McKinsey & Company

About 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is driven by consumer demand. What consumers are looking for is influenced by, for example, fashion trends, product innovations, environmental forces, and personal interests. Regarding personal interests: Sales of electronic components at Fry’s are poor. Radio Shack stores even vanished completely. Today’s consumers do not like to tinker; they want to buy software-enabled, user-friendly systems with over-the-air updating that serves their current and future requirements well – e.g. smartphones. System vendors followed the same transition, and so did semiconductor vendors. Instead of offering (low margin) components, they develop and manufacture big portions of, if not complete, (high value) hardware and software solutions for electronic systems, targeted at specific markets.Mid-August, two SEMI webinars outlined the Smart Mobility market and what it expects from system and semiconductor vendors.SEMI's Smart Initiative“None of us knows as much as all of us,” “Connect – Collaborate – Innovate,” and other strategic considerations have motivated SEMI to become the gateway for the $2 Trillion (= 2,000 Billion) global electronic design and manufacturing supply chain. Figure 1 shows how many companies and organizations have joined this large industry organization, to work together efficiently and serve customer demands cost-effectively. Especially in four high-growth markets/application areas – Smart Data, Smart Mobility, Smart MedTech, and Smart Manufacturing – SEMI enables highly rewarding cooperation. Figure 1: Overview of SEMI members, technology communities, and areas of focus. (Courtesy: SEMI) MEMS and Sensors for Smart Mobility Tim Brosnihan, executive director of MEMS Sensor Industry Group (MSIG), moderated the webinar on MEMS and sensors for Smart Mobility. Bettina Weiss, Chief of Staff and Global Smart Mobility Lead at SEMI, presented the overview. In addition to Figure 1 above, she showed how many companies are now supporting SEMI’s Smart Mobility efforts and have joined the Global Automotive Advisory Council (GAAC). The European GAAC was founded in 2018, based on requests from VW and Audi. Regional chapters have also been formed in the U.S., China, Taiwan, and Japan. Figure 2 shows the current members of the American GAAC – new members are welcomed in all five regions. Figure 2: Current GAAC members in the Americas. (Courtesy: SEMI) Market Trends and Technology Innovations in MEMS Sensors Andreas Breiter, Partner at McKinsey Company, addressed markets, and Armen Mkrtchyan, Associate Partner at McKinsey Company, spoke about technology. Breiter addressed both vehicle and infrastructure changes required, as well as many ongoing and planned activities to enable Smart Mobility. He outlined autonomy, connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility of vehicles as the major opportunities for MEMS sensors. Mkrtchyan showed which technologies enable Smart Mobility and which regions will invest how much in software, hardware, and services by 2030, to capture data and process it in partially/fully autonomous vehicles’ Domain Control Units (DCUs) – see Figure 3. Figure 3: Pre-COVID market estimates. (Courtesy: McKinsey Company) MEMS-based sensors are used in vehicles to monitor pressures and perform as accelerometers or gyroscopes. Non-MEMS-based sensors capture light (e.g. for time-of-flight distance measurements) or magnetic fields (e.g. for RPM measurements). Regarding the many infrastructure upgrades needed for enabling autonomous vehicles on the roads, in Figure 4, Breiter gives road planners a lot of food for thought and planning work. City planners face much more complex challenges. That’s why electronic systems will also be needed to make these large infrastructure investments earn returns. Figure 4: Smart roads are essential for autonomous driving. (Courtesy: McKinsey Company) EDA and Smart Mobility The second Smart Mobility webinar focused on how Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tool vendors, Intellectual Property (IP, System Building Blocks) vendors, and system/IC Design Services can contribute to the success of Smart Mobility. Bob Smith, executive director of Electronic System Design Alliance (ESDA), moderated the webinar, highlighting where the relatively small but essential ESDA and its members fit in the semiconductor ecosystem – see Figure 5. Figure 5: EDA, IP, and