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Japan’s semiconductor industry has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic to post robust growth. Far from a temporary setback, COVID-19 will lead to enduring change in how we work and live. And just as automation has been a bulwark against the devastating business impacts of the virus outbreak, increasing digitization will lead to new efficiencies in our industry.These were some of the key takeaways from three SEMI Japan Members Day webinars in June and July that offered the latest updates on COVID-19 impacts to the semiconductor industry and restart strategies for SEMI members. More than 2,000 SEMI members across Japan’s islands attended the webinars featuring the following five speakers: Hideki Kanewaka, Marketing Director, Consulting Lead, Japan, Accenture Japan Ltd. Takayuki Komori, Manager, Marketing Engineering Dept, SUMCO Corporation Taketoshi Hamaguchi, Director, Manufacturing Industry, Microsoft Corporation Akira Minamikawa, Senior Consulting Director, OMDIA (Informa Intelligence LCC) Yuichi Koshiba, Managing Director Partner, Boston Consulting Group COVID-19 Impact on Japan Semiconductor Industry is ModestThe consensus view of the five speakers from various quarters of the industry – consultant, IT service provider, materials supplier, market analyst – was that the Japan semiconductor industry withstood the heavy blows COVID-19 dealt to other industries thanks to strong demand for chips. Shelter-in-place policies and lockdowns spawned by COVID-19 has accelerated the digital transformation rippling around the world as electronics sales have soared to support everything from remote work and education to healthcare and home entertainment including gaming.The rapid growth of cloud usage for video streaming, gaming and remote work is taxing communications network capacity and placing more bandwidth demands on servers, said Akira Minamikawa of OMDIA. According to a recent report by Nokia, communications network traffic has skyrocketed 300 percent for online meetings and 400 percent for gaming, bringing the networks closer to their capacity limits. Minamikawa sees server shipments increasing at 8 percent CAGR through 2024. For the broader chip market, he expects demand for notebooks, solid state and hard disk drives, and gaming to remain strong in 2020. He also predicts rapid 5G penetration for smartphones will boost semiconductor chip industry growth.Still, not all semiconductor segments are expanding, said Yuichi Koshiba of Boston Consulting Group. Chip shipments for end products in markets such as automotive, industrial equipment and aircrafts are on the decline. Slowing demand for chips that power automotive applications in particular could pare sales for some chip companies and distributors since the segment accounts for a high proportion of their overall revenue.State of the Semiconductor IndustryFrom SUMCO’s vantagepoint as a major silicon wafer supplier, the company’s Takayuki Komori sees a number of changes unfolding in the semiconductor industry: Smartphones are driving growing demand for process technology (smaller nodes) and 300mm wafers. Komori estimates the typical high-end smartphone sports 1,700 square millimeters of silicon. 300mm wafers account for 80 percent of that total while more than 50 percent of the devices use leading edge multi-patterning technologies. Smartphones will need more RF chips to support 5G’s high-speed communications and added frequency ranges. Substrates for RF switches and tuners have been shifting from gallium arsenide (GaAs) and other compound semiconductors to silicon. 5G smartphone penetration will accelerate as the cost of integrating CPUs and modem functions into a single chip sees a swift decline. While the sensitivity and resolution of CMOS image sensors have evolved to incorporate innovative backside illumination and stacking technologies, future advances will focus more on products for machine vision applications capable of sensing invisible light bands. Rising adoption of electric vehicles and robotics applications will drive growing demand for power semiconductors that control their motors such as IGBTs and MOSFETs as the production capacity for the devices expands and shifts to 300mm wafer lines. For memory fabs, Minamikawa said utilization remains high as a result of a spending slowdown by major chip manufacturers and will stay elevated even once additional capacity ramps to support robust demand. Foundry fab utilization also remains high despite the pandemic-driven cancellation of smartphone chip orders in March. Minamikawa also sees the utilization rate of micro rising with the surge in demand for notebooks, PCs and servers in the second half of 2020.Transition to New NormalAs people around the world start to settle into new ways of living and working, there’s a growing acceptance that the transformation will be long-lasting. And no area of people’s lives is changing more than their work. Boosted by government subsidies, many small and midsize companies in Japan have started to implement work-from-home policies, an area where major electronics and IT businesses had already instituted reforms, said Hideki Kanewaka of Accenture. A few examples: Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT) announced that half of its employees will continue to work from home in the future. A five-year plan Toshiba launched in 2019 to allow all employees to work from home will likely accelerate. Hitachi plans to allow all employees to work from home starting in April 2021. dwango, a major internet-based entertainment company in Japan, announced it will allow in principle any employees to work remotely. In the critical area of remote sales, Kanewaka pointed to the importance of going beyond online business meetings, paperless transactions and virtual events to devise new ways to attract customers and close deals. Creating