autonomous driving

U.S. consumers are flush with cash, the American economy is hurtling back from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the semiconductor industry is flying high on skyrocketing chip demand, with chip equities soaring since the initial outbreak in early 2020 as virus outbreaks worldwide supercharged demand for the digitization of everything from factories to home offices. “Wow, what a difference a year makes,” said Jennie Raubacher, Global Head of Semiconductor Electronics Investment Banking at Wells Fargo, speaking at a recent SEMI webinar. The two rounds of government stimulus payments in 2020 and 2021 gave many U.S. households the safety net to withstand the heaviest blows dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic and stoked consumer spending that has helped lift a hobbled economy. Durable goods spending in the U.S. has also seen a sharp rebound, surging more than 60% from its April 2020 trough, Raubacher said. The twin forces have driven a blistering U.S. economic recovery after GDP shrunk about 10% by the second quarter of 2020 only to bounce back in the first quarter of this year to roughly $19 trillion, regaining the lost ground to match the GDP charted at the end of 2019. With the U.S. economy continuing to gain steam, inflation has, as expected, edged higher, with price increases particularly acute in used vehicle and lumber markets. Despite surging prices, Wells Fargo sees inflation moderating as durable goods demand slows, easing pressure on interest rates, Raubacher said. Equity Valuations at Record Highs Heady semiconductor stock prices are not new. Over the past 15 years, equity prices of chip companies in the S P 500 have grown more than 460%, outpacing the 230% jump in value of the S P 500 index overall, Raubacher said. And chip stocks continue to shine. Since early 2020, when the spread of COVID-19 hit its rapid clip, the recognition of the growing importance of chips to economies around the world has exploded. That dynamic joined secular technology trends including autonomous driving development, industrial and factory automation, 5G infrastructure buildouts, data center expansions, and smart city and smart home innovation fueled by the Internet of Things (IoT) as key drivers of semiconductor stock valuations. With its price/earnings (PE) ratio now at more than 21x, the S P 500 is well above its historical average of 15x PE. “The S P 500 valuation is at record high any way you look at it, and valuation multiples across the board, currently at 3x Next Twelve Months revenue, have increased dramatically from historical averages,” Raubacher said. Semiconductor stock valuations are on similar trajectory, with the SOXX index now at 15x Next Twelve Months EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). “While semiconductor stocks may seem highly valued compared to historical levels, the chip industry has grown faster and expanded profitability by a wider margin than S P 500 companies,” Raubacher said. With that differential, “semiconductor equities are not as expensive as they may seem at first glance.” Earnings expansion and valuation multiple increases for the chip industry over the past 15 years have translated into a more than 500% jump in market capitalization, compared to a 300% increase for the S P 500 excluding chip companies, she said. Chip company revenue growth in the first quarter of 2021 was predictably low due to seasonality, dipping 2.4%, though dropped less than the historical average, Raubacher said. Second-quarter revenue growth for the industry is expected to hew to the historical average of 6%. Semiconductor growth forecasts by market analysts for 2021 range widely from 6% to 17% year-over-year, she added. Chip Companies Raise Capital at Record Pace In 2020 and 2021, semiconductor companies have raised an unprecedented $82 billion in capital to finance maturing debt and acquisitions, a wave that will “likely catalyze further consolidation in the sector,” Raubacher said. None of the financing has stemmed from liquidity crunches. Since Raubacher joined Wells Fargo 10 years ago to lead its semiconductor practice, the group has executed more than 175 transactions including $40 billion in mergers and acquisitions and $360 billion of financing for its semiconductor industry clients. “With a strong macroeconomic backdrop and demand environment, relatively low interest rates, semiconductor companies showing strong business fundamentals and robust valuations, we expect a pickup in M A activity,” she said. Growth Forecast Across Most Semiconductor Applications The next four years will see the chip industry grow across most applications including wireless communications, consumer electronics, transportation and medical. Automotive and industrial/aerospace will lead the way, expanding at an expected compounded annual growth rate of 14% and 10%, respectively, from 2020 to 2025 to “drive a significant portion of the TAM expansion during that period,” Raubacher said. Across all applications, the semiconductor industry is expected to grow at a 6.8% CAGR from 2020 through 2025, adding $183 billion in revenue by the end of the forecast period, she said. ESG Rises in Importance For their part, investors now focus on