design services enable the entire electronics ecosystem. (Courtesy: ESDA) Bettina Weiss explained how SEMI and the Smart Mobility Team are working to bring together stakeholders in the semiconductor ecosystem in general and the Smart Mobility segment specifically, to jointly address topics of common interest, work on solutions and agree upon standards where and when needed. Market Trends and Technology Innovations in EDA, IP and Design Services Andreas Breiter and Armen Mkrtchyan presented McKinsey’s perspectives regarding these topics. In addition to the above-mentioned market data, Breiter emphasized that DCUs are playing an increasingly important role in capturing the data provided by smart sensors, are processing it, and initiating appropriate actions. Together with application-specific software, these DCUs perform tasks like sensor fusion, manage creature comfort, assure safe operation of the vehicle, and secure communication with the outside world (Figure 6). Figure 6: High growth for DCU; likely shift in business models. (Courtesy: McKinsey Company) Mkrtchyan addressed EDA, IP, and services for Smart Mobility from 10 different technical perspectives. Here are the highlights. Component failures can and will have severe consequences in Smart Mobility. Therefore screening, testing, and exhaustive verification are extremely important. Software content is likely to increase at 10% CAGR during this decade. To increase the productivity of software and middleware developers, he emphasized that standards need to be agreed upon. Over-the-air (OTA) updating capabilities are needed. That’s why cybersecurity is important to keep vehicles current and safe. Power train electronics need to function at up to 150°C. New materials will be needed to increase reliability, reduce cooling efforts, and lower unit costs. Last, but not least, Mkrtchyan emphasized that every city needs to design its own infrastructure, not only to enable Smart Mobility but also to monetize the large investments needed; EDA, IP and design support will help to achieve both. In summary, he stated that Design and IP as well as packaging and test will be the most impacted areas in the transition to Smart Mobility. Personal Comments After having attended several MSIG events, I am impressed by how MEMS, NEMS (Nano…), and sensors can lend machines in many ways sight, smell, taste, touch, and hearing. They can replicate these human senses, often better than found in us. If you, like me, celebrated when your first modem enabled your PC to communicate with the entire world, you’ll appreciate the value MEMS and sensors can and will add to machines’ “communication skills.” Also, I can assure you that innovative engineers in this field will find many new ways to capture data in the physical, chemical, and biological domains and enable machines to keep humans safe. (I look forward to a handheld Covid-19 sensor that provides results within a few seconds!) Having worked for a small, then a large EDA vendor, many years ago, and for the ESD Alliance several years ago, I know how difficult it is to motivate innovative software developers to work together or agree upon standards. I am glad that the ESD Alliance is now working closely with SEMI. Most SEMI member companies, and their innovative employees, have learned over the years how important standards are to reduce development cost, processing, and test time, as well as time to profit. I wish Bob Smith and the ESDA members all the best for cooperating closely to define design standards, bi-directional hand-off points up and down the entire supply chain, primarily at the interface between design and manufacturing. I want to encourage EDA and IP experts to work closely with the experienced and knowledgeable people in materials, equipment, manufacturing, and test. 5G mm-wave communication, artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML), reliable solutions for Smart Mobility, and development/characterization of new materials offer great opportunities and challenges for design AND manufacturing. Together, these two big camps can monetize required solutions much better and faster, than on their own. Your contact at SEMI can tell you how and where you can watch the webinar recordings and/or download all the slides. P.S.: Having two eCars and one eBike in our garage encourages me to appreciate SEMI’s efforts in advance Smart Mobility! Republished with permission from 3D InCites.