online communities and providing rich digital content are also important measures to consider, he said.Manufacturing's Digital TransformationTravel restrictions by most countries to curb the COVID-19 outbreak have also raised barriers to chip companies sending engineers overseas sites to service state-of-art equipment and provide other technical support. Microsoft’s remote assist system deployed by ASML is one tool semiconductor makers can use to overcome this challenge, said Taketoshi Hamaguchi of Microsoft.The system connects a remote equipment service expert with an onsite worker through the internet, allowing the technical expert to provide support through a goggle display with a camera worn by the worker. Guided by the expert, the worker can perform complex services. A Natural User Interface (NUI) helps give the factory worker a clear understanding of the often highly technical instructions.Using artificial intelligence (AI) to increase automation will also help reduce the reliance of semiconductor factories on onsite workers. For example, AI deep learning can be deployed to calibrate equipment autonomously and reduce downtime after scheduled maintenances, Hamaguchi said.Corporate Restart Strategies Beyond factory considerations tied to COVID-19, semiconductor companies will need to adapt their business strategies to new ways of operating. For example, global supply chains will shift to domestic sources and increase redundancy to ensure a steady supply, a change leading to higher overall costs, Koshiba said. Trade routes among regions will also be redrawn as the trade rift between the United States and China and other geopolitical tensions intensify. The total value of those routes is expected to recover by 2023.Koshiba advised companies to evaluate the supply chain trade-offs between stability and cost and factor in potential risks to improve their short-term resilience and drive mid- to long-term supply chain restructuring.After past recessions, 14 percent of companies restored sales growth, Koshiba said. He recommended investing aggressively in growth and seizing M A opportunities during the downturn. Chip companies must also adapt to supply chain changes faster than competitors.Become a SEMI MemberWebinars like the recent SEMI Japan Members Day series have become increasingly important in the mix of programs and services SEMI offers members to help them connect, collaborate and innovate in the microelectronics community. To become a SEMI member, please visit the SEMI website or contact your nearest SEMI office.Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.
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When we entered 2019, our priorities in SEMI Global Advocacy were crystal clear: Continue to advance our public policy priorities under the 4 T’s – Trade, Tax, Talent and Technology – and move toward a global reach. We raised SEMI’s profile on the world stage in representing arguably the most strategic industry sector today as we trained our sights on a number of issues across all four pillars, not the least of which was trade. Along the way, we educated key policymakers about the impact of their decisions on the global semiconductor supply chain, member companies and regional economies.While no one organization can resolve current global trade issues, SEMI did exert its influence effectively on behalf of its members. For example, when Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced its decision to tighten export controls with South Korea in July, SEMI immediately engaged METI and Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Economy (MOTIE) to make clear to METI the potential repercussions of its decision. In parallel, we worked to prevent a retaliatory escalation by MOTIE. Indeed, significant trade challenges remain as tariffs and export controls continue to take their toll on our industry’s globally integrated supply chain. We have much work ahead to ensure our members’ voices continue to be heard. Our well over 100 meetings with government officials this year is only the start of sustained outreach and engagement to better serve our members’ public policy interests. To that end, and based on member input, in 2019 SEMI Global Advocacy made it a priority to restructure to improve communications among our regions around the globe and strengthen member engagement. Each regional office responsible for government affairs is now staffed with a global advocacy liaison. In addition, we have increased staffing in the SEMI Europe office to better address the ever-changing regulatory environment and develop the European Union’s talent pipeline.In SEMI’s advocacy headquarters in Washington, DC, we have filled a new position – Vice President of Industry Advancement and Government Programs – to place greater focus on identifying opportunities to advance programs aligned with member, industry and government interests. We have also filled two additional positions in DC – a Vice President of Global Public Policy and Advocacy and a new Manager of Public Policy and Advocacy – dedicated to public policy work. Both are steeped in experience in trade, export controls and tax policy. In addition, our new Executive Director of the SEMI Foundation boasts expertise in developing and scaling workforce development programs.The end of 2019 culminates the first phase of strategic personnel and program adjustments we envisioned over a year ago and the beginning of more muscular, adaptive advocacy engagement communications. Today, we are in a much stronger position to support you, our members, and meet the public policy priorities established by the SEMI Board of Directors and Board of Industry Leaders. We’re immensely thankful for your continued engagement and look forward to working to advance your interests in 2020 – SEMI’s 50th anniversary!Mike Russo is Vice President of Industry Advancement and Government Programs at SEMI.
