semiconductor supply chain

Demand for hi-tech manufactured goods is at an all-time high and is expected to grow significantly in our new digital age, COVID-19 economy. This is especially true for semiconductor chips. Chip manufacturers have been working to meet this demand by building new factories and by optimizing processes and equipment in existing fabs. While there is much media coverage about new factories planned by leading-edge chipmakers and government investments in the semiconductor sector, greenfield fabs entail significant capital expenditures and are sometimes fraught with complex political concerns. As a result, they can take several years to complete and reach their planned production capacity. Instead, the semiconductor industry needs to optimize existing factories in order to increase productivity and yield and meet growing demand by implementing smart manufacturing solutions. Smart manufacturing solutions will inherently reduce costs with more efficient and automated processes, and those savings can be reinvested for the next wave of solutions. Chip Industry on the Bleeding Edge Semiconductor manufacturers have always been focused on bleeding-edge technology to outflank strong competition and build the best products – faster and cheaper. Today, pioneering organizations are using data to optimize manufacturing processes and equipment, a practice known as Smart Manufacturing. While there are many definitions of Smart Manufacturing, the essence is maximizing the utility of big data generated in these factories by leveraging three pillars: Sensing, Connecting, and Predicting. It is not just the digitization in manufacturing, but it is also about turning the data into actions that generate value – an effort the SEMI Smart Manufacturing Committee is driving based on the three pillars. Optimizing return on investment is the ultimate goal. SEMI Smart Manufacturing Initiative activity is based on three pillars that support the goal of increasing ROI. Making the Right Decision, Faster Smart manufacturing practices enable organizations to make the right decisions and take action faster based on insights generated from real-time and historical data. This requires data management technologies and applications that can process, analyze, and act on information instantly. It has become ever more difficult to process and discern the relevant data or signal from the vast volume of data, perform analytics or develop new ML or AI analytic tools, and then make the critical decisions to solve problems as close to real-time as possible. Who’s Responsible – IT or OT? In the past IT (Information Technology) and OT (Operations Technology) were separate entities within organizations, with IT focused on storing large amounts of data for enterprise systems and OT concentrated on using data to perform specific functions. Smart Manufacturing often demands combining IT and OT, difficult in rigid organizations that operate the two organizations independently and lack the infrastructure to implement comprehensive solutions. Success requires executive leadership sponsorship, motivated technical personnel and, most importantly, a clear deliverable on the value in implementing Smart Manufacturing. Many organizations have introduced top-level leadership positions such as a Chief Information Officer or Chief Data and Analytics Officer to address this convergence and many of these leaders are embracing Smart Manufacturing practices. The SEMI Smart Manufacturing community includes many of these leaders and therefore has highlighted the importance in the return on investment for Smart Manufacturing solutions. Read more about IT and OT convergence and note that Smart Manufacturing is synonymous with Industry 4.0. The SEMI Smart Manufacturing Initiative covers the entire supply chain. Get Smart in Smart Manufacturing While new technologies and applications are being created to deal with mountains of data, it is the underlying methodologies and practices that are key to a successful Smart Manufacturing deployment. SEMI, the trade association representing the electronics manufacturing and design supply chain, is in a perfect position to evangelize Smart Manufacturing experiences and best practices for the entire manufacturing community. The more than 30 member companies participating in the SEMI Smart Manufacturing Initiative bring more than 500 years of collective experience and knowledge to the topic. Many segments of the supply chain participate in the SEMI Smart Manufacturing Initiative including packaging, assembly, SMT and PCB assembly, test, software, data management, sensor and material suppliers. Learn How to Manufacture Smarter SEMI SMART Manufacturing is hosting two great conferences in the coming months – the Global Smart Manufacturing Conference (GSMC) and the SEMICON West Smart Manufacturing Pavilion. As a leader of the organizing committee and chair for the SEMICON West Smart Manufacturing Pavilion, I encourage people who want to learn how to implement Smart Manufacturing or expand their knowledge of Smart Manufacturing to attend these events. The GSMC will feature keynotes highlighting the value of Smart Manufacturing, offer tutorials on the three pillars, and introduce several case studies for each of the pillars. Thirty-two organizations – ranging from global cloud providers, semiconductor factory operators, leading equipment vendors and software application solution companies – will present. See the full agenda here. The SEMICON West Smart Manufacturing Pavilion will compliment GSMC by showcasing a number of use cases that highlight the value of Smart Manufacturing. Panel discussions will deep dive into the challenges of implementing these best practices and the direction smart manufacturing is taking in the coming years. Our goal for these events is for you to take this knowledge back to your companies, implement and improve on the detailed solutions highlighted at the conferences, and return next year to share your success stories with the community. See you soon, in person or virtually! About the Author Bill Pierson is VP of Semiconductors and Manufacturing at KX, leading the growth of streaming data analytics in this vertical. Bill is also a chair for the SEMICON West Smart Manufacturing Conference and an active team member of the SEMI Americas Chapter. He has extensive experience in the semiconductor industry including previous experiences at Samsung, ASML and KLA. Bill specializes in applications, analytics, and control. He lives in Austin, Texas, and when not at work can be found on the rock-climbing cliffs or at his son’s soccer matches.