In the first part of this double feature, we looked at the automotive industry’s transition toward a mobility ecosystem and the shifting business model perspective from selling vehicles to miles. At the core of these changing dynamics are four trends represented by the acronym ACES: Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared mobility. Each of these trends is largely enabled by microelectronics through computer processors, sensor units, and communication architectures. Part 2 of this series explores the business opportunities at the transition from automotive to mobility, and the specific role SEMI can play as a natural bridge between the two ecosystems.Electronics and Software as Drivers for Automotive InnovationThe ACES trends represent an acceleration of the shift in automotive from the industry’s traditionally strong focus on mechanics and hardware toward electronics and software. This transition to electronics and software as drivers for automotive innovation already started in the 1970s with electronic fuel injection, anti-lock brakes, trip computers, and many other attributes that are now considered standard features. As a result, there are now hardly any automotive systems that are not computer-controlled. A vehicle without power windows and locks, electronic climate control, or MEMS-reliant airbags are basically unimaginable in many markets.As shown in the graphic[1] depicting the electronics share of total vehicle cost, the numbers paint a clear picture of the continued growth of electronics over time, with a 44% share today expected to grow to 50% by 2030. McKinsey Company estimates the automotive software and electrical/electronic (E/E) components markets combined will grow at a 7% CAGR from USD 238 billion in 2020 to US$469 billion by 2030[2].The assumption of continued and sustained growth presents a promising outlook for semiconductor and sensor content in vehicles over the next decade, which is particularly strong in the electrification space. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) already contain $900 worth of semiconductor content, and battery-based electric vehicles (EVs) contain $1,000 worth of semiconductors – much higher than the average of approximately $450 of content in conventional vehicles[2]. Other business opportunities in the mid-term (3-5 years) include software, battery technology, infrastructure (charging stations, other hardware components, etc.), as well as vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-environment (V2X) communication. These technologies also demonstrate how the industry’s business focus is expanding beyond the confinement of an individual vehicle to increasingly contemplating the evolving ecosystem around it, resulting in real mobility solutions. Image credit: Continental AG This creates significant opportunities for a large number of SEMI members in the semiconductors and sensors business by connecting them with new customers and partners in the automotive and mobility supply chains, primarily vehicle manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers, and together realizing new business in new automotive applications such as: Autonomy, including ADAS (GPUs, LiDAR, radar, camera, accelerometers...) Connectivity (link to outside infrastructure and in-cabin devices, roadside units...) Electrification (power electronics, battery monitoring, H2 detection in fuel-cell...) Sharing (customizable vehicle interior, trackable mobility devices such as scooters...) In-cabin experience (media systems, displays, VR/AR, occupant detection...) Vehicle architecture (flex-ray, automotive ethernet, diagnostics, smart parts...) Safety and security (HW/SW firewall, parts authentication, upgradability...) In these partnerships, the vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers clearly benefit from leveraging semiconductor capabilities including: Device and system reliability/robustness/quality (“Zero Defect”), which creates opportunities for new SEMI Standards (e.g. wafer-to-device/system traceability) New design architectures for added functionality, safety and security New packaging solutions (automotive OEMs are already participating in the Heterogeneous Integration Roadmap, seeking to collaborate with device manufactures and Original Semiconductor Assembly Test (OSAT) companies to reduce costs and differentiate on automotive-grade solutions Sensors and imaging (cameras) SEMI Smart Mobility Initiative – Connecting Mobility and ElectronicsSEMI launched its Smart Mobility Initiative in 2018 based on the mandate of providing “SEMI members with access to new business opportunities and collaborative platforms in the automotive electronics supply chain.” The initiative is currently focused on synchronizing the automotive and microelectronics supply chains for automotive electronics innovation – in particular semiconductor devices, sensors, and related products manufactured for this space and sold to vehicle OEMs and Tier 1s. To facilitate closer dialogue among stakeholders from this combined ecosystem, SEMI formed the Global Automotive Advisory Council (GAAC) which now has five regional chapters and represents dozens of companies. Collectively, GAAC members discuss and act on a wide range of topics, from Silicon Carbide (SiC) standardization to new design architectures and closing the OEM requirement gap.While continuing to build on the strong automotive foundation, SEMI’s Smart Mobility Initiative is now expanding its reach and scope of activities to broader mobility themes, such as infrastructure and battery technology and Smart City, to infuse SEMI member communities and the GAAC with new stakeholders and new ideas. These are exciting times!Please contact Bettina Weiss, Chief of Staff at SEMI, at [email protected] for further information about SEMI’s Smart Mobility Initiative, the Global Automotive Advisory Council, and how SEMI can help your organization navigate electronics in the automotive industry to drive innovation in the mobility space.[1] see graphic, created with data from NXP / Freescale[2] Source: McKinsey Company, 2019Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 1: Autonomous, Connected, Electric and SharedBettina Weiss is Chief of Staff and Global Smart Mobility Lead at SEMI. Sven Beiker is Smart Mobility Consultant at SEMI.

