IHS Markit

The microelectronics industry entered 2020 with high hopes after a mixed 2019 that saw global semiconductor revenue fall 11 percent while innovators continued to drive impressive advances in 5G, IoT, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other leading-edge technologies. Equipment sales were rebounding as the industry started to regain momentum. And then COVID-19 sent disruptions rippling throughout the global supply chain. Semiconductor manufacturing facilities scaled back operations. Parts shortages became a problem. Logistical challenges emerged. And, all the while, many workers retreated to their homes under lockdown.The virus forced the industry, en masse, to pivot like never before to ride out the pandemic. This is the most challenging situation that I have experienced in my nearly 40-year career. All of us in the microelectronics industry have dedicated ourselves to rise to the occasion and help others. Among our efforts, we are providing resources to support SEMI members and the industry. Today, we can take heart that manufacturing firms in China are restoring normal operations. SEMI hosted a webinar on March 26 where our colleagues at McKinsey Company shared insights on China as it begins its recovery as well as the broader impact of the pandemic on the microelectronics manufacturing and design supply chain. You can read about McKinsey’s insights in a recent SEMI blog.In my closing remarks at last month’s webinar, I asked the industry to donate masks, gloves and additional personal protective equipment (PPE) to support our overwhelmed healthcare systems. The battle against the virus rages on around the globe. These donations will help people, businesses and whole economies to heal and recover.I am proud of how generously the microelectronics industry has donated these supplies that, in ordinary times, contribute to the meticulously controlled environments of our industry’s manufacturing facilities, but today can help save lives and bring the pandemic to heel. I ask companies across the supply chain to please explore how you can contribute to this effort. Donation information is available on our Coronavirus Resources webpage under Medical Needs Supply Matching Sites. It’s great to see SEMI members help combat COVID-19, and we are highlighting some of their efforts in news stories and blogs on our Coronavirus News and Blog webpage. We encourage you to submit your story.We know our members are hungry for more COVID-19 insights to help guide their way as uncertainty persists. SEMI is offering a follow-up webinar with McKinsey Company – The Way Forward from COVID-19 – on Thursday, April 23rd from 7:30am to 8:45am Pacific Time. Then, on Thursday, April 30th from 8:30am to 10:30am Pacific Time, the SEMI Americas team will host the virtual forum Semiconductor Outlook—Navigating through Turbulent Times. Bank of America Merrill Lynch will provide an update on semiconductor stocks, IHS Markit a market outlook, and VLSI Research the latest on COVID-19’s impact on the semiconductor industry. The goal of these events is to help you, our members, make more informed business decisions. We look forward to your participation and ask that you please submit questions so that the events are more meaningful for you.We have also added more resources to our SEMI Responds webpage, which lists best practices for company policies, public communications and telecommuting from our Environment, Health and Safety (EHS) and Information Technology Leadership (ITL) groups. The page now includes member survey insights from our Fab Owners Alliance (FOA) and Electronic Materials Group (EMG) on COVID-19 impacts to those communities, along with steps members are taking to maintain business continuity and ensure that their facilities remain safe. A big thanks to members of these groups for participating and sharing learnings with the industry at large. Sustaining operations across the industry has been the focus of work by the SEMI Global Advocacy team the past few weeks. It has continued to lobby for the microelectronics industry to be classified as an essential business in the United States and for similar designations in other countries. Those efforts included a SEMI Americas request for the government of Mexico to designate the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain an essential business, consistent with U.S. guidelines, to help avoid disruptions to the North American semiconductor industry. SEMI Europe sent 22 letters to officials across the continent, three of them to the European Commission, urging governments to allow continuous operations of the semiconductor industry. SEMI Japan has been closely engaged with the central government and sent letters to many Japanese prefectures stressing the critical importance of continuing operations.I am truly proud of how the SEMI team has stepped up around the globe to proactively communicate and support our members with relevant information and best practices related to the pandemic. The outcome of our letters to governments around the globe to seek essential business status has generally been very positive.SEMI also continues to oppose unilateral U.S. export controls that will compromise the ability of the U.S. to export semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, as highlighted in a recent Reuters article.SEMI advocacy efforts epitomize our overarching approach to the pandemic: We remain squarely focused on supporting our members during these turbulent times while continuing to lay the groundwork for the industry’s prosperity. Ajit Manocha is President and CEO of SEMI.

We are now in the recovery phase of the current business cycle with SEMI equipment already in a growth mode. However significant economic and geopolitical concerns persist.

