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SEMI Releases latest update to World Fab Forecast with adjusted semiconductor revenue consensus for second-half 2018 and 2019 Global semiconductor revenue in 2018 is now expected to reach $473.8 billion and clock a growth rate of 15 percent, a significant upward revision from the 7.5 percent expansion (to $442.9 billion) forecast at the start of the year by six research and investment forecasts tracked by SEMI Industry Research and Statistics (SEMI IR S). Data center growth will remain robust in the coming quarters, fueling demand for memory devices. In addition, cloud computing will continue to spur strong CPU, GPU, networking, ASIC, and DRAM and NAND demand through 2019, driving a consensus 3.63 percent year-to-year growth to reach the semiconductor revenue of $491 billion in 2019. Fab equipment spending (new and used) for 2018 is expected to increase by 14 percent to a record high of $63 billion, according to the last data from the SEMI World Fab Forecast, published by SEMI IR S. For 2019, fab equipment spending (new and used) is expected to increase 8 percent to another record of just under $68 billion. Memory continues to be the biggest swing factor in fab spending in 2018 and is expected to lead growth into 2020. 3D NAND will see the most capacity added in 2018 and 2019 with growth of 41 percent in 2018 and 27 percent in 2019, according to the SEMI World Fab Forecast. DRAM investment will see even stronger growth in 2018 and 2019 driven by new capacity addition as well as the continued technology shrink towards 1y/1z nm. For the first half of 2018, global spending for semiconductor fab equipment continues its growth momentum from 2017. Though we expect some softness in the second half of 2018, the outlook for 2019 remains robust with a fourth consecutive year of growth – the first such run since the 1990s. This prolonged growth cycle has been propelled by memory and will be extended by significant investment in China in 2019. Although a potential slowdown in 2020 is a concern, the overall outlook for semiconductor demand remains solid due to broad-based growth trends in data center, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML), automotive, and industrial segments. Following are other SEMI forecasts for fab spending. Installed Capacity 3D NAND will see the most capacity added in both 2018 and 2019 with growth of 41 percent in 2018 and 27 percent in 2019. Foundry capacity growth is steady at 3 percent in 2018 and 6 percent in 2019, driven by both leading-edge and trailing-edge capacity buildup. 200mm fab capacity will increase 4 percent in 2018 and 3 percent in 2019, fueled by demand for MCU, sensors, PMIC, MOSFET and Driver IC. New Facilities / Construction Spending In 2018, there are 72 construction projects with investments totaling $15 billion, a year-over-year increase of 23 percent. Construction spending will reach all-time highs with China continuing its lead at US$7 billion in 2018, shattering its own record of $6.3 billion investment in 2017. Most construction spending in 2018 will be for Memory (just under $9 billion), primarily for 3D NAND followed by DRAM. Foundry will log second place in construction spending at just under $5 billion. Fab Equipment Spending Fab equipment spending (new and used) for 2018 is expected to jump 14 percent to a record high of US$63 billion, flat from the forecast issued in June 2018. Equipment spending (new and used) for 2019 is expected to increase 8 percent to another record of just under US$68 billion, a downward adjustment from +9 percent published in June 2018. We believe equipment spending will remain healthy, driven by solid, broad-based demand and predictable technology investments on top of constructive SEMICAP equipment fundamentals. Activity Report The August report features 1,265 records including about 300 Opto- and LED-related facilities. We have made 223 changes related to 216 fabs/lines. The modifications include the addition of new records, changes to existing records, the deletion of records since the February 2018 World Fab Forecast report. We are tracking 103 future facilities/lines with various probabilities that will start volume production in 2018 or later. Download a sample report Not a subscriber? Please review SEMI fab databases listed below. Our databases deliver the latest forecast and a complete analysis of front-end fabs and foundries worldwide. They are ideal resources to empower your market research. Eugenia Liu is a Senior Product Marketing Manager at SEMI.
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With artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly evolving, look for applications like voice recognition and image recognition to get more efficient, more affordable, and far more common in a variety of products over the next few years. This growth in applications will drive demand for new architectures that deliver the higher performance and lower power consumption required for widespread AI adoption. “The challenge for AI at the edge is to optimize the whole system-on-a-chip architecture and its components, all the way to semiconductor technology IP blocks, to process complex AI workloads quickly and at low power,” says Qualcomm Technologies Senior Director of Engineering Evgeni Gousev, who will provide an update on the progress of AI at the edge in a Data and AI program at SEMICON West, July 10-12 in San Francisco. Qualcomm Snapdragon 845 uses heterogeneous computing across the CPU, GPU, and DSP for power-efficient processing for constantly evolving AI models. Source: QualcommA system approach that optimizes across hardware, software, and algorithms is necessary to deliver the ultra-low power – to a sub 1-milliwatt level, low enough to enable always-on machine vision processing – for the usually energy-intensive AI computing. From the chip architecture perspective, processing AI workloads with the most appropriate engine, such as the CPU, GPU, and DSP with dedicated hardware acceleration, provides the best power efficiency – and flexibility for dealing with rapidly changing AI models and growing diversity of applications.“So far it’s been largely a brute force approach using conventional architectures and cloud-based infrastructure,” says Evgeni. “But we’re going to run out of brute force options, so future opportunities lie in developing innovative architectures, dedicated hardware, new algorithms, and new software. Innovation will be especially important for AI at the edge and applications requiring always-on functionality. Training is mostly in the cloud now, but in the near future it will start migrating to the device as the algorithms and hardware improve. AI at the edge will also remove some privacy concerns, an increasingly important issue for data collection and management.”Practical AI applications at the edge where resources are constrained run the gamut, spanning smartphones, drones, autonomous vehicles, virtual reality, augmented reality and smart home solutions such as connected cameras. “More AI on the edge will create a huge opportunity for the whole ecosystem – chip designers, semiconductor and device manufacturers, applications developers, and data and service providers. And it’s going to make a significant impact on the way we work, live, and interact with the world around us,” Evgeni said.Future generations of chips may need more disruptive systems-level change to handle high data volumes with low power A next-generation solution for handling the massive proliferation of AI data could be a nanotechnology system, such as the collaborative N3XT (Nano-Engineered Computing Systems Technology) project, led by H.S. Philip Wong and Subhasish Mitra at Stanford. “Even with next-generation scaling of transistors and new memory chips, the bottlenecks in moving data in and out of memory for processing will remain,” says Mitra, another speaker in the SEMICON West program. “The true benefits of nanotechnology will only come from new architectures enabled by nanosystems. One thing we are certain of is that massively more capable and more energy-efficient systems will be necessary for almost any future application, so we will need to think about system-level improvements.” Major improvement in handling high volumes of data with low high energy use will require system-level improvements, such as monolithic 3D integration of carbon nanotube transistors in the multi-campus N3XT chip research effort. Source: Stanford UniversityThat means carbon nanotube transistors for logic, high density non-volatile MRAM and ReRAM for memory, fine-grained monolithic 3D for integration, new architectures for computation immersed in memory, and new materials for heat removal. “The N3XT approach is key for the 1000X energy efficiency needed,” says Mitra.Researchers have demonstrated improvements in all these areas, including multiple hardware nanosystem prototypes targeting AI applications. The researchers have transferred multiple layers of as-grown carbon nanotubes to the target wafer to significantly improve CNT density and have also developed a low-power TiN/HfOx/Pt ReRAM. The low-temperature CNT and ReRAM processes enable multiple vertical layers to be grown on top of one another for ultra-dense and fine-grained monolithic 3D integration. Other speakers at the Data and AI TechXpot include Fram Akiki, VP Electronics, Siemens; Hariharan Ananthanarayanan, motion planning engineer, Osaro; and David Haynes, Sr. director, strategic marketing, Lam Research. See SEMICONWest.org.Paula Doe, SEMI
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