While the full contours of the next normal are still unclear, semiconductor companies largely acted decisively at the beginning of the crisis to build resilience and position the sector for future growth. To plan ahead, now is the time to think about the next normal and set the strategic direction needed to emerge even stronger from this humanitarian and economic crisis.Global GDP recoveryMcKinsey has developed nine GDP recovery scenarios, and as the economic situation has developed, we surveyed more than 2,000 global executives to discover that two of those scenarios are most likely. Both of those scenarios assume that the spread of coronavirus is eventually controlled and catastrophic economic damage is avoided. In the first scenario, global GDP is expected to recover in the first quarter of 2021; in the second, recovery is forecasted to be delayed until late 2022. The geographies of recovery will vary, as some industries and regions will recover faster than others.Semiconductor Demand Forecast for 2020 and 2021The COVID-19 crisis has created an unprecedented challenge for the semiconductor industry. During the 2007/2008 recession, consumer demand stagnated. This crisis, however, has affected both demand and supply, creating dual pressures. Our demand forecast is based on the two most likely McKinsey GDP recovery scenarios as well as on extensive surveys, expert interviews and research on the recovery in China. Charts 1 and 2 (below) show that the semiconductor market as a whole is expected to decline by up to 10% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting slowdown in the global economy. In 2021, however, most segments are expected to grow, with total market size surpassing 2019 value in the more positive scenario. The PC market segments will see the least growth, while the wireless communication and automotive segments should expect to be hit hardest by this crisis with a decline of as much as 21% and 27% respectively in 2020. However, they are expected to bounce back in 2021 with growth of up to 19% and 36% in the positive outlook scenario.It might take some time for the semiconductor market to fully recover. The timing of the industry’s recovery depends largely on the containment of the virus, government economic stabilization efforts, and the global economic recovery.1. Products include memory, micro components, logic, analog, discrete, optoelectronics, and sensors/actuators.2. 2020 estimates were calculated using 2019 baseline and percentages have been rounded.3. Gray values indicate 2020 growth forecast; blue values indicate growth forecast for 2021 only. Sources: IHS, Expert Interviews 1. Products include memory, micro components, logic, analog, discrete, optoelectronics, and sensors/actuators.2. 2020 estimates were calculated using 2019 baseline and percentages have been rounded.3. Gray values indicate 2020 growth forecast; blue values indicate growth forecast for 2021 only.Sources: IHS, Expert Interviews Emerging stronger from this crisisSemiconductor companies had already developed effective crisis-management strategies during past crisis and industry downturns. However, this situation is unique. Overall, we see three main activities that can help semiconductor players with through-cycle resilience and growth: Define the starting position: Creating a baseline can help inform future strategic decisions by providing a holistic view of the current strategy, internal capabilities and external position. Develop economic and political recovery scenarios: Developing and deciding which economic and political recovery scenarios to focus on will enable companies to create company specific scenarios. Therefore, it is important to analyze demand in the short and long terms, along with the effects of subsidies, stimulus packages and industry dynamics. Prepare for the next normal: To prepare for the next normal and emerge even stronger from this crisis, companies should focus on how to gain market share during the downturn. As competitors focus on resilience, companies who see themselves in a financially stable position can focus on increasing their company’s growth and market share. This mindset, however, is most effective when established across the entire organization. Opportunities to emerge even stronger include defining a strategic, systematic approach to investment and divestment as appropriate. This means that several smaller deals that accrue to a meaningful amount of market capitalization over the years often have a more positive impact than one large transaction. History tells us that finding pockets of growth and revising capex, R D and M A strategies are the building block to emerge stronger from a crisis. As Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel once said, "You can't save your way out of a recession." This translates into moderate capex and R D budget cuts with the focus on future growth drivers. These approaches are supported by insights from previous crises.Although the crisis has presented a major challenge, it also offers the chance for companies to set themselves apart from competitors. The semiconductor industry as a whole has been more resilient than many other industries. The global push toward digitization has also been a major tailwind that will likely be a key element of the global economic recovery.Ondrej Burkacky is a partner with McKinsey Company based in its Munich office. He leads McKinsey’s semiconductor and software work in Europe, as well as its global COVID-19 semiconductor task force. For McKinsey’s latest insights on the business implications of the coronavirus pandemic, visit its website, which is updated daily.

In much of post-lockdown China, urban life is humming. The streets of Beijing and Shanghai are bustling with traffic, smog again shrouds city skylines with the resurgence of economic activity, property sales are bouncing back and a revival in consumer confidence is taking hold. Emerging from monthslong shelter-in-place orders, the nation has seized a large measure of control in containing COVID-19 as it breaks fertile new ground in pandemic response and recovery. In Wuhan, Hubei, the fountainhead of the novel coronavirus, one company offers a striking example of China’s muscular COVID-19 containment efforts, carefully continuing to operate through January and February as the virus set root, said Karel Eloot, a Shenzhen-based senior partner and Asia leader of Transformation and Operations practices at McKinsey Company, speaking at a recent webinar presented with SEMI. Soon, COVID-19 spread to eight other provinces that suffered serious outbreaks and forced the nationwide lockdown that sent China’s GDP plunging 7 percent, its first contraction in 28 years. An impressive array of safety protocols, many designed to reduce people density as a bulwark against the virus, animates China’s fight against COVID-19, a return-to-work movement that is laying a path forward for companies around the world. It is these measures, Eloot said, that have kept the Wuhan company afloat and helped other businesses across China restore operations with unusual speed. Community and Social Distancing – The Heart of China’s COVID-19 Response In establishing safeguards, many companies started by assessing staffing requirements, identifying workers essential to sustaining on-site operations while allowing others, such as white-collar staff, to work from home, though some have since returned to their offices. Seen as non-essential, some factory maintenance workers have been instructed to stay home. To fill staffing gaps, business have turned to multi-skilling practices, such as having on-site supervisors and engineers step out of their daily roles to handle lower-level operations activities. Much of the focus has been on community distancing, with businesses quickly identifying workers suffering even minor COVID-19 symptoms and using contact tracing to prevent sick or vulnerable employees from entering offices and factories and turning them into hot zones for community spread, Eloot said. Manufacturing facilities are staggering work shifts to reduce people density, closely monitoring workers’ body temperatures with an eye toward other symptoms, and following up with medical tests and quarantines as needs dictates. QR codes, long a staple of e-commerce, have been a particularly effective weapon in combatting COVID-19. Companies are deployed the scanning technology to identify workers by color code – green, yellow or red – and assign various levels of site access depending on who they’ve been in contact with. Some factory workstations are now walled off by transparent plastic sheeting to prevent COVID-19 infection through aerosol drift. In business meetings and lunchrooms, staffers sit spaced a safe distance apart and facing the same direction to avoid crosscurrents of the microscopic respiratory droplets that can carry the virus. Others eat in isolation. Meeting room windows are opened, weather permitting, to admit fresh air. And elevators – perfect petri dishes for contagion – are shuttered to ward off human clusters, shifting all floor-to-floor movement to staircases. Companies united by the common goal to keep goods flowing through supply chains are providing masks and other personal protective devices to smaller players most vulnerable to the economic shock of COVID-19. The aim: Shield the companies from the potentially crippling effects of the virus to avoid supply chain breakdowns that can undercut the performance of the whole. Even competitors have formed unexpected alliances, sharing parts and components that are in short supply. “Some sectors have maintained steady production throughout the crisis” thanks to these practices, Eloot said. “China has been able to create safe communities where people can operate as normal.” Executive Uncertainty Reigns, Hope Springs Eternal with Innovation The objective of China’s fast, forceful response to the COVID-19 outbreak is economic: A V-shaped rebound after the 7 percent wallop to its GDP in the first quarter of the year. The trajectory is among nine economic recovery scenarios McKinsey Company presented to more than 2,000 executives worldwide in a recent survey seeking their views on the likelihood of each. The business leaders coalesced around two – a full restoration of global GDP growth that could materialize this year or extend into next, or a two- to three-year recovery following the initial economic tsunami, Sven Smit, an Amsterdam-based senior partner with McKinsey and global leader of the McKinsey Global Institute and global COVID-19 