geopolitics

With the emergence of consolidation as a potent engine of semiconductor industry growth, global mergers and acquisitions are sweeping the industry as companies look to accelerate advances across segments including data centers, AI, IoT and automotive chips.

AEM Holdings Ltd, a Singapore-based multinational corporation, is listed in Forbes Asia’s 200 Best Under A Billion 2019 and 2020 spotlighting small and midsized companies in the Asia-Pacific region with sales under $1 billion. AEM clinched the Singapore Business Review Technology Excellence Award 2020 for Analytics-Semiconductor and the Singapore Business Awards Enterprise Award 2019/2020. These achievements are testament to AEM’s vision and innovation and the company’s contributions to the increasingly complex testing of chips in a rapidly evolving technological world. I spoke with AEM CEO Chandran Nair, a new Regional Advisory Board (RAB) member of SEMI Southeast Asia, about the company’s intelligent test and handling solutions, its role in digital transformation, the company’s key role in the smart manufacturing movement and the growth prospects for Singapore’s electronics sector. SEMI: AEM’s application-specific, intelligent system test and handling solutions for semiconductor and electronics companies serve the advanced computing, 5G and AI markets. How do you differentiate your solutions from those offered by competitors? Nair: A key differentiation for AEM is that we work closely with our customers to develop application-specific integrated test and handling solutions that meet their needs in a scalable manner from lab to production. We offer our customers customized, full-stack test and handling solutions that give them the agility to accelerate their delivery cycles and enhance product quality. Over the years, AEM has developed and acquired world-class technologies in instrumentation, test, automation, robotics, optical inspection, high-end thermal control, and software. These technology pillars, along with our deep know-how to customize test and handling solutions using the technology pillars as a platform, enable AEM to meet the fast-changing needs of our customers faced with the challenges of testing heterogeneous and complex devices. In addition to investing in technology, AEM has also invested in delivering application-specific solutions to meet customer demand. Our recently announced acquisition of CEI with its manufacturing capabilities in Vietnam and its specialization in low-volume, high-mix manufacturing increases our geographical reach and our ability to quickly turn application-specific test and handling solutions to be deployed. We have a unique and differentiated approach that enables our customers to test high-performance computing devices, automotive devices, and mobility devices with maximum test coverage, cost-effectively, in a manufacturing environment. Our experience in serving the high-performance computing market that traditionally drives advancements in thermal control also puts us at the forefront of delivering comprehensive thermal management, vision, and deep automation and test solutions for the computing, automotive, and mobility markets. AEM also has a strong instrumentation portfolio, including high-density digital instruments and mixed-signal and protocol-aware instrumentation that is well-suited for ATE solutions for SoC, high-power devices, and CMOS image sensors. Over the last few years, we have also established leadership positions in developing and deploying application-specific test solutions for MEMS devices and offering wafer and frame probing stations suitable for R D, wafer sort, and final test. We form strong partnerships with our customers, provide them with end-to-end support in product development, and take them through the entire life cycle process from concept to mass production. Chandran Nair and Goh Meng Klang, vice president of operations, at the AEM manufacturing site in Singapore. (Photo credit: AEM) SEMI: Digital transformation is powering strong growth of advanced computing, 5G and AI. Will AEM be expanding its AEM manufacturing plants in China, Malaysia and Singapore to meet rising demand for these technologies in the coming years? Nair: In regards to manufacturing, AEM currently has manufacturing facilities in Singapore, Malaysia, the U.S., Finland, and China. With our recently announced acquisition of CEI, we will add manufacturing capability in Vietnam and Indonesia. AEM will continue to expand manufacturing appropriately to give our customers cost-effective solutions while maintaining our proven track record of delivering on time and scaling rapidly in times of crises like the pandemic or geopolitical disruptions. As for advanced technologies, the three key factors that will bring the full potential of 5G to fruition are 1) cost-effective, high-powered processing devices at the edge, 2) easy access to high-bandwidth communications, and 3) cost-effective sensor technology. Semiconductors are the primary drivers of these three key success factors. As devices become more complex and our reliance on semiconductor-powered devices in all aspects of our lives deepens exponentially to include mission-critical applications, AEM’s role is to ensure that our customers' electronic and semiconductor devices are shipped thoroughly tested, safe to use, and highly reliable. It is imperative that, as a testing company, we find innovative ways to help our customers test their