains and rely on internal logic and reasoning to automate many tasks that are manual today. In our industry in particular, General AI will enable workers to focus more on data analytics and future advanced R D rather than ongoing operations.SEMI: How can technology unite us? What do you expect from your participation at SEMI Technology Unites Global Summit?Shekel: Technology united us in the last 150 years. The connectivity started with telegraph and telephone and was used to exchange information over wider distances. Nowadays, video conference capabilities, AR and improving communications technology makes it much easier to unite people who are geographically dispersed. This becomes obvious and valuable especially during this pandemic period. As a fact, we are able to continue to perform all our key activities – our tool support, training and customer relationships – even if we cannot be present in person.The SEMI Technology Unites Global Summit is a great chance to stay connected to people and customers that I would normally meet at the SEMICON exhibitions.It also offers the opportunity to network with many more people who I would not be able to meet otherwise. Moreover, I can watch speeches and presentations at any time! Normally I would miss some programs since exhibitions and events took place at the same time.Eyal Shekel, senior vice president of Service Strategy and Excellence at Tokyo Electron Europe Limited, is a 27-year semiconductor industry veteran. Upon his graduation as a Mechanical Engineer from the Technion (Israel leading technical institute), he joined Applied Materials. In 1997 he moved on to Tokyo Electron (TEL) in Europe, served as the Regional Service Manager of Israel and, soon after, was appointed the company’s General Manager. Since 2005 Eyal has been part of TEL Europe senior management. He oversaw the Service and Support Operations for TEL Europe as a senior vice president until 2019. In his current role, he co-leads TEL’s Global Service Committee in Japan.The SEMI SMART Manufacturing Initiative is a global effort to promote awareness of and interest in smart manufacturing with a focus on delivering industry-recognized best-in-class programs and services to enable members to maximize product quality and productivity while reducing costs. Activities are focused on building out core capabilities to enable smart manufacturing across the microelectronics supply chain. MADEin4 is a consortium of 47 partners from 10 countries connecting the full range of supply chain – from semiconductor equipment manufacturers and system-integrating metrology companies to RTOS and key applications such as the automotive industry. The MADEin4 Project develops next generation metrology tools, machine learning methods and applications in support of Industry 4.0 high-volume manufacturing in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Serena Brischetto is senior manager of Marketing and Communications at SEMI Europe.

All countries and regions have seen a sharp manufacturing slowdown. China, hit hard in February, recovered in March and then dipped in slightly but the balance of the world saw manufacturing plunge in April as COVID-19 forced factory closures. Unemployment skyrocketed and GDPs plunged.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a state of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka and five other prefectures[1] on April 7 in response to a startling increase of COVID-19 infections in the region’s cities in an uneasy moment for its domestic semiconductor industry. The declaration, effective through May 6, authorized the six prefectural governors to strengthen curbs on the spread of the virus and included guidance for citizens to stay home and restrictions on operations of non-essential businesses.With Japan supplying some 40 percent of the world’s chip production equipment and materials, the declaration stirred fears among semiconductor manufacturers that their uninterrupted operations – critical to sustaining the global industry – might be at risk. Japan Government Designates Semiconductor Industry as EssentialIn April 7 and 11 revisions to its Basic Policies for Novel Coronavirus Disease Control, the Japanese government allayed those concerns by designating semiconductor manufacturers essential businesses – a stark acknowledgment of the chipmakers’ vital role in combatting the novel coronavirus. The policy stated:“Among medical and manufacturing industries, we request the continuation of the following business operators in consideration of infection prevention: operators who are difficult to stop production line due to the characteristics of the equipment (such as blast furnaces and semiconductor factories); and operators who produce essentials (including important items in supply chains) for protection of the people who need medical care and support, as well as for maintenance of social infrastructure. We also request the continuation of the business operators who sustain medical care, the lives of the people, and maintenance of the national economy.”