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The U.S. on September 1 will levy a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion (List 4) worth of Chinese goods that until now were exempt from duties, President Trump said today. The trade action makes good on the U.S. president’s commitment to impose the new round tariffs in response to China’s failure to deliver on promises to buy more U.S. farm goods and to stop the flow of the painkiller fentanyl into the U.S. The 25 percent tariffs already in effect on $250 billion in goods will remain in place.The new list includes items used in the electronics industry but also encompasses retail products spanning the U.S. economy including clothing, toys and cell phones, exacting a more direct hit to U.S. consumers. A meeting between China and U.S. trade officials in Shanghai this week apparently did little to ease trade tensions. Both sides plan to meet again in September, though expectations for meaningful progress toward resolving their trade differences then are low.The U.S. believes China backtracked from commitments to changing its practices related to forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft. China denies making the pledges and insists on the removal of all tariffs as part of a settlement.The U.S. actions risk backlash from China including non-tariff barriers to trade such as licensing delays, more stringent business-related inspections, and an accelerated rollout of its unreliable entities list, China’s response to the U.S. decision to blacklist telecommunications giant Huawei. The list includes foreign companies, other organizations and individuals that China sees as national security threats or risks to China’s economy.SEMI will continue to urge both nations to reach an agreement consistent with its 10 Principles for the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in Modern Trade Agreements. The principles encourage free and fair trade, open markets, and respect of IP among all players in the global electronics manufacturing supply chain.SEMI member companies impacted by the new U.S. tariffs or facing any new non-tariff barriers in China should contact Jay Chittooran, public policy manager in SEMI’s Global Advocacy Office, at [email protected] Russo is vice president of Global Industry Advocacy at SEMI.