products with maximum coverage and minimum cost. To do this, we are focusing our R D efforts and investments to continue building on our key technology pillars to ensure that we stay ahead of the curve when it comes to test and handling solutions. We prepare our customers to test increasingly complex devices manufactured on the latest process node. SEMI: During your career you’ve driven projects in test and automation and more recently robotics solutions for ports, logistics warehouses and transport. With robotics and automation a key part of Industry 4.0, what role do AEM solutions play in powering the smart manufacturing movement? Nair: The smart manufacturing movement is powered by semiconductors, software and increasingly by artificial intelligence (AI). Test is at the heart of the process of ensuring that semiconductor and electronics devices reach the consumer well-tested for reliability. With our vision of enabling A Zero Failure World, AEM addresses the necessity for safe, highly reliable devices. The semiconductor companies themselves are adopting smart manufacturing methods. AEM’s tools are Industry 4.0-ready, and we continue to invest in machine learning and data analytics, which are integral to the future of test. Our tools are automated and feature embedded sensors to provide our customers with data about tool usage, the state of a machine’s health, and more. Our tools are connected to our customers’ manufacturing automation platforms. Additionally, we continue to invest in our ability to better slice and dice test data to understand trends and patterns to help our customers analyze data and make decisions faster. SEMI: You also have experience heading autonomous vehicle projects. With the COVID-19 pandemic hastening digital transformation, do you see an acceleration in the development of fully autonomous vehicles and smart manufacturing? Research and development efforts for autonomous vehicles (AV) continue at a fast pace worldwide. With shutdowns and restricted movement rules globally, the pandemic has hastened digital transformation in many ways. The delivery of goods and services is transforming, and AV will surely play a part, especially in secure environments for autonomous transport. The pandemic has accelerated the development of autonomous vehicles and smart manufacturing technology in automation-friendly environments like factories and ports. SEMI: At the recent Global Technology Summit hosted by SEMI, you spoke about testing innovations to meet the demands of highly complex devices. Please elaborate on innovative testing solutions versus traditional testing? Nair: AEM offers a disruptive and differentiated solution, one that is driving a paradigm shift to asynchronous, modular, highly parallel, smart testing solutions. ​ The traditional approach of ATEs to test increasingly complex devices on advanced nodes has reached a point of diminishing returns as it gets exponentially more expensive to increase test coverage to acceptable levels. Additionally, as devices get more complex and companies are rapidly adopting heterogeneous packaging technologies, the realization that System Level Test (SLT) is necessary is forcing a rethink of the entire test process. AEM’s provides asynchronous, modular, highly parallel test cell solutions that enable each test cell to run SLT, final test, or burn-in all in one system and its ability to handle hundreds of test cells independently with each test cell testing multiple devices. Our solutions suddenly make comprehensive testing of every complex device cost-effective. Freeing us from legacy ATE allows AEM to provide these innovative solutions to our customers. AEM engineering and manufacturing teams in Singapore at work on semiconductor test and handling systems for global deployment at world-class semiconductor facilities. (Photo credit: AEM) SEMI: Singapore seems to be in the sweet spot of digital transformation. Singapore’s industrial production grew 8.6% year-over-year in January 2021, an expansion driven mainly by a surge in sectors including electronics, and more growth is seen in the year ahead. Digital technologies such as 5G technology and cloud computing together with continued demand for work-from-home equipment is behind this growth. What are the growth prospects for the region’s electronics sector? Nair: Singapore is well-poised to benefit from the current digital transformation accelerated by the adoption of these technologies during the pandemic. Being a safe, well-governed country with strong IP protection, excellent infrastructure, and the rule of law, Singapore is in a great position to play a central role in cloud-based services, 5G, and the semiconductor industry. Singapore’s semiconductor sector output is at a record high, and the prospects for renewed growth in the region are very good. SEMI: As a new Regional Advisory Board member of SEMI Southeast Asia, how is your industry experience relevant to the scope of this role? What opportunities lie ahead for the region? Nair: I am honored to represent AEM in the SEMI’s Southeast Asia RAB. The SEMI RAB can influence policymakers with ideas and information on the current and future needs of the industry. I also believe that SEMI Southeast Asia can cultivate a strong innovative semiconductor ecosystem that helps regional and global growth. I look forward to working with other very experienced and accomplished board members. Bee Bee Ng is president of SEMI Southeast Asia.