response team, said at the webinar. The executives see the multi-year recovery as the most likely. The shorter rebound ranked second on a scale of probabilities. Notably, the business leaders found the V-shaped bounceback China is attempting – returning to GDP growth in one quarter – the least likely outcome. But the biggest surprise from the survey, Smit said, was executives’ view that of the two major global interventions for restoring GDP growth – viral and economic – one will be ineffective, reflecting their deep uncertainty about what lies ahead. A growing body of knowledge about COVID-19 tempers that doubt. It’s established fact that the virus is highly contagious, more lethal than the flu, and spread by means including aerosols and touching contaminated surfaces. But only recently has more insight emerged about human immunity. Broad-based blood testing in the Netherlands has discovered that only 3 percent to 4 percent of the people screened are immune to the coronavirus, leaving the vast majority of the population without natural biological protection – a sweeping vulnerability evident in Asian countries hit early by the virus only to see fresh flare-ups after initial containment. Smit warned of the pandemic’s potential resurgence. Testing has revealed that coronavirus cases are underreported by a staggering 10- to 15-fold, a clarion call that countries “need to be very careful about how they re-open economies.” That means in order to keep COVID-19 at bay until a vaccine is developed, the best defenses will remain temperature monitoring, contact tracing, quarantining, social distancing, mask wearing, frequent hand-washing and other proven protective measures. And while the relative contribution of each safeguard to slowing COVID-19’s spread is unknown, Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan and other Asian countries have shown that “if you apply them all, you are likely to keep this virus under control,” Smit said. It remains to be seen whether protections the U.S. and European countries have put in place will stave off the virus as effectively as the rigorous measures implemented by Asian countries and, if the Western regions deploy a different cocktail of safety protocols, how well they will work. The re-opening of their economies promises to reveal the answers – and the McKinsey recovery scenario they’ll face. These and other open questions help explain the uncertainty of the executives McKinsey polled. Pandemic Supercharges, Adds New Urgency to Long-Term Trends What is known is that, far from upending the way all organizations operate, COVID-19 is supercharging secular trends and showing that people can react with dizzying velocity when confronting global mortal threats. That speed, Smit said, “is not determined by the potential of technology, but by events." For decades, doctors and technologists have teamed to develop ways to examine and treat people from afar, yet telemedicine managed to eke out only small, incremental gains in adoption. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, patients have flocked online, with virtual doctor’s visits accounting for more than 70 percent of all physician-patient interactions. “People like it, and we can reach many more patients as a result. It happened in a few weeks,” Smit said. Similarly, teachers and unions have only inched toward digital communications for years, fearing job losses in education at the hands of technology. When schools closed recently under shelter-in-place orders, teachers quickly switched to online lessons. The transition, Smit said, took one weekend. Meanwhile, as office workers holed up at home, usage of teleconferencing applications skyrocketed. “We’re collectively learning at unprecedented speed,” Smit said. “We’re sharing. We’re learning about supply chains. We’re learning about collaboration. We’re learning about masks. We’re learning about contact tracing. We’re learning how to work more efficiently. We’re learning from real-time data about the behavior of people. And we’re investing collectively enormous sums in finding cures and treatments and expanding hospital capacity.” While the coronavirus’s blistering spread caught many countries off-guard, Smit expects scientists to spare no effort to innovate. Expressing hope that new medical interventions will be available by summer, Smit said the world needs to buttress its key lines of defense against the coronavirus until a vaccine is developed – a shield that will quicken the global economic recovery. “The race is on," he said. Related blog COVID-19: Economic and Microelectronics Industry Impacts – Insights from McKinsey Company For McKinsey’s latest insights on the coronavirus pandemic, visit its website, which is updated daily. For the latest COVID-19 information and SEMI event updates SEMI is providing members, visit Coronavirus Resources. Michael Hall is a marketing communications manager at SEMI.