The semiconductor industry is in the final throes of its most recent cyclical downturn, but clear demand drivers on the horizon, such as 5G and autonomous driving, have created a decidedly upbeat mood at SEMI’s Strategic Materials Conference, held this week in San Jose, California. Increased connectivity in daily lives will not only dramatically boost semiconductor volumes, but the physical challenges of improving chip performance have positioned materials as the key enabling technology of the fourth industrial revolution – creating opportunities for suppliers to capture significant value. Most speakers were quick to underscore the importance of materials innovation. According to Dave Anderson, president of SEMI Americas, “We are entering the era of the material scientist,” and the role of materials in semiconductor manufacturing “has never been more important.” Carlos Diaz, senior director, corporate research at foundry major TSMC, said that the future “belongs to new materials and processes,” while Bertrand Loy, president and CEO, Entegris, told attendees the world is on the brink of the fourth industrial revolution, where technology will be fusing “physical, digital, and biological worlds and transforming our collective lives.” Len Jelinek, senior director/semiconductor manufacturing, IHS Markit, noted that 2019 has been a challenging year for semiconductor revenue – expectations are for a 12.5% decline YOY – but said he is not forecasting “doom and gloom” because of positive consumer demand trends beyond 2019. These include the rollout of 5G networks, internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and autonomous vehicles. Jelinek emphasized the foundational impact of 5G in particular. “Don’t think of 5G’s impact only in terms of handsets. It’s an enabling technology that will have broad-based impact” and will be key to creating a sustainable recovery in semiconductor demand in the second half of 2020. The current semiconductor downturn – the industry’s 10th – was initiated by an imbalance in memory supply and demand, and the lack of resolution of trade issues between China and the US is threatening to amplify volatility. Smartphones, the number-one application for semiconductors, are currently challenged by extended replacement cycles, and total handset shipments are set for its second year of decline. “We, as consumers, are waiting for revolutionary features such as 5G speeds, biometrics, foldable handsets and AI capabilities,” Jelinek says. Recent iterations have been merely evolutionary, and premium handset costs have escalated, he adds. Automotive electronics, which account for about 10% of global semiconductor demand, will eke out slight growth in 2019, Jelinek says. “Long-term semi component revenue growth within the Auto segment will focus on increasing content within cars supporting advanced safety features.” During his session, Duncan Meldrum, chief economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, addressed recent threats of a recession. “Underlying economic fundamentals are strong, but we are at that point in the business cycle where it doesn’t take much to knock the economy into recession,” he says. “I am telling people to have a contingency plan in place.” Nevertheless, Meldrum laid out reasons for optimism. Most economies have plenty of jobs, and consumers have been confident despite negative headlines. “For the average person, a tariff trade war gets to be noise. If they don’t see immediate impact, they tend to eventually discount all the headline noise. The same goes for Washington politics or Brexit.” There are no serious signs of inflation pressures in the US or other major economies, he adds. Beyond the cycleLonger-term, explosive growth in connected devices will create a runway for semiconductor volume growth. According to SEMI, over 30 billion devices are currently connected and another 200 million are added daily. By 2020, the number of connected devices will reach 1 trillion. “The growth profile for industry will be very strong and a multiplicity of drivers will bring more stability to this industry,” Loy adds. “But before this future becomes a reality we have a lot of work to do.” Current chips need to be faster and cheaper. “Physical scaling is not going to get us there, we’ve hit those limits,” Loy adds. “We have to look at new architectures and materials.” Loy called on the materials sector to need to “up our game” and spend more on R D. “Customers want us to make our products in very tight process window and ship to control. They want extreme purity for everything. It’s a long list of to-dos and it’s going to cost us a lot,” he adds. Among the needed innovations are photoresist hard masks to hand high aspect ratio, new etch chemistries for better rates and higher selectivity, and new cleaning chemistries for high aspect ratio geometry with high selectivity.Loy also identified contamination control as a key challenge for material suppliers. “When you think about purity and contaminants, you need to think about size, concentration levels, and classes. To optimize yields and lower wafer defectivity, our customers expect materials to be very pure and exhibit low variability.” The payoff for customers is large; a 1% yield improvement can mean $150 million in annual net profit for a leading-edge logic fab, Loy says. For a 3D NAND fab, that figure can be around $110 million per year. But these requirements are getting exponentially tighter. From 28 to 7 nm, the metal impurity concentration limit became 1,000 times lower, Loy notes. Contamination control is even more vital when the potential impacts of latent defects – which are difficult to detect in a fab and during electrical testing – are considered, particularly in emerging applications like autonomous driving, Loy says. “The cost of yield loss is expensive, but failure in a critical optical sensor of a car could be significantly greater, in terms of recalls or even human loss of life.” To meet tightening purity requirements, Loy recommends throwing out traditional thinking about contamination control. “In the past, we could get away with simple filtrations,” he says. “That’s no longer going to work. We need to collectively, up and down the supply chain, migrate to better filtration and purification and also rethink chemical delivery systems and packaging solutions to preserve the integrity of our products.”Metrology will also be key, but analytical capability is lagging. “We all like to believe that we cannot control what we cannot see, but that is exactly what we have to do.” The need for innovation is also being felt at the wafer level. Kevin Light, director, Applications Technology Americas at Siltronic Corp., said that as semiconductor markets become more diversified, silicon suppliers must recognize the distinct challenges each segment faces. Better wafer properties are required for next-generation chips, he adds. “Excessive wafer geometry can cause errors during lithography, especially when printing even smaller linewidths,” he says. The end result can be defocus and placement errors. When dealing with “More than Moore” architectures, wafer requirements are driven by other factors than defects. “More than Moore applications do not benefit from scaling, but instead drive capabilities of separate silicon parameters,” Light says. “In some cases you need high doping, in others the doping needs to be precise.” Czochralski crystal growth is suitable for high dopant levels, but the concentrations vary at the top and bottom of the ingot. Float Zone crystals avoid oxygen incorporation and provide consistent doping. These variations make Czochralski process suitable for PowerMOS, and Float Zone appropriate for IGBT. Compound semiconductor layers, such as GaN-on-Si, offer potential advantages owing to higher switching speeds and critical breakdown fields, he adds. “Silicon wafer requirements are diversifying as the devices themselves find increasing use outside of traditional logic,” Light adds. “Moore’s law is alive and next-gen computing will continue to push the limits of flatness and cleanliness. Meanwhile, demands of energy efficiency, electrification, IoT, and 5G drive wafer requirements other than scaling, including extremely high doped or ultra-low oxygen growing techniques, high lifetimes, and substrates engineered for compounds semiconductors.” Driverless futureAutonomous driving was a frequent discussion topic at SMC. Although IHS Markit does not see it really rolling out until past 2025, the disruption to the auto industry’s status quo is very much being felt now. Dragos Maciuca, executive technical director, Palo Alto Research and Innovation Center at Ford Motor Company, says cars of the future will be autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared. “The biggest transformation will be the shift from mechanical hardware to software,” he says. “Currently [a car] is a mechanical thing that has some electronics. Going forward, it will be a software-driven system that happens to control some mechanical elements.” The transition is already way under way, so much so that autonomous technology developed for the automotive industry is already being spun off into other sectors, such as mining and agriculture, and the auto industry’s competitive landscape is already seeing changes. OEMs and carmakers are entering the market from the traditional auto industry side, while companies such as Google are participating from the software side. “Others, like Uber and Lyft, are coming in from the business plan point of view to eliminate drivers and improve margins,” Maciuca adds. Autonomous driving will require numerous innovations, many of which will require new electronic materials and production processes. “We need weight savings, space savings, and advanced architecture,” Maciuca says. “We also need customization to print circuits as the vehicle comes down the line.” The tech community is proving up to the task. For LIDAR, there were just two technologies available a few years ago, he adds. The impact on chipmakers is also already being felt. “The automotive industry used to buy older chips,” Maciuca says. “Now we are moving to a stage where we need the very first chips at the most advanced node. And we are using them for safety-critical operations. If an AI chip that is supposed to detect a human fails, the consequences can be very severe.”Rebecca Coons is a senior editor at Chemical Week. Republished with permission from Chemical Week.The SEMI Electronic Materials Group (SEMI EMG) is the backbone of the Strategic Materials Conference. EMG is a technology community representing SEMI member companies that provide substrates, polymers, metals, organic and inorganic materials, chemicals, and gases that are developed or in use for the manufacturing of electronics. The group is open to SEMI Members involved in materials manufacture, distribution, and services throughout the microelectronics industry. For more details, please visit the website.