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For public policy lovers, civic-minded, engaged U.S. citizens, and people around the world interested in the U.S. President’s positions and priorities, the annual State of the Union address (SOTU) is “must-see TV.” This year, the anticipation and expectations were different than with past presidents. President Trump is the first U.S. president who has used social media to the extreme that he has. President Trump’s prolific Twitter feed has had an interesting impact on the SOTU. U.S. citizens and people from around the world already know President Trump’s positions on issues, his policy priorities and what gets him excited. There is an ongoing, direct line to the President’s thoughts throughout each and every day. In the past we looked to the SOTU for insights into what the sitting president is really thinking and his future policy priorities. Now, there isn’t much we don’t already know.One looming question this year was whether President Trump would reach out in a conciliatory manner to help bridge the political divide and lay the groundwork to enable some public policy wins and avoid another government shutdown. While there were moments of conciliation, the President made it clear he would not move on areas that are most contentious with the other side of the aisle. For example, the President unequivocally reiterated his intent to build the wall. While the message plays well to his base, it is, in effect, a frontal assault and challenge to Democrats. It’s hard to image that his staunch stance will help move the two parties to work together on substantive policy issues. It may also mean that the wall issue will occupy lawmakers time for the foreseeable future, sidelining debate on other important issues.The best hope is that a bipartisan bill finds its way to the President’s desk that he can sign and use to “declare victory.” However, many political observers believe the likelihood of the President declaring a national security emergency is rising as a maneuver to ensure funding for the wall and avoid a shutdown. While such a declaration would most likely face a court challenge, the President could claim that his decision was a move of last resort and leverage the moment to position Democrats as obstructionists to his base. The scenario does not bode well for the bipartisan support necessary to address other issues.What does this mean for our industry? Were there any points raised in the SOTU that would signal a change in what we are facing regarding trade, tariffs, export controls and immigration? Were any new issues or ideas raised that could help lift the global economy? In short, no. On one hand, the President cited his good relationship with the president of China, but on the other doubled down on his attacks on China, seeming to stand firm to bolster his position at the table as the U.S. and China trade talks continue.What do these dynamics mean for SEMI Global Advocacy? In 2018 we were heavily engaged in efforts to prevent regulations that would inhibit our members' ability to develop and deploy technologies and maintain global market access. We advanced our global advocacy model, leveraging our regional presence around the world. Many of the potential issues we faced emanated from the U.S., including those focused on controlling technology development, limiting trade and enhancing export controls. We also intensified our efforts to address industry talent pipeline issues.In 2019, our public policy focus will be to continue to push back on tariffs, engage members to inform the rule-making process for export controls and to attempt to influence the immigration debate as it pertains to access to talent. In addition, while the U.S. R D tax credit was made permanent through the tax cut in 2017, some of the provisions may have unintended consequences and will need to be modified. How the law is enacted will affect how businesses can deduct qualified research and development and other expenses from their taxable income, so we anticipate activity on the tax front as well.It will also be a big year for SEMI on the workforce development front. SEMI will continue to grow its existing High Tech U (HTU), university and mentor programs. In addition, SEMI will be positioning itself as the global leader in addressing issues related to the talent pipeline by approaching the problem with a full-spectrum, holistic approach that is intended to better address more immediate needs in attracting, training and retaining qualified talent. We’ll also focus on improving the industry image and exciting students at a younger age by providing experiential learning activities throughout a defined educational pathway. Stay tuned on this front as the full program unfolds.In general, we will continue to build our relationships and stature as a leading voice for our members and the end-to-end semiconductor supply chain in the areas of talent, trade, tax and technology (SEMI’s “4 Ts”) and to ensure free and fair trade, access to markets, supply chain growth, IP protections and enhanced efforts to improve cybersecurity. Mike Russo is VP of Global Industry Advocacy at SEMI.
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Meeting Attended by More than 100 Tech Company RepresentativesOver the past decade, China has become a central market for the semiconductor industry. China is now home to more than 30 percent of semiconductor end users worldwide. All semiconductor companies, regardless of size, operate in China. The rise of China’s semiconductor market has been enabled by global commerce and a vast network of supply chains that span the globe.With China now a prominent player in the industry, it has become critically important for semiconductor companies to effectively engage with China. In order to help our member companies better understand the challenges and opportunities and navigate what can be a complex landscape, SEMI hosts annual trade compliance conferences in China for trade professionals. This year, SEMI, with CompTIA and U.S. Information Technology Office (USITO), hosted two global trade seminars in China, one in Shanghai on October 30th and the other in Beijing on November 1st.Over 120 representatives from more than two dozen technology companies attended the 2018 trade compliance seminars. Over the course of the two sessions, speakers from government, business, and law firms highlighted the most pressing trade issues in China. Speakers included thought leaders, trade practitioners and senior Chinese government officials.Sessions included a deep dive on China’s draft customs reform law, a panel discussion on U.S. export controls, and a briefing on how best to engage with China Customs and how China’s products are classified. Another well-received session focused on the status of China’s export control law, which has been in the drafting process for years.However, the overarching question for many attendees was U.S.