geopolitics

This year’s SEMICON West brought together industry experts from around the world to share insights on three of today’s most pressing topics: geopolitics, sustainability, and the semiconductor supply chain. From October 7-8, leaders from each field offered updates during SEMICON West’s Executive Panel Series, with each topic explored in its own hour-long session.Strategic Silicon: Geopolitics Shaping the Future of Semiconductors SEMICON West’s Executive Panel Series began on Tuesday, October 7, with a discussion on today’s geopolitical ecosystem and its impact on the semiconductor industry. Speakers compared the U.S. semiconductor landscape with China’s, highlighted supply chain strategies to mitigate disruption, and defined what it means to “win” the AI race. Mackenzie Hawkins from Bloomberg News moderated the panel, which featured Vince Jesaitis from Arm, Frank Heemskerk from ASML, Olivier Blachier from Entegris, Sarah Kemp from Intel, and Rich Ashooh from Lam Research.First, the panelists mentioned the U.S. CHIPS Act and the legislation’s attempt to diversify the semiconductor supply chain. Jesaitis added that countries are prioritizing supply chain resiliency, to which Kemp pointed to rising customer willingness to pay premiums for stronger supply chains. But what does it take to strengthen a supply chain? According to the panelists, a prevailing approach has been to regionalize operations. More regionalized supply chains can better withstand policy changes overall, but Ashooh noted that government regulations often can’t keep pace with innovation demands. China, in particular, may have key advantages in this respect. “The U.S. remains the most innovative environment in the world,” said Ashooh. “But if the Chinese government declared something a priority, the support will be there for it.” He also mentioned this arrangement allows China to advance in spurts.Kemp also stated that even with U.S. innovation and government incentives, the country faces longer construction times and greater policy complexity. Meanwhile, China is doubling down on its industry with resources and clear intent. Ashooh also added that China has more leverage in 2025 than it did during the first Trump administration. To address this, the panel recommended policy refinement to make U.S. trade relations more seamless. Furthermore, Heemskerk stated that the best government policies are often boring, advising governments to be predictable and reliable.The discussion concluded with mention of the AI race. Amidst discussion about what it means to “win,” Ashooh offered a simple explanation. Winning, he said, is seeing only customers in front of you instead of competitors. Sustainability Panel: Path to Success—The Semiconductor Industry Leads the WayAfter the Geopolitics panel, the stage swiftly transitioned to a new discussion centered on sustainability. Speakers included Elena Kocherovsky from Applied Materials, Beth Elroy from Micron, Joshua Kang from Qualcomm, and Sanchali Bhattacharjee from Google. SEMI’s Mousumi Bhat moderated this session.It may come as no surprise to learn that sustainability is reaching a critical juncture. According to the Climate Clock, the world has just under four years to address climate change before it becomes irreversible. Bhat pointed to this figure, emphasizing the mounting importance of industry-wide collaboration to make a tangible difference. With such a tight window for change, the panelists explained what’s being done to address these issues. Using AI to strengthen climate data, for example, came up several times. For instance, Sanchali mentioned that AI can bring in new data parameters to solve issues much faster. “We’re sitting at an inflection point where we have to harness the power of data,” she said.Elroy also shared opportunities to replace aging infrastructure with more sustainable equipment, as well as creating products that consume less energy from the start. However, distraction from climate goals is still a significant risk. Kocherovsky highlighted the industry’s limited resources, underscoring the importance of allocating them to efforts that move the needle. She cited clean energy adoption, noting that 80% of the industry’s emissions come from electricity. Fortunately, mitigation efforts are underway. Kang pointed to Qualcomm’s sponsorship of AI-powered air quality monitoring devices in Thailand, while Kocherovsky also touched on Applied Materials’ new sustainability projects. These efforts, while substantial, are nowhere near exhaustive. Tangible work is being done across the entire semiconductor ecosystem to make its solutions more sustainable, but it’s only the beginning. Charting the Course: Futureproofing Your Supply ChainsAs supply chain security has risen in priority, Wednesday’s panel detailed the industry’s efforts to strengthen it. Although COVID-19 exposed the urgent need for more resilient semiconductor supply chains, core issues have existed long before then. To explore this topic, I engaged speakers from across the value chain, including EMD’s Steven Johnston, AltaScient’s Rekha Menon-Varma, GlobalFoundries’ Roger Kao, Polar Semiconductor’s Surya Iyer, and Cisco’s Aman Aflaki. Today’s supply chain risks are enormous. From geopolitical tensions to natural disasters and cybersecurity threats, the semiconductor supply chain must withstand several intense and ongoing conditions. Because of this, the panel stressed the importance of early warning awareness and building buffers to counter setbacks. Creating buffers, Aflaki said, leads to necessary redundancies like using digital twins when feasible or engaging with second-and third-tier suppliers. Today’s customers, he said, also tend to be more focused on resilience and risk management rather than cost. Another emerging risk management solution is to use AI to build scenario models before incidents happen. As AI technology advances, companies that adopt it sooner rather than later could gain a competitive advantage. Johnston also added that AI could lead to more efficient R D and material sourcing. In addition, the panel pointed to the growing worldwide shift to regionalize supply chains. Menon-Varma highlighted that each country is approaching this in its own way, with many new global partnerships arising due to U.S. tariffs and export controls. Kao also reinforced today’s “local-for-local” supply chain trend.Finally, the panel ended with a discussion on collaboration. Although most leaders cite collaboration as crucial for the industry’s future, Johnston noted that working together is often halted by IP concerns. To address this, Iyer pointed to organizations like SEMI that unite key players to solve industry-wide problems.SEMI would like to thank all speakers, sponsors, and attendees for the success of this year’s Executive Panel Series. Bettina Weiss is Chief of Staff Corporate Strategy at SEMI.