In my role as lead for the Smart Mobility initiative at SEMI, I recently spoke with Automotive Logistics Magazine about the growing importance of the semiconductor supply chain’s connection with the automotive industry and the semiconductor shortage hampering global automotive production. Following are excerpts from the interview. Automotive Logistics: Why is there a bottleneck in the global supply of semiconductors at the moment and how long is it likely to last? Weiss: The current automotive chip shortage resulted from the sharp, Covid-19-induced decrease in demand for automotive semiconductors in the second quarter of last year when vehicle production came to a near standstill. The automotive market picked up significantly in the fourth quarter and this caused the supply chain constraints we are seeing today. At the same time as the automotive standstill, the pandemic spurred an increase in demand for home computing and networking equipment, and semiconductor manufacturing plants (fabs) had to pivot to these other markets in order to maximize fab utilization and successfully navigate economic headwinds. Every minute a semiconductor fab is idle or has lines down adds up quickly to missed revenue, so their capacity is booked weeks and even months in advance. With this background, I don’t believe this is a structural shortage and expect a gradual recovery over the next two quarters, barring any major shifts in geopolitics or macroeconomics. Automotive Logistics: What needs to be done to remedy the current shortfall for the automotive industry? Weiss: The automotive industry needs to continue to strengthen its connections to the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain. In past years, auto manufacturers used to rely mainly on their tier one suppliers to interface with the semiconductor supply chain. This has changed significantly. Not only are more chips being used in vehicles (roughly 10% of all devices produced globally end up in cars), but the strategic importance of the chips as enablers for ADAS [advanced driver-assistance systems], electrification, safety, connectivity and other consumer-driven features has increased considerably. With this dynamic in play, carmakers have recognized the value of interacting and collaborating more closely with the semiconductor supply chain. This provides vehicle OEMs with access to innovation, the ability to influence technology direction and pace, along with greater visibility into global supply chain developments. The SEMI Smart Mobility initiative is evidence of this transition, with the likes of Audi, BMW, Ford, Uber, Volkswagen and other vehicle OEMs, along with tier one suppliers such as Continental and Bosch, now actively involved in our automotive electronics and mobility activities to do exactly that – influence, partner, accelerate and guide the global electronics design and manufacturing supply chain that SEMI represents. Automotive Logistics: What percentage of semiconductors manufactured for use by US-based companies are for automotive applications and how has this grown in recent years? Weiss: A little over 10% of semiconductors produced worldwide are sold into the automotive segment, but this number is expected to grow at an accelerated pace in the next few years as electrification, connectivity and autonomous driving become more prevalent. Automotive Logistics: How is SEMI working to help the automotive industry get a clearer view of sub-component supply and better manage supply chain risk? Weiss: The SEMI Smart Mobility initiative is designed to engage automotive OEMs, tier ones, semiconductor device makers, design houses, and equipment and materials companies to drive alignment across the supply chain and address shared challenges collectively. To facilitate this engagement, we created the Global Automotive Advisory Council (GAAC), which has active chapters in Europe, US, China, Japan and Taiwan. The GAAC provides an open platform for creating solutions, fostering collaboration and partnering with other industry bodies to accelerate and harmonize industry efforts that benefit the entire ecosystem. Volkswagen and Audi are already SEMI members – both are founding members of the GAAC Europe chapter – and have become vocal champions and critical contributors to our efforts. When all stakeholders work together, I have no doubt that the future of automotive and mobility will continue to be bright. Interested in learning more about this topic? Read the full interview in Automotive Logistics Magazine, A Fab Future for the Automotive Sector. Please contact me at [email protected] for more information about SEMI’s Smart Mobility Initiative, the Global Automotive Advisory Council, and how SEMI can help your organization navigate electronics in the automotive industry to drive innovation in the mobility space. Bettina Weiss is Chief of Staff and Global Smart Mobility Lead at SEMI.

