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Back in 2012, China ranked fifth among seven regions worldwide in IC wafer capacity but surged past the Americas and Japan in 2018 and 2019 to claim the number three position (figure 1). That’s a big deal given that ICs account for the largest share of wafer capacity excluding discrete, opto, MEMS and sensors.China’s IC wafer capacity growth accelerated to tune of 14% in 2019 and 21% in 2020 and is expected to grow at least 17% this year, as we report in the latest update of the World Fab Forecast, published December 3rd by SEMI. Of all regions, Taiwan boasts the second strongest growth rate over the same period at 3% to 4%.Figure 1: Total IC installed wafer capacity for top five regions The report shows that from 2019 through the end of 2021 China will have increased wafer capacity for memory by 95%, foundry by 47% and analog by 29%. Foundry will represent the largest portion of those gains, reaching 2 million wpm (200mm equivalents). Memory will follow at about 1.5 million wpm and then analog at over 120,000 wpm.But Chinese companies aren’t pulling off this feat singlehandedly. Many international companies are contributing to the wafer capacity increases in China (figure 2). Figure 2: IC wafer capacity in China by company origin The share of capacity contributed by Chinese-owned companies and international companies has changed little since 2012, though Chinese-owned companies saw a slight dip in their slice of the pie from 60% to 57%From 2019 through 2021, Chinese-owned companies will add almost 60% capacity for foundries, the most of all sectors. Companies including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Nexchip, XMC and Hua Li Microelectronics are driving the increases.During the same period, Chinese-owned companies will ramp up memory capacity from basically zero to 300,000 wpm. Companies such as Yangtze Memory Technology and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), also known as Innotron, are powering the quick rise with aggressive ramps of 3D NAND and DRAM capacity.Among international-owned companies, TSMC and UMC are driving the largest share of foundry growth, while Samsung, SK Hynix and Intel are powering gains in memory capacity.More information is available in the World Fab Forecast report. The report currently collects information for fab equipment and construction investment, capacities, technologies and product types for over 280 fabs and lines in China alone, including 40 facilities that either began operation in 2020 or will from 2021 through 2024.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.

This year, SEMI ISS covered it all – from a high-level semiconductor market and global geopolitical overview down to the neuro morphic and quantum level. Here are key takeaways from the Day 1 keynote and Economic Trends and Market Perspectives presentations.In the opening keynote, Anne Kelleher from Intel pointed to the huge growth of data, with fabs collecting more than 5 billion sensor data points each day. The challenge, Kelleher noted, is to turn massive amounts of data into valuable information. Moore’s law is not dead. New models of computing benefit still from Moore’s law and advances in Si/CMOS technologies for conventional, deep learning, neuro morphic and quantum computing.With customers expecting continual improvements in applications, the question is whether the chip industry is moving fast enough to meet these expectations, Kelleher said. A broad supply chain, equipment and materials innovations, and attracting the “best of the best” college graduates to fuel innovation is key, she said.In the economic trends session, Nicholas Burns (ambassador ret.) from Harvard University pointed out that we will see a major shift in power. The U.S. will remain the major world power over the next 10 years, but we will see a major shift in power in the next coming decades as the gap with countries like China, Russia and India continues to narrow.Duncan Meldrum from Hilltop Economics said that we are passing the peak growth of economic cycle. He warns that a more likely outlook is that a global growth recession is developing. Although semiconductor MSI growth will see a noticeable slowdown in 2019 and 2020, the semiconductor industry is still healthy over the longer term.Bob Johnson from Gartner sees demand shifting from consumer to commercial applications with higher ROIs and budgets. AI, IoT and 5D are the major enablers. He sees structural changes in the semiconductor industry especially for memory but also for Moore’s law with increasing costs and fewer players.The DRAM markets shows volatility and NAND market may be negative in 2019 but non-memory are expected to accelerate mainly because of increasing content and some price hikes.Overall Gartner expects good long-term growth with a CAGR (2017 to 2022) of 5.1%, outpacing 2011 to 2016 CAGR of 2.6%. After a strong 2018 with 13.4% revenue, he forecasts a slower 2019 with 2.6% growth followed by a 8% growth in 2020 and negative growth rate in 2021.Andrea