For five days in the latter half of March, the pall of the heavy human and economic toll COVID-19 has exacted in China appeared to be lifting. The epicenter of Wuhan reported no new coronavirus infections through domestic transmission. And in an initial step to loosen its nationwide lockdown, China began reversing restrictions on travel within its borders.Now, in another sign of progress, the region’s idled factory workforce is preparing to return to the production lines. Outside of Hubei province, home to Wuhan, most manufacturing workers are expected to be back on the job by the end of this month, with the proportion of manufacturing employees returning to work in Hubei cities except Wuhan reaching 70 percent by then, said Didier Chenneveau, Partner, Supply Chain Practice, McKinsey Company, in a late-March webinar presented by the business consultancy and SEMI.McKinsey is also “seeing evidence of a rebound in demand led by China’s online sales” as rising consumer confidence and a surge in the popularity of work-from-home policies spur strong spending on laptop computers, Chenneveau said.The turnaround stands in stark contrast to the unprecedented drop in demand McKinsey saw across retail and durable goods in China early in the year. Over the first two months, passenger car sales plunged 90 percent, smart phone receipts 40 percent and retail sales 21 percent, leading to what Chenneveau calls a whiplash effect that could disrupt supply chains as manufacturers and shipping companies scramble to meet pent-up demand once a recovery takes hold. As the outlook for China’s factories and suppliers brightens, concerns are shifting to the ripple effect of its deep manufacturing pullback on demand for goods in the United States and Europe. Sharp disruptions to global supply chains caused by labor shortages and knotty logistics challenges have also become worrisome. And while China is buoyed by the prospect of normalizing its workforce and manufacturing capabilities, parts shortages are bottlenecking production. In the United States and Europe, where 60 percent of air freight is carried in cargo holds of passenger aircraft, logistics concerns loom large with the widespread flight groundings. “Logistics must be a priority in any crisis war room because it’s a big challenge,” Chenneveau said.Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain ImpactsIn Asia, the semiconductor supply chain is working to overcome intractable challenges caused by COVID-19 including sourcing raw materials for chip manufacturing and maintaining assembly and test operations, Mark Patel, Sr. Partner Semiconductor Practice Lead, McKinsey Company, said at the webinar. Those problems cascade to foundries and IDMs even as they confront the compounding issue of a shortage of fab operators and engineers. Downstream, the inability to package, test and qualify products risks exacerbating the supply constraints.Patel said another acute challenge is that most semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers are operating under restricted practices, making it harder to sustain engineering activities vital to new product introductions, new process development and capital equipment expansion. In the longer term, the supply chain fallout hold implications for product life cycles and investments in capacity and next-generation technology – factors that analysts will need to monitor in evaluating the economic impact.Returning Workers Key to Economic RecoveryIssuing shelter-in-place orders have been an effective antidote to the spread of COVID-19 but a double-edged sword as nations worldwide sustain the economic blowback. Discretionary consumer spending on items such as automobiles has dropped by 45 percent globally so far this year, business investment has fallen and trade has seen a sharp slowdown, said Sven Smit, Chairman and Director at the McKinsey Global Institute, speaking at the webinar.A lockdown for as little as a month can slash aggregate global GDP by as much as 10 percent, a scenario McKinsey expects to play out in the second quarter of 2020. The drop would be the deepest since World War II and larger than the plunge in the first quarter of the Great Depression, raising the question of how long governments can afford to keep workers holed up at home.“The economic shock is unprecedented,” Smit said. “We’ve never sent people home to not work. Even in World War II, next to the front lines, people were harvesting food.”China offers a potential blueprint for economic recovery. McKinsey estimates that China’s rigorous containment efforts could help its economy bounce back in as little as six months – a V-shaped rebound. Western nations generally have not been as forceful with their containment measures. For them, the fight against the pathogen could be prolonged, deepening the economic damage.Yet even with the best protective lockdowns, a new challenge arises: The longer shelter-in-place orders remain in effect to contain the spread of the virus, the longer the economic impact drags on. “Until the path to return to work becomes clearer, people will not be confident to spend,” Smit said.Confronted with that reality, governments worldwide must strike the delicate balance between safeguarding the lives of people – critical forces of economic growth through consumer spending – and limiting the economic shock. The faster the virus can be brought to heel, the softer the impact to economies around the world. And the stronger the return-to-work protocols in place once COVID-19 has been brought under control, the faster workers can get back to their jobs. Smit believes resolving both issues simultaneously is not only possible but necessary for a return to normalcy.“That’s the imperative of our time,” he said. Related blog COVID-19: The Way Forward – Insights from McKinsey Company For McKinsey’s latest insights on the coronavirus pandemic, visit its website, which is updated daily.For the latest COVID-19 information and SEMI event updates SEMI is providing members, visit Coronavirus Resources.Michael Hall is a marketing communications manager at SEMI.

