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The more than 53,000 people who flocked to SEMICON Korea last month were treated to a motherlode of insight into the future of the semiconductor industry as 470 companies exhibited innovative technologies in more than 2,000 booths. But the annual event’s most arresting numbers came in keynotes and other presentations pointing to the extraordinary industry growth that lies ahead.“It is no exaggeration to say that 90 percent of the world’s data has been generated in the last few years,” said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research. “This explosive growth of data is expected to continue. That's why server shipments will grow by 20.3 percent, or 30 million units, this year alone.”Feldhan said that the Internet of Things (IoT) will be a chief driver of semiconductor industry growth, with IoT expected to be applied in areas as varied as automotive, smart cities, edge computers, finance, architecture, agriculture and healthcare. For its part, artificial intelligence (AI) will start to exercise human-like judgment. Feldhan noted that in many instances in these fields, “it is more accurate to apply AI and vision systems than to rely on traditional decision-making.”Yoon Jong Lee, senior vice president of DB HiTek, predicted that the Internet, AI and 5G will drive market growth. “Looking back over the past 30 years, semiconductor market growth was powered by PCs, the Internet and cell phones, yet last year memory accounted for 35 percent of total semiconductor sales, more than double the figure in 2016,” he said. He predicted that, in 2019, the foundry sector will outstrip the semiconductor market in growth, noting that the average growth rate of the semiconductor industry is expected to be 4.1 percent, compared to 7.1 percent for the foundry market. Clark Tseng, director of SEMI, reported that the strong semiconductor growth in 2018 is unlikely to continue in 2019 due to the decline in memory pricing, as well as mobile and PC demand. “Demand for semiconductors is likely to decline in the first half as the industry is still digesting inventory and rebound in the second,” Tseng said. Semiconductor industry growth headwinds include decreases in high-end smartphone purchases, PC demand and demand for DRAMs for servers in data centers, Tseng said. Declines in economic growth and consumption in China and the U.S.-China trade war will also contribute to a slowdown. However, Tseng noted that, over the long term, technology innovation will continue and that the semiconductor industry’s prospects remain bright.One key innovation will be the elimination of AI’s reliance on Internet connections in the future. In his opening day keynote, Eunsoo Shim, senior vice president at Samsung Electronics, emphasized that AI technology that operates without the Internet in the future is essential. “We are developing 'on-device AI' technology that incorporates AI algorithms in products such as smartphones and autonomous vehicles,” he said. "When on-device AI technology is implemented, it reduces reliance on the Internet, battery consumption, and data latency.” Reducing latency will significantly improve device response time.Walden C. Rhines, CEO Emeritus of Mentor, a Siemens business, predicted that AI will fuel rapid memory growth. The memory semiconductor (DRAM, NAND flash) market is expected to see a temporary slowdown this year, with the market expected to rebound in 2020. Rhines said that memory could be seen as an early market with rapid future growth, citing memory market super-booms in 1995 and 2000.“Memory production has not decreased since 1995 or 2000,” he said. “Although memory prices will temporarily fall this year after significant market growth in 2017 to 2018, the market will continue to grow as memory production increases,” he said. Rhines added that “although memory prices will drop by about 10 percent this year, he believes prices will increase 6 percent next year.” He also predicted the steady growth of the non-memory semiconductor market as AI technology matures and China’s investment in fabless companies continues.Indeed, SEMICON Korea speakers made it clear that concerns about the growth of the semiconductor industry are expected to be short-lived. While overall growth is likely to slow in 2019, the industry is expected to rebound steadily – powered by the semiconductor industry paradigm shift led by AI, IOT, and autonomous driving – and reach a new high of nearly $541 billion in 2020.Jaegwan Shim is a marketing specialist at SEMI Korea.
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Kyushu, the third largest island in Japan, is home to the semiconductor production bases of integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) with world-class cutting-edge technology. SONY, Toshiba, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu and Nissan are among the sector’s shining stars, though a host of other IDMs tied to the supply chains of other major enterprises have also set root in Kyushu. Collectively, the companies earned Kyushu the name Silicon Island of Japan.Kyushu’s flourishing IDM industry sprouted from favorable tax and other government policies that reduced semiconductor production costs to levels lower than elsewhere in Japan. Once the IC producers had established bases, equipment and materials companies naturally followed, leading to the influx of many parts manufacturers. Together, they came to Kyushu, one after another, to make the island a magnet for manufacturing. And so it was to Kyushu that a SEMI China delegation travelled for a meeting at TEL’s factory in Kumamoto to learn more about the secrets to the rapid growth of the island’s semiconductor industry and promote cooperation between Chinese and Japanese enterprises. Underscoring the rise of the Silicon Island of Japan, China will soon become TEL’s largest market, said Masami Akimoto, Chairman of Tokyo Electron Kyushu Limited, speaking at the event. Masami Akimoto hopes for support from SEMI China.The island of 12 million people contributes to the growth of the global semiconductor industry, expected to reach USD 500 billion in size in 2019 as China’s semiconductor sector, fueled in part by government-backed investment funds, continues its rapid expansion. Despite the gains, China still lags other regions in advanced manufacturing, said Lung Chu, president of SEMI China, which is doing its part to draw more advanced manufacturing to the region through its SIIP platform. The initiative encourages pan-regional cooperation with China’s semiconductor industry to promote free trade, open markets, technology innovation and IP protection – all to help China better integrate with the global semiconductor industry. SEMI China President Lung Chu(L) issues visit memorial to Masami Akimoto(R), Chairman of Tokyo Electron Kyushu Limited. Chicken shall be led by the HenUnlike other regions with comprehensive semiconductor industries, Kyushu’s is primarily focused on production and assembly, with more than 200 manufacturers of semiconductor equipment and parts.SEMI China Delegation at Tokyo Electron Kyushu LimitedTEL built its first factory in Kumamoto, a city covered by volcanic ash in the center of Kyushu, 34 years ago. Today, TEL every month produces 80 to 90 sets of equipment, each consisting of, on average, over 400 thousand parts that must be certified and authorized by TEL before delivery to its module manufacturers and assembly into complete machines. Having blossomed over the past few decades, the island’s supply chain now supplies TEL with all its equipment parts. SEMI China Delegation at Fajita WorksTEL supplier Fajita Works, a high-precision plate metal manufacturer founded in 1945, is emblematic of other companies in the Kyushu supply chain. It keeps a low public profile as it serves several longtime customers and earns ardent loyalty from its workers, an ethos reflected in the change next January of its slog from “Only One” to “Great company, Great life.”Quality is the life of the enterpriseLong before the rise of its legendary automobile and consumer electronics companies, Japan was known for inferior, counterfeited products, labeled “Made In USA” and shipped to the United States by more than 100 factories. The net effect was to shrink and commoditize American markets. The tide in Japan’s product quality and stained reputation began to turn in the 1980s, when Japan’s semiconductor industry began to produce memory with an error rate 27 times lower than its U.S. competitors, giving Japan an upper hand in quality that it would never relinquish. SEMI China Delegation at HORIBAKyushu-based flowmeter supplier HORIBA, among the many Japanese companies famous for their product quality, ships 38 percent of its products into the automotive market and 27 percent into the semiconductor sector. Cleanliness is as vital a part of the company’s culture as quality. Each depends on the other, with fine detail held to the highest importance. On its visit to HORIBA, the SEMI China delegation, passing by an office area before entering the factory, sighed at the sight of the spotless, neatly kept furniture and workspace: They had never seen an office so sparkling clean. HORIBA’s success is rooted in immaculate offices, factories and the company’s motto “Enjoy innovation and pay close attention to product quality.”After Kumamoto sustained heavy damage during a 2016 earthquake, HORIBA workers returned rocks scattered by temblor to their original position, knowing that order is critical to lean, efficient manufacturing and that, indeed, “the devil is in the details.” SEMI China Delegation in Kumamoto City Full confidence in the exploration of Chinese marketConsumer electronics stalwarts Sony and Panasonic feature semiconductor factories in Kagoshima, the southernmost city in Kyushu and Japan, though rumor had it two years ago that Panasonic planned to pull out. The Panasonic plant, which provides batteries for Tesla, remains. The Sony facility produces image sensors for the iPhone.Semiconductor equipment maker ULVAC, SEMI China’s most important strategic partner, is also based in Kagoshima. During the delegation’s visit to the company, Lung Chu noted that while China is the world’s largest semiconductor market, the region meets just 13 percent of domestic chip demand. Stressing that ULVAC can play a crucial role in helping China become a bigger player, he expressed admiration for ULVAC’s professionalism along with hope that it will maintain its rapid growth and leverage SEMI resources to catalyze rapid development of Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and 5G technologies in China and rise into the top 10 of global equipment manufacturers. SEMI China President Lung Chu (L) issues visit memorial to ULVAC Kyushu President and CEO Kenji Yamaguchi ULVAC Kyushu president and CEO Kenji Yamaguchi made clear the company’s interest in Lung Chu’s insights into Chinese semiconductor industry while underscoring its core competency of producing semiconductors for flat panel displays. The Kyushu Factory of ULVAC is full of vitality and market competitiveness. SEMI China Delegation at ULVAC EBARA, a precision machinery company located in Kumamoto, has manufactured chemical-mechanical planarization (CMP) equipment for over 20 years and delivered nearly 2,400 mechanical polishing machines worldwide. While the company expects to ship 50 sets per year to China starting next year, it has the capacity to deliver 20 sets per month, enough to meet demand of Chinese semiconductor makers. SEMI China Delegation at EBARAThe most telling takeaway from the SEMI China delegation’s visit to the Kyushu: Japan ranks number one worldwide in research and development (R D) investment as a proportion of GDP and is also at the top in the percentage of R D funds controlled by private enterprises. The outsize investment strategy has enabled Japan to maintain its hold as one of the world’s top technology innovators.Like Sakurajima, the famed Kyushu volcano, the SEMI China delegation will continue to harness its forces to build relationships with the island’s semiconductor supply chain as it works to develop win-win pan-regional relationships and foster the growth of China’s semiconductor industry. