COVID-19

For five days in the latter half of March, the pall of the heavy human and economic toll COVID-19 has exacted in China appeared to be lifting. The epicenter of Wuhan reported no new coronavirus infections through domestic transmission. And in an initial step to loosen its nationwide lockdown, China began reversing restrictions on travel within its borders.Now, in another sign of progress, the region’s idled factory workforce is preparing to return to the production lines. Outside of Hubei province, home to Wuhan, most manufacturing workers are expected to be back on the job by the end of this month, with the proportion of manufacturing employees returning to work in Hubei cities except Wuhan reaching 70 percent by then, said Didier Chenneveau, Partner, Supply Chain Practice, McKinsey Company, in a late-March webinar presented by the business consultancy and SEMI.McKinsey is also “seeing evidence of a rebound in demand led by China’s online sales” as rising consumer confidence and a surge in the popularity of work-from-home policies spur strong spending on laptop computers, Chenneveau said.The turnaround stands in stark contrast to the unprecedented drop in demand McKinsey saw across retail and durable goods in China early in the year. Over the first two months, passenger car sales plunged 90 percent, smart phone receipts 40 percent and retail sales 21 percent, leading to what Chenneveau calls a whiplash effect that could disrupt supply chains as manufacturers and shipping companies scramble to meet pent-up demand once a recovery takes hold. As the outlook for China’s factories and suppliers brightens, concerns are shifting to the ripple effect of its deep manufacturing pullback on demand for goods in the United States and Europe. Sharp disruptions to global supply chains caused by labor shortages and knotty logistics challenges have also become worrisome. And while China is buoyed by the prospect of normalizing its workforce and manufacturing capabilities, parts shortages are bottlenecking production. In the United States and Europe, where 60 percent of air freight is carried in cargo holds of passenger aircraft, logistics concerns loom large with the widespread flight groundings. “Logistics must be a priority in any crisis war room because it’s a big challenge,” Chenneveau said.Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain ImpactsIn Asia, the semiconductor supply chain is working to overcome intractable challenges caused by COVID-19 including sourcing raw materials for chip manufacturing and maintaining assembly and test operations, Mark Patel, Sr. Partner Semiconductor Practice Lead, McKinsey Company, said at the webinar. Those problems cascade to foundries and IDMs even as they confront the compounding issue of a shortage of fab operators and engineers. Downstream, the inability to package, test and qualify products risks exacerbating the supply constraints.Patel said another acute challenge is that most semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers are operating under restricted practices, making it harder to sustain engineering activities vital to new product introductions, new process development and capital equipment expansion. In the longer term, the supply chain fallout hold implications for product life cycles and investments in capacity and next-generation technology – factors that analysts will need to monitor in evaluating the economic impact.Returning Workers Key to Economic RecoveryIssuing shelter-in-place orders have been an effective antidote to the spread of COVID-19 but a double-edged sword as nations worldwide sustain the economic blowback. Discretionary consumer spending on items such as automobiles has dropped by 45 percent globally so far this year, business investment has fallen and trade has seen a sharp slowdown, said Sven Smit, Chairman and Director at the McKinsey Global Institute, speaking at the webinar.A lockdown for as little as a month can slash aggregate global GDP by as much as 10 percent, a scenario McKinsey expects to play out in the second quarter of 2020. The drop would be the deepest since World War II and larger than the plunge in the first quarter of the Great Depression, raising the question of how long governments can afford to keep workers holed up at home.“The economic shock is unprecedented,” Smit said. “We’ve never sent people home to not work. Even in World War II, next to the front lines, people were harvesting food.”China offers a potential blueprint for economic recovery. McKinsey estimates that China’s rigorous containment efforts could help its economy bounce back in as little as six months – a V-shaped rebound. Western nations generally have not been as forceful with their containment measures. For them, the fight against the pathogen could be prolonged, deepening the economic damage.Yet even with the best protective lockdowns, a new challenge arises: The longer shelter-in-place orders remain in effect to contain the spread of the virus, the longer the economic impact drags on. “Until the path to return to work becomes clearer, people will not be confident to spend,” Smit said.Confronted with that reality, governments worldwide must strike the delicate balance between safeguarding the lives of people – critical forces of economic growth through consumer spending – and limiting the economic shock. The faster the virus can be brought to heel, the softer the impact to economies around the world. And the stronger the return-to-work protocols in place once COVID-19 has been brought under control, the faster workers can get back to their jobs. Smit believes resolving both issues simultaneously is not only possible but necessary for a return to normalcy.“That’s the imperative of our time,” he said. Related blog COVID-19: The Way Forward – Insights from McKinsey Company For McKinsey’s latest insights on the coronavirus pandemic, visit its website, which is updated daily.For the latest COVID-19 information and SEMI event updates SEMI is providing members, visit Coronavirus Resources.Michael Hall is a marketing communications manager at SEMI.

