Market Symposium

The 2025 SEMICON West Market Symposium brought together leading analysts and strategists to decode the powerful forces shaping the global semiconductor market. Building on last year’s focus on fabless growth and workforce initiatives, this year’s sessions centered on the rising influence of geopolitics, trade policy, and AI-driven investment. Experts from SEMI, Integrated Insights, Boston Consulting Group, Kearney, PwC, WSTS and TechSearch shared perspectives on how global shifts from tariffs to technology races are redefining supply chain resilience and regional competitiveness.On October 6 in Phoenix, Arizona, Clark Tseng, Senior Director of SEMI Market Intelligence, hosted the symposium and presented along with industry experts on the current trade environment from various angles. Discussions ranged from the effects of U.S. tariffs across the globe, to sector-specific considerations and market growth areas. US Trade Dynamics in Semiconductors As the geopolitical landscape in the U.S. becomes more complex, Iacob Koch-Weser, Associate Director, Global Trade Investment at Boston Consulting Group outlined the impact that tariffs are having on the U.S. industry. The average American tariff, he said, is higher than any time in the last 75 years. Although the semiconductor industry is less affected by high tariffs than other sectors, Koch-Weser noted that might change with the administration’s expanded Section 232 Tariff that imposes 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives on nearly all trading partners. To explain, he described four potential Section 232 tariff scenarios, underscoring limited Section 232 enforcement as the ideal approach.Tariffs may be deprioritized in favor of chips incentivesThere may be targeted carveouts for alliesThe administration may impose high tariffs with limited exceptionsThere may be a 100% tariff rate To cope with tariff uncertainty, Koch-Weser recommended that companies consider reshaping policies, mastering trade compliance, and reconfiguring supply chains if possible. He also shared four potential outcomes for the future of U.S. trade that could take effect within the next 18-24 months. The U.S. may run its own system while the rest of the world aligns to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.North American countries may form a stronghold, leaving all other countries to choose between the North American alliance and WTO standards.Countries may form new blocs and preferential agreements, creating multiple economic spheres worldwide.Global cooperation could break down, forcing countries to fend for themselves.With everything considered, he reinforced that the U.S. is still an attractive place for semiconductor investment. The current administration, he said, recognizes the importance of bringing advanced technologies back to the U.S. Navigating Uncertainty: AI-Driven Growth and the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing RenaissanceContinuing discussions on tariffs, SEMI’s Clark Tseng painted a picture of the current U.S. semiconductor industry. He divided his presentation into four key areas: near-term economic uncertainty, AI changes everything, semiconductor market equipment forecast, and material market outlook.Near-term economic uncertainty: U.S. tariff policies are contributing to inflationary pressures and altering global trade patterns, leading to cross-border uncertainty that is slowing investment. U.S. tariff revenue, he said, has expanded from $7 billion in January 2025 to $29.5 billion by August, forcing companies to sacrifice margins to compensate. AI changes everything: By 2030, Tseng noted that nearly half of the semiconductor industry’s capital expenditure will be driven by AI, pointing to sustained growth in AI-driven cloud infrastructure spending through 2028 forecasts. AI is also moving beyond data centers into edge computing and endpoint devices.Semiconductor market equipment forecast: Tseng reported that the outlook for the equipment market remains strong over the next three years. However, the biggest risk to the market is a potential slowdown in AI investment and adoption. Additionally, U.S. export controls and changes in regional supply chains present some challenges. Last year, China was the largest market for semiconductor equipment, but Tseng expects continued normalization amid broader market adjustments. Taiwan and South Korea experienced the strongest year-over-year growth, driven by demand for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Material market outlook: Silicon wafer shipments grew strongly in Q2 of 2025, but Tseng flagged this as unexpected and cited tariffs as a possible explanation. He noted the 300mm wafer segment is expected to grow 7% in 2025, while 200mm is projected to decline. The total wafer material market, he said, is also expected to grow by 6% this year. Additionally, wet chemicals experienced a 16% expansion in 2025, while silicon wafers, photolithography materials, and CMP materials are in recovery. Semiconductor Market – Status Outlook Tobias Pröttel (or Proettel), CEO of World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), reported that the industry’s rebound remains firmly on track, with the latest WSTS statistics confirming a 19% year-over-year increase in global semiconductor sales during the first half of 2025. Total revenue reached $346 billion over the period, supported by strong demand for AI-driven infrastructure and next-generation data centers. Based on this solid first-half performance, WSTS has raised its full-year 2025 forecast to $728 billion, representing 15% annual growth, and now expects the market to