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SEMI Releases latest update to World Fab Forecast with adjusted semiconductor revenue consensus for second-half 2018 and 2019 Global semiconductor revenue in 2018 is now expected to reach $473.8 billion and clock a growth rate of 15 percent, a significant upward revision from the 7.5 percent expansion (to $442.9 billion) forecast at the start of the year by six research and investment forecasts tracked by SEMI Industry Research and Statistics (SEMI IR S). Data center growth will remain robust in the coming quarters, fueling demand for memory devices. In addition, cloud computing will continue to spur strong CPU, GPU, networking, ASIC, and DRAM and NAND demand through 2019, driving a consensus 3.63 percent year-to-year growth to reach the semiconductor revenue of $491 billion in 2019. Fab equipment spending (new and used) for 2018 is expected to increase by 14 percent to a record high of $63 billion, according to the last data from the SEMI World Fab Forecast, published by SEMI IR S. For 2019, fab equipment spending (new and used) is expected to increase 8 percent to another record of just under $68 billion. Memory continues to be the biggest swing factor in fab spending in 2018 and is expected to lead growth into 2020. 3D NAND will see the most capacity added in 2018 and 2019 with growth of 41 percent in 2018 and 27 percent in 2019, according to the SEMI World Fab Forecast. DRAM investment will see even stronger growth in 2018 and 2019 driven by new capacity addition as well as the continued technology shrink towards 1y/1z nm. For the first half of 2018, global spending for semiconductor fab equipment continues its growth momentum from 2017. Though we expect some softness in the second half of 2018, the outlook for 2019 remains robust with a fourth consecutive year of growth – the first such run since the 1990s. This prolonged growth cycle has been propelled by memory and will be extended by significant investment in China in 2019. Although a potential slowdown in 2020 is a concern, the overall outlook for semiconductor demand remains solid due to broad-based growth trends in data center, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML), automotive, and industrial segments. Following are other SEMI forecasts for fab spending. Installed Capacity 3D NAND will see the most capacity added in both 2018 and 2019 with growth of 41 percent in 2018 and 27 percent in 2019. Foundry capacity growth is steady at 3 percent in 2018 and 6 percent in 2019, driven by both leading-edge and trailing-edge capacity buildup. 200mm fab capacity will increase 4 percent in 2018 and 3 percent in 2019, fueled by demand for MCU, sensors, PMIC, MOSFET and Driver IC. New Facilities / Construction Spending In 2018, there are 72 construction projects with investments totaling $15 billion, a year-over-year increase of 23 percent. Construction spending will reach all-time highs with China continuing its lead at US$7 billion in 2018, shattering its own record of $6.3 billion investment in 2017. Most construction spending in 2018 will be for Memory (just under $9 billion), primarily for 3D NAND followed by DRAM. Foundry will log second place in construction spending at just under $5 billion. Fab Equipment Spending Fab equipment spending (new and used) for 2018 is expected to jump 14 percent to a record high of US$63 billion, flat from the forecast issued in June 2018. Equipment spending (new and used) for 2019 is expected to increase 8 percent to another record of just under US$68 billion, a downward adjustment from +9 percent published in June 2018. We believe equipment spending will remain healthy, driven by solid, broad-based demand and predictable technology investments on top of constructive SEMICAP equipment fundamentals. Activity Report The August report features 1,265 records including about 300 Opto- and LED-related facilities. We have made 223 changes related to 216 fabs/lines. The modifications include the addition of new records, changes to existing records, the deletion of records since the February 2018 World Fab Forecast report. We are tracking 103 future facilities/lines with various probabilities that will start volume production in 2018 or later. Download a sample report Not a subscriber? Please review SEMI fab databases listed below. Our databases deliver the latest forecast and a complete analysis of front-end fabs and foundries worldwide. They are ideal resources to empower your market research. Eugenia Liu is a Senior Product Marketing Manager at SEMI.

Fueled by heavy government investment, IC packaging and testing in China generated $29 billion in revenue in 2017, making China the world’s largest consumer of packaging equipment and materials, according to SEMI’s recent China Semiconductor Packaging Industry Outlook report. The report, based on research conducted between July 2017 through the end of January 2018, also revealed that China’s IC packaging and testing industry is more mature than its IC manufacturing and design sectors, though IC packaging and testing revenue growth has slowed in recent years. SEMI surveyed 87 semiconductor packaging- and assembly-related companies for the research report, including key semiconductor packaging manufacturers in China. More than 100 companies compete in China’s packaging and assembly market, including leading multinational companies and emerging domestic players. More than half of China’s packaging companies are located in the Yangzi delta region, while midwestern China has emerged as a hotbed for packaging plants.Additional report highlights: Compared to other world regions, China’s investments in IC packaging and testing saw the fastest growth over the past decade, with domestic manufacturers securing strong support from both national and local governments to ramp capacity and technical capabilities. The top three domestic packaging companies – JCET, Huatian, and TFME – all entered the top 10 global OSAT rankings following expansions and acquisitions from 2012 to early 2016. Packaging companies such as SPIL, TFME, NCAP continue to build new plants. As a major manufacturing region for LED products, China has become more prominent within the semiconductor packaging industry. China’s LED product sector grew to $13.4 billion (half of IC packaging) in 2017. In 2017, China accounted for about 26 percent of the global packaging materials market, with China’s packaging materials revenue forecast to exceed $5.2 billion in 2018. In 2017, the China assembly equipment market reached $1.4 billion in revenue, remaining the world’s largest with 37 percent share. In 2017, assembly equipment manufactured in China (including assembly equipment made by foreign-owned companies and JVs) accounted for 17 percent of China’s assembly equipment market. With the fast growth in the semiconductor packaging market, domestic packaging materials suppliers are expanding with the industry and now starting to serve leading international packaging houses. The SEMI report also elucidates the importance of both central and local government support, guidelines and policies on China’s semiconductor industry. The National Fund and local IC funds, created in 2014, and the Made in China 2025 policy provided a second boost to China’s IC industry growth. For packaging and testing enterprises, maintaining strong communications and relations with relevant government bodies and industry associations is essential to securing both political and financial support, in part because China’s semiconductor manufacturers and IC assembly and packaging companies are expected to purchase equipment and materials made in China.To learn more about this new report, click here.

After a record January, Taiwan-listed electronics companies, many of which manufacture in China, reported significant drops in February sales. A number of events likely contributed: Far fewer working days in February due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns Inflated January production and shipments in anticipation of the February holiday shutdowns Downward adjustment in Apple iPhone X forecasted demand Normal seasonality and traditionally lower post-Christmas consumer products demand – including PCs and mobile phones Results (based upon composite revenues of large groups of Taiwan-listed companies): OEM sales dropped 28 percent from December to January (normal seasonality) and then an additional 24 percent from January to February. This 101-company OEM group saw record high sales in December 2017 followed by a two-year low in February 2018 (Chart 1). ODM sales dropped in sync with OEM sales, with Foxconn/Hon Hai sales declining from 675 billion NT$ (US$22.9 billion) in December to 401 billion NT$ in January and to 278 billion NT$ in February. Chip foundry sales (historically a leading indicator for global semiconductor shipments) also registered a large January to February decline (Chart 2). Other electronics firms (package and test, passive components, printed circuit boards) saw the same type of February declines. We await March results as the sharp February decline is very likely due to multiple causes. Historically, the annual recovery begins in spring.Walt Custer, Custer Consulting Group