Japan’s semiconductor industry has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic to post robust growth. Far from a temporary setback, COVID-19 will lead to enduring change in how we work and live. And just as automation has been a bulwark against the devastating business impacts of the virus outbreak, increasing digitization will lead to new efficiencies in our industry.These were some of the key takeaways from three SEMI Japan Members Day webinars in June and July that offered the latest updates on COVID-19 impacts to the semiconductor industry and restart strategies for SEMI members. More than 2,000 SEMI members across Japan’s islands attended the webinars featuring the following five speakers: Hideki Kanewaka, Marketing Director, Consulting Lead, Japan, Accenture Japan Ltd. Takayuki Komori, Manager, Marketing Engineering Dept, SUMCO Corporation Taketoshi Hamaguchi, Director, Manufacturing Industry, Microsoft Corporation Akira Minamikawa, Senior Consulting Director, OMDIA (Informa Intelligence LCC) Yuichi Koshiba, Managing Director Partner, Boston Consulting Group COVID-19 Impact on Japan Semiconductor Industry is ModestThe consensus view of the five speakers from various quarters of the industry – consultant, IT service provider, materials supplier, market analyst – was that the Japan semiconductor industry withstood the heavy blows COVID-19 dealt to other industries thanks to strong demand for chips. Shelter-in-place policies and lockdowns spawned by COVID-19 has accelerated the digital transformation rippling around the world as electronics sales have soared to support everything from remote work and education to healthcare and home entertainment including gaming.The rapid growth of cloud usage for video streaming, gaming and remote work is taxing communications network capacity and placing more bandwidth demands on servers, said Akira Minamikawa of OMDIA. According to a recent report by Nokia, communications network traffic has skyrocketed 300 percent for online meetings and 400 percent for gaming, bringing the networks closer to their capacity limits. Minamikawa sees server shipments increasing at 8 percent CAGR through 2024. For the broader chip market, he expects demand for notebooks, solid state and hard disk drives, and gaming to remain strong in 2020. He also predicts rapid 5G penetration for smartphones will boost semiconductor chip industry growth.Still, not all semiconductor segments are expanding, said Yuichi Koshiba of Boston Consulting Group. Chip shipments for end products in markets such as automotive, industrial equipment and aircrafts are on the decline. Slowing demand for chips that power automotive applications in particular could pare sales for some chip companies and distributors since the segment accounts for a high proportion of their overall revenue.State of the Semiconductor IndustryFrom SUMCO’s vantagepoint as a major silicon wafer supplier, the company’s Takayuki Komori sees a number of changes unfolding in the semiconductor industry: Smartphones are driving growing demand for process technology (smaller nodes) and 300mm wafers. Komori estimates the typical high-end smartphone sports 1,700 square millimeters of silicon. 300mm wafers account for 80 percent of that total while more than 50 percent of the devices use leading edge multi-patterning technologies. Smartphones will need more RF chips to support 5G’s high-speed communications and added frequency ranges. Substrates for RF switches and tuners have been shifting from gallium arsenide (GaAs) and other compound semiconductors to silicon. 5G smartphone penetration will accelerate as the cost of integrating CPUs and modem functions into a single chip sees a swift decline. While the sensitivity and resolution of CMOS image sensors have evolved to incorporate innovative backside illumination and stacking technologies, future advances will focus more on products for machine vision applications capable of sensing invisible light bands. Rising adoption of electric vehicles and robotics applications will drive growing demand for power semiconductors that control their motors such as IGBTs and MOSFETs as the production capacity for the devices expands and shifts to 300mm wafer lines. For memory fabs, Minamikawa said utilization remains high as a result of a spending slowdown by major chip manufacturers and will stay elevated even once additional capacity ramps to support robust demand. Foundry fab utilization also remains high despite the pandemic-driven cancellation of smartphone chip orders in March. Minamikawa also sees the utilization rate of micro rising with the surge in demand for notebooks, PCs and servers in the second half of 2020.Transition to New NormalAs people around the world start to settle into new ways of living and working, there’s a growing acceptance that the transformation will be long-lasting. And no area of people’s lives is changing more than their work. Boosted by government subsidies, many small and midsize companies in Japan have started to implement work-from-home policies, an area where major electronics and IT businesses had already instituted reforms, said Hideki Kanewaka of Accenture. A few examples: Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT) announced that half of its employees will continue to work from home in the future. A five-year plan Toshiba launched in 2019 to allow all employees to work from home will likely accelerate. Hitachi plans to allow all employees to work from home starting in April 2021. dwango, a major internet-based entertainment company in Japan, announced it will allow in principle any employees to work remotely. In the critical area of remote sales, Kanewaka pointed to the importance of going beyond online business meetings, paperless transactions and virtual events to devise new ways to attract customers and close deals. Creating online communities and providing rich digital content are also important measures to consider, he said.Manufacturing's Digital TransformationTravel restrictions by most countries to curb the COVID-19 outbreak have also raised barriers to chip companies sending engineers overseas sites to service state-of-art equipment and provide other technical support. Microsoft’s remote assist system deployed by ASML is one tool semiconductor makers can use to overcome this challenge, said Taketoshi Hamaguchi of Microsoft.The system connects a remote equipment service expert with an onsite worker through the internet, allowing the technical expert to provide support through a goggle display with a camera worn by the worker. Guided by the expert, the worker can perform complex services. A Natural User Interface (NUI) helps give the factory worker a clear understanding of the often highly technical instructions.Using artificial intelligence (AI) to increase automation will also help reduce the reliance of semiconductor factories on onsite workers. For example, AI deep learning can be deployed to calibrate equipment autonomously and reduce downtime after scheduled maintenances, Hamaguchi said.Corporate Restart Strategies Beyond factory considerations tied to COVID-19, semiconductor companies will need to adapt their business strategies to new ways of operating. For example, global supply chains will shift to domestic sources and increase redundancy to ensure a steady supply, a change leading to higher overall costs, Koshiba said. Trade routes among regions will also be redrawn as the trade rift between the United States and China and other geopolitical tensions intensify. The total value of those routes is expected to recover by 2023.Koshiba advised companies to evaluate the supply chain trade-offs between stability and cost and factor in potential risks to improve their short-term resilience and drive mid- to long-term supply chain restructuring.After past recessions, 14 percent of companies restored sales growth, Koshiba said. He recommended investing aggressively in growth and seizing M A opportunities during the downturn. Chip companies must also adapt to supply chain changes faster than competitors.Become a SEMI MemberWebinars like the recent SEMI Japan Members Day series have become increasingly important in the mix of programs and services SEMI offers members to help them connect, collaborate and innovate in the microelectronics community. To become a SEMI member, please visit the SEMI website or contact your nearest SEMI office.Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.

Olivier Corvez, senior manager of Environment, Health, Safety and Sustainability at SEMI, sat down (virtually) with Todd Patterson, vice president of global EHS for Entegris Global Operations, to discuss how Entegris has responded to the global pandemic.Corvez manages and Patterson participates in the COVID-19 EHS Task Force currently meeting weekly to discuss industry response and share best practices. SEMI: Was Entegris prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic? How did the company respond?Patterson: Entegris has a strong risk management framework and a risk assessment team of senior leaders who meet at least once a quarter. This focus gives us early visibility into events that could destabilize our organization or threaten our operations. Such a framework helps ensure we have the information necessary to act as soon as possible when the need arises. However, our business continuity plans for a pandemic of this scale were far less than with other more commonly occurring catastrophic events such as earthquakes or hurricanes. The COVID-19 crisis was clearly unprecedented and as such, the necessary systems and procedures were not in place with the depth and detail needed. Our strong governance structure made it possible for us to hold steady even as the pandemic caused increasing uncertainty and disruption around the world. For example, despite major supply chain shutdowns across many industries, to date, our supply chain and manufacturing operations have only been modestly impacted by COVID-19. Our supply chain team was assessing daily the areas of risk with our suppliers and taking appropriate action as well as preemptive steps to ensure our critical supply lines remained open.Our sales team engaged in regular communications with our customers providing them updates about our Business Continuity Plans and our actions to mitigate the risk to any of their deliveries. In addition, we maintained current information about the continuity of our supply chain on the company’s intranet for the global sales team to access as they engaged with customers. Also, a proactive communication plan was implemented immediately to send weekly video messages from senior executives directly to employees’ emails. It was an effective way to communicate with our global teams, to keep them informed about the status of the company’s operations and maintain a common sense of purpose at a time when many colleagues worked from home. In these weekly messages, we also focused significant attention on the health and safety protocols established to protect our manufacturing and lab employees from the virus.Among the health and safety protocols we implemented immediately as the virus moved across different regions were those related to facility screenings, work-from-home policies, social distancing, self-quarantine requirements, contact tracing, increased disinfecting, and travel restrictions. With approximately 5,300 employees worldwide, we had teams in every region ready to implement these comprehensive protocols. We believe we were among the first companies to implement work-from-home policies and travel restrictions.Temperature screening stations at Entegris facilities in Jangan, Korea (left) and Kulim, Malaysia (right). In addition, our CEO led a COVID-19 Steering Committee comprised of senior executives and managers from operations, human resources and communications. The committee met several times a week during March and April to evaluate and formulate responses to the issues that emerged as the virus spread from region to region. The committee’s work created a strong partnership among senior executives and divisional and functional leaders, and the initial guidelines developed by the committee have formed the backbone of a global playbook to limit the spread of the virus to our other sites around the world.Recently, the committee has changed its focus to more strategic issues such as creating a framework for transitioning remote workers back into our office locations. Meanwhile, local leadership teams at each of our global sites have been empowered to address ongoing tactical issues consistent with our thoroughly documented health and safety protocols.Looking to the future, we are using our experience in responding to COVID-19 to develop a more comprehensive pandemic response plan. We have project teams working on better ways to: measure temperatures of personnel entering our sites facilitate social distancing in the workplace redesign common use areas to reduce the number of high touch points disinfect all spaces thoroughly and regularly, and manage emergency pandemic supplies. SEMI: From the SEMI EHS survey, we noted that all members had a Business Continuity Plan. How effective has it been for deploying resources and adapting quickly and minimizing the crisis? Why or why not? Patterson: Because we have operations in China, Entegris experienced the impact of the virus immediately. We quickly formed two task force teams for our two primary facilities in the region. These teams developed the means for communicating key information to employees and started working on prevention plans to protect employees and comply with local requirements for when operations resumed. They met the challenges head on and found quick solutions. An example was finding an effective way of communicating to the employees for each location. Group chats were established through social media. It was this work that led to their success in getting approvals from local authorities to resume operations. Those plans have laid the groundwork on which our other sites around the world could build their response plans.The effective management of our global supply chain also stands out as a key success of the company’s Business Continuity Plan. Entegris has a highly complex supply chain with approximately 6,500 suppliers and a $850 million annual spend, and we ship work-in-progress and finished goods from over 90 sites globally.As I mentioned earlier, despite the virus crippling supply chains across many industries, Entegris experienced very little disruption to its supply chain. The supply chain team was able to accomplish this despite a 90% reduction in global freight capacity. A key factor in keeping goods flowing to our factories was the intensive work the team had done earlier to develop an in-depth understanding of the company’s top suppliers and to mitigate sourcing risks. They