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The 2025 SEMICON West Market Symposium brought together leading analysts and strategists to decode the powerful forces shaping the global semiconductor market. Building on last year’s focus on fabless growth and workforce initiatives, this year’s sessions centered on the rising influence of geopolitics, trade policy, and AI-driven investment. Experts from SEMI, Integrated Insights, Boston Consulting Group, Kearney, PwC, WSTS and TechSearch shared perspectives on how global shifts from tariffs to technology races are redefining supply chain resilience and regional competitiveness.On October 6 in Phoenix, Arizona, Clark Tseng, Senior Director of SEMI Market Intelligence, hosted the symposium and presented along with industry experts on the current trade environment from various angles. Discussions ranged from the effects of U.S. tariffs across the globe, to sector-specific considerations and market growth areas. US Trade Dynamics in Semiconductors As the geopolitical landscape in the U.S. becomes more complex, Iacob Koch-Weser, Associate Director, Global Trade Investment at Boston Consulting Group outlined the impact that tariffs are having on the U.S. industry. The average American tariff, he said, is higher than any time in the last 75 years. Although the semiconductor industry is less affected by high tariffs than other sectors, Koch-Weser noted that might change with the administration’s expanded Section 232 Tariff that imposes 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives on nearly all trading partners. To explain, he described four potential Section 232 tariff scenarios, underscoring limited Section 232 enforcement as the ideal approach.Tariffs may be deprioritized in favor of chips incentivesThere may be targeted carveouts for alliesThe administration may impose high tariffs with limited exceptionsThere may be a 100% tariff rate To cope with tariff uncertainty, Koch-Weser recommended that companies consider reshaping policies, mastering trade compliance, and reconfiguring supply chains if possible. He also shared four potential outcomes for the future of U.S. trade that could take effect within the next 18-24 months. The U.S. may run its own system while the rest of the world aligns to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.North American countries may form a stronghold, leaving all other countries to choose between the North American alliance and WTO standards.Countries may form new blocs and preferential agreements, creating multiple economic spheres worldwide.Global cooperation could break down, forcing countries to fend for themselves.With everything considered, he reinforced that the U.S. is still an attractive place for semiconductor investment. The current administration, he said, recognizes the importance of bringing advanced technologies back to the U.S. Navigating Uncertainty: AI-Driven Growth and the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing RenaissanceContinuing discussions on tariffs, SEMI’s Clark Tseng painted a picture of the current U.S. semiconductor industry. He divided his presentation into four key areas: near-term economic uncertainty, AI changes everything, semiconductor market equipment forecast, and material market outlook.Near-term economic uncertainty: U.S. tariff policies are contributing to inflationary pressures and altering global trade patterns, leading to cross-border uncertainty that is slowing investment. U.S. tariff revenue, he said, has expanded from $7 billion in January 2025 to $29.5 billion by August, forcing companies to sacrifice margins to compensate. AI changes everything: By 2030, Tseng noted that nearly half of the semiconductor industry’s capital expenditure will be driven by AI, pointing to sustained growth in AI-driven cloud infrastructure spending through 2028 forecasts. AI is also moving beyond data centers into edge computing and endpoint devices.Semiconductor market equipment forecast: Tseng reported that the outlook for the equipment market remains strong over the next three years. However, the biggest risk to the market is a potential slowdown in AI investment and adoption. Additionally, U.S. export controls and changes in regional supply chains present some challenges. Last year, China was the largest market for semiconductor equipment, but Tseng expects continued normalization amid broader market adjustments. Taiwan and South Korea experienced the strongest year-over-year growth, driven by demand for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Material market outlook: Silicon wafer shipments grew strongly in Q2 of 2025, but Tseng flagged this as unexpected and cited tariffs as a possible explanation. He noted the 300mm wafer segment is expected to grow 7% in 2025, while 200mm is projected to decline. The total wafer material market, he said, is also expected to grow by 6% this year. Additionally, wet chemicals experienced a 16% expansion in 2025, while silicon wafers, photolithography materials, and CMP materials are in recovery. Semiconductor Market – Status Outlook Tobias Pröttel (or Proettel), CEO of World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), reported that the industry’s rebound remains firmly on track, with the latest WSTS statistics confirming a 19% year-over-year increase in global semiconductor sales during the first half of 2025. Total revenue reached $346 billion over the period, supported by strong demand for AI-driven infrastructure and next-generation data centers. Based on this solid first-half performance, WSTS has raised its full-year 2025 forecast to $728 billion, representing 15% annual growth, and now expects