forecast

SEMI kicked off 2025 by hosting its annual Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) gathering industry executives, government leaders, and research institutions to share insights on current and near-term business and market dynamics. Over the course of two and a half days, this key forum also provided valuable networking opportunities to foster collaboration.The event theme, Ready. Set. Ramp! aligns with the industry's goal of reaching $1T by 2030. While there is uncertainty due to global trade tensions, supply chain challenges, and talent shortages, AI-driven opportunities are proving to be a major growth driver. Another key highlight was the advanced packaging panel that reinforced the value of hybrid bonding and 3D device architectures playing a critical role in supporting AI and next-generation chips. The overarching sentiment from the event was that it's an exciting time to be in semiconductors, with unprecedented transformation and opportunities ahead. Collaboration across the industry is essential to overcoming technical challenges and accelerating innovation.SEMI leaders had the opportunity to speak with Francoise von Trapp of 3D InCites at the conclusion of ISS. Listen to the podcast to hear highlights from Joe Stockunas, President of SEMI Americas, along with market updates from SEMI’s Market Intelligence team members, with Inna Skvortsova covering semiconductor equipment and Christian Dieseldorff speaking on fab expansions. Looking aheadSEMI has many conferences and exhibitions scheduled throughout the year with opportunities for insights and networking. For the SEMI Americas region, don't miss the inaugural SEMIExpo Heartland on April 1-2 in Indianapolis, Indiana. SEMI is excited to host this event in the burgeoning Midwest U.S. region that is already seeing increased activity and opportunity for semiconductors, especially in areas around automotive electronics, smart manufacturing, machine learning, AI and workforce development. The expo is poised to spur collaboration among industry, government, and academia.A key change to note for Americas events this year is that SEMICON West is taking place in Phoenix, Arizona on Oct. 7-9. With over $100B in investments in motion, the greater Phoenix area is a growing manufacturing hub in the Southwest. There is already a lot of buzz and excitement with a sold-out venue and over 400 speakers lined up for the 3-day event. SEMICON West will return to San Francisco in October 2026 and will alternate between these two locations every other year through 2030.ResourcesPress Release: Eighteen New Semiconductor Fabs to Start Construction in 2025, SEMI ReportsPress Release: Global Total Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast to Reach a Record of $139 Billion in 2026, SEMI ReportsSEMI Market Intelligence ReportsSEMI ISS 2025: Ready, Set, Ramp! by Dean Freeman, 3D InCitesSEMI ContactSherrie Gutierrez, Marketing Communications ManagerEmail: [email protected]

Tracking toward even stronger growth than forecast last year, 200mm fabs worldwide are gearing up to add more than 600,000 wafers per month from 2017 through 2022, an 11 percent growth rate that will lead to a new high of 6 million wafers per month by the end of 2022, according to the SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group in its fourth update of the Global 200mm Fab Outlook report. See chart below. All told, 56 older and newer facilities will add capacity, with the MEMS, power, logic and foundry segments contributing the most. To help meet rising demand, new fabs are under construction. Only six facilities plan to reduce capacity. The global 200mm fab count will increase from the 2017 level of the 194 fabs covered in the report to 203 by 2022. See chart. During the five-year forecast period, China, at 44 percent, is expected to account for the greatest growth, followed by Southeast Asia (19 percent), Taiwan (10 percent) and the Americas (8 percent). However, with strong demand for new 200mm fab equipment, the used 200mm fab equipment market has pretty much dried up. What’s more, the availability of key tools and spare parts has become a primary concern for many device makers. These headwinds notwithstanding, many companies remain bullish with plans to add more capacity. The forecast growth of 600,000 wafers per month may ultimately be a conservative estimate. SEMI’s Global 200mm Fab Outlook report lists more than 300 facilities and lines managed by more than 150 companies, providing details on product type, investment, technology and capacity plans by companies and fabs. The fourth update of the Global 200mm Fab Outlook report covers data and predictions from 2011 through the end of 2022, including milestones, detailed investments by quarter, product types, technology nodes and capacities down to fab and project level. Click here for the Global 200mm Fab Outlook Sample Report. Learn more about other SEMI fab databases at www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase. Christian G. Dieseldorff is director of Industry Research and Statistics, SEMI, Milpitas, California.

Forecast SummariesCharts 1 and 2 are the recent world growth forecasts for this year and next for GDP (World Bank), Electronic Equipment and Printed Wiring Boards (Custer Consulting Group), Semiconductors (SIA/WSTSI and new Semiconductor Capital Equipment (SEMI). The semiconductor-related sectors are clearly outgrowing the rest of the supply chain. These forecasts require regular review considering the current global political uncertainty and potential industry output and trade disruptions.Updates to these forecasts are regularly available.Taiwan Wafer Fab SalesComposite sales of 14 Taiwan-listed wafer fabs including TSMC and UMC dipped sharply in June. This sales composite has been historically a useful leading indicator for global semiconductor shipments (Chart 3). If wafer fab sales remain weak, they may signal an imminent chip slowdown. These data are updated monthly.Wafer Fab, Semiconductor and SEMI Capital Equipment Business CyclesChart 4 compares the 3/12 growth of global semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment to Taiwan-listed wafer fabs. Watch this information over the next few months to see if the wafer fab dip is temporary or leads semiconductor and SEMI equipment down to slower growth. Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics [email protected]