reach around $800 billion in 2026, keeping the industry on course toward the $1 trillion milestone before the decade’s end.Logic and Memory continue to lead the expansion, driven by GPUs, AI accelerators, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), while other product categories are showing steady recovery after the recent downturn. Pröttel noted that this growth is not confined to a single region: the Americas, China, and Asia Pacific are all posting double-digit gains, reflecting strong global momentum across the semiconductor value chain.Strategic Approaches to Semiconductors by Major Economies Following Pröttel, Kearney’s Vice President, PERLab, Sanjay Kumar outlined the semiconductor investment climates in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and India. South Korea is currently focused on maintaining its lead in memory, diversifying into logic, localizing its supply chain, developing advanced packaging capabilities, and investing in startups. Kumar also noted the Korean approach of offering loans, as opposed to the U.S. strategy of providing direct grants. In addition, Kumar said the Korean government plays an active role in how it wants its companies to grow, whereas the U.S. takes a more passive approach in this regard.Japan is also honing its leadership in key areas like materials and memory, and Kumar also pointed to the country’s efforts to build additional advanced packaging capacity. Japan, he said, aims to grow its industry though a mix of grants, loans, and tax credits. Among the country’s notable subsidies include a 50% subsidy for TSMC – its largest so far – as well as a $4 billion subsidy for Rapidus. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is critical for protecting its national security. As a region with limited land, power, and water, Kumar noted that Taiwan is currently focused on developing its talent base. Its government is offering tax credits for R D and equipment and up to a 50% cost share for R D projects. India, he said, has one of the most ambitious incentive programs in the world. Through its India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), the country offers a 50% federal subsidy, in addition to a 20-30% state subsidy in its quest to cover the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Kumar also spotlighted some of India’s successes – like the joint venture between Renesas, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, and Stars Microelectronics – to build a new OSAT facility.Adapting to New Policy and Navigating the U.S. Semiconductor Landscape – Insights from Taiwan Taiwan is a critical trade partner of the U.S., ranking fourth in total trade volume as of July 2025. With Taiwan’s stronghold on the U.S. chip ecosystem, Paul Poliakov, Senior Manager, International Tax Services, CPA at PwC Taiwan detailed both the bottlenecks and developments regarding Taiwan companies’ investments in the U.S. Among the investment bottlenecks he highlighted were higher costs of building facilities in the U.S., multiple layers of compliance requirements that may be intimidating for new market entrants, and complex visa and tax regulations. In addition, Section 232 investigations on semiconductors are ongoing, with several potential policy changes that could take effect. The pending United States-Taiwan Expedited Double-Tax Relief Act could help ease burdens, he said, but it has yet to pass in the U.S. Senate as of October 2025. If it passes, it will integrate benefits for Taiwanese individuals and businesses into the U.S. tax code, which could substantially benefit Taiwanese investment in the U.S., including manufacturing, services, distribution, and a wide variety of other industries. Furthermore, Poliakov suggested that businesses maintain flexibility in their investment strategies, engage with U.S. state and local governments that can offer investment incentives, and work with professionals to ensure regulatory compliance. Geopolitical Shifts in Advanced Packaging AssemblyIn the final presentation of the 2025 Market Symposium, Jan Vardaman, Founder and President of TechSearch International provided an overview of the current advanced packaging market. Although advanced packaging represents the highest growth area in the industry, Vardaman highlighted that packaging complexity is also soaring. R D, testing, and equipment support infrastructure, she said, are becoming more critical for meeting future packaging needs. Even though assembly is mostly done in Asia, new U.S.-based advanced packaging facilities from Amkor, TSMC, and others represent signs of change. Still, Vardaman noted that the U.S. has almost no capability to produce advanced IC substrates using build-up film, which are needed to support high density applications. In addition, she highlighted that building more silicon fabs on U.S. soil won’t solve its national security or supply chain concerns.For the U.S. to create a sustainable packaging ecosystem, Vardaman concluded that support of assembly facilities is crucial. Ultimately, businesses must be willing to pay more for U.S.-based packaging in favor of potential supply chain resilience and national security benefits. SEMI would like to thank all speakers, sponsors, and attendees for the success of this year’s Market Symposium. Explore the latest SEMI Market Intelligence reports, covering historical reporting, actionable foresight into emerging trends and technology investments to make confident, forward-looking decisions across the semiconductor and microelectronics value chain.Clark Tseng is Senior Director, Market Intelligence Team at SEMI. Nishita Rao is Director, Product Marketing at SEMI.