As technology companies worldwide struggle to narrow the yawning gender parity gap, organizations in other industries ranging from insurance and food services to banking have emerged as guiding lights for how to boost the number of women in the workplace. MetLife, the 48,000-employee insurance giant, is among the standouts. In 2015, the New York-based company launched Developing Women’s Career Experience, a 14-month program designed to hone the business and strategic acumen of high-potential female workers. The goal was to increase the sense of urgency to promote women. The program bore fruit, expanding the representation of female managers and entry-level workers to 50 percent. Over the past five years, Sodexo, the French food services and facilities management company headquartered in Paris, has also upped female representation on its list of corporate priorities, expanding the ranks of women in entry and manager roles by 10 percent on average. More impressively, the number of women senior vice presidents has grown 20 percent and those in the C-suite have doubled.Sodexo drove the increases by developing a scorecard to hold managers accountable for diversity and inclusion and tying their performance to total compensation. Fully 10 percent of their bonuses were linked to strides in diversity and inclusion. Leaders at the 470,000-employee company scored points for hiring, promoting and retaining more women and underrepresented groups and could hike the total by taking other steps to improve the work culture by demonstrating inclusive leadership.“We do see companies taking bold actions and are seeing tremendous results,” said Audrey Bernardo, a partner at consultancy McKinsey Company, as she presented the case studies at Diversity – Women in Tech to kick off FLEX|MEMS Sensors Technical Congress (MSTC) 2020 last week in San Jose.And it turns out the payoffs matter not only for the bottom line but also a company’s ability to attract and retain the best talent. Citing research from the McKinsey Company and Lean In 2019 report Women in the Workplace as well as McKinsey’s 2018 Delivering through Diversity, Bernardo noted that gender-diverse companies are 24 percent more likely to financially outperform their less inclusive counterparts, while organizations with higher ethnic diversity are 33 percent more likely to outshine less diverse companies.Younger workers are particularly sensitive to diversity biases. The survey of more 250,000 employees at 600 companies found that employees under the age of 30 are almost two times more likely than older workers to raise the need for diversity and more likely to see bias in the workplace.“Diversity and inclusion has become a business imperative,” Bernardo said. Yet despite the urgency, gains among tech companies in cultivating a diverse workforce have been hard-won in part because of the challenge to better balance the proportions of male and female workers. And the headwinds start to gather when females are young. According to the report, 15-year-old females are vastly outnumbered by boys in their appetite to work in tech fields, with girls 65 percent to 84 percent less interested in pursuing tech careers than boys the same age.That dynamic extends to females in their college years. Despite earning more degrees than men overall, women account for the minority of tech degrees – ranging from as low as 13 percent representation in Chile and 15 percent in Brazil to as high as 45 percent and 36 percent, respectively, in India and Mexico. In the U.S., women account for just 23 percent of undergraduate degrees in tech.Bernardo praised the growing number of companies that are “reaching further down the age pipeline” to inspire young students to pursue STEM educations and careers in tech and cited the work of the SEMI Foundation – through High Tech U and other programs geared toward young students – to inspire the next generation of industry workers.The picture brightens once women have entered careers at technology hardware companies – they are promoted at only a slightly lower rate than men. Yet when it comes to outside hires, women are brought on board at a much lower rate than men. For example, women account for just 22 percent of the senior vice presidents hired at hardware companies, 17 percent of vice presidents, 22 percent of senior managers and directors, and 25 percent of managers.Part of the challenge for women in senior leadership positions is balancing careers with their home lives since they are two times more likely to be in dual-career households than their male counterparts.“We will never solve the women-in the-workplace problem until we solve the women-in-the-home problem,” Bernardo said.Indeed, giving women the leeway to work from home and take time off for family or personal reasons ranked among the power practices the study found most correlated to diversity and inclusion progress. Others include C-level executive participation in shaping a diversity and inclusion strategy, establishing numeric targets for tracking gender representation across the workforce as Sodexo has done, and unconscious bias training. “D I needs to be visible from the top,” Bernardo said.A shining example of executive support for diversity and inclusion initiatives is the work by Atlanta-based SunTrust Bank to encourage workers to embrace differences in people and build awareness of unconscious bias. In 2018, the 23,000-employee company held a daylong event that included workshops focused on candid conversations about gender, race, disability, LGPTQ identity, religion and military service.The Day of Understanding was sponsored by the SunTrust CEO. Within three years, the proportion of employees viewing the SunTrust workplace as inclusive grew to 80 percent, an 11 percent jump.Michael Hall is a marketing communications manager at SEMI.