[2]SEMI Japan Reaches Out to Prefectures to Urge Essential Business Designation Equipment and materials shortages can halt production of an entire fab line and ripple through intricately connected global supply chains to stifle the production of end devices including the electronics critical to COVID-19 treatments. Electronic devices also play a central role in containing the virus’s spread by enabling artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, digital communications, telemedicine, robotics, remote health monitoring, telecommuting, online shopping and other digital services.The essential business designation was explicit recognition that Japan’s semiconductor supply chain is integral to the global chip production ecosystem and worthy of the same protections the government has implemented for semiconductor companies. With SEMI members operating in Japan’s 47 prefectures, I sent letters to all prefectural governors three days after the second policy revision, urging them to apply the same designation, and the SEMI Japan team is following up to secure their support.SEMI Japan Encourages Government to Exempt Members from Travel Restrictions The Japan Foreign Ministry on March 31 raised to level 3 its travel advisory for 49 regions including the U.S., China, Taiwan and South Korea, encouraging Japanese citizens to avoid travel regardless of purpose to blunt the international spread of the coronavirus. SEMI Japan is working with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan to urge the government to exempt semiconductor supply chain companies from the level 3 travel restrictions if they implement measures to prevent domestic infections and contagion in the visited regions. The exemptions would allow supply chain companies to install and service equipment at fabs – one key to maintaining smooth, uninterrupted operations.SEMI Supports Members with COVID-19 ResourcesSEMI international headquarters and regional offices are here to help you, our members. For more information on our webinars, surveys, best practices and other information designed to help you meet the challenges of the pandemic, please visit the SEMI Coronavirus Updates Resources page.[1] The six prefectures are Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka.[2] Provisional translation by Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Full document is available at https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000620733.pdf.Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.

We are now in the recovery phase of the current business cycle with SEMI equipment already in a growth mode. However significant economic and geopolitical concerns persist.

Famous for its warmth and hospitality, Japan always welcomes visitors from around the world with a gracious embrace. But when is the best season to visit? It depends on the interest of each visitor of course. For Instagrammers, the April cherry blossoms or November autumn leaves – a masterpiece of art with their rainbow gold, red and yellow hues – are ideal for snapping memorable pictures. For foodies, winter delights with tuna, toro sushi and other seafood at their tastiest. Wagyu peaks in richness, too, when the cold weather sets in. For anime and manga enthusiasts, August is definitely the time to visit. That’s when COMIKET, the world’s largest comic market – drawing more than a half million people – takes place in Tokyo. But for people in the electronics value chain, the perfect time to pack their bags and hop a flight to Tokyo is December, when SEMICON Japan – December 11-13 at Tokyo Big Sight – opens its doors with its own form of hospitality.Why should you attend? Here are the five top reasons.Reason 1: Japan is home to leading electronics industry suppliersAccording to VLSI Technology, seven of the top 15 semiconductor equipment suppliers in 2018 are headquartered in Japan, and many Japanese companies also lead backend equipment segments. For decades, Japanese companies have supplied about one third of the equipment for the global semiconductor equipment industry, according to SEMI and the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ). Most of these companies typically set up a booth on the SEMICON Japan show floor to welcome your visit.True, many Japanese suppliers also exhibit at SEMICON shows outside of Japan to meet with customers. But you will find many more engineers, managers and executives of equipment suppliers on their home ground at SEMICON Japan, where suppliers typically debut new equipment. Their booths are also ideal locations for visitors to meet with suppliers to ask questions, exchange opinions and negotiate new business deals.Japanese materials suppliers enjoy an even larger market share, providing about half the materials for the global semiconductor industry. These suppliers dominate in silicon wafers, photomasks, photoresists, sputtering targets, packaging substrates, bonding wires, leadframes, mold compounds and wafer level packaging dielectrics. Unlike equipment suppliers, not all materials companies exhibit. Instead, many participate as speakers and attend to connect with customers.Reason 2: Get ready for the next semiconductor industry upturnA year ago, in late 2018, we expected chip inventory to stabilize by mid-2019, yet the industry still struggles with high inventory