On Saturday, March, 21, 2020 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave emergency authorization to Cepheid, a California company, to sell a new test for rapid detection of the pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. Cepheid’s Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2 test gives healthcare workers results in just 45 minutes, with less than a minute of hands-on time for sample preparation.Cepheid, founded by Kurt Petersen, M. Allen Northrup and five others in 1996, is well known in the MEMS community for commercializing microfluidic chip-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis machines. This is not the first time Cepheid has responded quickly to a biological threat; after the 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, Cepheid was the first to provide rapid anthrax detection capabilities to the U.S. Postal Service, and it still does today.At the heart of all COVID-19 test protocols (see the WHO protocol and U.S. CDC protocol) is the real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis technique. In a very simplified description, PCR uses thermal cycling to amplify the DNA present in a patient’s swab sample, and then using fluorescence optical detection, searches for the virus’s specific DNA. The test requires knowing the virus’s genome in the first place; the crucial work to sequence the full genome of SARS-CoV-2 was first published by Chinese scientists for public use on January 10, 2020.While traditional PCR machines take many hours to thermal cycle and reach a result, MEMS-based PCR systems can work much faster. Featuring scale heaters and reaction chambers that have a tiny thermal mass, they create a significantly faster heat-cool cycle, enabling a rapid result in minutes.The first MEMS silicon PCR chip, developed by Northrup et. al. at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and licensed to Cepheid (left) and the Cepheid test cartridge today (right). (Source: Northrup MA, Ching MT, White RM, Watson RT, “DNA amplification in a microfabricated reaction chamber,” Transducers 1993, Yokohama, Japan. pp. 924–926.) Research on MEMS-based PCR systems has continued steadily since the early 1990s. Today, researchers have been focusing on developing highly integrated, low-cost systems specifically for point-of-care use. One example of recent research: a team at Korea’s ETRI and Genesystem have developed a prototype low-cost, handheld PCR system having a polyimide chamber and microheater and an integrated CMOS detector for optical readout of results (figure below). Cross-section schematic of the chamber, heating module and integrated optical detector in a portable PCR prototype (left) and integrated test cartridge (right). (Source: DS Lee, OR Choi, and YJ Seo, “A Handheld and Battery-Powered Realtime Microfluidic PCR Amplification Device,” Transducers 2019, Berlin, Germany pp. 1063-1065.) Korea’s quick recruitment of its biotech companies and creation of novel drive-through testing sites helped it to successfully pinpoint its COVID-19 outbreak and to implement control measures. Let’s hope the Cepheid test can be similarly effective.Based on successive epidemics of SARS, MERS and now COVID-19, rapid PCR test machines, enabled by MEMS technology, are becoming essential medical tools in the fight against viral outbreaks. As continued development lowers the cost of such critical equipment, let’s hope we may soon have a PCR machine in every doctor’s office.Alissa M. Fitzgerald, Ph.D., founded A.M. Fitzgerald Associates, LLC (“AMFitzgerald”), a MEMS and sensors solutions company based in Burlingame, CA, in 2003. She has over 25 years of engineering experience in MEMS design, fabrication and product development.Prior to founding AMFitzgerald, Fitzgerald worked at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Orbital Sciences Corporation, Sigpro, and Sensant Corporation, now part of Siemens. She received her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from MIT and her doctorate from Stanford University, in Aeronautics and Astronautics. Fitzgerald has numerous journal publications and holds eight patents. She served on the Governing Council of MEMS Industry Group from 2008-2014 and was inducted into the MIG Hall of Fame in 2013. Fitzgerald serves on the Board of Directors of both Rigetti Computing and the Transducer Research Foundation.AMFitzgerald is a longtime member of MEMS Sensors Industry Group (MSIG), a SEMI Strategic Association Partner. For more information on AMFitzgerald, please visit: https://www.amfitzgerald.com.Interested in learning more about this topic? Read Alissa M. Fitzgerald and Farzad Khademolhosseini’s article in EE Times, MEMS in the Fight Against Covid-19.