the market to reach around $800 billion in 2026, keeping the industry on course toward the $1 trillion milestone before the decade’s end.Logic and Memory continue to lead the expansion, driven by GPUs, AI accelerators, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), while other product categories are showing steady recovery after the recent downturn. Pröttel noted that this growth is not confined to a single region: the Americas, China, and Asia Pacific are all posting double-digit gains, reflecting strong global momentum across the semiconductor value chain.Strategic Approaches to Semiconductors by Major Economies Following Pröttel, Kearney’s Vice President, PERLab, Sanjay Kumar outlined the semiconductor investment climates in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and India. South Korea is currently focused on maintaining its lead in memory, diversifying into logic, localizing its supply chain, developing advanced packaging capabilities, and investing in startups. Kumar also noted the Korean approach of offering loans, as opposed to the U.S. strategy of providing direct grants. In addition, Kumar said the Korean government plays an active role in how it wants its companies to grow, whereas the U.S. takes a more passive approach in this regard.Japan is also honing its leadership in key areas like materials and memory, and Kumar also pointed to the country’s efforts to build additional advanced packaging capacity. Japan, he said, aims to grow its industry though a mix of grants, loans, and tax credits. Among the country’s notable subsidies include a 50% subsidy for TSMC – its largest so far – as well as a $4 billion subsidy for Rapidus. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is critical for protecting its national security. As a region with limited land, power, and water, Kumar noted that Taiwan is currently focused on developing its talent base. Its government is offering tax credits for R D and equipment and up to a 50% cost share for R D projects. India, he said, has one of the most ambitious incentive programs in the world. Through its India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), the country offers a 50% federal subsidy, in addition to a 20-30% state subsidy in its quest to cover the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Kumar also spotlighted some of India’s successes – like the joint venture between Renesas, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, and Stars Microelectronics – to build a new OSAT facility.Adapting to New Policy and Navigating the U.S. Semiconductor Landscape – Insights from Taiwan Taiwan is a critical trade partner of the U.S., ranking fourth in total trade volume as of July 2025. With Taiwan’s stronghold on the U.S. chip ecosystem, Paul Poliakov, Senior Manager, International Tax Services, CPA at PwC Taiwan detailed both the bottlenecks and developments regarding Taiwan companies’ investments in the U.S. Among the investment bottlenecks he highlighted were higher costs of building facilities in the U.S., multiple layers of compliance requirements that may be intimidating for new market entrants, and complex visa and tax regulations. In addition, Section 232 investigations on semiconductors are ongoing, with several potential policy changes that could take effect. The pending United States-Taiwan Expedited Double-Tax Relief Act could help ease burdens, he said, but it has yet to pass in the U.S. Senate as of October 2025. If it passes, it will integrate benefits for Taiwanese individuals and businesses into the U.S. tax code, which could substantially benefit Taiwanese investment in the U.S., including manufacturing, services, distribution, and a wide variety of other industries. Furthermore, Poliakov suggested that businesses maintain flexibility in their investment strategies, engage with U.S. state and local governments that can offer investment incentives, and work with professionals to ensure regulatory compliance. Geopolitical Shifts in Advanced Packaging AssemblyIn the final presentation of the 2025 Market Symposium, Jan Vardaman, Founder and President of TechSearch International provided an overview of the current advanced packaging market. Although advanced packaging represents the highest growth area in the industry, Vardaman highlighted that packaging complexity is also soaring. R D, testing, and equipment support infrastructure, she said, are becoming more critical for meeting future packaging needs. Even though assembly is mostly done in Asia, new U.S.-based advanced packaging facilities from Amkor, TSMC, and others represent signs of change. Still, Vardaman noted that the U.S. has almost no capability to produce advanced IC substrates using build-up film, which are needed to support high density applications. In addition, she highlighted that building more silicon fabs on U.S. soil won’t solve its national security or supply chain concerns.For the U.S. to create a sustainable packaging ecosystem, Vardaman concluded that support of assembly facilities is crucial. Ultimately, businesses must be willing to pay more for U.S.-based packaging in favor of potential supply chain resilience and national security benefits. SEMI would like to thank all speakers, sponsors, and attendees for the success of this year’s Market Symposium. Explore the latest SEMI Market Intelligence reports, covering historical reporting, actionable foresight into emerging trends and technology investments to make confident, forward-looking decisions across the semiconductor and microelectronics value chain.Clark Tseng is Senior Director, Market Intelligence Team at SEMI. Nishita Rao is Director, Product Marketing at SEMI.