overall and low average selling price for memory. The SEMI 2019 equipment billing forecast was lowered accordingly from -4.0 percent growth (2018 year-end forecast) to -18.4 percent (2019 mid-year forecast). However, the two forecasts still predict positive growth in 2020. As SEMICON Japan 2019 is underway, we should be at the beginning of the next upturn.The chart below shows that more wafer process fabs will start construction in 2020 than this year. (Please see article: Nearly $50 Billion in Fabs to Start Construction in 2020.) Custer Consulting Group also pointed to “a resumption in semiconductor chip and capital equipment growth in late 2019 or early 2020.” (Please see article: Semiconductor Industry Upturn by Early 2020?.)With better times ahead, SEMICON Japan 2019 will be an opportune time to exchange opinions with key players across the supply chain and start negotiations for the coming robust recovery of the equipment, components and materials markets.Reason 3: Glimpse the future at SuperTHEATERSEMICON Japan SuperTHEATER will feature industry and technology insights from global visionaries. Asako Eda, Japan’s chief representative officer of the World Economic Forum and the former president of Intel Japan, will open the SuperTHEATER with her keynote on how we live in an era where the fourth industrial revolution, climate change, disparity and geopolitical risks are affecting our lives and with the speed we have never experienced. She will explore the growing role of innovation and social responsibility and how the World Economic Forum is addressing associated challenges. The opening keynote session will also feature Nandan Nayampally, vice president and general manager of the Immersive Experience group at Arm.In all, the SuperTHEATER will host seven keynote forums over three days at SEMICON Japan including: Semiconductor Executive Forum – Terushi Shimizu, representative director and president of Sony Semiconductor Solutions, and Atsuyoshi Koike, president of Western Digital Japan, will discuss their business strategies and prospects. Manufacturing Innovation Summit – Executives from Applied Materials, KLA, Nikon and Tokyo Electron will discuss business and technology issues as well as innovations that will drive growth to 2030. All seven SuperTHEATER programs will be simultaneously translated to English for international audiences.Reason 4: Connect to application communitiesCollaboration across the value chain has never been more important to industry innovation and growth – the very reason SEMI has expanded its reach beyond the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain (equipment and materials) to include design, systems and products.The SEMICON Japan show and conferences will connect you to key application segments of the value chain. The SuperTHEATER will host two SMART transportation forums highlighting the latest developments in autonomous driving and sky transportation (flying cars). In the SMART Applications Zone on the show floor, you’ll find electronics products and technologies showcased for automotive and manufacturing automation as the autonomous driving pavilion highlights emerging technologies that are driving semiconductor innovation opportunities. Reason 5: Learn from disaster and recovery experiencesJapan has taken important disaster recovery lessons from devastating earthquakes over the past three decades, most notably the Kumamoto quake in 2016, the Tohoku temblor in 2011 and the Kobe rattler in 1995. So has the Japan electronics supply chain, including SEMI members. In the Business Continuity Plan (BCP) area at SEMICON Japan 2019, exhibitors including DISCO, Murata Machinery and THK will highlight technologies that can strengthen your preparedness for a disaster and aid in the recovery.On December 12 at the BCP seminar at Japan 2019, Sony Semiconductor Manufacturing, DISCO and Team Engineering Consulting will share their experiences and expertise in mitigating the disaster impacts. (Sony and Disco will present in Japanese.)To get the feel for the magnitude of a major earthquake and how seismic isolation protects against structural damage, be sure to take advantage of THK’s earthquake experience car. Seismic isolation installs isolators – rubber bearings, friction bearings, ball bearings, spring systems or other devices – beneath a building to buffer earthquake vibrations transmitted to structures.More reasons to attend SEMICON JapanAnd of course your visit to Tokyo for SEMICON Japan 2019 wouldn’t be complete without exploring Tokyo and other regions to experience Japan’s exotic culture, cityscapes and cuisine! Here are some resources to give you even more reasons to book a flight to Tokyo: Japan National Tourism Organization Go Tokyo Kyoto Tourism I look forward to seeing you at SEMICON Japan in December!Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.

Reports of 2Q’19 financials from all of the major OEMs in our 213 company global sample show that their electronic equipment sales declined 1.4 percent compared to the same quarter of last year.

The electronics markets (and global economies in general) remain fragile, but there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon.