U.S. consumers are flush with cash, the American economy is hurtling back from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the semiconductor industry is flying high on skyrocketing chip demand, with chip equities soaring since the initial outbreak in early 2020 as virus outbreaks worldwide supercharged demand for the digitization of everything from factories to home offices. “Wow, what a difference a year makes,” said Jennie Raubacher, Global Head of Semiconductor Electronics Investment Banking at Wells Fargo, speaking at a recent SEMI webinar. The two rounds of government stimulus payments in 2020 and 2021 gave many U.S. households the safety net to withstand the heaviest blows dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic and stoked consumer spending that has helped lift a hobbled economy. Durable goods spending in the U.S. has also seen a sharp rebound, surging more than 60% from its April 2020 trough, Raubacher said. The twin forces have driven a blistering U.S. economic recovery after GDP shrunk about 10% by the second quarter of 2020 only to bounce back in the first quarter of this year to roughly $19 trillion, regaining the lost ground to match the GDP charted at the end of 2019. With the U.S. economy continuing to gain steam, inflation has, as expected, edged higher, with price increases particularly acute in used vehicle and lumber markets. Despite surging prices, Wells Fargo sees inflation moderating as durable goods demand slows, easing pressure on interest rates, Raubacher said. Equity Valuations at Record Highs Heady semiconductor stock prices are not new. Over the past 15 years, equity prices of chip companies in the S P 500 have grown more than 460%, outpacing the 230% jump in value of the S P 500 index overall, Raubacher said. And chip stocks continue to shine. Since early 2020, when the spread of COVID-19 hit its rapid clip, the recognition of the growing importance of chips to economies around the world has exploded. That dynamic joined secular technology trends including autonomous driving development, industrial and factory automation, 5G infrastructure buildouts, data center expansions, and smart city and smart home innovation fueled by the Internet of Things (IoT) as key drivers of semiconductor stock valuations. With its price/earnings (PE) ratio now at more than 21x, the S P 500 is well above its historical average of 15x PE. “The S P 500 valuation is at record high any way you look at it, and valuation multiples across the board, currently at 3x Next Twelve Months revenue, have increased dramatically from historical averages,” Raubacher said. Semiconductor stock valuations are on similar trajectory, with the SOXX index now at 15x Next Twelve Months EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). “While semiconductor stocks may seem highly valued compared to historical levels, the chip industry has grown faster and expanded profitability by a wider margin than S P 500 companies,” Raubacher said. With that differential, “semiconductor equities are not as expensive as they may seem at first glance.” Earnings expansion and valuation multiple increases for the chip industry over the past 15 years have translated into a more than 500% jump in market capitalization, compared to a 300% increase for the S P 500 excluding chip companies, she said. Chip company revenue growth in the first quarter of 2021 was predictably low due to seasonality, dipping 2.4%, though dropped less than the historical average, Raubacher said. Second-quarter revenue growth for the industry is expected to hew to the historical average of 6%. Semiconductor growth forecasts by market analysts for 2021 range widely from 6% to 17% year-over-year, she added. Chip Companies Raise Capital at Record Pace In 2020 and 2021, semiconductor companies have raised an unprecedented $82 billion in capital to finance maturing debt and acquisitions, a wave that will “likely catalyze further consolidation in the sector,” Raubacher said. None of the financing has stemmed from liquidity crunches. Since Raubacher joined Wells Fargo 10 years ago to lead its semiconductor practice, the group has executed more than 175 transactions including $40 billion in mergers and acquisitions and $360 billion of financing for its semiconductor industry