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Mike Russo

For public policy lovers, civic-minded, engaged U.S. citizens, and people around the world interested in the U.S. President’s positions and priorities, the annual State of the Union address (SOTU) is “must-see TV.” This year, the anticipation and expectations were different than with past presidents. President Trump is the first U.S. president who has used social media to the extreme that he has. President Trump’s prolific Twitter feed has had an interesting impact on the SOTU. U.S. citizens and people from around the world already know President Trump’s positions on issues, his policy priorities and what gets him excited. There is an ongoing, direct line to the President’s thoughts throughout each and every day. In the past we looked to the SOTU for insights into what the sitting president is really thinking and his future policy priorities. Now, there isn’t much we don’t already know.One looming question this year was whether President Trump would reach out in a conciliatory manner to help bridge the political divide and lay the groundwork to enable some public policy wins and avoid another government shutdown. While there were moments of conciliation, the President made it clear he would not move on areas that are most contentious with the other side of the aisle. For example, the President unequivocally reiterated his intent to build the wall. While the message plays well to his base, it is, in effect, a frontal assault and challenge to Democrats. It’s hard to image that his staunch stance will help move the two parties to work together on substantive policy issues. It may also mean that the wall issue will occupy lawmakers time for the foreseeable future, sidelining debate on other important issues.The best hope is that a bipartisan bill finds its way to the President’s desk that he can sign and use to “declare victory.” However, many political observers believe the likelihood of the President declaring a national security emergency is rising as a maneuver to ensure funding for the wall and avoid a shutdown. While such a declaration would most likely face a court challenge, the President could claim that his decision was a move of last resort and leverage the moment to position Democrats as obstructionists to his base. The scenario does not bode well for the bipartisan support necessary to address other issues.What does this mean for our industry? Were there any points raised in the SOTU that would signal a change in what we are facing regarding trade, tariffs, export controls and immigration? Were any new issues or ideas raised that could help lift the global economy? In short, no. On one hand, the President cited his good relationship with the president of China, but on the other doubled down on his attacks on China, seeming to stand firm to bolster his position at the table as the U.S. and China trade talks continue.What do these dynamics mean for SEMI Global Advocacy? In 2018 we were heavily engaged in efforts to prevent regulations that would inhibit our members' ability to develop and deploy technologies and maintain global market access. We advanced our global advocacy model, leveraging our regional presence around the world. Many of the potential issues we faced emanated from the U.S., including those focused on controlling technology development, limiting trade and enhancing export controls. We also intensified our efforts to address industry talent pipeline issues.In 2019, our public policy focus will be to continue to push back on tariffs, engage members to inform the rule-making process for export controls and to attempt to influence the immigration debate as it pertains to access to talent. In addition, while the U.S. R D tax credit was made permanent through the tax cut in 2017, some of the provisions may have unintended consequences and will need to be modified. How the law is enacted will affect how businesses can deduct qualified research and development and other expenses from their taxable income, so we anticipate activity on the tax front as well.It will also be a big year for SEMI on the workforce development front. SEMI will continue to grow its existing High Tech U (HTU), university and mentor programs. In addition, SEMI will be positioning itself as the global leader in addressing issues related to the talent pipeline by approaching the problem with a full-spectrum, holistic approach that is intended to better address more immediate needs in attracting, training and retaining qualified talent. We’ll also focus on improving the industry image and exciting students at a younger age by providing experiential learning activities throughout a defined educational pathway. Stay tuned on this front as the full program unfolds.In general, we will continue to build our relationships and stature as a leading voice for our members and the end-to-end semiconductor supply chain in the areas of talent, trade, tax and technology (SEMI’s “4 Ts”) and to ensure free and fair trade, access to markets, supply chain growth, IP protections and enhanced efforts to improve cybersecurity. Mike Russo is VP of Global Industry Advocacy at SEMI.
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With (most of) the election results in from the U.S. midterms, the expected Democratic takeover of the House and the Republican’s maintaining control of the Senate is now a reality. The day of the election, DC insiders expected that the House would go to the Democrats by a margin of +/- 20, with the Republicans gaining 2-3 seats in the Senate. Not a bad prediction, which is a far cry from what the same insiders called in advance of the 2016 Presidential election.What does that mean for our members and the tech sector in general? Will there be an ease of trade tensions or less of a chance of tighter export controls? Some believe that with the midterm elections over, President Trump will have some room to take a less aggressive stance against China, setting up a “win” that he can carry into 2020. With the recent more aggressive stance by North Korea against the U.S. regarding its nuclear program, China may well have some leverage at the trade table … and the U.S. may want to make a deal that provides a path for a “win” on both fronts. Indeed, there are the makings of a potential win-win leading into the G20 meeting in Argentina when President Xi Jinping and President Trump are scheduled to meet on Dec. 1.One can see a scenario where there is a meeting of the minds and some degree of lessening tariffs; that does not mean that the effort to enhance export controls will go away. The need for tighter restrictions on export controls is driven to a great degree by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and is a follow on from the previous FIRRMA legislation and attempts to curb the loss of U.S. technology critical to global competitiveness and national security. This issue will not go away anytime soon, and cases like the recent one involving Jinhua only add fuel to the fire. In addition, given how these cases can be leveraged at the negotiating table, they will continue to surface.SEMI’s approach has been to educate governments, lawmakers and administration officials on the strategic importance of the globally connected and highly complex semiconductor supply chain, and how some of the approaches will not achieve the attended goals. This approach helps to ensure that when and if it comes time to make decisions based on merit, the principals are informed. It also helps SEMI and its members develop and maintain important relationships and positions SEMI as an industry leader and spokesperson, making it a more effective advocate. As an example, on Nov 8th SEMI released its Global Trade Principles with the intention of providing a framework to all governments to guide various trade talks. It also helps to inform member companies and others from the broader tech sector of our industry position(s) so we are able to speak with one voice. These principles are aligned with our fundamental advocacy pillars of promoting free trade and market access, respect for IP, cybersecurity and national security.Will the fact that power is now split between the two chambers of Congress help or hurt? Will the House focus on investigations limit the ability to move productive legislation? Besides taking time, it may well put them at increasingly worse odds with the Senate and the President (if that is possible), creating deadlock. Some argue that if nothing moves, no harm can be done. Some also say that it may drive the President to take independent and more aggressive actions in order to demonstrate (his) effectiveness to his base. There is another view: that with the Democrats, the President may be able to lead in the advancement of legislation that will show he can get things done when others couldn’t in areas that benefit the greater good…some of which may impact our industry…such as investments in education and infrastructure development. This would be a way that he could pull in some of the votes from the middle that he has lost in his first two years in office. They say “politics makes for strange bedfellows”; one never knows what might happen in this case.Regardless of what happens, some things will not change: the global nature of our business and the needs of our members to have access to markets…and to be able to safely and efficiently leverage their technologies in the way they see fit in order to grow their business. SEMI will continue to advance the interests in what is an extremely challenging and dynamic global policy environment today. As ruling parties and representatives change around the globe, we will continue to build new relationships and educate lawmakers so they are able to make informed decisions that benefit our members. Mike Russo is VP of Public Policy and Talent Advocacy at SEMI.
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