PCs

Japan’s semiconductor industry has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic to post robust growth. Far from a temporary setback, COVID-19 will lead to enduring change in how we work and live. And just as automation has been a bulwark against the devastating business impacts of the virus outbreak, increasing digitization will lead to new efficiencies in our industry.These were some of the key takeaways from three SEMI Japan Members Day webinars in June and July that offered the latest updates on COVID-19 impacts to the semiconductor industry and restart strategies for SEMI members. More than 2,000 SEMI members across Japan’s islands attended the webinars featuring the following five speakers: Hideki Kanewaka, Marketing Director, Consulting Lead, Japan, Accenture Japan Ltd. Takayuki Komori, Manager, Marketing Engineering Dept, SUMCO Corporation Taketoshi Hamaguchi, Director, Manufacturing Industry, Microsoft Corporation Akira Minamikawa, Senior Consulting Director, OMDIA (Informa Intelligence LCC) Yuichi Koshiba, Managing Director Partner, Boston Consulting Group COVID-19 Impact on Japan Semiconductor Industry is ModestThe consensus view of the five speakers from various quarters of the industry – consultant, IT service provider, materials supplier, market analyst – was that the Japan semiconductor industry withstood the heavy blows COVID-19 dealt to other industries thanks to strong demand for chips. Shelter-in-place policies and lockdowns spawned by COVID-19 has accelerated the digital transformation rippling around the world as electronics sales have soared to support everything from remote work and education to healthcare and home entertainment including gaming.The rapid growth of cloud usage for video streaming, gaming and remote work is taxing communications network capacity and placing more bandwidth demands on servers, said Akira Minamikawa of OMDIA. According to a recent report by Nokia, communications network traffic has skyrocketed 300 percent for online meetings and 400 percent for gaming, bringing the networks closer to their capacity limits. Minamikawa sees server shipments increasing at 8 percent CAGR through 2024. For the broader chip market, he expects demand for notebooks, solid state and hard disk drives, and gaming to remain strong in 2020. He also predicts rapid 5G penetration for smartphones will boost semiconductor chip industry growth.Still, not all semiconductor segments are expanding, said Yuichi Koshiba of Boston Consulting Group. Chip shipments for end products in markets such as automotive, industrial equipment and aircrafts are on the decline. Slowing demand for chips that power automotive applications in particular could pare sales for some chip companies and distributors since the segment accounts for a high proportion of their overall revenue.State of the Semiconductor IndustryFrom SUMCO’s vantagepoint as a major silicon wafer supplier, the company’s Takayuki Komori sees a number of changes unfolding in the semiconductor industry: Smartphones are driving growing demand for process technology (smaller nodes) and 300mm wafers. Komori estimates the typical high-end smartphone sports 1,700 square millimeters of silicon. 300mm wafers account for 80 percent of that total while more than 50 percent of the devices use leading edge multi-patterning technologies. Smartphones will need more RF chips to support 5G’s high-speed communications and added frequency ranges. Substrates for RF switches and tuners have been shifting from gallium arsenide (GaAs) and other compound semiconductors to silicon. 5G smartphone penetration will accelerate as the cost of integrating CPUs and modem functions into a single chip sees a swift decline. While the sensitivity and resolution of CMOS image sensors have evolved to incorporate innovative backside illumination and stacking technologies, future advances will focus more on products for machine vision applications capable of sensing invisible light bands. Rising adoption of electric vehicles and robotics applications will drive growing demand for power semiconductors that control their motors such as IGBTs and MOSFETs as the production capacity for the devices expands and shifts to 300mm wafer lines. For memory fabs, Minamikawa said utilization remains high as a result of a spending slowdown by major chip manufacturers and will stay elevated even once additional capacity ramps to support robust demand. Foundry fab utilization also remains high despite the pandemic-driven cancellation of smartphone chip orders in March. Minamikawa also sees the utilization rate of micro rising with the surge in demand for notebooks, PCs and servers in the second half of 2020.Transition to New NormalAs people around the world start to settle into new ways of living and working, there’s a growing acceptance that the transformation will be long-lasting. And no area of people’s lives is changing more than their work. Boosted by government subsidies, many small and midsize companies in Japan have started to implement work-from-home policies, an area where major electronics and IT businesses had already instituted reforms, said Hideki Kanewaka of Accenture. A few examples: Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT) announced that half of its employees will continue to work from home in the future. A five-year plan Toshiba launched in 2019 to allow all employees to work from home will likely accelerate. Hitachi plans to allow all employees to work from home starting in April 2021. dwango, a major internet-based entertainment company in Japan, announced it will allow in principle any employees to work remotely. In the critical area of remote sales, Kanewaka pointed to the importance