Flexible hybrid electronics (FHE) is innovation and modern technology at their best, giving rise to lighter, more malleable sensors that better conform to the human body while breeding new applications across a number of markets. For the semiconductor industry, FHE technology is enabling the development of a new generation of chips with the high performance, light weight, scalability, softness and flexibility usually seen in printed electronics. The technology is a boon to chipmakers, giving them novel ways to innovate for the Internet of Things (IoT) market.“The global printed electronics market is expected to garner 14.9% GAGR from 2018 to 2023,” said Stanley Wong, Director of Asia Business Development, Brewer Science, said in his presentation at FLEX Taiwan 2019 in late May. Representatives from industry, government, academia and research institutions gathered at the event in Taipei to explore flexible electronics innovation and growth opportunities.One shining star of FHE innovation is the foldable smartphone. So bright is the future of the bendable devices that not even recent trade tensions between the United States and China have dimmed prospects for the fledgling industry.“While the US-China trade war might slow down shipments of Huawei’s phones, the industry remains bullish on foldable phones,” said Stacy Wu, Principal Analyst at IHS Markit. “When the first generation of flexible AMOLED displays was launched in 2016, the rolling radius was 3mm and it could be folded 200,000 times.”For foldable phones, the 200,000 mark was a major milestone – the industry’s consensus standard for foldable phone display reliability. The industry reasoned that phones capable of being folded and unfolded 200,000 times without distorting color or images or the display itself cracking was a safe bet for consumer adoption. Earlier this year, both Samsung and Huawei announced foldable phones using the thin-film-display technology, ushering in the era of mass-market availability of the devices. Steve Chiu, Division Director for Electronics, IC package, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), believes that breakthroughs in the next generation of flexible AMOLED technology will allow thin films to be folded 100,000 times with a rolling radius up to 30mm and electric resistivity of less than 10 percent. The rolling radius of 30mm, 10 times higher than today’s phones, will give foldables a higher bending radius, while the lower electric resistivity will help maintain the brightness of the AMOLED panel after tens of thousands usages and extend the service life of foldable smartphones.The biggest challenge facing the foldable phone industry remains developing new materials that are flexible yet durable, stressed Francesco Lemmi, Business Development Director, Flexible Display, at DuPont. Today, the prevailing practice is to layer polyimide (PI) and hard coating on the display module. These stacked protective films replace traditional glass panels but present technical challenges related to impact resistance and the durability of the display as it is folded and unfolded over time.Smart clothing market is another hot market, with 33 percent global growth annually and revenue expected to reach US$ 3.26 billion in 2026. Yet for all the promise of smart clothing, reliability and accuracy remain a big challenge chiefly due to a lack of industry standards. Another gap is the unanswered question of whether consumers will embrace light and energy-efficient products.FLEX Taiwan 2019 speaker Satoshi Maeda of Toyobo is confident they will, pointing out that in the future consumers will enjoy a wide selection of comfortable smart clothing products and applications. The industry is still working to better understand how to develop human-machine interfaces, the essential seam between the human body (the outer layer of skin) and electronics, said Dr. Reinhold H. Dauskardt of Stanford University. Still, he sees great promise in an innovative somatosensory communications platform involving human skin. Human-computer interactions have historically been defined by human touch and vision (for example, typing at a computer keyboard and checking our monitor for the accuracy of our inputs). Dauskardt believes that, in the future, electrical impulses from the skin (conductance) will interact with signals from electronic devices to establish a more intimate human-machine interface that could be adapted one day to extend the visual and auditory abilities of humans.David M. Yeung, co-founder and CEO of Lionrock Batteries, pointed to another challenge in wearables: battery size. Today, large and heavy batteries account for 50 percent to 70 percent of the space in wearable devices, making many of the products too cumbersome to wear. Nanofiber lithium-ion batteries now under development can be as small as ultra-thin 2mm with a rolling radius of up to 20mm in radius and support for high electrical currents, significantly lightening their weight and improving comfort.Nardev Ramanathan, Lead Analyst, Digital Health and Wellness at Lux Research, predicts that, of all flexible electronics products, smart watches will win the largest market share and with the fastest rate of adoption. The devices will get a boost when they shrink as flexible batteries are integrated with the bands. The next wave of smart wearables will feature devices for exercise or medical monitoring. Already, FHE materials have led to advances in medical devices. One example is that smaller hearing aids are now possible thanks to flexible electronics and dressings used to promote skin regeneration, reduce wrinkles and remove scars.Gillian Ewers, VP Marketing at PragmatIC, sees fertile ground for FHE applications in IoT solutions. As FHE manufacturing costs drop, she believes IoT technologies will significantly deepen their penetration into a broad range of industries. For example, the number of electronic tags used in convenience stores worldwide will exceed 100 billion in 2025. Thinner than human hair and more durable than traditional wafers, these tags are expected to spawn a host of new business opportunities. FLEX Taiwan attracted more than 270 attendees from more than 30 fields including smart healthcare, e-paper, displays, system integration, automotive electronics, textiles, wearables, and avionics. On the first day of the event, industry, academia and research center representatives from the United States, Japan, China, Singapore and Taiwan gathered to discuss common goals on a range of FHE-related issues and deepen cross-regional cooperation. Like the FHE industry itself, SEMI-FlexTech remains focused on the future by strengthening cross-border cooperation to help manufacturers find killer applications and test profit-making models. For Taiwanese companies, the event will continue to provide insights on market trends, equipment, materials, advanced manufacturing technologies, product applications and new business opportunities, helping the organizations hone their competitive edge in the global market.Emmy Yi is a marketing specialist at SEMI Taiwan.