SEMI Korea Members Day 2025 in September featured a wealth of insights on semiconductor industry market and technology trends. As the two-year semiconductor inventory correction eases, Soo-Kyoum Kim, vice president at International Data Corporation (IDC), provided a market update during his address to the event’s 400 attendees at the Suwon Convention Center. He highlighted that the semiconductor market is showing signs of gradual recovery, with growth predicted for the second half of 2024 and into 2025. This growth, he said, is being fueled by rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high bandwidth memory (HBM). He projected that the total semiconductor market would grow to $779.8 billion in 2025, marking a 15.8% increase from this year's estimate of $673 billion. By next year, the memory market is expected to rise by 24%, largely driven by demand for AI. Although consumer demand will likely weaken due to a slowdown in the Chinese market, Kim shared that easing inventory adjustments will lead to a rebound during the second half of 2024, particularly in the growth of DRAM and NAND. Kim also predicted that the non-memory market, which reached $503.4 billion this year, will grow to $569.4 billion by 2025.Additionally, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for semiconductor network and data center sales is projected to be 26.4% and 16.2% by 2028, respectively. Kim explained that the strong demand for AI semiconductors in data centers and networks will help the semiconductor market maintain an 8% CAGR over the next five years, following the 2023 market adjustment.SEMI Korea Members Day HighlightsH.D. ChoThe AI-driven industrial transformation is demanding more advanced processes. To accommodate AI, the industry has shifted its focus away from miniaturization toward back-end processes. However, the challenges facing Korea's semiconductor industry have also intensified. Leading semiconductor research firms shared in-depth market forecasts and presented their latest semiconductor technology roadmaps, offering insights on business strategies for Korea’s semiconductor ecosystem.In his opening remarks, H.D. Cho, president of SEMI Korea, expressed deep gratitude for the exceptional resilience of SEMI Korea’s members, who continue to overcome roadblocks despite global uncertainties. He also highlighted the growth of SEMI Korea’s member companies, emphasizing their positive role in the global semiconductor supply chain, as well as SEMI's ongoing commitment in supporting their innovations.Call for Renewable Energy Policy Reform to Achieve Net ZeroBora Lee, leader of Solutions For Our Climate (SFOC), emphasized the strong correlation between the semiconductor industry and Korea's economic growth. Lee also outlined key factors contributing to the high costs that hinder renewable energy adoption in the semiconductor sector. "Korea's levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for renewable energy is about 2-3 times higher than the global average," she said. "The establishment of a policy council involving semiconductor companies is a crucial step in developing cooperative strategies to promote the use of renewable energy." In addition, Lee stressed that collaboration among suppliers, consumers, and policymakers is necessary to address these barriers and accelerate the transition to renewable energy within the industry. AI is Reshaping the Global Memory MarketPeter Lee of CITI Group shared that the convergence of cloud and edge computing is helping support new demands from AI, the metaverse, and automotive applications. As a result, this will increase long-term demand for memory. "The growing demand for AI is diversifying the memory market," Lee said. "This includes products such as HBM, LLW, LPDDR5T, and CXL, all of which are expected to see increased adoption according to AI computing requirements."As the need for parallel processing in AI training and inference tasks grows, Lee predicted the demand for HBM3 and DDR5 will significantly rise. HBM's share of total DRAM revenue is expected to increase dramatically – from 11% in 2023, to 30% by 2027. Expected Growth of the GaN Power Semiconductor MarketHo-Young Cha, a professor at Hongik University and co-founder and CTO of ChipsK, highlighted that the GaN power semiconductor market is expected to see continuous growth due to its advantages over silicon-based devices. The expansion of GaN technology applications in various industries, including consumer electronics, automotive, and telecommunications, he said, will drive additional growth."The GaN power semiconductor market will grow from $180 million in 2022 to $2.04 billion by 2028," said Cha. Growth Outlook for the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Market in 2025 Clark Tseng, director of the SEMI Market Intelligence Team, projected that the short-term outlook for the global semiconductor market will gradually recover due to improvements in end-demand for major electronic product sectors and surging demand for AI chips. "The equipment and materials markets are expected to show a slight improvement in 2024, with a strong recovery anticipated in 2025," Tseng