Lati of VLSI went “Back to fundamentals” in his presentation about the industry. VLSI sees a downside bias due to slowing global economy, tariffs, and trade wars. Future drivers are data economy, cloud, AI and automotive.As memory leads the 2019 slowdown, analog, power, logic and other sectors remain in positive territory. VLSI lowered its semiconductor equipment forecast for 2018 from 20% (Jan. 2018) to 14% (Dec. 2018) but increased its sales outlook from 8% to 15% in 2018. VLSI expects revenue to slow into the first half of 2019 but increase to over 4% in the second half of the year, resulting in total 2019 drop of 2.7%. Semiconductor equipment sales are expected to drop from 14% in 2018 to -10% in 2019.Michael Corbett of Linz Consulting, covering wafer fab materials in the years of 3D scaling, sees these as good times for the industry. His outlook for wafer fab materials is bullish based on strong MSI and because wafer fab materials suppliers are getting bigger because of M As.In the Market Perspective session, Sujeet Chand of Rockwell Automation pointed out that as more and more data is generated, the problem is how to get value of all the data collected. There is a need to create the right architecture for machine learning and AI and big data is increasingly being replaced by contextual/structured data. He expects Industry 4.0 to drive foundries to become smaller, more flexible and more productive.In the Technology and Manufacturing session, Aki Sekiguchi of TEL addressed process challenges in the age of co-optimization. The semiconductor industry continues to expand, driven by massive growth of interconnected devices, with heavy demand for processing power and storage. He expects an exponential increase of data from about 40ZB in 2018 to 50ZB in 2020 to 163 ZB in 2026.Major technologies such as DRAM, 3D NAND and logic are dealing with scaling challenges. The density of DRAM (Mb/chip) is plateauing according to 2015 to 2020 trend data, with DRAM is in need of EUV. Memory capacity demand is leading to increasing layers and higher aspect ratios that is concern for 3D NAND and mainly for plasma etch. With Logic already implementing 3D structures, it appears to be in a solid position. Buddy Nicoson of Micron talked about his 50 years in the industry and looked ahead to the next 50. The anchors – quality, cost, scale and speed – won’t change. It has been a great journey so far with unprecedented opportunities and challenges ahead of us. We are getting into a convergence (specialization, integration) and solution-based phase. We will see some inflection points in the coming years, with the best yet to come.Christian G. Dieseldorff is senior principal analyst in the Industry Research and Analysis group at SEMI in Milpitas, California.

Micron, one of the top three memory semiconductor companies, reported solid results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 (June to August) to extend a multi-quarter string of strong growth. However, the company’s mediocre guidance for the current quarter has raised concerns that memory demand will start to slow.To shed light on this super memory cycle, which began in the second half of 2016, this article examines correlations among the top three memory suppliers’ sales revenue, quarterly inventory levels, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) market data, and memory fab equipment investments reported by SEMI.The Memory Inventory Cycle Index, which is based on financial data reported by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, is the difference between the year-over-year growth rates of sales (or shipments) and inventories. The index explains business cycle fluctuations such as expansions and contractions, trending up in expansions and declining in contractions. Figure 1 shows both historical Micron sales (blue dotted line) and the quarterly Memory Inventory Cycle Index (black solid line). To minimize seasonal fluctuations, both were calculated based on a four-quarter moving average of sales and inventories. Figure 1. Memory Inventory Cycle Index Compared to Memory Sales* Remarks1) Memory Inventory Cycle Index = YoY growth rate of memory sales revenues - YoY growth rate of memory total inventoris value on a four quarters moving average.2) Calculated memory sales and inventoris are based on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron public announcements.3) South Korea Won were converted to US$ based on the quaterly average value released by FRED.4) Companies’ sales data were calculated based on 4-quarter moving average.5) Company data complied by SEMI. As shown in Figure 1, the Memory Inventory Cycle Index has been declining since peaking in the fourth quarter of 2017, mirroring the previous two contractions – in 2010 and 2014 – in which memory sales slowed or stagnated after four quarters of the index decline. Accordingly, if this relationship holds between the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and sales, Micron’s sales will slow in the coming quarters and is consistent with Micron’s