had established alternate sources, balanced the sources geographically, and placed inventory across our supply chain to buffer risk.The team also had integrated statistical modeling into reporting tools, which made it possible to reset safety stocks and logistics lead times quickly as conditions changed. And a supply chain digitalization provided one aligned and integrated view via dashboards, giving the company the ability to respond rapidly and to communicate in real time with our suppliers. We essentially had a virtual war room where we monitored the daily impact of the spread of the virus and could address bottlenecks and other issues immediately.SEMI: What lessons have been learned, so far? How do you see changes in your company’s operations in the future?Patterson: Institutionalizing what we’ve learned has already begun. Whether the measures implemented during the pandemic are temporary or become permanent is still to be determined. Regardless, the learnings need to be documented and available as a playbook for if – or when – the next pandemic occurs.Entegris is already working on a more comprehensive pandemic plan that will be based on five levels of preparedness. Level 0 will cover annual training requirements and management of emergency inventory of pandemic supplies. Level 1 will include early recognition of an outbreak, and then Levels 2-4 will include requirements for when specific response measures are implemented. Entegris also has formed the “New Normal” task force, which consists of leaders representing a number of disciplines directing the project teams previously mentioned to create a more comprehensive pandemic response plan. One of the project teams is working on improving the facility screening process that performs temperature measurement for personnel entering Entegris sites. The team is looking at the best technology to scan body temperature. As to whether this technology is employed only while COVID-19 is still active or becomes a permanent way of doing business, this is still being discussed.SEMI: EHS is involved in both providing technical support to protect individuals but also in making organizational changes to favorize social distancing. Could you explain some of the successes and challenges while tackling these two fronts?Patterson: Very early in the pandemic, Entegris established a work-from-home policy for non-essential employees. This significantly reduced the number of personnel and the potential for contact at the Entegris locations. Significant facility changes also were required. These included the design of facility screening booths and modifications to common gathering areas such as canteens, meeting rooms, prayer rooms, and smoking points. Physical markings were used to designate 2 meters distancing, and the seating in canteens and meeting rooms was reduced and staggered to minimize the risk of exposure to the virus. Entegris also has a project team focused on developing design solutions for offices and workstations when space makes it difficult to maintain 2 meters social distancing. These changes turned out to be essential for some sites in meeting mandates by local authorities. Our sites in Hangzhou, China and Kulim, Malaysia both were allowed to resume partial operations after demonstrating to government authorities the effectiveness of the preventative measures put in place. One particular challenge we are facing is the range of personal differences and awareness levels within the workforce – including those that don’t understand the importance of the new guidelines. We are working closely in advising supervisory staff to be aware of the need for employees to follow all health and safety protocols we have put in place, including social distancing. That preventative measure is the most difficult to make part of our new behavior – it is unnatural and inconsistent with our human nature, but it is critical to preventing the further spread of the virus.SEMI: How do you envision the progressive steps in deescalating to bring back “normal” operations? Patterson: I don’t know whether Entegris will ever go back to the old “normal.” As previously mentioned, we are working on the “New Normal.” Our focus now is on bringing our work-from-home employees back to the workplace without adding risk of exposure to the virus. We are still exploring options, but we expect to do it in a phased approach so that we can adequately assess the preventive measures that are in place and determine whether adjustments need to be made to any of our health and safety protocols.We are starting to see a variety of different frameworks emerge for evaluating repopulation timing and procedures. We will assess them on an office-by-office, or site-by-site basis, utilizing consistent criteria to define the potential for exposure to the virus. This also applies to our field service workforce. However, I have not yet seen any governmental guidance that offers a recommended framework for returning employees to the workplace. I think this represents an opportunity for SEMI EHS and the Standards groups to work to establish that framework for our industry.SEMI: Anything else you would like to share that you have observed throughout this crisis?We have not discussed the challenges faced in procuring and acquiring pandemic supplies. Almost immediately after the outbreak occurred in Wuhan, it became increasingly difficult to find supplies. Even when confirmation was provided by suppliers and delivery dates confirmed, the majority of the dates were pushed out or canceled. We found that what worked best was to have purchasing teams at the local site work with their local contacts on obtaining smaller quantities while a corporate point person was also managing larger orders. In preparation for any future pandemics, Entegris will be maintaining an emergency inventory for masks, sanitizer, thermometers, and disinfectants.For 18 months, Todd Patterson has held the position of VP Global EHS for Entegris Global Operations. His experience with emergency management and BCP has become invaluable in the past three months. He is grateful to his global response teams around the world for coming together to support the Entegris team in this unprecedented situation. Todd is an active participant on the SEMI EHS COVID-19 response teams led by Olivier Corvez at SEMI. Olivier Corvez is senior manager of Environment, Health, Safety and Sustainability at SEMI.