stated. He noted that the equipment market would grow by approximately 3% in 2024 from $95 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow by 15% in 2025. Regarding wafer fab materials, the silicon wafer market is expected to decline from $14.1 billion in 2023 to $13.2 billion in 2024. However, recovery is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2024, with the market projected to reach a new record of $48 billion in 2025. For more insights on Korea and the industry, attend SEMICON Korea from February 19-21, 2025 at COEX Convention Exhibit Center. Visionaries and leaders will gather to discuss the latest developments, innovations, and business opportunities within the industry. As the region’s premier microelectronics event, SEMICON Korea 2025 is expected to host 70,000 attendees, 500 exhibitors, and 200 speakers. More event information, including registration details, will be available soon.Jaegwan Shim is Senior Specialist, Marketing at SEMI.

China’s semiconductor sector has exploded to become one of the largest in the world and match the region’s prominence as the biggest consumer of chips. From 2015 to 2020 alone, revenue of China’s integrated circuit (IC) industry expanded at a rapid clip of 20% CAGR (RMB) to $128 billion.

Themed Think Smart, Make Smart, SEMICON SEA 2021 will gather industry experts to highlight the latest developments, innovations and trends in segments of electronics including smart manufacturing, smart mobility, smart data, AI and 5G as technology continues to reshape the way people work and live. SEMICON SEA is the premier electronics manufacturing event in Southeast Asia. SEMICON SEA 2021 will offer traditional opportunities to generate new business opportunities at physical booths and as hybrid event will add a new online networking lounge, chat rooms on various key industry topics, and live broadcasts to enable business matching. Themed Think Smart, Make Smart, SEMICON SEA 2021 will gather industry experts to highlight the latest developments, innovations and trends in segments of electronics including smart manufacturing, smart mobility, smart data, AI and 5G as technology continues to reshape the way people work and live. SEMICON SEA is the premier electronics manufacturing event in Southeast Asia. Video Video 2

This year, SEMI ISS covered it all – from a high-level semiconductor market and global geopolitical overview down to the neuro morphic and quantum level. Here are key takeaways from the Day 1 keynote and Economic Trends and Market Perspectives presentations.In the opening keynote, Anne Kelleher from Intel pointed to the huge growth of data, with fabs collecting more than 5 billion sensor data points each day. The challenge, Kelleher noted, is to turn massive amounts of data into valuable information. Moore’s law is not dead. New models of computing benefit still from Moore’s law and advances in Si/CMOS technologies for conventional, deep learning, neuro morphic and quantum computing.With customers expecting continual improvements in applications, the question is whether the chip industry is moving fast enough to meet these expectations, Kelleher said. A broad supply chain, equipment and materials innovations, and attracting the “best of the best” college graduates to fuel innovation is key, she said.In the economic trends session, Nicholas Burns (ambassador ret.) from Harvard University pointed out that we will see a major shift in power. The U.S. will remain the major world power over the next 10 years, but we will see a major shift in power in the next coming decades as the gap with countries like China, Russia and India continues to narrow.Duncan Meldrum from Hilltop Economics said that we are passing the peak growth of economic cycle. He warns that a more likely outlook is that a global growth recession is developing. Although semiconductor MSI growth will see a noticeable slowdown in 2019 and 2020, the semiconductor industry is still healthy over the longer term.Bob Johnson from Gartner sees demand shifting from consumer to commercial applications with higher ROIs and budgets. AI, IoT and 5D are the major enablers. He sees structural changes in the semiconductor industry especially for memory but also for Moore’s law with increasing costs and fewer players.The DRAM markets shows volatility and NAND market may be negative in 2019 but non-memory are expected to accelerate mainly because of increasing content and some price hikes.Overall Gartner expects good long-term growth with a CAGR (2017 to 2022) of 5.1%, outpacing 2011 to 2016 CAGR of 2.6%. After a strong 2018 with 13.4% revenue, he forecasts a slower 2019 with 2.6% growth followed by a 8% growth in 2020 and negative growth rate in 2021.Andrea Lati of VLSI went “Back to fundamentals” in his presentation about the industry. VLSI sees a downside bias due to slowing global economy, tariffs, and trade wars. Future drivers are data economy, cloud, AI and automotive.As memory leads the 2019 slowdown, analog, power, logic and other sectors remain in positive territory. VLSI lowered its semiconductor equipment forecast for 2018 from 20% (Jan. 2018) to 14% (Dec. 2018) but increased its