more than pure business performance when valuing individual companies. The ability of businesses to reduce their carbon footprint, promote workplace diversity and take other steps to serve the greater good as part of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) programs are carrying more weight in valuation models. “Investors are paying more and more attention to ESG initiatives and targets,” Raubacher said. “On the debt side, we’re seeing things like green bonds and interest rate reductions tied to ESG targets. Only a few semiconductor companies have incorporated ESG measures into their financing, so it’s still early days. It really comes down to the metrics you can track in your companies and the goals and targets you can commit to. It will be a very company-specific approach rather than an industry standard.” In the chip industry, Raubacher noted that ESG targets are geared not only to manufacturing equipment and processes in fabs and other semiconductor facilities throughout the supply chain, but increasingly also to chips themselves. As technology innovation continues to spur the development of chips to power more electronics for consumers and businesses, their proliferation comes at a cost: greater energy consumption. The upshot is that semiconductor makers are becoming more focused than ever on power-efficient designs to bolster their ESG initiatives, Raubacher said. Many semiconductor players across the supply chain are reducing their carbon footprint by switching to energy-saving equipment and reducing water waste, Raubacher said. At the same time, more semiconductor executives are recognizing the rising importance of highlighting corporate achievements across all aspects of ESG. More Governments See Vital Importance of Semiconductors As shelter-in-place orders took hold in countries worldwide after the initial COVID-19 outbreak, work-from-home offices, online shopping, virtual classes and remote doctor’s visits became the norm. The electronics at the heart of this connectivity – born of both necessity and convenience – and the chips that power them took on outsized importance around the world. Geopolitical skirmishes intensified and supply chains across the semiconductor industry were reimagined and redrawn. Governments jockeyed for advantage in the race to build new semiconductor manufacturing facilities and upped their chip investments. An acute chip shortage that started in the automotive industry and quickly spread to other sectors magnified just how pervasive and vital semiconductors had become in making the world go round. “There’s no question that the semiconductor industry is vitally important to global and national economies as governments around the world now recognize its strategic importance,” Raubacher said. That puts the industry in an even stronger position to help lay the regulatory groundwork for its own future. “There’s a unique opportunity for semiconductor industry executives to shape the public policies that could impact the direction of the industry for the next 30 years,” she said. More than 750 people attended the June 2nd webinar, Surging Chip Demand, Digital Transformation, and the Pandemic – What’s Next?, sponsored by SEMI members Brooks Automation, Hitachi, JECT, KLA and TEL. Sven Smit of McKinsey Company also delivered his talk Leading in COVID-19 Exit at the event.

In my role as lead for the Smart Mobility initiative at SEMI, I recently spoke with Automotive Logistics Magazine about the growing importance of the semiconductor supply chain’s connection with the automotive industry and the semiconductor shortage hampering global automotive production. Following are excerpts from the interview. Automotive Logistics: Why is there a bottleneck in the global supply of semiconductors at the moment and how long is it likely to last? Weiss: The current automotive chip shortage resulted from the sharp, Covid-19-induced decrease in demand for automotive semiconductors in the second quarter of last year when vehicle production came to a near standstill. The automotive market picked up significantly in the fourth quarter and this caused the supply chain constraints we are seeing today. At the same time as the automotive standstill, the pandemic spurred an increase in demand for home computing and networking equipment, and semiconductor manufacturing plants (fabs) had to pivot to these other markets in order to maximize fab utilization and successfully navigate economic headwinds. Every minute a semiconductor fab is idle or has lines down adds up quickly to missed revenue, so their capacity is booked weeks and even months in advance. With this background, I don’t believe this is a structural shortage and expect a gradual recovery over the next two quarters, barring any major shifts in geopolitics or macroeconomics. Automotive Logistics: What needs to be done to remedy the current shortfall for the automotive industry? Weiss: The automotive industry needs to continue to strengthen its connections to the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain. In past years, auto manufacturers used to rely mainly on their tier one suppliers to interface with the semiconductor supply chain. This has changed significantly. Not only are more chips being