Shenyang is on an unwavering path to maturing its integrated circuit (IC) equipment manufacturing industry over the next few decades in response to the Made in China 2025 Strategy. Since the strategy’s introduction in 2015, the city, long a transportation and commercial hub of China's northeast, has built out a complete integrated circuit industrial chain integrating technical research and innovation, components and parts processing, and equipment manufacturing. Its ambition is to compete on the world stage.Shenyang has implemented policies and provided funding to support the development of its IC equipment and related industries to buttress the development of emerging industries. Speaking at the SEMI China Members Day 2019 in Shenyang, Zheng Guangwen, secretary-general of ICMTIA and Shenyang IC Equipment Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance, said that the city, as a key IC equipment industry base in the upstream of China’s industrial chain, hopes to enter the international community in part by leveraging SEMI’s global platform. Zheng Guangwen, Secretary General, ICMTIA and Shenyang IC Equipment Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance More than 150 representatives from member companies gathered at SEMI China Members Day 2019 to discuss China’s semiconductor industry investment and capital dynamics and semiconductor market trends. The event sought to promote stronger communication and interaction between the upstream and downstream of the semiconductor industry chain. The forum was co-sponsored by SEMI China and Shenyang Science and Technology Bureau and co-hosted by ICMTIA and Shenyang IC Equipment Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance. Lung Chu, President of SEMI China Opening the event, Lung Chu, president of SEMI China, set stage for the discussion by noting that global semiconductor industry has been booming since 1957, reaching another record high of $470 billion in sales last year as it faced a critical juncture, with industry growth slowing in the first half of 2019. The slowdown was predictable and is temporary, a natural stage in the industry’s cyclicality. From a macro point of view, the development of advanced technology requires huge investment. There was an obvious gap in investment between enterprises, which often leads to the stronger become much stronger. Under these circumstances, it is very important for China to master key technologies and products during the process of catching up and surpassing. Each region should focus on its strengths.Enterprises should do their own business in a low-key way and keep a prudent and optimistic attitude. The number of SEMI China members has reached a new high. SEMI China is committed to becoming the best partner to realize China's semiconductor dreams. In promoting the development of global semiconductor industry and China's semiconductor industry, SEMI has continuously gathered strength and actively organized rich activities to promote the sustainable growth of Chinese semiconductor enterprises through international cooperation. Zhao Rigang, Director of SCTB, Shenyang Science and Technology Bureau Zhao Rigang, director of SCTB at Shenyang Science and Technology Bureau, pointed to the importance of SEMI’s pivotal role and global influence in cultivating cooperation between international and domestic industries including Shenyang’s IC sector. Speaking at the SEMI China Members Day 2019 in early June, Rigang said the growing importance of chips in China is a key catalyst for Shenyang’s rise as semiconductor sectors domestically and abroad invest heavily in a new generation of information technologies such as mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things. Kang Jin, General Manager, SMIC Beijing For China’s semiconductor industry to flourish, the region must improve its IC supply capacity just as it has brought its PV industry to full maturation, said Kang Jin, general manager of SMIC Beijing. The key to developing China's integrated circuit industry, he said, lies in building a robust semiconductor supply chain. Zong Runfu, Chairman and General Manager, KINGSEMI Semiconductor Equipment Supply Chain DevelopmentLocalization has enabled KINGSEMI to optimize its technology design capabilities to produce high cost-performance equipment for greater competitive advantage, saidZong Runfu, chairman and general manager of KINGSEMI. While the localization rate of supply chain construction was over 50 percent, the localization rate for front-end equipment is still low. Zong Runfu said localization is imperative not only to lowering costs, but also to ameliorating the supply-guarantee rate, maintaining quality and shortening the delivery cycle. Russell Li, VP of Marketing and Business Development, WLCSP Packaging Solutions for 3D Active Sensing DevicesInternet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), 5G and other technologies are starting to become a part of