Linx Consulting and Hilltop Economics continue to monitor how the global economy impacts the electronic materials supply chain. Amidst the recent economic and revenue results releases, we have generated a series of potential scenarios for the next few years. These scenarios are based around sales of silicon wafers expressed in millions of square inches (MSI). Our work develops a multiyear forecast from the historic record of the SEMI-reported MSI demand by developing an econometric relationship with underlying demand drivers. Using this methodology, Linx Consulting and Hilltop Economics have introduced the following three silicon demand forecast scenarios: V-shaped global recession consistent with severe COVID-19 impact followed by a sharp economic rebound. Probability of approximately 40%. V-shaped global recession but with business and consumer behavior differing from the past recession in that there is much more aggressive spending on technology goods that softens the impact for semiconductors in 2020. Probability of approximately 25%. An extended COVID-19 impact developing into a U- or L-shaped global recession with an economic rebound delayed for several years. Probability of approximately 35%. In the few months since coronavirus hit the world, the economic prognosis for all major economies has worsened dramatically, although forecasts remain speculative given the rapid rate of change in the political and economic environment. The forecast changes in GDP since February 2020 of the G7 nations vary from -5.9% for Japan to -10.2% for Italy. These changes are closely linked to unprecedented declines in employment, consumer demand and industrial investment – all key drivers for wafer area demand. This leads us to believe there will be a significant reduction in wafer demand as these economic factors feed through the supply chain.Other leading indicators show dramatic drops in the global and regional economies taking effect at an unprecedented pace. These indicators have a loose predictive relationship for silicon wafer consumption and portend a rapid drop in demand.The demand picture for the semiconductor supply chain (be it wafers, materials, consumables or devices) is thus gloomy, and our models are currently showing Q2 to Q3 2020 reductions in MSI demand of between -11% and -28% depending on the scenario.In marked contrast to this depressing economic picture, the indications from the end-to-end semiconductor supply chain continue to be much more positive. Demand for silicon reported by SEMI increased in Q1 2020 by close to 3% from Q4 2019, while results from materials supply companies vary from slightly negative to record-breaking growth rates through the first three to four months of 2020. Added to this, reported revenues from WSTS for Q1 2020 ticked up 6.2% versus the prior year and the three large foundries in Taiwan and China showed continued growth of Q1 wafer area shipments and a 32.3% growth versus Q1 2019.Revenue and demand reports from leading device manufacturers remain on trend from 2019 with no indication of a precipitous change. Anecdotal reports of strong technology equipment demand to support people working from home and demand for medical devices in response to the pandemic can be substantiated somewhat by demand data although not convincingly.Reports from materials supply companies indicate that factories continue to be fully utilized, having been designated essential businesses, and that safety measures implemented against infection are largely effective.There are some indications of caution, however. The major public silicon wafer suppliers saw a 4% drop in revenues in Q1 over Q4, despite the reported strength in silicon area shipments from SEMI, indicating either ASP declines or some inventory effects.We are advising clients supplying materials into the wafer fabs and packaging supply chains to develop contingency plans for a sharp decline in product demand of as much as 28%, which may bounce back rapidly to 2019 levels or higher in early 2021. However, companies should also be vigilant of a slower than hoped for return to previous activity levels if the effects of the pandemic continue for an extended period.For further information please contact Mark Thirsk at +1 774-245-0959 or on [email protected] in engaging with the electronic materials supply chain? The Electronic Materials Group (EMG) is a SEMI technology community representing SEMI member companies that provide substrates, polymers, metals, organic and inorganic materials, chemicals, and gases developed for electronics manufacturing. Linx Consulting is a longtime member and supporter of the SEMI Electronic Materials Group.Mark Thirsk is managing partner at Linx Consulting. Duncan Meldrum is president of Hilltop Economics.