of going beyond online business meetings, paperless transactions and virtual events to devise new ways to attract customers and close deals. Creating online communities and providing rich digital content are also important measures to consider, he said.Manufacturing's Digital TransformationTravel restrictions by most countries to curb the COVID-19 outbreak have also raised barriers to chip companies sending engineers overseas sites to service state-of-art equipment and provide other technical support. Microsoft’s remote assist system deployed by ASML is one tool semiconductor makers can use to overcome this challenge, said Taketoshi Hamaguchi of Microsoft.The system connects a remote equipment service expert with an onsite worker through the internet, allowing the technical expert to provide support through a goggle display with a camera worn by the worker. Guided by the expert, the worker can perform complex services. A Natural User Interface (NUI) helps give the factory worker a clear understanding of the often highly technical instructions.Using artificial intelligence (AI) to increase automation will also help reduce the reliance of semiconductor factories on onsite workers. For example, AI deep learning can be deployed to calibrate equipment autonomously and reduce downtime after scheduled maintenances, Hamaguchi said.Corporate Restart Strategies Beyond factory considerations tied to COVID-19, semiconductor companies will need to adapt their business strategies to new ways of operating. For example, global supply chains will shift to domestic sources and increase redundancy to ensure a steady supply, a change leading to higher overall costs, Koshiba said. Trade routes among regions will also be redrawn as the trade rift between the United States and China and other geopolitical tensions intensify. The total value of those routes is expected to recover by 2023.Koshiba advised companies to evaluate the supply chain trade-offs between stability and cost and factor in potential risks to improve their short-term resilience and drive mid- to long-term supply chain restructuring.After past recessions, 14 percent of companies restored sales growth, Koshiba said. He recommended investing aggressively in growth and seizing M A opportunities during the downturn. Chip companies must also adapt to supply chain changes faster than competitors.Become a SEMI MemberWebinars like the recent SEMI Japan Members Day series have become increasingly important in the mix of programs and services SEMI offers members to help them connect, collaborate and innovate in the microelectronics community. To become a SEMI member, please visit the SEMI website or contact your nearest SEMI office.Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.

2020 still looks to be a very difficult year. How we manage the pandemic, the global economy and international relations remain major challenges but there are glimmers of light near-term and a likely much brighter future in 2021 and 2022.

Semiconductor companies that begin revising their long-term strategies now may emerge stronger in the next normal.In the months after the coronavirus began to spread, semiconductor companies moved decisively to protect employees, secure supply chains, and address other pressing concerns. Although the situation is still serious and many governments are still imposing physical-distancing requirements, semiconductor leaders are now looking ahead to the time when the pandemic abates and the next normal begins. To prepare for that moment, they are thinking about strategies for reimagining and reforming their business models—two activities that McKinsey described in a framework for responding to the coronavirus.Every aspect of the business model could be subject to change, including the composition of product portfolios, capital expenditures (capex), R D strategy, demand forecasts, supply-chain footprints, production decisions, and options for mergers and acquisitions (M A). But with so much uncertainty ahead, semiconductor companies may have difficulty making strategic decisions. To move forward, they should first establish a solid baseline for their company (see sidebar, “Determining the starting point,” for more information on this topic). With this foundation, semiconductor companies can chart a path to the next normal by focusing on the following questions: What recovery scenarios are most likely, considering evolving demand, economic developments, and other global changes? What is the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on long-term trends and demand? How can we emerge even stronger from the crisis? In past downturns, companies that thought about strategic questions early in the crisis were most likely to recover quickly and become market leaders. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in modern times, the need for long-term planning still holds true.Developing recovery scenariosCOVID-19 has significantly altered the fundamentals of the sector, including customer behavior, business revenues, and numerous aspects of corporate operations. Many companies have unclear future prospects, and some may not survive the crisis. Multiple recovery scenarios are possible, depending on potential government interventions and other variables that are now difficult to predict.Earlier, we published an article about the short- to medium-term outlook for semiconductor demand. Our analysis was partly based on assumptions in two of the nine scenarios that McKinsey developed for the COVID-19 recovery, both of which assume that the spread of the coronavirus is eventually controlled and catastrophic economic damage is avoided. In the first scenario, termed A3, global gross domestic