sales outlook from 8% to 15% in 2018. VLSI expects revenue to slow into the first half of 2019 but increase to over 4% in the second half of the year, resulting in total 2019 drop of 2.7%. Semiconductor equipment sales are expected to drop from 14% in 2018 to -10% in 2019.Michael Corbett of Linz Consulting, covering wafer fab materials in the years of 3D scaling, sees these as good times for the industry. His outlook for wafer fab materials is bullish based on strong MSI and because wafer fab materials suppliers are getting bigger because of M As.In the Market Perspective session, Sujeet Chand of Rockwell Automation pointed out that as more and more data is generated, the problem is how to get value of all the data collected. There is a need to create the right architecture for machine learning and AI and big data is increasingly being replaced by contextual/structured data. He expects Industry 4.0 to drive foundries to become smaller, more flexible and more productive.In the Technology and Manufacturing session, Aki Sekiguchi of TEL addressed process challenges in the age of co-optimization. The semiconductor industry continues to expand, driven by massive growth of interconnected devices, with heavy demand for processing power and storage. He expects an exponential increase of data from about 40ZB in 2018 to 50ZB in 2020 to 163 ZB in 2026.Major technologies such as DRAM, 3D NAND and logic are dealing with scaling challenges. The density of DRAM (Mb/chip) is plateauing according to 2015 to 2020 trend data, with DRAM is in need of EUV. Memory capacity demand is leading to increasing layers and higher aspect ratios that is concern for 3D NAND and mainly for plasma etch. With Logic already implementing 3D structures, it appears to be in a solid position. Buddy Nicoson of Micron talked about his 50 years in the industry and looked ahead to the next 50. The anchors – quality, cost, scale and speed – won’t change. It has been a great journey so far with unprecedented opportunities and challenges ahead of us. We are getting into a convergence (specialization, integration) and solution-based phase. We will see some inflection points in the coming years, with the best yet to come.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.

Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) service providers experienced strong growth in 2017, but will this growth continue? In the last few years, OSAT growth has been driven by shipments for packages found in smartphones, but this market is slowing. What will replace it? Growth in power devices is strong and electronic content in vehicles is increasing. Will OSATs participate in this growth? Many OSATs have plants dedicated to automotive package assembly and will see continued growth. Growing demand for connectivity everywhere, called IoT, is generating large amounts of data, creating the need for more servers and datacenters. The adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) across a broad range of applications is driving demand for high-performance packages, but will this assembly take place at the OSATs or foundries? In the third and fourth quarters of 2017, growth in cryptocurrency provided unanticipated revenue for a number of OSATs. Given that the most well-known crypto mining companies and the biggest mining pools are all based in China, several OSATs, including major Taiwanese and Chinese service providers, experienced revenue growth in 2017 directly attributed to the assembly of ASICs in flip chip scale packages (FC-CSPs) and GPUs in flip chip ball grid arrays (FC-BGAs) for the cryptocurrency market. However, the first and second quarter of this year has seen decreased demand for GPUs and ASICs for this application. The assembly of packages for cryptocurrency slowed considerably in the first half of the year and therefore can’t be counted on to add as much to the revenue base as in the previous year. Going into the latter half of the year, the demand for Crypto ASICs is expected to pick up as new generation of 7nm chips will drive new investment and replacement cycle while crypto-mining GPU will see a further decline. Three of the top 10 OSATs, Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology (JCET), Tianshui Huatian Technology (Huatian), and Tongfu Microelectronics (TFME), are based in China. China’s share of the top 10 OSATs’ revenue increased from slightly less than 23 percent in 2016 to more than 25 percent in 2017, and this trend is expected to continue. Crypto-related packaging and test business has certainly contributed a big portion of the share gain. Major OSATs such as TFME and Tianshui Huatian plan expansion in their plants and they expect to fill this added capacity in a broad range of packages. Huatian’s new Nanjing plant will include assembly for memory packages. TFME plans to set up a plant in Xiamen, Fujian Province to provide bumping, wafer level packaging, and system-in-packaging (SiP) services. Tracking the capabilities of OSATs is increasingly important. SEMI and TechSearch International have introduced a new Worldwide OSAT Manufacturing Site Database that provides listings of OSAT facility locations and package and test options in each factory. This database indicates the specific packages offered at each location. Finding plants that offer automotive qualified assembly is also possible with the database. Companies that offer bumping and wafer level packaging are identified. Over 120 companies and 300 facilities are tracked in this database covering both OSAT packaging and test facilities. For additional information about this informative database, please visit https://discover.semi.org/osat-database-registration.html E. Jan Vardaman is president of TechSearch International, Inc., and Clark Tseng is director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI.

SEMI Releases latest update to World Fab Forecast with adjusted semiconductor revenue consensus for second-half 2018 and 2019 Global semiconductor revenue in 2018 is now expected to reach $473.8 billion and clock a growth rate of 15 percent, a significant upward revision from the 7.5 percent expansion (to $442.9 billion) forecast at the start of the year by six research and investment forecasts tracked by SEMI Industry Research and Statistics (SEMI IR S). Data center growth will remain robust in the coming quarters, fueling demand for memory devices. In addition, cloud computing will continue to spur strong CPU, GPU, networking, ASIC, and DRAM and NAND demand through 2019, driving a consensus 3.63 percent year-to-year growth to reach the semiconductor revenue of $491 billion in 2019. Fab equipment spending (new and used) for 2018 is expected to increase by 14 percent to a record high of $63 billion, according to the last data from the SEMI World Fab Forecast, published by SEMI IR S. For 2019, fab equipment spending (new and used) is expected to increase 8 percent to another record of just under $68 billion. Memory continues to be the biggest swing factor in fab spending in 2018 and is expected to lead growth into 2020. 3D NAND will see the most capacity added in 2018 and 2019 with growth of 41 percent in 2018 and 27 percent in 2019, according to the SEMI World Fab Forecast. DRAM investment will see even stronger growth in 2018 and 2019 driven by new capacity addition as well as the continued technology shrink towards 1y/1z nm. For the first half of 2018, global spending for semiconductor fab equipment continues its growth momentum from 2017. Though we expect some softness in the second half of 2018, the outlook for 2019 remains robust with a fourth consecutive year of growth – the first such run since the 1990s. This prolonged growth cycle has been propelled by memory and will be extended by significant investment in China in 2019. Although a potential slowdown in 2020 is a concern, the overall outlook for semiconductor demand remains solid due to broad-based growth trends in data center, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML), automotive, and industrial segments. Following are other SEMI forecasts for fab spending. Installed Capacity 3D NAND will see the most capacity added in both 2018 and 2019 with growth of 41 percent in 2018 and 27 percent in 2019. Foundry capacity growth is steady at 3 percent in 2018 and 6 percent in 2019, driven by both leading-edge and trailing-edge capacity buildup. 200mm fab capacity will increase 4 percent in 2018 and 3 percent in 2019, fueled by demand for MCU, sensors, PMIC, MOSFET and Driver IC. New Facilities / Construction Spending In 2018, there are 72 construction projects with investments totaling $15 billion, a year-over-year increase of 23 percent. Construction spending will reach all-time highs with China continuing its lead at US$7 billion in 2018, shattering its own record of $6.3 billion investment in 2017. Most construction spending in 2018 will be for Memory (just under $9 billion), primarily for 3D NAND followed by DRAM. Foundry will log second place in construction spending at just under $5 billion. Fab Equipment Spending Fab equipment spending (new and used) for 2018 is expected to jump 14 percent to a record high of US$63 billion, flat from the forecast issued in June 2018. Equipment spending (new and used) for 2019 is expected to increase 8 percent to another record of just under US$68 billion, a downward adjustment from +9 percent published in June 2018. We believe equipment spending will remain healthy, driven by solid, broad-based demand and predictable technology investments on top of constructive SEMICAP equipment fundamentals. Activity Report The August report features 1,265 records including about 300 Opto- and LED-related facilities. We have made 223 changes related to 216 fabs/lines. The modifications include the addition of new records, changes to existing records, the deletion of records since the February 2018 World Fab Forecast report. We are tracking 103 future facilities/lines with various probabilities that will start volume production in 2018 or later. Download a sample report Not a subscriber? Please review SEMI fab databases listed below. Our databases deliver the latest forecast and a complete analysis of front-end fabs and foundries worldwide. They are ideal resources to empower your market research. Eugenia Liu is a Senior Product Marketing Manager at SEMI.