daily life as more sensors find their way into new retail stores and smartphones, a trend that will continue as autonomous transportation begins to take hold, said Russell Liu, VP of marketing and business development at WLCSP. The move to bring more human-like capabilities to technology is driving the implementation of perception function in devices, with passive sensors giving way to active sensors and machines translating the physical world into a 3D view through the eyes of a 3D camera. What’s more, the next generation of IoT devices will feature more integrated processors including signal processors, caches, sensors, photons, RF and MEMS, bringing the challenges of miniaturization to system integration. Liu said miniaturization will only be possible by developing advanced packaging technologies that enable highly integrated processors for mobile devices and intelligent automobiles. Wang Ronghua, VP of Technology, Dalian Xinguan Technology Getting Ready for GaN Power Electronics EraGaN offers excellent performance in optoelectronics, RF and power electronics and will coexist with and complement silicon devices for years to come, said Wang Ronghua, VP of Technology at Dalian Xinguan Technology. However, the industrialization of GaN power devices still faces technical challenges in application, reliability, packaging, epitaxy, device and process – all barriers to market adoption. To overcome these hurdles, GaN power devices must meet the reliability and cost-performance requirements of applications to which they are best suited.Ronghau said that GaN power devices, such as cascade and p-GaN enhanced devices, now support end products, proof that the era of gallium nitride has arrived. “Gallium nitride is quite different from silicon in epitaxy, device design and key technology, which requires close integration of upstream and downstream industry chains for effective promotion,” he said. Billy Feng, Executive Director, J.P. Morgan Is the Semiconductor Industry Still Cyclical? Since 2008, the semiconductor cycle has waned, disrupting the traditional thinking of investors, equipment suppliers and logistics channel providers as investors’ appetite for the chip industry investments has grown, said Billy Feng, executive director at J.P. Morgan. The long-term prospects for the semiconductor industry remain bright. But after reaching historic revenue highs in 2017 and 2018, the industry – and investor expectations – will enter a period of adjustment. Dr. Adam He, Executive Director, CGP Tech Fund The unique gene of the semiconductor industry consists of the blend of its lofty requirements for quality, reliability and consistency; cooperation between upstream and downstream sectors; internationalization; and a powerful ambition to innovate, said Dr. Adam He, Executive Director of CGP Tech Fund. He described Chinese chip enterprises he often encounters as falling into one of two entrepreneurial categories – IC experts and cross-border business people. Both want the answer to "how to make money and how to establish a solid competitive position?” He said. Adam believes that accessing the genes of the semiconductor industry is the answer to both questions and crucial to the maturation of China’s chip industry. The genes must be used to strengthen the Chinese manufacturing and materials sectors. Du Shanshan, Senior Analyst, SEMI China SEMI Market Outlook: Fab Investment, Equipment and Materials Market ForecastsEmerging technologies have sparked explosive semiconductor industry growth, said Du Shanshan, a senior analyst at SEMI China. While the industry will see a slight recession in 2019 due to memory market softness, trade wars and other factors, it is on stable footing for the long run. At the same time, China continues to optimize its IC industry chain, and semiconductor design and manufacturing companies have gradually grown in number. Over the next decade, the average growth rate of China's production capacity is expected to exceed 10 percent. Richard Feldman, VP of Global Expositions and Events, SEMI Richard Feldman, vice president of Global Expositions and Events of SEMI headquarters, presented the new SEMI Asia semiconductor business development plan to members and called on companies in mainland China, Taiwan and Malaysia to participate in SEMICON Europe to strengthen the influence of globalization.After the meeting, participants visited KINGSEMI Co., Ltd., Shenyang Piotech Co., Ltd, Shenyang SIASUN Robot and Automation Co., Ltd., Shenyang Fortune Precision Equipment Co., Ltd. and SKY Technology Development Co., Ltd. The event facilitated communications between upstream and downstream companies. SEMI China Member Day 2019 Group Photo Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.

The semiconductor industry felt more of a fourth-quarter slowdown than the end markets.  Semiconductor-related products are typically much more volatile than the electronic equipment markets they serve.