used in vehicles (roughly 10% of all devices produced globally end up in cars), but the strategic importance of the chips as enablers for ADAS [advanced driver-assistance systems], electrification, safety, connectivity and other consumer-driven features has increased considerably. With this dynamic in play, carmakers have recognized the value of interacting and collaborating more closely with the semiconductor supply chain. This provides vehicle OEMs with access to innovation, the ability to influence technology direction and pace, along with greater visibility into global supply chain developments. The SEMI Smart Mobility initiative is evidence of this transition, with the likes of Audi, BMW, Ford, Uber, Volkswagen and other vehicle OEMs, along with tier one suppliers such as Continental and Bosch, now actively involved in our automotive electronics and mobility activities to do exactly that – influence, partner, accelerate and guide the global electronics design and manufacturing supply chain that SEMI represents. Automotive Logistics: What percentage of semiconductors manufactured for use by US-based companies are for automotive applications and how has this grown in recent years? Weiss: A little over 10% of semiconductors produced worldwide are sold into the automotive segment, but this number is expected to grow at an accelerated pace in the next few years as electrification, connectivity and autonomous driving become more prevalent. Automotive Logistics: How is SEMI working to help the automotive industry get a clearer view of sub-component supply and better manage supply chain risk? Weiss: The SEMI Smart Mobility initiative is designed to engage automotive OEMs, tier ones, semiconductor device makers, design houses, and equipment and materials companies to drive alignment across the supply chain and address shared challenges collectively. To facilitate this engagement, we created the Global Automotive Advisory Council (GAAC), which has active chapters in Europe, US, China, Japan and Taiwan. The GAAC provides an open platform for creating solutions, fostering collaboration and partnering with other industry bodies to accelerate and harmonize industry efforts that benefit the entire ecosystem. Volkswagen and Audi are already SEMI members – both are founding members of the GAAC Europe chapter – and have become vocal champions and critical contributors to our efforts. When all stakeholders work together, I have no doubt that the future of automotive and mobility will continue to be bright. Interested in learning more about this topic? Read the full interview in Automotive Logistics Magazine, A Fab Future for the Automotive Sector. Please contact me at [email protected] for more information about SEMI’s Smart Mobility Initiative, the Global Automotive Advisory Council, and how SEMI can help your organization navigate electronics in the automotive industry to drive innovation in the mobility space. Bettina Weiss is Chief of Staff and Global Smart Mobility Lead at SEMI.

Connectivity. Electrification. Shared Mobility. Autonomous Driving. McKinsey Company cites these four disruptive trends behind future mobility — dynamics that could help to transform quality of life for hundreds of millions of people.McKinsey Company predicts that by 2030, mobility innovation could dynamically alter everything from safety in human locomotion to air quality, public spaces and power systems. Much the same way that tiny plankton in our oceans sustain aquatic animals, MEMS and sensors, while small, are crucial building blocks of integrated mobility.As partner at McKinsey Company, Andreas Breiter will explore this connection during his MSEC 2020 presentation, Future Mobility Enabled by Sensorization. SEMI recently caught up with Breiter to preview his October 7 talk at SEMI’s first virtual MEMS Sensors Executive Congress, October 6-8 and 13-15, 2020.Register now for MSEC 2020 and explore this topic with Breiter during the live Q A portion of his presentation.SEMI: You play a dual role at McKinsey Company, advising clients in advanced industries on capital investments and serving on the leadership team of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM). What is the relationship between them?Breiter: Mobility has become so much more than the auto sector. Today when we say future mobility, we’re talking about the convergence of many exciting developments influencing the ways that people and goods move around. Cars have become computers, and we now have to contemplate new frontiers, such as air taxis and electric vehicle infrastructure.Mobility is changing so quickly that it’s inspiring decision-makers from other market sectors to explore what implications it will have for them. We’re helping mining companies think about their haulers, retailers think about their footprints, and insurance companies plan for autonomous vehicles. The MCFM exists as a global think tank to focus on these frontier topics, helping to ensure we are ready for the future. During my MSEC presentation, I’ll explore how those future topics are influencing automotive mobility in the short- and long-term. The MCFM is even more forward-looking, so we’re just starting to build scenarios for what might come in 2040 and beyond.SEMI: How