clients. “With a strong macroeconomic backdrop and demand environment, relatively low interest rates, semiconductor companies showing strong business fundamentals and robust valuations, we expect a pickup in M A activity,” she said. Growth Forecast Across Most Semiconductor Applications The next four years will see the chip industry grow across most applications including wireless communications, consumer electronics, transportation and medical. Automotive and industrial/aerospace will lead the way, expanding at an expected compounded annual growth rate of 14% and 10%, respectively, from 2020 to 2025 to “drive a significant portion of the TAM expansion during that period,” Raubacher said. Across all applications, the semiconductor industry is expected to grow at a 6.8% CAGR from 2020 through 2025, adding $183 billion in revenue by the end of the forecast period, she said. ESG Rises in Importance For their part, investors now focus on more than pure business performance when valuing individual companies. The ability of businesses to reduce their carbon footprint, promote workplace diversity and take other steps to serve the greater good as part of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) programs are carrying more weight in valuation models. “Investors are paying more and more attention to ESG initiatives and targets,” Raubacher said. “On the debt side, we’re seeing things like green bonds and interest rate reductions tied to ESG targets. Only a few semiconductor companies have incorporated ESG measures into their financing, so it’s still early days. It really comes down to the metrics you can track in your companies and the goals and targets you can commit to. It will be a very company-specific approach rather than an industry standard.” In the chip industry, Raubacher noted that ESG targets are geared not only to manufacturing equipment and processes in fabs and other semiconductor facilities throughout the supply chain, but increasingly also to chips themselves. As technology innovation continues to spur the development of chips to power more electronics for consumers and businesses, their proliferation comes at a cost: greater energy consumption. The upshot is that semiconductor makers are becoming more focused than ever on power-efficient designs to bolster their ESG initiatives, Raubacher said. Many semiconductor players across the supply chain are reducing their carbon footprint by switching to energy-saving equipment and reducing water waste, Raubacher said. At the same time, more semiconductor executives are recognizing the rising importance of highlighting corporate achievements across all aspects of ESG. More Governments See Vital Importance of Semiconductors As shelter-in-place orders took hold in countries worldwide after the initial COVID-19 outbreak, work-from-home offices, online shopping, virtual classes and remote doctor’s visits became the norm. The electronics at the heart of this connectivity – born of both necessity and convenience – and the chips that power them took on outsized importance around the world. Geopolitical skirmishes intensified and supply chains across the semiconductor industry were reimagined and redrawn. Governments jockeyed for advantage in the race to build new semiconductor manufacturing facilities and upped their chip investments. An acute chip shortage that started in the automotive industry and quickly spread to other sectors magnified just how pervasive and vital semiconductors had become in making the world go round. “There’s no question that the semiconductor industry is vitally important to global and national economies as governments around the world now recognize its strategic importance,” Raubacher said. That puts the industry in an even stronger position to help lay the regulatory groundwork for its own future. “There’s a unique opportunity for semiconductor industry executives to shape the public policies that could impact the direction of the industry for the next 30 years,” she said. More than 750 people attended the June 2nd webinar, Surging Chip Demand, Digital Transformation, and the Pandemic – What’s Next?, sponsored by SEMI members Brooks Automation, Hitachi, JECT, KLA and TEL. Sven Smit of McKinsey Company also delivered his talk Leading in COVID-19 Exit at the event.