The 3D optical sensing market is once again surging – and it’s all thanks to Apple. What will we see in the next wave of end products enhanced by this technology, how will other market segments approach – and eventually use – 3D optical sensing, and which suppliers stand to gain the most from this very vital technology?Although 3D sensing, facial recognition and optical authentication systems have become only recently hot topics in the consumer electronics market, these mechanisms first made their appearance nearly a decade ago in November 2010. Following that debut, Microsoft soon launched the Kinect system in its Xbox 360 gaming console, marking a milestone as significant as Nintendo’s launch of its Nintendo Wii remote controller in 2010, which catapulted MEMS motion sensors into the high-volume consumer market.The Kinect system used a triangulation-based camera that Israeli developer PrimeSense Ltd. created and then licensed to Microsoft; Apple liked the technology so much that it acquired PrimeSense in 2013. The first version of Kinect applied the Structured Light (SL) method, a depth-sensing principle featuring an infrared (IR) laser projecting dots onto the scene, with a monochrome CMOS sensor measuring the differences in the acquired pattern. The second version of Kinect used the Time-of-Flight (ToF) principle.Kinect for Xbox360 was not only a successful consumer product; it also sparked a new market, thanks to the relatively low cost of the 3D sensing solution. By using the same hardware for Xbox 360 as in its first version of Kinect, Microsoft allowed developers to design their pet projects in the Kinect environment. Adding hand gestures controls to a PC, creating a user-controlled virtual dynamic light (see Kimchi and Chips’ demo), and developing an inexpensive hologram generator (see “Princess Leia” video from the MIT Media Lab) are just a few examples of ecosystem developers and DIYers applying their creativity to Kinect.Apple Goes 3D with Face ID3D optical sensing has expanded from gaming consoles to the smartphone. In 2017 Apple presented its Face ID camera system for the iPhone X, which they launched to celebrate the 10-year anniversary of the iPhone. Face ID is the result of a longer term strategy for Apple, the byproduct of several company acquisitions to expand know-how in 3D sensing and augmented reality (AR)/virtual reality (VR). Between 2015 and 2018, Apple acquired the camera-module maker LinX (2015), the AR startup Vrvana and the imaging sensor firm InVisage Tech (both in 2017), and AR glasses’ designer Akonia Holographics (2018).For a company that has always innovated on its own terms, Apple’s idiosyncratic approach called for deployment of the Structured Light method combined with a ToF device. The result is an amalgamation that utilizes the best features of the two mechanisms, even if the combination is one that is expensive. Apple’s addition of a near-infrared illuminator to its ToF device enhances the system’s effectiveness under most light conditions while also improving the reliability of Face ID; the overall outcome is a more satisfying user experience. The ToF component, which STMicrolectronics supplies, makes use of so-called single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) receivers that can work with any target material and color, although a higher target illumination is required to obtain good accuracy.The other core components of the Face ID system are the Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL, from Lumentum) and a dot projector (from ams/Heptagon), assembled together in an optical package. Apple’s expensive but reliable approach explains the company’s inclusion of the Face ID system in its latest smartphone and tablet offerings – across the iPhone Xs, Xs Pro and Xr as well as in the latest iPad Pro models. Apple’s Face ID uses facial recognition for authentication on a range of iPhone and iPad Pro models. Image courtesy of Apple. Chinese Phone Makers Get into the GameMeanwhile, other mobile handset manufacturers are rumored to be working on Face ID-like systems or have already presented similar solutions, albeit through a variety of approaches. Some have chosen to use standard ToF devices while others have adopted an SL tactic. In many of these designs, which happen to target Android systems, OEMs generally include a fingerprint sensor as a fallback biometric option to their own nascent 3D facial recognition systems. The fingerprint sensor operates in either standalone mode or integrates into the display.Chinese handset maker Oppo, for instance, uses the SL method on its Find X model with algorithms coming from Megvii. Oppo claims its equivalent of Apple Face ID is faster. I have heard that Vivo has been working on a ToF camera since mid-2018, which it claims provides greater accuracy and security in end-applications such as secure payments and unlocking the phone.Chinese technology giant Huawei’s first 3D facial sensor appeared in its Mate 20 Pro flagship mobile phone. Aside from providing facial biometrics, the front-facing 3D sensor doubles as a 3D scanner, enabling users to digitize live objects that they can then manipulate in 3D AR applications. While still a novelty, the application highlights the use of 3D light sensors beyond that of biometrics. Xiaomi’s Mi Explorer Edition smartphone features a complex SL 3D module to enable 3D facial scanning although it looks like a clone of the Apple solution.Overall, the importance of facial recognition is no longer a matter of dispute, given that Apple’s rivals are now developing counterpart offerings of their own. Leaked code from the next revision of the Android operating system (revision Q), now under development by Google, has confirmed as much. Big and Getting BiggerIHS Markit forecasts that global revenue for ToF sensors in the 3D optical sensing market will surpass $500 million in 2019, up from $370 million last year. We also predict that the ToF market will grow in the coming years, spurred by combo solutions integrated with other light sensors in the same package. This will lead to a cheaper bill of materials (BOM) compared to the BOM for the SL method.At the same time, IHS Markit forecasts that the total market potential for light sensors will be worth much more, reaching $1.5 billion by year 2022. That’s because after a solid start with gaming consoles, 3D sensing has matured and consolidated in the massive smartphone arena.A segment of 3D Sensing’s future growth will come from other use cases and applications that are emerging outside consumer electronics and mobile. These include people-counting and -tracking in consumer and industrial applications, landing-aid and obstacle-avoidance functions in drones, and car-trunk (boot) opening