product (GDP) recovers in the fourth quarter of 2020; in the second, termed A1, recovery is delayed until late 2022. Since the original analysis, we have updated the estimates to include 2021 demand.Both recovery scenarios suggest most semiconductor segments will experience negative year-on-year revenue growth in 2020.Both recovery scenarios suggest that most semiconductor segments will experience negative year-on-year revenue growth in 2020. Looking ahead to 2021, however, we expect that the situation will improve as most end markets recover, mostly because the starting point for 2020 will be much lower than it was in previous years. In the more optimistic A3 scenario, only a few segments meet the growth expectations that were forecast before COVID-19 emerged by 2021 (Exhibit 1). In the more pessimistic A1 scenario, the number of segments that recover is even lower (Exhibit 2). Within the individual segments, a few trends stand out: PCs. This segment will see the sharpest drop in demand and the performance gap will become more serious over time. Most people will buy all the home-office electronics that they need for remote work in 2020, lowering demand for next year. Meanwhile, enterprises may continue to delay investments in PCs to control expenditures, even if the recovery is proceeding. Automotive. In the more optimistic recovery scenario, A3, the automotive segment sees year-on-year growth of 28 to 36 percent in 2021. This estimate is based on the assumption that governments will offer incentives to car buyers. In A1, the scenario with the delayed recovery, government incentives are not as strong and growth remains in the 1 to 5 percent range. Wired communication. Growth in this segment could exceed pre-COVID-19 forecasts in both 2020 and 2021. This is one of the few areas where a delayed recovery would actually contribute to higher growth than the more optimistic scenario, since continued remote work and homeschooling will stimulate demand for wired communication. Evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on long-term demandBeyond 2021, semiconductor companies may have more difficulty predicting demand because even greater uncertainty abounds about healthcare and business developments. As companies create long-term plans and evaluate potential scenarios, trends in two areas deserve particular attention.Market pullOver the past few months, people around the world have experimented with new ways of working, studying, and communicating through videoconferencing and other technologies. Such trends could have a lasting impact on semiconductor demand and open new possibilities for existing products and services. For example, demand could increase for semiconductors that enable servers, connectivity, and cloud usage as online collaboration grows. Semiconductors may also be in high demand for the following products and services: contactless solutions, including touch screens and elevator buttons ambient assisted-living devices, including sensors, that help elderly and chronically ill patients remain in their homes, rather than moving to facilities automated-delivery solutions for the last mile, such as robots and drones digital work processes and the Internet of Things, especially in lagging sectors, such as healthcare, government, and defense Of course, COVID-19 could also decrease semiconductor demand in several important areas. Some automotive makers have already begun to postpone investment in autonomous driving because their lower revenues meant that less funding is available for R D. In other areas, demand trends are difficult to predict. Looking again at mobility, it is clear that public transportation is now less popular because people fear viral transmission. If subway and bus ridership remains low, or if more people begin to purchase private cars, semiconductor demand could shift in response.Monitoring industry shifts and geopolitical responsesOn the supply side, the pandemic has exposed risks that were previously unrecognized, leading to potential shortages of critical parts and components. In response, many semiconductor companies are already reconfiguring their supply chains to improve resiliency, and the changes may continue into the next normal. As they plan ahead, semiconductor companies might want to create scenarios that show the potential impact of localizing production, increasing stock and inventory levels, or making other changes.Within plants, the COVID-19 crisis could accelerate automation and the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies. Remote manufacturing, diagnostics, and maintenance could all become permanent features. If that occurs, semiconductor companies might become smart workspaces, with technologies that facilitate remote work for most employees. They might also encourage a hybrid model in which a certain number of employees are remote and the rest remain on site. The efficiencies gained through such changes, as well as their start-up costs, could influence future semiconductor revenues.Long-term scenario planning must also consider the geopolitical response to the COVID-19 crisis. To stimulate the local economy, several governments have already announced subsidies and incentives, but these often vary by region. China for example has announced extended state subsidies and tax breaks for consumers purchasing new electric vehicles, while the United States has reduced fuel-efficiency standards for automakers. Semiconductor companies should closely track such regional variations, since they may affect demand patterns, and note whether local government responses appear to be evolving.Emerging stronger from the crisisSemiconductor companies have developed effective crisis-management