are changes in the mobility ecosystem affecting the automotive value chain?Breiter: In the past, the automotive value chain was clearly structured. We had sensor companies selling to Tier 1 suppliers, who would in turn sell to OEMs, who would sell directly to end customers.The value chain has grown more complex, however. In the future, we might see fleets of robotaxis, which will be owned by companies instead of by individual consumers. Already today, rideshare companies are game-changers because consumers can travel by car without owning one.Plus we see companies offer parts of the user experience such as user interfaces for automotive infotainment. In the past, everything in the car was branded by the OEM, but now we have third-party platforms that let us control some of our automotive infotainment options.SEMI: How are MEMS and sensors suppliers participating in this new value chain?Breiter: The pervasive use of sensors in cars has driven automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers to work directly with suppliers, whose close involvement eases the complexity of integration. Just think about the sensors used in autonomous driving. Getting that right is safety-critical.We’re also seeing suppliers go beyond the individual component level to provide complete systems-level solutions. Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) are a good example.SEMI: Automotive applications tends to have some of the longest design-to-delivery cycles in industry. Will this ever change?Breiter: The automotive product lifecycle was typically five-plus years, with a few years of development before that and continued service after the end of the lifecycle. That gives MEMS and sensors suppliers a 10+ year timeline on one model.With so much innovation taking place, this slow cycle won’t work forever. Over-the-air (OTA) updates, for example, enable new features when they become ready for deployment. I expect we’ll see OTA updates from many end manufacturers in coming years. SEMI: What changes do you foresee in ADAS and autonomous driving?Breiter: ADAS and autonomous features will become much more common. We’ve already witnessed this progression, with introductions first in premier models and later rolling out in more affordable vehicles. Lane-change assist and rear camera followed this path and are now pretty standard. Collision avoidance, as a safety-critical feature, is likely next in line for more widespread adoption.As for fully autonomous driving, consumers will accept that only when it becomes safer than a human driving a car.SEMI: Where is the greatest opportunity in the next five years?Breiter: Electrification of vehicles is number one. When it comes to engines, we’re moving from internal combustion to hybrid and then to electric. Since OEMs are adding sensors for the battery system, for battery management, and for electric motors, this progression represents growth opportunity for sensors suppliers – in particular for hybrid vehicles that contain both powertrain technologies.But that’s not all when it comes to sensors. Outside of powertrains, new sensors are added to enable a variety of functions, including, for example, ADAS and autonomy, as well as increased interior content, such as mood lighting.SEMI: Is there anything surprising coming, sensor-wise, in mobility?Breiter: To enable intelligent traffic systems, you need to make infrastructure smarter — which brings us to sensors. We’re going to see roads and other assets in infrastructure sense the state of traffic, sense what traffic participants are doing, and support connectivity between, for example, the infrastructure, vehicles on the ground, pedestrians on walkways and drones in the air.SEMI: What would you like MSEC attendees to take away from your presentation?Breiter: We’re living in a transformative era for the mobility industry. During the last 100 years of mobility, the ecosystem barely changed. In recent years, however, we’ve seen massive technological gains, largely enabled by semiconductors, MEMS and sensors. Instead of serving as just one of many suppliers, I’d encourage MSEC attendees to anticipate future mobility challenges so they can offer solutions to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers accordingly.For more information, visit McKinsey Center for Future Mobility. MEMS Sensors Industry Group® (MSIG), a SEMI technology community that connects the MEMS and sensors supply network in established and emerging markets, enables members to grow and prosper. Visit us today.Andreas Breiter leads McKinsey’s capital-investment work for advanced industries in North America as well as its Center for Future Mobility on the West Coast. In his advisory work, Breiter serves a broad range of companies in the automotive sector, including car and truck manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as companies in the utilities and renewables space. He helps executives make strategic choices around product development and helps companies stay ahead of emerging trends, such as autonomous driving, connectivity, electric vehicles, and shared mobility.Andreas holds a Ph.D. in Operations Management and studied in Germany, France, the U.S. and Canada.Nishita Rao is product marketing manager at SEMI.