The 2025 SEMICON West Market Symposium brought together leading analysts and strategists to decode the powerful forces shaping the global semiconductor market. Building on last year’s focus on fabless growth and workforce initiatives, this year’s sessions centered on the rising influence of geopolitics, trade policy, and AI-driven investment. Experts from SEMI, Integrated Insights, Boston Consulting Group, Kearney, PwC, WSTS and TechSearch shared perspectives on how global shifts from tariffs to technology races are redefining supply chain resilience and regional competitiveness.On October 6 in Phoenix, Arizona, Clark Tseng, Senior Director of SEMI Market Intelligence, hosted the symposium and presented along with industry experts on the current trade environment from various angles. Discussions ranged from the effects of U.S. tariffs across the globe, to sector-specific considerations and market growth areas. US Trade Dynamics in Semiconductors As the geopolitical landscape in the U.S. becomes more complex, Iacob Koch-Weser, Associate Director, Global Trade Investment at Boston Consulting Group outlined the impact that tariffs are having on the U.S. industry. The average American tariff, he said, is higher than any time in the last 75 years. Although the semiconductor industry is less affected by high tariffs than other sectors, Koch-Weser noted that might change with the administration’s expanded Section 232 Tariff that imposes 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives on nearly all trading partners. To explain, he described four potential Section 232 tariff scenarios, underscoring limited Section 232 enforcement as the ideal approach.Tariffs may be deprioritized in favor of chips incentivesThere may be targeted carveouts for alliesThe administration may impose high tariffs with limited exceptionsThere may be a 100% tariff rate To cope with tariff uncertainty, Koch-Weser recommended that companies consider reshaping policies, mastering trade compliance, and reconfiguring supply chains if possible. He also shared four potential outcomes for the future of U.S. trade that could take effect within the next 18-24 months. The U.S. may run its own system while the rest of the world aligns to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.North American countries may form a stronghold, leaving all other countries to choose between the North American alliance and WTO standards.Countries may form new blocs and preferential agreements, creating multiple economic spheres worldwide.Global cooperation could break down, forcing countries to fend for themselves.With everything considered, he reinforced that the U.S. is still an attractive place for semiconductor investment. The current administration, he said, recognizes the importance of bringing advanced technologies back to the U.S. Navigating Uncertainty: AI-Driven Growth and the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing RenaissanceContinuing discussions on tariffs, SEMI’s Clark Tseng painted a picture of the current U.S. semiconductor industry. He divided his presentation into four key areas: near-term economic uncertainty, AI changes everything, semiconductor market equipment forecast, and material market outlook.Near-term economic uncertainty: U.S. tariff policies are contributing to inflationary pressures and altering global trade patterns, leading to cross-border uncertainty that is slowing investment. U.S. tariff revenue, he said, has expanded from $7 billion in January 2025 to $29.5 billion by August, forcing companies to sacrifice margins to compensate. AI changes everything: By 2030, Tseng noted that nearly half of the semiconductor industry’s capital expenditure will be driven by AI, pointing to sustained growth in AI-driven cloud infrastructure spending through 2028 forecasts. AI is also moving beyond data centers into edge computing and endpoint devices.Semiconductor market equipment forecast: Tseng reported that the outlook for the equipment market remains strong over the next three years. However, the biggest risk to the market is a potential slowdown in AI investment and adoption. Additionally, U.S. export controls and changes in regional supply chains present some challenges. Last year, China was the largest market for semiconductor equipment, but Tseng expects continued normalization amid broader market adjustments. Taiwan and South Korea experienced the strongest year-over-year growth, driven by demand for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Material market outlook: Silicon wafer shipments grew strongly in Q2 of 2025, but Tseng flagged this as unexpected and cited tariffs as a possible explanation. He noted the 300mm wafer segment is expected to grow 7% in 2025, while 200mm is projected to decline. The total wafer material market, he said, is also expected to grow by 6% this year. Additionally, wet chemicals experienced a 16% expansion in 2025, while silicon wafers, photolithography materials, and CMP materials are in recovery. Semiconductor Market – Status Outlook Tobias Pröttel (or Proettel), CEO of World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), reported that the industry’s rebound remains firmly on track, with the latest WSTS statistics confirming a 19% year-over-year increase in global semiconductor sales during the first half of 2025. Total revenue reached $346 billion over the period, supported by strong demand for AI-driven infrastructure and next-generation data centers. Based on this solid first-half performance, WSTS has raised its full-year 2025 forecast to $728 billion, representing 15% annual growth, and now expects the market to reach around $800 billion in 2026, keeping