strategies during other difficult periods, including the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008. But the COVID-19 crisis presents entirely new challenges that make it different from any previous downturn. It hit unexpectedly and has exacted an immense humanitarian toll in addition to causing economic hardship. Although no playbook exists for such a crisis, some lessons from past downturns may apply if semiconductor players want to emerge stronger in the next normal.Modestly reducing capital expendituresIntel’s cofounder, Gordon Moore, once observed, “You can’t save your way out of a recession.” Large capex reductions are unavoidable if companies need greater liquidity to survive a crisis. But for companies in a better financial position, experience suggests that enormous cuts may not be the best strategy. During the Great Recession, many of today’s leading companies reduced capex less than their competitors and thus were better positioned to prepare for growth once the economy began to recover. With the current crisis, companies that proceed with plans to create next-generation products, purchase equipment, or make similar investments will be prepared if demand surges as the economy recovers. Those that hold back may have difficulty catching up, since some improvements can take years.Focusing R D budgets on next-generation productsFor maintaining a strong R D strategy during a crisis, three actions can be critical: Limiting cuts to R D budgets. As with capex, research shows that top companies tend to make moderate R D cuts during a downturn, allowing them to sustain a rich and evolving product portfolio. Unless liquidity issues require more significant cuts, companies should strive to fund innovation, rather than setting the bare minimum budget needed to keep R D running. Those companies that retain their focus on R D innovation now could gain long-term advantage over competitors, given the often lengthy timelines for developing new products. In some cases, the lagging competitors may never close the innovation gap. Focusing on next-generation products. Although semiconductor customers might be limiting their spending now, demand for new and innovative products could surge once the economy begins to recover. Rather than simply improving products using current state-of-the art technology, companies should also invest in next-generation products using new technologies. They may not generate revenue from these products over the next 12 to 24 months, but they will be well positioned once customer demand surges. Keeping a close eye on trends. Forward-thinking semiconductor companies will try to determine what products will generate the highest demand post-COVID-19 and prioritize their R D investments accordingly. Their analysis should encompass all areas, from new manufacturing techniques that allow for smaller process sizes to more innovative sensors. To make the right decisions, semiconductor companies must closely monitor new trends and customer behavior. If unexpected market shifts occur, they may need to take a new course. Taking a strategic approach to mergers and acquisitionsSemiconductor companies may also emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis if they take a strategic, systematic approach to investment and divestment. A retrospective, cross-industry analysis of 1,000 businesses shows that today’s top 100 companies were 10 percent more likely to undertake programmatic M A—the regular pursuit of modestly sized deals—both during and after the Great Recession (Exhibit 3). For divestment, the top 100 companies also unloaded 1.5 times more assets than their peers during the downturn. Another striking finding: the top companies also were more likely to pursue smaller deals. Overall, their average deal value was about 9 percent lower than that of competitors.A programmatic approach to M A is well-suited to the current era, since governments may implement stricter controls on large deals to limit foreign investment. It is possible that some protections may even extend to smaller deals to protect local businesses from hostile takeovers by international companies, so semiconductor players must examine regional regulations closely before proceeding with any M A activity.The world will be a different place after the COVID-19 crisis, and we do not yet know the extent of the changes within business, healthcare, and society as a whole. With so much uncertainty ahead, semiconductor companies will benefit by creating multiple future scenarios, each showing different macroeconomic and virus-related outcomes, as they set their strategy for coming years. They should embrace the uncertainty as part of their operating model, since agility and the ability to adapt quickly will be far more important than sticking to a plan. As in previous downturns, those semiconductor companies that act quickly could emerge stronger. Modest capex cuts, a focus on R D innovation, and a programmatic approach to M A could help them capture growth and create leading-edge technologies that will be in high demand once the economy begins to recover.About the authorsHarald Bauer is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Frankfurt office, Ondrej Burkacky is a partner in the Munich office, Peter Kenevan is a senior partner in the Tokyo office, Abhijit Mahindroo is a partner in the Southern California office, and Mark Patel is a senior partner in the San Francisco office.The authors wish to thank Daniel Anger, Stefan Burghardt, Sungwoo Chung, Viktoria Medvedenko, Sebastian Peick, Klaus Pototzky, Larissa Rott, Luisa Russwurm-Bössinger, and Klaus Seywald for their contributions to this article.Republished with permission from McKinsey Company.

Reports of 2Q’19 financials from all of the major OEMs in our 213 company global sample show that their electronic equipment sales declined 1.4 percent compared to the same quarter of last year.

John Smee, VP Engineering, Qualcomm Technologies Inc., will share insights on 5G – which is evolving to enable more reliable connectivity with higher performance in and beyond the era of Internet of Things (IoT) – in his keynote at MEMS Sensors Executive Congress, October 22-24, 2019, in Coronado, Calif.SEMI’s Maria Vetrano caught up with John to give MSEC attendees a preview of his talk.SEMI: Why should MEMS and sensors suppliers stand up and take note of the evolution in 5G, particularly 5G NR?Smee: 5G is the unifying fabric that will connect virtually everything around us. 5G New Radio (NR) is the global standard for a unified, more capable 5G wireless air interface. It will deliver significantly faster and more responsive mobile broadband experiences to users. It will also extend mobile technology to connect and redefine a multitude of new industries, including the IoT.As tens of millions of MEMS and sensors are the core components providing intelligence and interactivity to IoT devices, suppliers need to understand the capabilities and efficiencies that 5G will bring to connect the wide range of MEMS and sensors.We should also recognize that we are at the beginning of the 5G era, and 5G technologies will continue to evolve and expand in the coming years to connect new types of devices in increasingly efficient ways.SEMI: What’s special about the upcoming release of 5G NR, 3GPP Rel-16?Smee: While the first 5G NR release, 3GPP Rel-15, focused primarily on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), it also established a solid technology foundation for continued evolution in Rel-16 and beyond.With Rel-16, we are seeing 5G NR’s expansion beyond eMBB to address new tiers of IoT services such as industrial IoT (e.g., automation) with ultra-reliable, low-latency communication (URLLC) and cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) for more advanced use cases, such as autonomous driving. MEMS and sensors are critically important to both types of use cases as they collect the raw information of the physical world, and 5G is the connectivity of these sensors to the network. This makes the technologies inextricably linked.MEMS and sensors are equally integral to the development of more efficient low-complexity massive IoT devices (MIoT) with in-band 5G NR deployments of enhanced machine-type communication (eMTC)/narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) and the use of the new 5G Core Network. In practical terms, devices that enable smart city use cases – such as smart utility monitoring, connected parking meters, and smart street lighting solutions that support 3GPP Rel-16 – are MIoT devices that will delight city administrators and dwellers with their improved coverage and efficiency. SEMI: In addition to low-complexity MIoT devices, what other markets will benefit most from the evolution in 5G NR?Smee: We continue to enhance 5G NR to support the high-performance IoT, including URLLC.URLLC is one of the many new 5G capabilities that wasn’t possible with the previous generation of cellular technologies, such as LTE. Because it delivers services at very high reliability (i.e., 99.9999%) and ultra-low latency (i.e., sub-1ms), URLLC literally opens up new use cases that that only wired communication could serve in the past. Industrial IoT applications that require a mix of high reliability and low latency, such as robotic arm command and control, are foremost among these new URLLC use cases.Another example of IoT taking advantage of URLLC is smart grid, where faults in the electricity distribution network require immediate protection and control to ensure safety and avoid equipment damage.SEMI: How is Qualcomm building on the eMTC/NB-IoT for low-power wide-area IoT (LPWA) – and how will this influence IoT connectivity?Smee: We continue to evolve