MEMS sensors have come a long way over the past few decades. The late 1990’s brought us the mass production of both MEMS accelerometers for automotive air bag crash sensors and MEMS gyros for rollover detection and anti-locking braking systems (ABS). In the early 2000’s, MEMS sensors made the jump from automotive to mobile and consumer electronics, first with a MEMS microphone in the wildly successful Motorola RAZR phone and then with a MEMS accelerometer in the first Nintendo Wii remote.Following this initial period of MEMS’ commercialization, the timetable for the mass proliferation of both MEMS and non-MEMS sensors accelerated dramatically. Just take Apple iPhone. Released in 2007, the first iPhone had one MEMS accelerometer and one proximity sensor. Released 10 years later, iPhone X included four MEMS microphones, a barometer, three-axis gyro, MEMS accelerometer and proximity sensor, an ambient light sensor and an infrared (IR) sensor, a magnetometer, and multiple image sensors. For perspective’s sake, well over two billion iPhones have been sold since 2007, making iPhone a major growth-driver in MEMS. According to Yole Développement[i] (Yole), MEMS will generate $10.9 billion in revenue in 2020 alone (non-MEMS sensor revenue will be even higher), spanning automotive, consumer and mobile, Internet of Things (IoT), medical and healthcare, aerospace, industrial and other markets.With so much growth behind us, what’s ahead? Jens Fabrowsky, executive vice president of Automotive Electronics at Robert Bosch GmbH, will share his insights on the future of MEMS during his MSEC 2020 keynote, The Next 10 Years of MEMS: An Outlook on Opportunities and Challenges. I recently spoke with Fabrowsky to preview his October 15 presentation at SEMI’s first virtual MEMS Sensors Executive Congress, October 6-8 and 13-15, 2020. Register now for MSEC 2020 and explore this topic with Fabrowsky by participating in the Q A segment of his presentation.SEMI: What are some of the primary challenges facing the MEMS industry?Fabrowsky: Development costs for new generations of MEMS sensors are increasing, leading to several major shifts. To compensate for rising development costs and reduce risk, MEMS sensors suppliers are pursuing wider, diverse markets instead of just targeting high-volume applications. At the same time, end-device manufacturers are demanding greater product differentiation, but they don’t want to pay a premium for it or wait for new hardware iterations. To stay competitive, sensor suppliers are providing software solutions that support new features and functionality. That approach is more cost-effective and speeds design-to-production cycles. SEMI: What factors are increasing development costs for new MEMS sensors, and what can companies do to mitigate their R D risk? Fabrowsky: As with most electronic components, MEMS’ costs are driven by development and capital expenditures. The increasing complexity of the content, especially in interface ASICs and software, makes MEMS development a multidisciplinary feat, requiring several competencies across multiple design centers to meet ever-demanding timelines.Manufacturing also plays a role. We often see dedicated manufacturing lines built for new MEMS products, which stresses both investments and capacity planning. Working together as an industry, we can reduce risk and costs by applying the same manufacturing process to more than one generation of product, which will speed time to market, increase volumes and improve ROI. SEMI: To what degree will the COVID-19 pandemic continue to affect sensors suppliers?Fabrowsky: MEMS manufacturing flows have been affected by disruptions in the supply chain. While the benefits of multiple sourcing and more direct ownership of the flow itself (on-shoring, vertical integration) have helped us, no one in the industry can claim they are out of danger, especially if a new wave of contagion occurs. Our industry relies heavily on just-in-time manufacturing and logistics, and we are all watching for influences that could alter flow. The pandemic has reminded us all that an important competitive advantage is a predictable, secure supply — which also comes at a cost that the end customer must value. SEMI: Why and how are traditional hardware companies like Robert Bosch differentiating their platforms for end-device manufacturers? Fabrowsky: On-shoring was already a trend before the pandemic. We’ve always believed in and are still investing in our own manufacturing facilities. That includes the 12-inch ASIC fab in Dresden, Germany, where we expect to manufacture future generations of power and control electronics to satisfy the growing appetite for silicon that vehicle electrification demands.We think that one of our biggest differentiators is that our portfolio includes more than just components: Close collaboration with our internal partner divisions gives us comprehensive system know-how across the automotive supply chain. On the consumer-electronics side, we have extensive partnerships with makers of application processors, wireless systems, and sensor processing software. With this expertise behind us, we can provide flexible system-integration options to our end customers — who also benefit from a mature supply chain that supports high volumes and field-tested quality.SEMI: What does customer demand for software solutions mean for sensor suppliers and how will suppliers evolve to meet this need? Fabrowsky: In some silicon product business units, the R D effort to develop software is higher than the effort to design the hardware! Software is not only what’s needed on the application layer. It also runs the interface to the processors – the drivers. In addition, increasingly complex testing software ensures high yield and minimizes defects. On the application layer, we are increasingly using and promoting open-source platforms to encourage better collaboration throughout the ecosystem. In contrast, companies that charge fees to access their own proprietary software environments are missing the opportunity to remain competitive in the long run. SEMI: Why are end-device manufacturers looking for plug-and-play solutions instead of standalone devices? Fabrowsky: Consumers of electronic devices always want products with more features and lower prices. Their requirements produce a trickle-down effect that reaches all the way to component suppliers such as ourselves. This requires us to manage a healthy innovation pipeline, and to choose products and technologies that promise growth and high volumes. This isn’t always simple, however, and many times the component itself is not enough. Think of our Light Drive projector for Bosch Smartglasses. The only way we can hope to win designs in this market is by realizing a fully integrated module, with our own scanning mirrors and driver chips, as well as our integration of laser modules and the display system. This lets us offer an individually tested and calibrated end product ready for assembly.SEMI: What would you like MSEC 2020 attendees to take away from your presentation?Fabrowsky: We’ll be looking at what’s driving the next decade of MEMS applications. For example, the embedded computing inside the sensors, together with enhancements in integration, materials and packaging, will increase the pervasiveness of MEMS sensors and actuators as touchpoints between electronics and the physical world. This will create a new form of intimacy between us and the machines, which we call Artificial Empathy.To learn more about Bosch Smartglasses Light Drive and other MEMS advancements, register now for MSEC 2020.Robert Bosch GmbH is a longtime member of MEMS Sensors Industry Group® (MSIG), a SEMI technology community that connects the MEMS and sensors supply network in established and emerging markets, enabling members to grow and prosper. Visit us today.Jens Fabrowsky began his more than 20-year career at Bosch Group as department head responsible for hydraulic units in the Blaichach plant, Germany Chassis Systems division, in 1999. He soon moved onto technical plant manager and later to plant manager within the company’s Germany Gasoline systems division. He has held the role of executive vice president, Automotive Electronics at Robert Bosch GmbH, since April 2012. Fabrowsky studied mechanical engineering and industrial engineering at the University of Stuttgart (Germany) and the Technical University of Munich (Germany). [i] Status of the MEMS Industry report, Yole Développement, 2020.Nishita Rao is product marketing manager at SEMI.

As the amount of electronics in automobiles continues to increase, it is becoming more common to hear a vehicle referred to as a “computer on wheels.” To that end, innovation occurs at the intersection of automotive and microelectronics so that leveraging synergies and contemplating joint initiatives becomes crucial in shaping the future of both fields. In this two-part article, we will discuss the current trends in the automotive industry, which are to a large extent driven by microelectronics, and will reflect on the transition from “just the vehicle” to “the mobility ecosystem.”SEMI encourages its members to partner in seizing opportunities in safe, efficient, and convenient mobility solutions. Before diving into specific opportunities that the automotive industry offers to electronics companies, we will start by taking a closer look at this sector and the current trends.Automotive or Mobility? Shaping the New EcosystemThe automotive industry and its supply chain of vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers has been evolving for decades around the sales of vehicles. The customer groups used to be fairly well established with individual consumers and commercial entities, the latter often as fleets. The automotive industry has grown in depth by vertically integrating design, manufacturing, sales, service, accessories, etc. More recently, the traditional players have also begun to venture into mobility services such as car sharing, showing their ambitions to become “mobility providers.”The term “mobility” has been used increasingly instead of “automotive” for about a decade now. This reflects the more recent transition to creating businesses and functionalities around the sales of miles. In line with this, the industry’s perspective is also shifting toward use-cases and experience rather than just focusing on the vehicle or plain transportation. Much of this transition from “vehicles to miles” is driven by key trends that require massive use of microelectronics, in particular autonomous driving and electric vehicles.One of the key questions to raise for SEMI members is: at which stages should the supply chains for the microelectronics and mobility industries interact with one another to shape the evolving ecosystem? In order to answer this question, we will examine the four main trends shaping the future of mobility represented in the acronym “ACES”: Autonomous, Connected, Electric, Shared.ACES – Autonomous, Connected, Electric, SharedThese four trends, together with the broader transition from “vehicle to miles,” also include newcomers “disrupting” the industry and changing it for good. Basically, every mobility player, traditional or new, is taking ACES (or CASE) into consideration at the moment.Autonomy: computers are taking over the task of driving from humans, first through advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and then at some point with complete self-driving. Following the levels of automation from zero to five, as defined by SAE International[1], the current market frontier is SAE Level 2, which means the vehicle can under certain situations (e.g. highway) drive itself but has to be monitored by the driver at all times. Many industry experts assume that artificial intelligence and computing power hold the key to higher levels of automation.Connectivity: vehicles are increasingly exchanging data with a central hub and with one another through cellular, WiFi, satellite, etc. At present, there are