-China economic relations, which are undergoing a sea change, with the U.S. having imposed or threatened tariffs on all imports from China – totaling more than $500 billion in goods – over the past six months. As a speaker noted during a session on the U.S.-China tensions and the surrounding broader geopolitical impacts, the environment is becoming increasingly complex and volatile. In fact, on the morning of the first session, Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit was added to the U.S. Commerce Department’s entity list, which effectively restricts exports to the company.As a result of the trade actions, ranging from tariffs to enhanced export controls, U.S. semiconductor companies are beginning to increase prices, reduce research and development (R D) budgets, restructure supply chains and take other mitigation actions that will ultimately slow innovation. Certain export controls and other regulations that prohibit U.S.-companies from conducting business with targeted companies will put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage.In fact and as we speak, some companies with China-based operations have cancelled orders from U.S. companies and shifted to suppliers that are not subject to U.S. actions to reduce the associated risks of supply interruption and cost increases. Ultimately, U.S. trade policy could backfire, threatening jobs, curbing growth, cutting U.S. R D investments and compromising the competitiveness of U.S. firms.SEMI will begin planning next year’s Global Trade Seminar in the coming months. If you would like to be involved in the planning, or would simply like more information about the seminar, please contact Jay Chittooran, Public Policy Manager at SEMI, at [email protected].
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Last week, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), on instruction from President Trump, notified Congress that the administration intends to begin bilateral trade negotiations with Japan, the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom.SEMI stands strong for free trade and open markets, and roundly supports efforts to increase market access and tap into more foreign economies, especially economies like Japan and the EU, both of which are central to the semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry, which enables the $2 trillion electronics market, is built on global commerce. SEMI members rely on a vast network of supply chains that span the globe, bringing together components and tools made all around the world and assembled into a single sub-system that is then integrated into a larger tool used in the chipmaking process.These free trade agreements will reduce tariffs, which will result in cost savings and productivity gains, and allow SEMI members to expand and grow. But the benefits of modern free trade agreements extend well beyond tariff reduction. Indeed, these trade deals will establish and enhance global trade rules that enable companies to innovate and compete fairly on a level playing field. Trade agreements strengthen certainty and further business continuity.While the exact nature and negotiation timelines for the talks remain unclear, SEMI will engage the administration, urging it to maintain high standards in these agreements, such as: Maintain strong respect for intellectual property and trade secrets through robust safeguards and significant penalties for violators Remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers on semiconductor products as well as products that depend on semiconductors Simplify and harmonize the customs and trade facilitation processes Combat any attempts of forced technology transfer Prevent use of data localization measures and enable the free flow of cross-border data flows End discriminatory and/or burdensome regulatory practices Ensure standards in all forms are market-oriented Create rules for state-owned enterprises to ensure fair and non-discriminatory treatment of all companies According to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the U.S. law that guides trade votes in Congress, negotiations with each country can only begin 90 days after last week’s notification. During that period, there will be intensive consultation with Congress and stakeholders. This means, at the earliest, talks can start on January 14, 2019. (Bear in mind that discussions with the UK can only begin in earnest once the UK has formally left the European Union on March 29, 2019.)The Trump administration’s announcement comes after the U.S. imposed or threatened tariffs on imports on all trading partners, including the EU and China. All told, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on more than $300 billion worth of goods. SEMI has weighed in on the detrimental nature of tariffs, arguing that tariffs on China will ultimately do nothing to address the concerns with China’s trade practices. This sledgehammer approach will introduce significant uncertainty, impose greater costs, and potentially lead to a trade war, ultimately undercutting the ability of semiconductor companies to sell overseas, stifling innovation and curbing U.S. technological leadership.Elsewhere, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the multilateral trade deal that links 11 Asia-Pacific economies, is well on its way to taking force. Canada will be taking its final steps to ratify the deal, joining Mexico, Japan and Singapore. The deal, formerly known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, should take effect by the first half of 2019.SEMI will continue tracking ongoing trade developments. Any SEMI members with questions should contact Jay Chittooran, Public Policy Manager at SEMI, at [email protected].