eMTC/NB-IoT beyond its initial 3GPP release in Rel-13, making these foundational LPWA IoT technologies more capable and efficient as they become the basis for 5G massive IoT.The most significant updates to eMTC/NB-IoT include multi-cast and positioning support in Rel-14 and improved spectral/power efficiencies in Rel-15. Multi-cast can help service providers to deliver firmware updates over the air with greater efficiency, which speeds deployment of new features. Positioning can create new values, which can inform end users where their assets/packages are located, potentially safeguarding assets in transit. Improving spectral/power efficiencies offers more power-efficient transmissions, which takes less toll on battery-operated devices.With Rel-16, we have further optimized eMTC/NB-IoT, which is supported by the new 5G Core Network and is also deployable in 5G spectrum in-band with other 5G NR services.The evolutionary path ahead for eMTC/NB-IoT enables support for an even wider range of 5G massive IoT devices. New enhancements in the pipeline, such as grant-free uplink and multi-hop mesh, will boost efficiency and coverage area that much more.SEMI: Where do mobile broadband devices such as ultra-high-definition (UHD) security cameras fall within Qualcomm’s realization of 5G-NR?Smee: Mobile broadband is at the core of 5G NR. We see it both powering the new generation of 5G smartphones and expanding beyond traditional devices (including always-connected PCs and tablets) to address the needs of high-performance IoT devices such as UHD security cameras.It’s actually an important part of our vision for 5G to have an industrial network that requires all types of 5G connectivity for devices spanning eMBB (e.g., cameras, laptops), URLLC (e.g., machines) and MIoT (e.g., sensors).SEMI: What can the MEMS and sensors industry do to prepare for the 5G wave?Smee: Because 5G can evolve to deliver even better performance and efficiency for connecting sensors in the 5G world, we will see even more widespread adoption of MEMS and sensors into larger numbers of connected applications. MEMS and sensors suppliers, therefore, need to get ready for the 5G wave by preparing to support 5G connectivity in their devices, which will ultimately help to realize the 5G vision of connecting virtually everything in the world around us.John Smee, Ph.D., is vice president of engineering at Qualcomm Technologies Inc., where he is the 5G R D lead responsible for overseeing all 5G research projects, including end-end systems design and advanced RF/HW/SW prototype implementations in Qualcomm’s wireless research and development group. He joined Qualcomm in 2000, holds over 100 U.S. Patents, and has been involved in the design, innovation, and productization of wireless communications systems such as 5G NR, 4G LTE, 3G CDMA, and IEEE 802.11. He also leads Qualcomm’s companywide academic collaboration program across technologies including wireless, semiconductor, multimedia, security and machine learning. John was chosen to participate in the National Academy of Engineering Frontiers of Engineering program and received his Ph.D. in electrical engineering from Princeton University and also holds an M.A. from Princeton and an M.Sc. and B.Sc. from Queen’s University.Smee will present Evolving 5G NR to Connect the Internet of Things on Wednesday, October 23, 2019, at MEMS Sensors Executive Congress, Coronado Island Marriott Resort Spa in Coronado, Calif.Register today to learn how 5G NR will transform the user experience with MEMS- and sensors-enabled devices in IoT, automation and beyond.Interested in engaging with the MEMS and sensors supply chain? MEMS Sensors Industry Group is a SEMI technology community that enables the MEMS and sensors industry to innovate, address common challenges and accelerate business results.Maria Vetrano is a public relations consultant for SEMI.

The electronics markets (and global economies in general) remain fragile, but there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon.