mostly entertainment and convenience offerings on the market, but maintenance and safety functionalities are emerging. One key differentiation between solutions is whether connectivity is “built-in” with embedded OEM solutions, “brought-in” (e.g. smartphone apps independent of vehicle or dashboard navigation systems), or “tethered” (e.g. smartphone used as communication gateway).Electrification: traditional mechanical and fossil-fuel-powered vehicle driveline components are increasingly being replaced by electrical components. The spectrum includes hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in HEV (PHEV), battery-based electric vehicles (EV), and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCV). The transition from traditional to electrified driveline technology requires more and more diverse electronics, such as more control systems, sensors and high-voltage systems. Ultimately though, the transition requires fewer systems, i.e. ignition, injection and multiple other systems being replaced by high-voltage power electronics and battery monitoring.Sharing: a growing number of consumers are seeking convenient access to mobility to get “from A to B” while viewing vehicle ownership as a burden rather than a benefit. Typical forms of this trend include car-sharing, ride-sharing, ride-hailing, micro-mobility, and micro-transit. Mobile computing enables much of the convenience that shared mobility offers, such as instant access, competitive and convenient payments, and flexible work opportunities (i.e. “gig economy”). Therefore, electronics, connectivity, and computing all play an important role in this trend.SEMI as the Natural Convener for Industry Exchange and ProgressClearly, for all four of the ACES trends, microelectronics play a crucial role in driving mobility innovation and making future solutions safe, efficient, and convenient. Based on this, mobility represents one of the largest opportunities for semiconductors: by 2025[2], a projected 14% of all integrated circuits produced globally will go into vehicles. As the trade association representing the complete microelectronics manufacturing and design supply chain, SEMI is positioned as a natural convener of experts for cross-industry and pre-competitive exchanges with the automotive supply chain. This positioning led to the foundation of the Smart Mobility initiative at SEMI, in part, to facilitate collaboration across these increasingly interdependent supply chains. The second part of this blog will present opportunities for electronics based on the ACES trends in the automotive industry, along with an overview of the Smart Mobility initiative.[1] © SAE International from SAE J3016™ Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles (2018-06-05), https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/ (retrieved 05/5/2020)[2] Source: IC InsightsMicroelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 2: Opportunities for ElectronicsBettina Weiss is Chief of Staff and Global Smart Mobility Lead at SEMI. Sven Beiker is Smart Mobility Consultant at SEMI.

It’s official.The first autonomous vehicle has been verified for operation on the open road in Asia with no traffic restrictions. And this is no corner case, flash-in-the-pan technology. The white 4-door minivan’s modular software can be integrated into all manner of vehicles including cars, trucks and buses. More promising still, the minivan – proven roadworthy after more than 1,300 miles of testing – will lead not only to an upgrade of Taiwan’s automobile electronics industry but to groundbreaking smart transportation service models.Imagine, for example, hopping a driverless shuttle to the hottest attractions in Hsinchu City, Taiwan such as Big City, Hsinchu Cheng Huang Temple, 19 Hectares Grassland, 17KM Coastline Scenic Area and Siangshan Wetland. The autonomous ride could become another transportation option sooner than you think.“We have every intent to make available self-driving sightseeing shuttle services soon,” said Chih-Chien Lin, mayor of Hsinchu City. “The services will be our first step to substantially improving the traffic flow, highlighting the unlimited applications associated with autonomous vehicles.”Bearing the license plate number Taiwan No.0001 – the first issued for an autonomous vehicle in Taiwan – the minivan is an early but important advance in the region’s autonomous-driving technologies under a new initiative led by the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), which developed the test vehicle’s software, and the Hsinchu City government. SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha joined Hsinchu City mayor Chih-Chien Lin and ITRI vice president Pei-Zen Chang to promote the initiative at SEMICON Taiwan 2019 in the run-up to its launch during an October 22nd press conference in Hsinchu City. Taiwan luminaries attending the press conference were (L-R in photo below) Terry Tsao, SEMI Chief Marketing Officer and SEMI Taiwan President; Jwu-Sheng Hu, Vice President and General Director, ITRI Mechanical and Mechatronics Systems Research Laboratories; Der-Sheng Lin, Deputy Director General, MOEA Department of Industrial Technology; Chih-Chien Lin, Mayor of Hsinchu City; Pei-Zen Chang, Vice President, ITRI. ITRI and Hsinchu City government officials kick off the next phase of Taiwan’s smart transportation initiative in an October press conference near Nanliao Fishing Harbor, Hsinchu City. “This milestone in self-driving technology is a shining example of public-private partnerships in action to advance smart mobility and dovetails with SEMI's work building communities consisting of the automotive and microelectronics industries, government, and academia for collaborative innovation,” said Terry Tsao, SEMI chief marketing officer and SEMI Taiwan President. “We are thrilled to have joined ITRI and the Taiwan government in promoting the extraordinary power of technology to make automobiles and cities smarter.”Emmy Yi is a marketing specialist at SEMI Taiwan.