Powerful winds of change are re-shaping the semiconductor industry as it flexes and re-positions to power a new wave of growth on the back of emerging applications. Today, the industry is thriving, with growth expected to continue through 2019 even as Moore’s Law – the trusty doubling of transistors roughly every two years – begins to pump the brakes. Product mix and production technology are shifting as the dominant smartphone and PC markets, having seen their growth peaks, start to give way to large markets with relatively low semiconductor penetration, such as automotive.What’s more, new potentially ubiquitous technologies and platforms such as AI, blockchain and smart manufacturing are redefining market dynamics and the semiconductor ecosystem that underlies them.Troublingly, the most significant threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are not of its own making. Macroeconomic trends and trade policy disputes loom.These were some of the key takeaways from the SEMI Market Symposium kicking off SEMICON West in San Francisco this week. Following is a deeper look.Semiconductor MarketThe consensus view, reflected in forecasts presented by Clark Tseng of SEMI and Bob Johnson of Gartner, is that the semiconductor industry could top $500 billion in 2019 after reaching $400 billion in 2017. According to Gartner, smartphones and PCs will continue to account for large parts of the market, but will be displaced as major drivers of market growth by the emergence of industrial, automotive and, to a lesser extent, storage, from 2017 to 2022. Johnson noted that while communications and data processing applications drive logic device demand, average sales prices (ASPs) are a bigger contributor to revenue growth than unit growth.Leading-edge processors are a big part of the ASP picture, with equipment costs increasing ~20 percent per node. One challenge is that as Moore’s Law loses steam, leading logic producers are increasingly going their own way with new production technology. The volatile DRAM market – now in a “super cycle,” according to Tseng, and expected to peak in 2019 – has been stoking memory market growth.Initially, supply shortages fueled memory price increases as three of the four leading memory makers invested in flash rather than DRAM capacity. However, memory prices have been more recently been lifted by technology complexity, particularly as DRAM has moved to 3D architectures. The good news is that pricing, at long last, appears to be driven by value.Automotive MarketWith automotive accounting for less than 10 percent of semiconductor demand, there is room for growth. Rudy Burger of Woodside Partners noted that while the end market for automobiles is growing slowly, at 3 percent CAGR, the market size is nearing 100 million units. In market segments such as electric vehicles, the semiconductor content exceeds $1,000 but can be much higher.For example, the BMW i3 sports over $4,000 in semiconductor content. Burger said connectivity, autonomous driving and shared mobility services are also key opportunities for semiconductors to deepen their penetration in automobiles. For instance, the auto market for cameras, is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2017 to $6 billion in 2022.On average, high-end vehicles feature over $1,000 in semiconductor content, whereas low-end vehicles hover in the $400 range, said Anand Srinivasan of Bloomberg. Because the automotive market is segmented by function or subsystem, with different suppliers focusing on different areas, there is little supply concentration. Srinivasan also pointed out that because of significant differences in their objectives, automotive safety and automation systems should be developed separately.BlockchainThe chief benefit of blockchain is the trust it begets among all parties to a digital transaction through four fundamental features, said David Treat of Accenture: The tracking of provenance (knowing who has touched data, and what has happened to it) Tamper evidence (knowing if someone has tried to change the data) Control (which data elements to share with which parties) Security at the data element level While most of the hype over blockchain focuses on tokenized assets and ledgers (bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies), the fundamental application in the semiconductor industry is sharing trusted access to reference data at the data element level. This ability to provide shared trust can reduce costs throughout the supply chain and across enterprises. For example, future blockchain