with foot gestures, as well as gesture recognition and passenger detection in automotive. IHS Markit predicts steady growth for ToF and other light sensors. All told, the ToF approach appears to have a greater chance than the SL method in gaining a larger market share, leading to a cheaper and smaller BOM along with reduced integration costs in system assembly and calibration.Sometime this year, Apple and other handset OEMs may include a ToF-based 3D camera on the back of the iPhone to support more immersive gaming experiences and new AR/VR applications. This will further boost the 3D sensing market.To be sure, other mature technologies are available as valid alternatives to optical 3D sensing, including ultrasonic, mmWave and radar. These alternative technologies may gain part of the total market now commanded by 3D sensing, in use cases such as obstacle-avoidance or in-cabin presence detection.To learn about 3D Optical Sensing and Light Sensors from IHS Markit, go to: https://technology.ihs.com/606483/light-sensors-for-consumer-mobile-report-2018Manuel Tagliavini, a principal research analyst at IHS Markit, covers MEMS and sensors technology.Manuel Tagliavini joined IHS Markit in 2017. His key areas of focus are MEMS and sensors for mobile and consumer technologies. He is responsible for the tracking of sensors in handsets, tablets, laptops, and sports and fitness products.Prior to IHS Markit, he spent over 10 years with STMicroelectronics, working in various roles including product engineering, program management, and marketing and business development in the company's MEMS division.Tagliavini earned an Executive Master of Business Administration at SDA Bocconi School of Management and a Master of Science in Electronic Engineering from the University of Parma, both in Italy.Stay tuned with the technological advances and market trends in the MEMS Sensors ecosystem. Join MEMS Sensors Industry Group (MSIG), the SEMI technology community that connects the MEMS and sensors supply network in established and emerging markets, allowing members to grow and prosper.

Automobiles have become an even more important segment for MEMS and sensors as carmakers integrate more chips for propulsion, navigation, and control into their designs. However, these advanced functions and their crisp rate of adoption have fragmented the sourcing of automotive chips. IHS Markit’s Jérémie Bouchaud provided a closer look at and outlook for this key market at the MEMS and Sensors Executive Congress in late October in Napa. Following are key takeaways from his presentation.Autonomous and Electric/Hybrid Vehicles to Drive MEMS Market GrowthThe automotive market, approaching 100 million vehicles produced annually, is approaching $6 billion, dominated by MEMS and silicon magnetic sensors for chassis and safety, and powertrain applications. Going forward, the market growth will be in autonomous vehicles and electric/hybrid vehicles. Because the penetration of electric and hybrid vehicles is much higher than that of autonomous vehicles, it has a larger available market, particularly for sensors. Each of these markets has its own dynamics.For example, the electric and hybrid market has historically relied on a significant number of traditional, or non-semiconductor sensors, but new sensor technologies are vying to address multiple sensing needs. The most important limitation on demand of autonomous vehicles is the overall market penetration: IHS Markit expects autonomous vehicle production to reach 10 million at most by 2030.Production of Electric and Hybrid Automobiles Now Growing at Fast ClipProduction of electric and hybrid vehicles is in a rapid growth phase, and IHS Markit expects penetration of such vehicles to reach 50% of the automotive market by 2030, up from 3% in 2016. The core functions of charging and power inversion require, among other capabilities, current, temperature and position sensing. Historically, many of these functions have been handled by non-semiconductor devices, for example negative temperature coefficient (NTC) thermistors for temperature sensing, devices that appear to be strongly positioned. In other areas, semiconductor sensors are competing with traditional devices.For example, silicon magnetoresistive devices are going head-to-head with inductive devices for position and Hall effect sensing. Sensing requirements are also likely to evolve over time, particularly as battery systems become more reliable and robust. While some automakers are looking to sensors to monitor pressure or gas leaks from batteries, battery makers are more focused on maturing the systems and reducing the need for monitoring.Autonomous Vehicles Drive New Source of Demand for MEMS and SensorsThe movement towards automated driving has created a new source of demand for MEMS and sensors, with advanced driver assistance systems driving faster growth than the historical powertrain applications. Currently available vehicles are at Level 2 (partial automation), with multiple cameras and radars. Level 3 vehicles (conditional automation) are likely to enter the market next year, adding driver monitoring cameras, LIDAR systems and, potentially, microbolometers or other night-vision systems. Level 4 and 5 (high and full automation, respectively) will add vehicle-to-vehicle communications and other systems, but are not likely to be widely available for several years.The autonomous vehicle market, while smaller overall compared to electric/hybrid vehicles, provides a more attractive opportunity for MEMS devices, particularly in LIDAR systems. LIDAR and other sensing/surveying systems are at the heart of autonomous vehicles, and MEMS devices are in demand for the critical beam-steering function. However, demand for image and other sensors will accelerate as the higher levels of autonomy are rolled out.Automotive Drives Extremely Diverse Set of Applications for MEMS and Sensor MakersThe automotive market presents an extremely diverse set of applications for MEMS and sensor makers. Some companies have developed broad product portfolios and compete in multiple applications. For example, TDK offers NTC thermistors as well as MEMS and silicon-based sensors. Semiconductor companies such as Infineon are competing in MEMS and with silicon-based sensors such as magnetoresitive and Hall effect.The growth in demand for image and radar sensors used in ADAS, as well as magnetoresistive and Hall sensors in EVs, means that the center of gravity in automotive markets is likely to shift from MEMS over the next several years – a fundamental change, Bouchaud cautioned, that will put automotive sensor suppliers focusing solely on MEMS at risk.Paul Semenza is a consultant in SEMI Industry Research and Statistics.