This year, SEMI ISS covered it all – from a high-level semiconductor market and global geopolitical overview down to the neuro morphic and quantum level. Here are key takeaways from the Day 1 keynote and Economic Trends and Market Perspectives presentations.In the opening keynote, Anne Kelleher from Intel pointed to the huge growth of data, with fabs collecting more than 5 billion sensor data points each day. The challenge, Kelleher noted, is to turn massive amounts of data into valuable information. Moore’s law is not dead. New models of computing benefit still from Moore’s law and advances in Si/CMOS technologies for conventional, deep learning, neuro morphic and quantum computing.With customers expecting continual improvements in applications, the question is whether the chip industry is moving fast enough to meet these expectations, Kelleher said. A broad supply chain, equipment and materials innovations, and attracting the “best of the best” college graduates to fuel innovation is key, she said.In the economic trends session, Nicholas Burns (ambassador ret.) from Harvard University pointed out that we will see a major shift in power. The U.S. will remain the major world power over the next 10 years, but we will see a major shift in power in the next coming decades as the gap with countries like China, Russia and India continues to narrow.Duncan Meldrum from Hilltop Economics said that we are passing the peak growth of economic cycle. He warns that a more likely outlook is that a global growth recession is developing. Although semiconductor MSI growth will see a noticeable slowdown in 2019 and 2020, the semiconductor industry is still healthy over the longer term.Bob Johnson from Gartner sees demand shifting from consumer to commercial applications with higher ROIs and budgets. AI, IoT and 5D are the major enablers. He sees structural changes in the semiconductor industry especially for memory but also for Moore’s law with increasing costs and fewer players.The DRAM markets shows volatility and NAND market may be negative in 2019 but non-memory are expected to accelerate mainly because of increasing content and some price hikes.Overall Gartner expects good long-term growth with a CAGR (2017 to 2022) of 5.1%, outpacing 2011 to 2016 CAGR of 2.6%. After a strong 2018 with 13.4% revenue, he forecasts a slower 2019 with 2.6% growth followed by a 8% growth in 2020 and negative growth rate in 2021.Andrea Lati of VLSI went “Back to fundamentals” in his presentation about the industry. VLSI sees a downside bias due to slowing global economy, tariffs, and trade wars. Future drivers are data economy, cloud, AI and automotive.As memory leads the 2019 slowdown, analog, power, logic and other sectors remain in positive territory. VLSI lowered its semiconductor equipment forecast for 2018 from 20% (Jan. 2018) to 14% (Dec. 2018) but increased its sales outlook from 8% to 15% in 2018. VLSI expects revenue to slow into the first half of 2019 but increase to over 4% in the second half of the year, resulting in total 2019 drop of 2.7%. Semiconductor equipment sales are expected to drop from 14% in 2018 to -10% in 2019.Michael Corbett of Linz Consulting, covering wafer fab materials in the years of 3D scaling, sees these as good times for the industry. His outlook for wafer fab materials is bullish based on strong MSI and because wafer fab materials suppliers are getting bigger because of M As.In the Market Perspective session, Sujeet Chand of Rockwell Automation pointed out that as more and more data is generated, the problem is how to get value of all the data collected. There is a need to create the right architecture for machine learning and AI and big data is increasingly being replaced by contextual/structured data. He expects Industry 4.0 to drive foundries to become smaller, more flexible and more productive.In the Technology and Manufacturing session, Aki Sekiguchi of TEL addressed process challenges in the age of co-optimization. The semiconductor industry continues to expand, driven by massive growth of interconnected devices, with heavy demand for processing power and storage. He expects an exponential increase of data from about 40ZB in 2018 to 50ZB in 2020 to 163 ZB in 2026.Major technologies such as DRAM, 3D NAND and logic are dealing with scaling challenges. The density of DRAM (Mb/chip) is plateauing according to 2015 to 2020 trend data, with DRAM is in need of EUV. Memory capacity demand is leading to increasing layers and higher aspect ratios that is concern for 3D NAND and mainly for plasma etch. With Logic already implementing 3D structures, it appears to be in a solid position. Buddy Nicoson of Micron talked about his 50 years in the industry and looked ahead to the next 50. The anchors – quality, cost, scale and speed – won’t change. It has been a great journey so far with unprecedented opportunities and challenges ahead of us. We are getting into a convergence (specialization, integration) and solution-based phase. We will see some inflection points in the coming years, with the best yet to come.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.