guidance for the current quarter. Moreover, the index suggests that the sum of three companies’ sales (the solid red line) will exhibit a similar trend of decreased growth in the coming quarters, which will impact the annual growth rate of global memory sales.WSTS recently increased its 2018 forecast for memory sales to 30.5%, up from 26.5% projected in June of this year. However, the 3-month moving average of memory sales shows that memory sales already increased by 48% YoY in the first half of the year, which means growth is expected to be lower in the second half of the year. Other signs pointing to a weaker end to the year include front-end equipment investments by the top three memory suppliers. SEMI is modeling an annual increase of only one percent for the year for these suppliers, with spending down 23% in the second half relative to the first half of the year.Figure 2 shows the historical trend of the Memory Inventory Cycle Index, the YoY growth rate of memory sales, and YoY memory fab equipment investments. The Memory Inventory Cycle Index increased faster than memory sales and fab equipment investments in the past two cycles. In the most recent memory cycle, these three indexes are moving in tandem, each peaking in the fourth quarter of 2017. Figure 2. Memory Inventory Cycle Index, Memory Sales and Memory Fab Equipment Investments* Remarks1) Both sales and memory fab equipment investments data were calculated based on 4-quarter moving average to minimize seasonal fluctuation.2) All data are from SEMI, except memory sales (WSTS) While overall memory sales continue to be strong this year, memory ASPs have shown signs of weakening right after the inventory index peak. NAND flash ASPs have been trending downward since the first quarter of 2018. With the recent inventory correction and short-term CPU shortage, DRAM ASPs are expected to soften in the fourth quarter of 2018. The looming memory market slowdown has memory makers adjusting their capacity expansion plans for the rest of this year. Some new capacity additions, especially for DRAM, have been pushed out to 2019. The memory inventory cycle index has to some extent foretold the slowdown of the memory market. In the second and final part of this article, we will discuss the correlation between the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and China’s semiconductor sales and Purchasing Managers Index. We will also look at the increasing level of memory inventory in the past few quarters and its composition including Work-in-Progress and Finished goods. Clark Tseng is director and Sungho Yoon is senior market research analyst in Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. SEMI World Fab ForecastFor the latest worldwide memory fabs forecast including company details, please see the SEMI World Fab Forecast. The report includes quarter-to-quarter fab data from planning to production for both DRAM and NAND Flash companies.

Tracking toward even stronger growth than forecast last year, 200mm fabs worldwide are gearing up to add more than 600,000 wafers per month from 2017 through 2022, an 11 percent growth rate that will lead to a new high of 6 million wafers per month by the end of 2022, according to the SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group in its fourth update of the Global 200mm Fab Outlook report. See chart below. All told, 56 older and newer facilities will add capacity, with the MEMS, power, logic and foundry segments contributing the most. To help meet rising demand, new fabs are under construction. Only six facilities plan to reduce capacity. The global 200mm fab count will increase from the 2017 level of the 194 fabs covered in the report to 203 by 2022. See chart. During the five-year forecast period, China, at 44 percent, is expected to account for the greatest growth, followed by Southeast Asia (19 percent), Taiwan (10 percent) and the Americas (8 percent). However, with strong demand for new 200mm fab equipment, the used 200mm fab equipment market has pretty much dried up. What’s more, the availability of key tools and spare parts has become a primary concern for many device makers. These headwinds notwithstanding, many companies remain bullish with plans to add more capacity. The forecast growth of 600,000 wafers per month may ultimately be a conservative estimate. SEMI’s Global 200mm Fab Outlook report lists more than 300 facilities and lines managed by more than 150 companies, providing details on product type, investment, technology and capacity plans by companies and fabs. The fourth update of the Global 200mm Fab Outlook report covers data and predictions from 2011 through the end of 2022, including milestones, detailed investments by quarter, product types, technology nodes and capacities down to fab and project level. Click here for the Global 200mm Fab Outlook Sample Report. Learn more about other SEMI fab databases at www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase. Christian G. Dieseldorff is director of Industry Research and Statistics, SEMI, Milpitas, California.