A short trip to Monterey, California provided an exciting glimpse into what is in store for the future. Along with 550 attendees and 60 exhibitors, I took a quick visit through the aisles and conference venue to find several exciting developments this year!So many exciting new products are on the horizon. Dr. Peter G. Hartwell, CTO of InvenSense, A TDK Group Company, provided a view future of the way sensors including optical, audio, balance, direction, location, and chemical will provide improvements over human capabilities. A glimpse into our future experiences with a 360-view winter wonderland experience of riding a snow mobile using two 180°C fisheye lens cameras with his presentation “Sensors: Where Reality Meets Virtual.” The only warning was that with so many cameras and social media privacy is lost!Dr. Hans Stork, CTO, ON Semiconductor discussed some of the recent investigations his company has made on the many LiDAR sensors. He enlightened listeners with more details of the optical/LiDAR Fusion with FUSE ONE that was unveiled at CES 2019. Future cars will have a combination of cameras, LiDAR, radar, and ultrasonics. No one sensor has it all. There are many companies offering LiDAR for automotive applications, but the products are still too expensive and the market will shake out over the next few years. Douglas Hackler, CEO, American Semiconductor presented the company’s achievement in flip chip on flex circuit assembly for a variety of applications, including pharmaceuticals, wearable wristbands, and IoT communications. Interconnects supported include ACA, ACF, advanced z-axis materials, and low temperature solder. He also described flexible hybrid electronics using printed electronics and a wafer CSP assembly for sensors. With this operation located in Idaho, products can be assembled in the U.S. Jean-Charles Souriau from CEA-Leti described the organization’s detailed research in developing in flip chip assembly on a flexible label with a thin die. A gold stud bump flip chip and thermo-compression bonding with glue is used to attach the die to a flex substrate. A polymer fabricated on thin glass was also demonstrated. Clearly, much progress has been made in flexible printed electronics in the last year with many presentations describing progress. Results of a benchmark study conducted at Cal Poly examined some of the key developments in bump materials and interconnect methods. Key areas such as antennas, batteries, PV and energy harvesting, a variety of sensors, and audio technology were investigated. Dr. Pradeep Lall presented work examining developments in conductive inks for 3D printed electronics.Dr. Subu Iyer and his student, Arsalan Alam, of UCLA presented some exciting research on heterogeneously integrated foldable display on elastomeric substrate, FlexTrate™, using vertically corrugated interconnects. This can be considered fan-out wafer level packaging. The work holds much promise for applications including foldable displays, wireless powered systems and surface electromyography systems. Fine pitch ≤40 micron interconnects bendable to 1 mm bending radius passed more than 6,000 bending cycles. Dr. Mark Poliks of Binghamton University described their work on the development of a wearable flexible hybrid electronics ECG monitor. While the work is in the early stages, human trials will soon begin and the results look promising. New materials will be key in the future products. Reliability test data was also presented on aerosol-jet printed traces on Upilex-S, including tensile, peel and bend testing, as well as “healing” of the damage. New product introductions included U.K’s Peratech’s EDGE force-sensing solution targeted form smartphones, wearables, and tablets. In this HMI solution, Peratech’s thin sensors are mechanically integrated into key areas of the smartphone to capture a user’s natural single-handed grip, ergonomic finger movements, intuitive pressure sand squeezes to control key functions. It even works with the users has wet hands or is wearing gloves! This eliminates the need for physical button openings and allows the implementation of a thinner, more contoured device with a rigid-metal chassis. Next year’s event will be in San Jose during the last week of February. Stay tuned to SEMI’s website for more details.Jan Vardaman is president and founder of TechSearch International, Inc., which has provided market research and technology trend analysis in semiconductor packaging since 1987. She is the co-author of How to Make IC Packages (by Nikkan Kogyo Shinbunsha), a columnist with Printed Circuit Design Fab/Circuits Assembly, and the author of numerous publications on emerging trends in semiconductor packaging and assembly. She is a senior member of IEEE EPS and is an IEEE EPS Distinguished Lecturer as well as a member of SEMI, SMTA, IMAPS, and MEPTEC.