implementations will offer a full ecosystem view to any supply chain participant. While blockchain has typically been deployed through centralized control or platforms, peer consortia, such as SEMI, could help weave the benefits of blockchain through various ecosystems by enabling equipment and material suppliers, device manufacturers, designers and system integrators to share business and technical information securely and, if desired, anonymously.Global and Macroeconomic TrendsThe biggest threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are exogenous. After a decade of steady recovery since the financial crisis, the global economy appears to be heading for a slowdown. Duncan Meldrum of Hilltop Economics made the case that the global economy is at or just past the peak of the business cycle, and semiconductor equipment is past the peak.A key indicator of a looming recessionary is the movement toward an inverted yield curve, in which long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates – a phenomena that could materialize this year or next.The increasingly heated trade climate, marked by high-stakes confrontations between the U.S. and China, threatens complex supply chain arrangements, though mercurial policy statements could do even more harm than stiffer trade tariffs. Underscoring competing interests between the U.S. and China and the unpredictability of their relations, Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors pointed out that, in 2019, 60 percent of all semiconductors are expected to be used in China, deepening the dependency of several U.S. semiconductor companies on China.Paul Semenza, for SEMI Industry Research and Statistics

Device manufacturers continue to invest. Spending in cloud data center (compute, networking and storage), automotive (content per car increases), industrial (on content, factory automation, and positive macro trends), and consumer (gaming) end-markets is particularly strong. We see capital expenditure growth in 2018 and early indications pointing to sustainable spending into 2019. We also expect 14 percent increase (YoY) for fab equipment spending in 2018, up from the February forecast of 9 percent, and expect 9 percent increase in 2019, adjusted from the February forecast of 5 percent. 92 future facilities/lines with various probabilities are scheduled to start production in 2018 or later. Fab investment is just one indicator of how growing demand in areas such as from Artificial Intelligence (AI), cloud/data storage, automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) is driving unprecedented spending in the semiconductor industry. Below are a few highlights* of recent SEMI FabView insights. Details of each project can be found in FabView online 24/7 or World Fab Forecast report (Excel format). Infineon’s new 300mm Fab in Austria - Infineon is planning a new 300mm thin wafer Fab for Power Devices in Villach, Austria. Rumors on Toshiba’s new Fab plans - More 3D NAND fabs in the future at Toshiba are feasible. The timing will depend on market conditions, and our forecast will adjust accordingly. Vanguard's possible 300mm foundry fab - Vanguard's management said it might buy or build a 300mm fab in the near future as all 200mm fabs are essentially full. Powerchip plans to build new memory fab in Taiwan - Powerchip is investing more in expansions since Memory pricing is holding up. Rohm announced to build a new SiC fab in Fukuoka Japan - Rohm announced its plans to build a new SiC fab. Micron is building a new fab in Singapore - Micron broke ground in a ceremony for a new fab in Singapore on April 4, 2018. Bosch had groundbreaking ceremony of their 300mm fab in Dresden end April 2018 - Investment of 1 billion Euro. This is the biggest single investment in Bosch’s 130-year history. SEMI FabView, a mobile-friendly, interactive version of SEMI’s popular World Fab Forecast, delivers on-demand fab information such as fab spending and capacity for over 1,100 facilities, including over 82 planned facilities worldwide, across a wide range of product segments including Power, GPU, Memory, Foundry, MEMS and Sensors fabs. Fab data include region, start of construction, operation, construction and equipment spending, capacity, wafer sizes, product types and geometries. SEMI FabView subscribers receive forecast model updates through SEMI’s World Fab Database. Click here for a trial to experience SEMI FabView first hand. *Actual updates provide more detail Christian G. Dieseldorff and Clark Tseng, Industry Research Statistics Group, SEMI.