Powerful winds of change are re-shaping the semiconductor industry as it flexes and re-positions to power a new wave of growth on the back of emerging applications. Today, the industry is thriving, with growth expected to continue through 2019 even as Moore’s Law – the trusty doubling of transistors roughly every two years – begins to pump the brakes. Product mix and production technology are shifting as the dominant smartphone and PC markets, having seen their growth peaks, start to give way to large markets with relatively low semiconductor penetration, such as automotive.What’s more, new potentially ubiquitous technologies and platforms such as AI, blockchain and smart manufacturing are redefining market dynamics and the semiconductor ecosystem that underlies them.Troublingly, the most significant threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are not of its own making. Macroeconomic trends and trade policy disputes loom.These were some of the key takeaways from the SEMI Market Symposium kicking off SEMICON West in San Francisco this week. Following is a deeper look.Semiconductor MarketThe consensus view, reflected in forecasts presented by Clark Tseng of SEMI and Bob Johnson of Gartner, is that the semiconductor industry could top $500 billion in 2019 after reaching $400 billion in 2017. According to Gartner, smartphones and PCs will continue to account for large parts of the market, but will be displaced as major drivers of market growth by the emergence of industrial, automotive and, to a lesser extent, storage, from 2017 to 2022. Johnson noted that while communications and data processing applications drive logic device demand, average sales prices (ASPs) are a bigger contributor to revenue growth than unit growth.Leading-edge processors are a big part of the ASP picture, with equipment costs increasing ~20 percent per node. One challenge is that as Moore’s Law loses steam, leading logic producers are increasingly going their own way with new production technology. The volatile DRAM market – now in a “super cycle,” according to Tseng, and expected to peak in 2019 – has been stoking memory market growth.Initially, supply shortages fueled memory price increases as three of the four leading memory makers invested in flash rather than DRAM capacity. However, memory prices have been more recently been lifted by technology complexity, particularly as DRAM has moved to 3D architectures. The good news is that pricing, at long last, appears to be driven by value.Automotive MarketWith automotive accounting for less than 10 percent of semiconductor demand, there is room for growth. Rudy Burger of Woodside Partners noted that while the end market for automobiles is growing slowly, at 3 percent CAGR, the market size is nearing 100 million units. In market segments such as electric vehicles, the semiconductor content exceeds $1,000 but can be much higher.For example, the BMW i3 sports over $4,000 in semiconductor content. Burger said connectivity, autonomous driving and shared mobility services are also key opportunities for semiconductors to deepen their penetration in automobiles. For instance, the auto market for cameras, is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2017 to $6 billion in 2022.On average, high-end vehicles feature over $1,000 in semiconductor content, whereas low-end vehicles hover in the $400 range, said Anand Srinivasan of Bloomberg. Because the automotive market is segmented by function or subsystem, with different suppliers focusing on different areas, there is little supply concentration. Srinivasan also pointed out that because of significant differences in their objectives, automotive safety and automation systems should be developed separately.BlockchainThe chief benefit of blockchain is the trust it begets among all parties to a digital transaction through four fundamental features, said David Treat of Accenture: The tracking of provenance (knowing who has touched data, and what has happened to it) Tamper evidence (knowing if someone has tried to change the data) Control (which data elements to share with which parties) Security at the data element level While most of the hype over blockchain focuses on tokenized assets and ledgers (bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies), the fundamental application in the semiconductor industry is sharing trusted access to reference data at the data element level. This ability to provide shared trust can reduce costs throughout the supply chain and across enterprises. For example, future blockchain implementations will offer a full ecosystem view to any supply chain participant. While blockchain has typically been deployed through centralized control or platforms, peer consortia, such as SEMI, could help weave the benefits of blockchain through various ecosystems by enabling equipment and material suppliers, device manufacturers, designers and system integrators to share business and technical information securely and, if desired, anonymously.Global and Macroeconomic TrendsThe biggest threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are exogenous. After a decade of steady recovery since the financial crisis, the global economy appears to be heading for a slowdown. Duncan Meldrum of Hilltop Economics made the case that the global economy is at or just past the peak of the business cycle, and semiconductor equipment is past the peak.A key indicator of a looming recessionary is the movement toward an inverted yield curve, in which long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates – a phenomena that could materialize this year or next.The increasingly heated trade climate, marked by high-stakes confrontations between the U.S. and China, threatens complex supply chain arrangements, though mercurial policy statements could do even more harm than stiffer trade tariffs. Underscoring competing interests between the U.S. and China and the unpredictability of their relations, Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors pointed out that, in 2019, 60 percent of all semiconductors are expected to be used in China, deepening the dependency of several U.S. semiconductor companies on China.Paul Semenza, for SEMI Industry Research and Statistics