MedTech, autonomous driving and other disruptive technologies will be in focus at the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS Europe), 31 March - 2 April 2019 in Milan, Italy, as top European executives, researchers and academics gather to explore solutions to the region’s most pressing strategic, economic and social challenges. Ahead of ISS Europe, SEMI spoke with Mark Purdy, managing director and chief economist at Accenture Research, about Accenture’s Business Futures – four different future worlds set in 2025 based on the collision of trends across demographics, geopolitics, technology, and economics – and what these futures will mean for markets, workforces, operating models and industry value chains. SEMI: At ISS Europe in Milan, you will kick off the symposium highlighting market opportunities of the digital economy and how companies must adapt to competitive challenges. What inspired Accenture’s Business Futures four world scenarios?Purdy: The impetus for our Business Futures really stemmed from a certain dissatisfaction with current approaches to thinking about the future. We were struck by the following puzzle. First, there is no shortage of techniques for looking at the future, from forecasting to trends analysis to conventional scenarios. Second, most decision-makers have more or less the same access to information on global trends. Yet, time and again, we hear stories of businesses going bust or facing major challenges precisely because they failed to anticipate major changes in their industry.The paradox is that we have so much information, but so little real understanding of how the future actually unfolds. So that set us thinking about how to develop a new approach, based on a combination of detailed trend analysis, expert input and creative storytelling – which is what we call “Business Futures.” SEMI: Of demographics, geopolitics, technology, and economics, which trend do you see as particularly critical?Purdy: Actually, the essence of our Business Futures thinking is that it is the collision or combination of different trends – across economics, technology, demography, etc. – that shapes future outcomes, rather than individual trends per se. To a certain extent we tend to become fixated on specific trends and this can lead us astray or cause bad decision-making. For example, in the early 2000s many people saw very favorable trends in the U.S. economy – strong capital inflows, rapidly rising consumer spending, surging stock markets, and rising home ownership rates. Each trend in isolation looked strong and sustainable. But we failed to see how the combination of these trends was fueling risky financial innovation that would eventually lead to the financial crisis and great recession.Technology of course is a key trend. We are seeing tremendous advances in next-wave technologies such as robotics, machine learning, intelligent objects, 5G and virtualization. But we can only truly understand the impact of the technologies – and the business opportunities and challenges they create – by viewing them against a wider backdrop of changes in society, demography, geopolitics and economics. That is what Business Futures strives to do.SEMI: What will these different futures mean for markets, workforce, operating models and industry value chains?Purdy: There will be profound changes in how we think about all of these areas. Markets will become much more personalized and interactive. Technology will be increasingly integrated with humans, fueling innovation in areas such as personalized healthcare and preventative medicine. Our notions of distance and capacity will be upended, as new virtualized services enable new ways of reaching underserved customers. Consumers will become increasingly involved in the creation and design of products and services. New methods of innovation, powered by AI and virtualization, will come to the fore. New entrants will come from unexpected quarters, enabled by new technology. The upshot will be massive disruption and disintermediation of value chains across many sectors.SEMI: What can Europe do to prepare?Purdy: There are no simple answers, and the correct course will vary by country, but there are some basic things to get right. First, different countries need to understand their comparative advantage – for example, whether it is in services, new technologies, advanced manufacturing or resources – and work with the grain of these different futures. Second, countries need to ensure that they have the basic conditions – regulation, organizational adaptability, workforce flexibility, skills, and innovation infrastructure – to capitalize on the productive potential of new technologies such as AI, virtual reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Third, we need to create educational systems and workforce learning methods that emphasize creativity, problem solving and innovation – precisely the skills that will be most needed in an age of intelligent machines. SEMI: What are your expectations for the summit in Milan and for the future?Purdy: I’m very much looking forward to the ISS Europe Summit in Milan. As an economist, I believe we are at a pivotal moment in the semi-conductor industry, driven by waves of technological change and rising geopolitical frictions and uncertainty. With so many industry leaders and experts coming together at the Summit, I’m confident that our discussions will help point a way forward!Mark Purdy is managing director of economic research at Accenture Research. His research examines issues at the intersection of economics, technology and business. He has published widely in tier-1 media and specialised publications on topics such as China’s economy, emerging-market geographic strategy, inclusive economic growth, business futures and the economic impact of new technologies such as the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence. A graduate of Trinity College Dublin, he speaks on these topics at conferences and seminars around the world.Serena Brischetto is a marketing and communications manager at SEMI Europe.