In the two months since the COVID-19 outbreak in January, the Chinese economy has shifted from shock to ongoing recovery under the guidance of the Chinese government. China has worked tirelessly to restore production at its chip manufacturing facilities, a core strategic industry in the region, and the effort is paying off. Operations at several fabs and OSATs – the domestic semiconductor industry’s chief growth engines – have begun to stabilize.As of mid-March, SMIC had restored its manufacturing lines to over 90% of production capacity and expects to be operating at full bore in the next few weeks, while the company’s R D line has returned to full operation. Huahong Grace reestablished normal supplies of various equipment parts and production raw materials. At Huahong Fab2, 12 new pieces of equipment went online to help increase production capacity, and production at Huahong Fab1 and Huahong Fab3 is now stable. JCET said the company's overall return rate has exceeded 90%. Meanwhile, IDM maker Silan Microelectronics' 6-inch and 8-inch lines maintained 90% production.Production lines at Huahong Group, SMIC, CanSemi, GTA Semiconductor, Samsung (Xi'an) and other mainland China chip manufacturers have been generally operating at normal capacity since the Spring Festival. Lines at YMTC, Tianma, CSOT, and BOE, all in the Coronavirus epicenter of Wuhan, have also returned to normal operations. China’s chip industry is finding its footing, and an impressive host of semiconductor companies are gearing up to participate at SEMICON China 2020, rescheduled to June 27-29. The list includes the major domestic wafer foundries such as Huahong, the major packaging and testing companies such as JCET, TFME, Huatian, and large domestic and foreign equipment companies, among them TEL, ASMPT, DISCO, ULVAC, VAT, ASML, KLA, NAURA, AMEC, Anji, CETC, Sinyang, SMEE, CAS, CANON and SPIROX.DigiTimes, a daily newspaper covering the semiconductor, electronics, computer and communications industries in Asia, interviewed SEMI China President Lung Chu in mid-March about what’s ahead for China’s semiconductor industry. Following is an English translation of the interview. DigiTimes InterviewAs China continues to ramp back up to normal activity, SEMI China is making every effort to hold SEMICON China 2020, a leading international semiconductor industry platform for promoting growth and innovation in China's semiconductor industry supply chain. SEMI China president Chu emphasized that the strong support of SEMICON China 2020 exhibitors and the Chinese government made rescheduling the event to June possible.Chu, a semiconductor industry veteran who has experienced numerous economic and industry upheavals over his career including the SARS shock in 2003, said current global economic uncertainty stems from two black swans – the global COVID-19 pandemic and how long it will take to contain it, and the sharp drop in oil prices triggered by the recent geopolitical dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia. In China, the government responded with strict containment actions and promoted public awareness of self-isolation, resulting in effective domestic containment as of mid-March. As a major oil consumer, China sees the lower prices as relatively favorable to its economy. Those dynamics should allow China to recover sooner than many other regions, and it could emerge even stronger once the pandemic is contained, despite the current slump in global semiconductor demand, Chu said. Once the epidemic has passed, China is in a position of "turning crisis into opportunity," and the semiconductor industry will recover from the trough, he said. Companies in semiconductor supply-chain sectors face various challenges in restoring normal operations. IC design companies experienced relatively low impact since employees can work from home and most companies are located in major cities in China, where epidemic prevention control is strict. For most chip manufacturers, production has not stopped but is hampered by manpower shortages from restrictions on employees returning to work. IC packaging and testing companies are suffering bigger impacts because of the more labor-intensive nature of their operations. However, all companies in the supply chain will be affected by the decline in demand for electronic products and ICs in 2020. As the COVID-19 threat recedes in China, the region remains unwavering in its commitment to semiconductors as a strategic industry with its continuing efforts to evolve sustainable and reliable localized supply chains, Chu said. Investments in “new Infrastructure” for 5G, the Internet of Things (IoT), data centers, as well as public health services should help drive semiconductor demand for smart applications and devices associated with the new infrastructures as are all powered by ICs, benefiting companies in the global supply chain. The COVID-19 outbreak triggered a slowdown in new factory construction after the Chinese government implemented restrictions on the flow of people resulting in a worker shortage. SEMI has revised downward its forecast of wafer equipment spending in China to just a 3% increase this year.Market analysts revised downward forecasts for 2020 annual global semiconductor revenue growth from 7-10% to 0-5%, while some expect negative growth. The recent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe, the United States and other regions have created more uncertainty. Declining end-user demand for electronics will drive down spending on upstream equipment for both memory and logic IC device makers. For Chu and his SEMI China staff, the postponement of SEMICON China 2020 has been a “major challenge,” he said. “It is a huge project to communicate and coordinate with the government and to reconfirm with exhibitors and industry leaders.”As a leading industry platform, SEMICON China attracts a large number of global customers and suppliers each year. The major China domestic suppliers, leading foundries and OSATs have confirmed their attendance in SEMICON China 2020. Most key foreign suppliers are planning to staff the event with local teams in case some executives are unable to enter China by June due to travel restrictions if the COVID-19 virus has not been brought under control in the United States, Europe and other regions. To assure the success of the concurrent Forums, SEMI has prepared multiple contingency plans, including live broadcast, video and slide presentations. SEMI will also hold the grand opening session at a larger venue than last year’s event to accommodate more attendees with more sitting distance apart. SEMI will follow government guidelines to implement appropriate public health and safety measures during SEMICON China. "Ensuring the welfare of all exhibitors and guests and providing a safe exhibition environment is SEMI’s top priority," Chu said.Cherry Sun is a marketing manager at SEMI China.