On June 1st, 2018, Toshiba sold Toshiba Memory, Toshiba’s memory business, to an investment group led by Bain Capital. Toshiba Memory was then owned by a consortium of American, Japanese and Korean companies.After the long and tough negotiations, Toshiba Memory moved forward at full throttle, holding a groundbreaking ceremony for its new 3D NAND fab (100,000 WPM) in Kitakami in July and, in September, celebrating the opening of Fab 6 Phase 1 (50,000 WPM). To be sure, NAND memory is a key feature of Japan’s semiconductor industry. But the sector’s reach extends well beyond memory with its rich and versatile product portfolio nourished by active investment.Born in the early 1950s, Japan’s semiconductor industry today boasts more than 30 companies with fabs. Many feature 200mm and smaller wafer lines with legacy technologies, form factors that account for the bulk of the world’s semiconductors and are the oxygen of Japan’s chip industry. Clearly, the world is not built only with the state-of-art 7nm processed chips on the latest generation 300mm lines. Japanese chipmakers are flourishing.Automotive SemiconductorsRenesas Electronics remains a giant in microcontrollers (MCU) and system on chip (SoC) devices for automotive applications. According to IHS Markit, Renesas automotive semiconductor revenue in 2017 reached $3.6 billion while Inineon Technologies and NXP Semiconductors revenues were $3.4 billion and $3.7 billion, respectively. The three companies dominate the global automotive MCU global market. The company recently acquired Integrated Device Technology (IDT), a U.S. fabless company specializing in analog/mixed signal chips, to strengthen its automotive semiconductor portfolio. Renesas operates four volume production fabs, according to the latest World Fab Forecast from SEMI. Renesas’s microcontrollers for automotive applications (Source: Renesas Electronics) Power SemiconductorsWith power semiconductors the chips of choice for boosting the efficiency and performance of motors and batteries used in equipment, demand for the devices is rapidly growing, especially for automotive applications. Power semiconductor companies in Japan are legion and include Denso, Fuji Electric, Fujitsu Semiconductor, Hitachi, Kyocera, Mitsubishi Electric, New Japan Radio, Origin Electric, Phenitec Semiconductor, Renesas, Rohm, Sanken Electric, Sansha Electric Manufacturing, Seiko NPC, Shindengen Electric Manufacturing, Sumitomo Electric Device Innovations, Toshiba and Toyota Industries. The companies account for 26% of global power semiconductor capacity and will spend $317 million for construction and equipping in 2018.CMOS SensorsSony dominates the CMOS image sensors market with 42% share in 2016, according to Yole Développment. To meet growing demand for high-end CMOS image sensors, Sony has acquired several legacy 300mm wafer fabs and retooled them for CMOS sensor manufacturing. What’s more, Sony’s May announcement of its mid-term corporate strategy includes a 1 trillion Japanese yen investment in CMOS image sensors targeted to automotive applications by March 2021.Sony’s 7.42 effective megapixel stacked CMOS image sensor for automotive cameras (Source: Sony Corporation) MEMSMEMS is perhaps the most wide-ranging device market: Every application requires different capabilities and functions. The latest World Fab Forecast report lists 17 MEMS companies in Japan, though three makers of fast-growing RF MEMS, typically known as surface acoustic wave (SAW) or bulk acoustic wave (BAW) filters, are coming to the attention of semiconductor manufacturers. All are familiar passive electronic components suppliers – Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden and TDK – and all acquired legacy semiconductor fabs to manufacture RF MEMS.Their high-performance radio wave filters make mobile phones usable around the world. Research companies like Yole expect the introduction of 5G cellular mobile communication systems to fuel another wave of growth of the RF MEMS market. Murata Manufacturing’s SAW filters for smart phones (source Murata Manufacturing) Japanese Supply Chain Meets All Different NeedsJapan’s semiconductor supply chain provides one third of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment and more than half of the industry’s materials. But Japanese suppliers also work with small and midsize makers of highly versatile chips critical to enabling the explosion of smart applications.Meet these versatile Japanese suppliers at SEMICON Japan to find solutions to your unique needs and help the world get smarter. Themed “Dreams Start Here,” SEMICON Japan 2018 reflects the promise of AI (artificial intelligence), Internet of Things (IoT) and Smart technologies. Featuring more than 750 exhibitors from around the world, the event is the gathering place to connect the people, technologies and business across the electronics manufacturing supply chain, from semiconductor manufacturing to autonomous cars, robotics and other smart applications. For more information about SEMICON Japan, visit www.semiconjapan.org.Yoichiro Ando is a marketing director at SEMI Japan.