Powerful winds of change are re-shaping the semiconductor industry as it flexes and re-positions to power a new wave of growth on the back of emerging applications. Today, the industry is thriving, with growth expected to continue through 2019 even as Moore’s Law – the trusty doubling of transistors roughly every two years – begins to pump the brakes. Product mix and production technology are shifting as the dominant smartphone and PC markets, having seen their growth peaks, start to give way to large markets with relatively low semiconductor penetration, such as automotive.What’s more, new potentially ubiquitous technologies and platforms such as AI, blockchain and smart manufacturing are redefining market dynamics and the semiconductor ecosystem that underlies them.Troublingly, the most significant threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are not of its own making. Macroeconomic trends and trade policy disputes loom.These were some of the key takeaways from the SEMI Market Symposium kicking off SEMICON West in San Francisco this week. Following is a deeper look.Semiconductor MarketThe consensus view, reflected in forecasts presented by Clark Tseng of SEMI and Bob Johnson of Gartner, is that the semiconductor industry could top $500 billion in 2019 after reaching $400 billion in 2017. According to Gartner, smartphones and PCs will continue to account for large parts of the market, but will be displaced as major drivers of market growth by the emergence of industrial, automotive and, to a lesser extent, storage, from 2017 to 2022. Johnson noted that while communications and data processing applications drive logic device demand, average sales prices (ASPs) are a bigger contributor to revenue growth than unit growth.Leading-edge processors are a big part of the ASP picture, with equipment costs increasing ~20 percent per node. One challenge is that as Moore’s Law loses steam, leading logic producers are increasingly going their own way with new production technology. The volatile DRAM market – now in a “super cycle,” according to Tseng, and expected to peak in 2019 – has been stoking memory market growth.Initially, supply shortages fueled memory price increases as three of the four leading memory makers invested in flash rather than DRAM capacity. However, memory prices have been more recently been lifted by technology complexity, particularly as DRAM has moved to 3D architectures. The good news is that pricing, at long last, appears to be driven by value.Automotive MarketWith automotive accounting for less than 10 percent of semiconductor demand, there is room for growth. Rudy Burger of Woodside Partners noted that while the end market for automobiles is growing slowly, at 3 percent CAGR, the market size is nearing 100 million units. In market segments such as electric vehicles, the semiconductor content exceeds $1,000 but can be much higher.For example, the BMW i3 sports over $4,000 in semiconductor content. Burger said connectivity, autonomous driving and shared mobility services are also key opportunities for semiconductors to deepen their penetration in automobiles. For instance, the auto market for cameras, is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2017 to $6 billion in 2022.On average, high-end vehicles feature over $1,000 in semiconductor content, whereas low-end vehicles hover in the $400 range, said Anand Srinivasan of Bloomberg. Because the automotive market is segmented by function or subsystem, with different suppliers focusing on different areas, there is little supply concentration. Srinivasan also pointed out that because of significant differences in their objectives, automotive safety and automation systems should be developed separately.BlockchainThe chief benefit of blockchain is the trust it begets among all parties to a digital transaction through four fundamental features, said David Treat of Accenture: The tracking of provenance (knowing who has touched data, and what has happened to it) Tamper evidence (knowing if someone has tried to change the data) Control (which data elements to share with which parties) Security at the data element level While most of the hype over blockchain focuses on tokenized assets and ledgers (bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies), the fundamental application in the semiconductor industry is sharing trusted access to reference data at the data element level. This ability to provide shared trust can reduce costs throughout the supply chain and across enterprises. For example, future blockchain implementations will offer a full ecosystem view to any supply chain participant. While blockchain has typically been deployed through centralized control or platforms, peer consortia, such as SEMI, could help weave the benefits of blockchain through various ecosystems by enabling equipment and material suppliers, device manufacturers, designers and system integrators to share business and technical information securely and, if desired, anonymously.Global and Macroeconomic TrendsThe biggest threats to the continued growth of the semiconductor industry are exogenous. After a decade of steady recovery since the financial crisis, the global economy appears to be heading for a slowdown. Duncan Meldrum of Hilltop Economics made the case that the global economy is at or just past the peak of the business cycle, and semiconductor equipment is past the peak.A key indicator of a looming recessionary is the movement toward an inverted yield curve, in which long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates – a phenomena that could materialize this year or next.The increasingly heated trade climate, marked by high-stakes confrontations between the U.S. and China, threatens complex supply chain arrangements, though mercurial policy statements could do even more harm than stiffer trade tariffs. Underscoring competing interests between the U.S. and China and the unpredictability of their relations, Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors pointed out that, in 2019, 60 percent of all semiconductors are expected to be used in China, deepening the dependency of several U.S. semiconductor companies on China.Paul Semenza, for SEMI Industry Research and Statistics