Forecast SummariesCharts 1 and 2 are the recent world growth forecasts for this year and next for GDP (World Bank), Electronic Equipment and Printed Wiring Boards (Custer Consulting Group), Semiconductors (SIA/WSTSI and new Semiconductor Capital Equipment (SEMI). The semiconductor-related sectors are clearly outgrowing the rest of the supply chain. These forecasts require regular review considering the current global political uncertainty and potential industry output and trade disruptions.Updates to these forecasts are regularly available.Taiwan Wafer Fab SalesComposite sales of 14 Taiwan-listed wafer fabs including TSMC and UMC dipped sharply in June. This sales composite has been historically a useful leading indicator for global semiconductor shipments (Chart 3). If wafer fab sales remain weak, they may signal an imminent chip slowdown. These data are updated monthly.Wafer Fab, Semiconductor and SEMI Capital Equipment Business CyclesChart 4 compares the 3/12 growth of global semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment to Taiwan-listed wafer fabs. Watch this information over the next few months to see if the wafer fab dip is temporary or leads semiconductor and SEMI equipment down to slower growth. Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics [email protected]

Device manufacturers continue to invest. Spending in cloud data center (compute, networking and storage), automotive (content per car increases), industrial (on content, factory automation, and positive macro trends), and consumer (gaming) end-markets is particularly strong. We see capital expenditure growth in 2018 and early indications pointing to sustainable spending into 2019. We also expect 14 percent increase (YoY) for fab equipment spending in 2018, up from the February forecast of 9 percent, and expect 9 percent increase in 2019, adjusted from the February forecast of 5 percent. 92 future facilities/lines with various probabilities are scheduled to start production in 2018 or later. Fab investment is just one indicator of how growing demand in areas such as from Artificial Intelligence (AI), cloud/data storage, automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) is driving unprecedented spending in the semiconductor industry. Below are a few highlights* of recent SEMI FabView insights. Details of each project can be found in FabView online 24/7 or World Fab Forecast report (Excel format). Infineon’s new 300mm Fab in Austria - Infineon is planning a new 300mm thin wafer Fab for Power Devices in Villach, Austria. Rumors on Toshiba’s new Fab plans - More 3D NAND fabs in the future at Toshiba are feasible. The timing will depend on market conditions, and our forecast will adjust accordingly. Vanguard's possible 300mm foundry fab - Vanguard's management said it might buy or build a 300mm fab in the near future as all 200mm fabs are essentially full. Powerchip plans to build new memory fab in Taiwan - Powerchip is investing more in expansions since Memory pricing is holding up. Rohm announced to build a new SiC fab in Fukuoka Japan - Rohm announced its plans to build a new SiC fab. Micron is building a new fab in Singapore - Micron broke ground in a ceremony for a new fab in Singapore on April 4, 2018. Bosch had groundbreaking ceremony of their 300mm fab in Dresden end April 2018 - Investment of 1 billion Euro. This is the biggest single investment in Bosch’s 130-year history. SEMI FabView, a mobile-friendly, interactive version of SEMI’s popular World Fab Forecast, delivers on-demand fab information such as fab spending and capacity for over 1,100 facilities, including over 82 planned facilities worldwide, across a wide range of product segments including Power, GPU, Memory, Foundry, MEMS and Sensors fabs. Fab data include region, start of construction, operation, construction and equipment spending, capacity, wafer sizes, product types and geometries. SEMI FabView subscribers receive forecast model updates through SEMI’s World Fab Database. Click here for a trial to experience SEMI FabView first hand. *Actual updates provide more detail Christian G. Dieseldorff and Clark Tseng, Industry Research Statistics Group, SEMI.