Sensors are inextricably linked to the future requirements of partially and fully autonomous vehicles. From highly granular dead-reckoning subsystems that rely on industrial-strength gyroscopes for superior navigation to more intelligent and personalized cockpits featuring intuitive human machine interfaces (HMIs) and smart seats, new generations of partially and fully autonomous cars will use sensors to enable dramatically better customer experiences.Dead reckoning, or, where am I, exactly? Dead reckoning is the process of calculating one’s current position by using a previously determined position, and advancing that position based upon known speeds over a time slice. As a highly useful process, dead reckoning is the basis for inertial navigation systems in aerospace navigation and missile guidance, not to mention your smartphone.Today’s best-in-class MEMS gyroscopes can offer 30-50 cm resolution (this is the yaw rate drift) over a distance of 200 meters — a typical tunnel length where a GPS signal is lost. For semi-autonomous (L3) or autonomous (L4, L5), the locational accuracy is well below 10 centimeters; that’s an accuracy usually reserved for high-end industrial or aerospace gyroscopes with a raw bias instability ranging from 1°/h and down to 0.01°/h. These heavy-duty gyros command prices from $100s up to $1000s. Current performance levels of different gyroscopes by application and performance measure in terms of bias drift (IHS Markit). This poses an interesting potential opportunity for both industrial-performance MEMS-based gyroscope sensor-makers, such as Silicon Sensing Systems, Analog Devices, Murata, Epson Toyocom and TDK InvenSense, and for broader-based sensor component-makers such as Bosch, Panasonic, STMicroelectronics, and TDK (InvenSense and Tronics).While MEMS can master performance, size and low weight, cost remains the challenge. The fail-operational mode requirement for autonomous driving will accommodate higher prices, at least in the beginning, probably in the $100+ range at first, even for the relatively low volumes of self-driving cars anticipated by 2030. Nonetheless, automotive volumes are very attractive compared to industrial applications and offer a lucrative future market for dead-reckoning sensors.Your cockpit will get smarter Automakers are banking on the idea that people like to control their own physical environment. Interiors already feature force and pressure sensors that provide more personalized seating experiences and advanced two-stage airbags for improved safety. In some vehicles, automakers are using pairs of MEMS microphones for noise reduction and image or MEMS infrared sensors for detection of driver presence. Eventually, we might see gas sensors that monitor in-cabin CO2 levels, triggering a warning when they detect dangerous levels that could cause drowsiness. These smart sensors would then “tell” the driver to open the window or activate an air-scrubbing system in a more complex solution. While today’s CO2 sensors are still relatively expensive, we may see them designed-in as lower-cost versions come to market.Future cockpits will need to go beyond such concepts in the lead-up to fully automated driving. Seats could contain sensitive acceleration sensors that measure heart and respiration rates as well as body movement and activity. Other devices could monitor body humidity and temperature.We need look no further than Murata, a supplier initially targeting hospital beds with a MEMS accelerometer as a replacement for pulse oximeters. That same Murata accelerometer could be placed potentially in a car seat to detect heart rate. It’s not the only way to do this: another sensing approach for heart-rate measurement comprises millimeter wave radiation, a method that can even look through objects such as books and magazines.Augmenting sensor-based body monitoring, automotive designers will use cameras to fuse information such as gaze direction, rate of blinking and eye closure, head tilt, and seat data with data gathered by sensors to provide valuable information on the driver’s physical condition, awareness and even mood. Faurecia’s Active Wellness concept—unveiled at the 2016 Paris Motor Show—proves that this technology might be coming sooner than we think. Active Wellness collects and analyzes biological data and stores the driver’s behavior and preferences. This prototype provides data to predict driver comfort based on physical condition, time of day, and traveling conditions, as well as car operating modes: L3, L4 or L5. Other features such as event-triggered massage, seat ventilation and even changes in ambient lighting or audio environment are possible. Faurecia’s “cockpit of the future,” announced at CES 2018. (Faurecia) Meanwhile, there are other commercial expressions of more advanced HMI as well as plenty of prototypes. Visteon’s Horizon cockpit can use voice activation and hand gestures to open and adjust HVAC. Capacitive sensors are already widely used for touch applications, and touchless possibilities range from simple infrared diodes for proximity measurement to sophisticated 3D time-of-flight measurements for gesture control.Clearly, automotive designers will have a lot more freedom with HMI in the cabin space, providing a level of differentiation that manufacturers think customers will appreciate—and for which they will pay a premium.Managing sensor proliferationResearchers are investigating ways to solve the issue of high-functionality vehicles containing myriad sensing inputs, i.e., when we have so many sensing inputs, designers must address wiring complexity and unwanted harness weight. Faurecia, for example, is considering ways to convert wood, aluminum, fabric or plastic into smart surfaces that can be functionalized via touch-sensitive capacitive switches integrated into the surface. These smart surfaces could reduce the explosion of sensing inputs, thereby diminishing wiring complexity. With availability from 2020, Faurecia’s solutions are approaching the market soon.Beyond functionalized switches, flexible electronics and wireless power sources, and even energy harvesting (to mitigate power sources), could provide some answers. Indeed, recent research has shown that graphene-based Hall-effect devices can be embedded in large-area flexible Kapton films, and eventually integrated into panels. OEMs such as Jaguar Land Rover are interested in such approaches to address the downsides of electronics and sensor proliferation, especially in luxury vehicles. While smart surfaces would represent a big change in sensor packaging and a disruption in current semiconductor processes, they remain a long way from commercial introduction.By 2030 or thereabouts, fully autonomous cars that detect our mood, vital signs and activity level could well be available. Cabins could signal us to open the window if CO2 levels become dangerous. HVAC systems could increase seat ventilation or turn up the air conditioning (or the heat) based on our body temperature. Feeling too hot or too cold in the cabin could become a thing of the past, at least for the driver, whose comfort level is the most important! We could feasibly feel more comfortable in the car than in our office, our home or at the movies. Perhaps our car will become our office, our entertainment center and our home away from home as we take long road trips with the family, without a single passenger uttering, “Are we there yet?” Bio: Richard Dixon, Ph.D., is