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Tensions between the U.S. and China have reached fever pitch as the Trump administration imposed higher tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods last Monday, adding to the $50 billion in goods hit with higher duties earlier this year. Bloomberg News reported that “the combined $250 billion in products facing levies is almost half the value of imports from China last year.”China countered by meting out stiffer tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods, on top of the $50 billion already levied, and canceling planned trade negotiations with the Trump administration.Days before the sharp escalation of the trade conflict, SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha joined SEMI China president Lung Chu in hosting a closed-door round table with 16 senior semiconductor industry executives in Shanghai. The goal: An update from the China semiconductor sector on its needs as the chip industry braces to weather the conflict. Manocha and Chu then met with influential China media outlets including Semiconductor Manufacturing, China Integrated Circuit, Silicon Semiconductor and IC Café to reiterate SEMI’s position on trade.“The basic principles of SEMI are free and fair trade, open markets, cooperation for mutual benefit, and protection of intellectual property rights,” Manocha told the reporters. “Tariffs and trade frictions are bound to harm the industry’s development.”Manocha highlighted efforts over the past few months by the SEMI advocacy team to educate U.S. policymakers on the impact of tariffs on the development of the semiconductor industry. Last month, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) held a hearing in Washington, D.C. to solicit public comment on then-proposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to the U.S. Testifying on behalf of the semiconductor industry, SEMI stressed that tariffs on more than 100 tariff lines covering items critical to semiconductor manufacturing “will harm companies in the semiconductor supply chain by increasing business costs, introducing uncertainty, and stifling innovation.” SEMI had testified twice before this year – the first time in May, opposing levies on $34 billion in Chinese goods, and the second in July to speak out against higher duties on $16 billion worth of Chinese products.SEMI China president Lung Chu made clear the consensus of China’s semiconductor sector: The trade war will profoundly impact the global semiconductor industry. He also stressed that SEMI, as a global industry organization linking the global electronic semiconductor industry chain, will continue to promote win-win cooperation between the U.S. and China.Manocha reaffirmed SEMI’s longstanding commitment to promote cooperation among nations and policies that foster industry growth.“For the growth of the semiconductor industry, SEMI is focused on four important factors, and we call them the 4 T’s, namely Tax, Technology, Talent, Trade,” Manocha told the media. “All are indispensable for the development of the industry.” SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha and SEMI China president Lung Chu host press conference in Shanghai.Because the semiconductor industry is international, with key features spread across a number of regions, cross-border cooperation is an eternal theme, Chu told the gathering. To maintain the vitality of China's semiconductor industry, the region must deepen its integration with the international semiconductor ecosphere. He acknowledged that there will be no quick answers to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China but that SEMI would continue to press ahead in efforts to help improve relations. Despite the conflict, the industry remains optimistic about the growth of China’s semiconductor industry, he said."However, we need to face up to the fact that there is still a certain gap between the domestic semiconductor industry and that of international advanced level,” Lu said. “Therefore, international cooperation is the key to industry growth."Of the four cornerstones of the semiconductor industry – design, manufacturing, testing and equipment materials – China in recent years has narrowed the gap with its international counterparts in testing capabilities, Chu said. For China’s semiconductor industry to flower, the region must build strengths in design, manufacturing and materials too.“The semiconductor industry needs long-term investment, persistence and patience, and also needs win-win cooperation, continuous innovation and product applications across the entire industry,” Chu said. “Money is not the only incentive.”Manocha emphasized the theme of international cooperation, with the global semiconductor industry working in harmony.“The global semiconductor industry chain is inseparable, and each region has its own advantages,” Manocha said. “So, we will continue to work hard to create a win-win, inclusive global industrial atmosphere.”For its part, SEMI China is focused on becoming the best partner for China to realize its semiconductor dream by continuing to provide services that encourage international cooperation. That role will grow in importance with SEMI’s expansion into application areas such as smart manufacturing, smart transportation, smart data and smart automotive – all requiring tighter integration of the electronics industry supply chain.Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.
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