the industry on course toward the $1 trillion milestone before the decade’s end.Logic and Memory continue to lead the expansion, driven by GPUs, AI accelerators, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), while other product categories are showing steady recovery after the recent downturn. Pröttel noted that this growth is not confined to a single region: the Americas, China, and Asia Pacific are all posting double-digit gains, reflecting strong global momentum across the semiconductor value chain.Strategic Approaches to Semiconductors by Major Economies Following Pröttel, Kearney’s Vice President, PERLab, Sanjay Kumar outlined the semiconductor investment climates in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and India. South Korea is currently focused on maintaining its lead in memory, diversifying into logic, localizing its supply chain, developing advanced packaging capabilities, and investing in startups. Kumar also noted the Korean approach of offering loans, as opposed to the U.S. strategy of providing direct grants. In addition, Kumar said the Korean government plays an active role in how it wants its companies to grow, whereas the U.S. takes a more passive approach in this regard.Japan is also honing its leadership in key areas like materials and memory, and Kumar also pointed to the country’s efforts to build additional advanced packaging capacity. Japan, he said, aims to grow its industry though a mix of grants, loans, and tax credits. Among the country’s notable subsidies include a 50% subsidy for TSMC – its largest so far – as well as a $4 billion subsidy for Rapidus. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is critical for protecting its national security. As a region with limited land, power, and water, Kumar noted that Taiwan is currently focused on developing its talent base. Its government is offering tax credits for R D and equipment and up to a 50% cost share for R D projects. India, he said, has one of the most ambitious incentive programs in the world. Through its India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), the country offers a 50% federal subsidy, in addition to a 20-30% state subsidy in its quest to cover the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Kumar also spotlighted some of India’s successes – like the joint venture between Renesas, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, and Stars Microelectronics – to build a new OSAT facility.Adapting to New Policy and Navigating the U.S. Semiconductor Landscape – Insights from Taiwan Taiwan is a critical trade partner of the U.S., ranking fourth in total trade volume as of July 2025. With Taiwan’s stronghold on the U.S. chip ecosystem, Paul Poliakov, Senior Manager, International Tax Services, CPA at PwC Taiwan detailed both the bottlenecks and developments regarding Taiwan companies’ investments in the U.S. Among the investment bottlenecks he highlighted were higher costs of building facilities in the U.S., multiple layers of compliance requirements that may be intimidating for new market entrants, and complex visa and tax regulations. In addition, Section 232 investigations on semiconductors are ongoing, with several potential policy changes that could take effect. The pending United States-Taiwan Expedited Double-Tax Relief Act could help ease burdens, he said, but it has yet to pass in the U.S. Senate as of October 2025. If it passes, it will integrate benefits for Taiwanese individuals and businesses into the U.S. tax code, which could substantially benefit Taiwanese investment in the U.S., including manufacturing, services, distribution, and a wide variety of other industries. Furthermore, Poliakov suggested that businesses maintain flexibility in their investment strategies, engage with U.S. state and local governments that can offer investment incentives, and work with professionals to ensure regulatory compliance. Geopolitical Shifts in Advanced Packaging AssemblyIn the final presentation of the 2025 Market Symposium, Jan Vardaman, Founder and President of TechSearch International provided an overview of the current advanced packaging market. Although advanced packaging represents the highest growth area in the industry, Vardaman highlighted that packaging complexity is also soaring. R D, testing, and equipment support infrastructure, she said, are becoming more critical for meeting future packaging needs. Even though assembly is mostly done in Asia, new U.S.-based advanced packaging facilities from Amkor, TSMC, and others represent signs of change. Still, Vardaman noted that the U.S. has almost no capability to produce advanced IC substrates using build-up film, which are needed to support high density applications. In addition, she highlighted that building more silicon fabs on U.S. soil won’t solve its national security or supply chain concerns.For the U.S. to create a sustainable packaging ecosystem, Vardaman concluded that support of assembly facilities is crucial. Ultimately, businesses must be willing to pay more for U.S.-based packaging in favor of potential supply chain resilience and national security benefits. SEMI would like to thank all speakers, sponsors, and attendees for the success of this year’s Market Symposium. Explore the latest SEMI Market Intelligence reports, covering historical reporting, actionable foresight into emerging trends and technology investments to make confident, forward-looking decisions across the semiconductor and microelectronics value chain.Clark Tseng is Senior Director, Market Intelligence Team at SEMI. Nishita Rao is Director, Product Marketing at SEMI.

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