a senior principal analyst for MEMS research at IHS Markit and author of more than 50 MEMS-related consulting and market research studies. He is a renowned expert on automotive MEMS and magnetic sensors used in safety, powertrain and body applications. Along with supporting the overall activities of the MEMS and sensors group, his responsibilities include the development of databases that forecast the markets for more than 20 types of silicon-based sensors in more than 100 automotive applications. In addition, he has supported organizations with future scenarios for sensors in cars and has supported many custom projects for companies in the automotive supply chain.In his prior post at Wicht Technologie Consulting (WTC), Dixon was a senior MEMS analyst where he led research on physical sensors and was the co-author of the NEXUS Task Force Report for MEMS and Microsystems 2005-2009. He has also led commercialization and road-mapping activities on European Commission-funded technology projects, including detailed MEMS chip cost analysis studies.Dixon worked previously as a journalist in the compound semiconductor industry and has five years of experience as a technology transfer professional at RTI International, where he provided business and market intelligence for early-stage technologies.Dixon graduated from University of Greenwich with a degree in materials science and earned a doctorate from Surrey University in semiconductor characterization. He speaks English and German.For more information, visit https://technology.ihs.com/Categories/450486/mems-sensors. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Want to hear more from IHS Markit on MEMS and sensors devices and their applications? Top thinkers from IHS Markit will be speaking at upcoming SEMI events. Register today!Disruption in the authentication sensor market Manuel Tagliavini, Principal Analyst, MEMS Sensors, IHS Markit Autonomous and Electric Cars: What's in for Conventional MEMS SensorsJeremie Bouchaud, Director and Senior Principal, MEMS Sensors, IHS Markit

Emboldened by advances in self-driving and Internet of Vehicles (IoV) technologies, Taiwan’s microelectronics sector is investing heavily in manufacturing processes and equipment as engines of innovation and growth for autonomous driving, the world’s next market goldmine. But breaking into the self-driving vehicle industry can be a steep uphill climb. Semiconductor players hungry to secure their piece of the potentially massive market must know how to navigate the automotive industry’s unique ecosystem of suppliers, not to mention its lofty standards for safety and reliability.To explore opportunities and challenges in the automotive semiconductor market, SEMI recently organized Mobility Tech Talk – a gathering of experts from Strategy Analysis, Yole Développement, Renesas, X-FAB and IHS Markit who examined the evolution of sensors for autonomous cars, advanced driver-assisted system (ADAS) applications, and new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China. Nearly 200 participants exchanged in-depth, forward-looking insights and perspectives as the event helped forge stronger relations among various market segments. Here are four key takeaways from the conference. Lidar: The Hottest Sensing Technology for Smart AutomotiveLidar, mmWave radar, cameras and inertial measurement units (IMUs) are critical sensing devices for autonomous cars. With sensor and high-speed computing technologies maturing at their current pace, some 350,000 self-driving vehicles are expected to hit the road by 2027. But before a single autonomous vehicle takes to the roadways, self-driving technology must become expert at monitoring a vehicle’s environment.That’s where Lidar, the hottest of all sensing technologies and the key to the holy grail of safe self-driving, comes into the picture. Lidar’s versatility supports multiple essential functions such as mapping, object detection and object movement. The problem is that mass production is still impossible due to the technology's high costs. What’s more, technical issues must still be sorted out with solid-state lidar, mechanical lidar and MEMS. Both startups and traditional tier-1 semiconductor manufacturers are aggressively investing in related research and development in hopes of fulfilling lidar's promise and seizing the market opportunity. Smart Automotive Sets New Quality and Safety StandardsAs cars become smarter, so too must silicon. Chips must support vastly more data generated by in-vehicle connectivity, ADAS, electrification, autonomous driving and an array of other functions that rely on advanced automotive electronics components. With demand for smarter silicon surging, Taiwan semiconductor companies are turning to the automotive chip industry for expertise and serving as OEMs for major automakers.Quality and safety for automotive applications is paramount. In-vehicle semiconductors must meet strict requirements for vehicle control, robustness, liability, cost and quality management to meet the automotive specifications necessary to securing certifications. Smart silicon must also pass all AEC-Q liability standards promoted by North America automakers and score “zero defect” for the ISO/TS 16949 Automotive Quality Management System.China’s New Energy Vehicles To Fuel Semiconductor GrowthTo promote NEVs and reduce fuel consumption of cars with internal combustion engines (ICEs), late last year the Chinese government introduced the Measures for the Parallel Administration of the Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises. With China the world’s largest market for NEVs, the policy is forcing automakers in Japan, the U.S. and Europe to accelerate moves towards NEVs that, in turn, will fuel growth in the semiconductor and automotive battery industries. NEVs in China are expected to number 2 million by 2020 before more than doubling to 4.9 million by 2025. Today, most cars still run on ICEs as environmentally friendly motor drives are still under development. In unit shipments, motor drives are expected to surpass ICEs by 2025.Cross-field Collaboration is KeyThe rise of smarter, fully autonomous vehicles – a disruptive Car 2.0 – is unlikely to happen overnight. Rapid growth of the global automotive semiconductor market will continue, with safety and powertrain applications driving the strongest chip demand. Meanwhile, automakers are focusing more on innovations from startups and non-traditional suppliers, and some have even started to develop their own IP and solutions. These paradigm industry shifts are diversifying the automotive supply chain into a cross-domain collaborative network of suppliers, pushing the closed, one-way automotive supply chain into lesser relevance. In the near future, rivals and partners may become indistinguishable as traditional turf wars begin to wane. As ADAS and autonomous cars evolve, and the era of electric cars nears, automotive semiconductors are emerging as the engine of growth for the global semiconductor industry. The automotive semiconductor market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8 percent, reaching US$48.78 billion by 2022.For its part, the SEMI Smart Automotive special interest group connects professionals from the microelectronics and automotive industries. The group promotes the semiconductor industry's development of automotive technologies and cross-domain collaboration to help drive autonomous vehicle innovation.