In the two months since the COVID-19 outbreak in January, the Chinese economy has shifted from shock to ongoing recovery under the guidance of the Chinese government. China has worked tirelessly to restore production at its chip manufacturing facilities, a core strategic industry in the region, and the effort is paying off. Operations at several fabs and OSATs – the domestic semiconductor industry’s chief growth engines – have begun to stabilize.As of mid-March, SMIC had restored its manufacturing lines to over 90% of production capacity and expects to be operating at full bore in the next few weeks, while the company’s R D line has returned to full operation. Huahong Grace reestablished normal supplies of various equipment parts and production raw materials. At Huahong Fab2, 12 new pieces of equipment went online to help increase production capacity, and production at Huahong Fab1 and Huahong Fab3 is now stable. JCET said the company's overall return rate has exceeded 90%. Meanwhile, IDM maker Silan Microelectronics' 6-inch and 8-inch lines maintained 90% production.Production lines at Huahong Group, SMIC, CanSemi, GTA Semiconductor, Samsung (Xi'an) and other mainland China chip manufacturers have been generally operating at normal capacity since the Spring Festival. Lines at YMTC, Tianma, CSOT, and BOE, all in the Coronavirus epicenter of Wuhan, have also returned to normal operations. China’s chip industry is finding its footing, and an impressive host of semiconductor companies are gearing up to participate at SEMICON China 2020, rescheduled to June 27-29. The list includes the major domestic wafer foundries such as Huahong, the major packaging and testing companies such as JCET, TFME, Huatian, and large domestic and foreign equipment companies, among them TEL, ASMPT, DISCO, ULVAC, VAT, ASML, KLA, NAURA, AMEC, Anji, CETC, Sinyang, SMEE, CAS, CANON and SPIROX.DigiTimes, a daily newspaper covering the semiconductor, electronics, computer and communications industries in Asia, interviewed SEMI China President Lung Chu in mid-March about what’s ahead for China’s semiconductor industry. Following is an English translation of the interview. DigiTimes InterviewAs China continues to ramp back up to normal activity, SEMI China is making every effort to hold SEMICON China 2020, a leading international semiconductor industry platform for promoting growth and innovation in China's semiconductor industry supply chain. SEMI China president Chu emphasized that the strong support of SEMICON China 2020 exhibitors and the Chinese government made rescheduling the event to June possible.Chu, a semiconductor industry veteran who has experienced numerous economic and industry upheavals over his career including the SARS shock in 2003, said current global economic uncertainty stems from two black swans – the global COVID-19 pandemic and how long it will take to contain it, and the sharp drop in oil prices triggered by the recent geopolitical dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia. In China, the government responded with strict containment actions and promoted public awareness of self-isolation, resulting in effective domestic containment as of mid-March. As a major oil consumer, China sees the lower prices as relatively favorable to its economy. Those dynamics should allow China to recover sooner than many other regions, and it could emerge even stronger once the pandemic is contained, despite the current slump in global semiconductor demand, Chu said. Once the epidemic has passed, China is in a position of "turning crisis into opportunity," and the semiconductor industry will recover from the trough, he said. Companies in semiconductor supply-chain sectors face various challenges in restoring normal operations. IC design companies experienced relatively low impact since employees can work from home and most companies are located in major cities in China, where epidemic prevention control is strict. For most chip manufacturers, production has not stopped but is hampered by manpower shortages from restrictions on employees returning to work. IC packaging and testing companies are suffering bigger impacts because of the more labor-intensive nature of their operations. However, all companies in the supply chain will be affected by the decline in demand for electronic products and ICs in 2020. As the COVID-19 threat recedes in China, the region remains unwavering in its commitment to semiconductors as a strategic industry with its continuing efforts to evolve sustainable and reliable localized supply chains, Chu said. Investments in “new Infrastructure” for 5G, the Internet of Things (IoT), data centers, as well as public health services should help drive semiconductor demand for smart applications and devices associated with the new infrastructures as are all powered by ICs, benefiting companies in the global supply chain. The COVID-19 outbreak triggered a slowdown in new factory construction after the Chinese government implemented restrictions on the flow of people resulting in a worker shortage. SEMI has revised downward its forecast of wafer equipment spending in China to just a 3% increase this year.Market analysts revised downward forecasts for 2020 annual global semiconductor revenue growth from 7-10% to 0-5%, while some expect negative growth. The recent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe, the United States and other regions have created more uncertainty. Declining end-user demand for electronics will drive down spending on upstream equipment for both memory and logic IC device makers. For Chu and his SEMI China staff, the postponement of SEMICON China 2020 has been a “major challenge,” he said. “It is a huge project to communicate and coordinate with the government and to reconfirm with exhibitors and industry leaders.”As a leading industry platform, SEMICON China attracts a large number of global customers and suppliers each year. The major China domestic suppliers, leading foundries and OSATs have confirmed their attendance in SEMICON China 2020. Most key foreign suppliers are planning to staff the event with local teams in case some executives are unable to enter China by June due to travel restrictions if the COVID-19 virus has not been brought under control in the United States, Europe and other regions. To assure the success of the concurrent Forums, SEMI has prepared multiple contingency plans, including live broadcast, video and slide presentations. SEMI will also hold the grand opening session at a larger venue than last year’s event to accommodate more attendees with more sitting distance apart. SEMI will follow government guidelines to implement appropriate public health and safety measures during SEMICON China. "Ensuring the welfare of all exhibitors and guests and providing a safe exhibition environment is SEMI’s top priority," Chu said.Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.

IntroductionStarting July 4, 2022, PFOA (Perfluorooctanoic acid) levels in semiconductor manufacturing and related equipment (SMRE), including replacement parts, entering the European Union (EU) will be restricted to 25 ppb per component (or any part thereof). Semiconductor equipment components (and the parts thereof) of particular concern include fluid tubing and fittings, pipe/seal tape, wire and cable insulation, filters, valves, tanks, panels, reaction vessels and o-rings; if they are made from fluoropolymers or fluoroelastomers.When PFOA is used as an aid to the manufacture fluoropolymers such as PTFE, PFA, PVDF or fluoroelastomers such as FKM and FFKM (collectively referred to as fluoromaterials), an unintended PFOA residue can be trapped within the fluoromaterial. Buyers of components used in SMRE are usually unaware of the processing method used for any fluoromaterials they may contain, and, as a consequence, the potential for PFOA residue. This lack of information about potential PFOA residues could result in regulatory enforcement actions and restricted market access, particularly in the EU.The impact of restrictions on fluoromaterials used in SMRE has been introduced in previous SEMI articles ‘Fluorinated Compound Restrictions May Trigger Costly Equipment Changes’ and ‘Fluorinated Substance Restrictions Triggers Costly Equipment Changes.’PFOA and its related compounds, such as the ammonium salt APFO (collectively called PFOA in this article), are recognized internationally as hazardous chemicals and are now targeted for regulatory restriction in the U.S., Taiwan, Canada and the EU. The UN Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) is also considering listing PFOA, which could lead to additional international restrictions.The SEMI EHS Division PFOA Compliance Working Group has been working to understand: The likelihood of PFOA residue entering the supply chain of new components The residual level of PFOA in fluoromaterials produced prior to the phase out of PFOA by some manufacturers The impact of PFOA residue on the secondary equipment market This SEMI resource page, ‘Elimination of PFOA from the Equipment Supply Chain,’ and the supporting FAQ contain the Working Group’s key findings and conclusions.PFOA in the Fluoromaterial Supply ChainSignatories to the U.S. EPA Stewardship Program, which include FluoroCouncil members, eliminated PFOA from their manufacturing processes by 2013. However, other fluoromaterial manufactures – particularly in China, Russia and India – might still use PFOA and pose a significant risk to the worldwide supply chain.China, the world’s largest fluoromaterial producer, accounts for 53 percent of global production of PTFE and 38 percent of worldwide production of PVDF, FEP and FKM. An estimated 75 percent to 85 percent of fluoromaterials are manufactured using PFOA in China. Fully 25 percent of these fluoromaterials are exported, primarily to the U.S, Japan, EU and India. What’s more, finished goods made from or containing fluoromaterials that might be used as components in SMRE are exported from China.Documentation that traces fluoromaterials through the supply chain back to the original fluoromaterial manufacturer is key to meeting the PFOA regulatory requirements. This traceability can be straightforward in cases when an SMRE manufacturer directly specifies the use of a fluoromaterial in a custom-fabricated fluoromaterial component. However, for off-the-shelf components (e.g., cable ties, wiring insulation, tubing) or the components assembled from these components (e.g., controllers), the complexity and dynamics of the supply chain makes traceability back to the original fluoromaterial producer almost impossible.Residual PFOA Levels If, or how much, PFOA/APFO residue is contained in a fluoromaterial depends on the manufacturing process. Details of the manufacturing processes are proprietary and vary widely. Post manufacturing thermal treatments, such as sintering, extrusion, and molding, can result in the rapid thermal decomposition of APFO above 250C, but PFOA is significantly more stable. The temperature and time of thermal treatments is also proprietary and varies depending on the type of fluoromaterial and what is being made.This variability makes it impossible to estimate the likely level of trapped PFOA or APFO in a finished component or a part thereof. It is unwise to use data on the level of residue made known for one case to extrapolate the level of residue across the fluoromaterial industry. However, an industry-wide range on the order of 1ppm-10ppm (nearly 1000 times the EU limit) is suspected. Testing for the presence of PFOA/APFO at 25ppb in components is also problematic as there is no standard test method, and results among the custom methods developed in each test lab may vary.Given this uncertainty in test methods, a system of supplier declarations warrants consideration.Impact on Secondary (Used) EquipmentThe EU REACH restrictions apply to SMRE and replacement parts placed on the market at any time (not just initial placement – known as “first placing on the market”). For fluoromaterial components manufactured prior to 2013, there is a higher likelihood of residual PFOA/APFO levels exceeding the 25ppb limit of EU REACH. In principle all the SMRE components containing fluoromaterials should be investigated, and those containing PFOA above 25ppb must be replaced before the SMRE can be legally placed again on the EU market. Companies (e.g., semiconductor manufacturers) in the EU who wish to sell used equipment within the EU will be required to demonstrate the used equipment is in compliance. Selling older used equipment would likely be unprofitable after necessary investigations and component replacements are completed.Next StepsWhile the EU semiconductor manufacturing industry heavily depends on the secondary (used) equipment market, EU regulators may be unaware of the PFOA restriction’s damaging impact to this market. The EHS Division PFOA Working Group, in conjunction with SEMI Europe, is now considering how to bring this concern to the attention of regulators and to collaborate and lobby for effective changes including possible modifications to the EU Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) regulation.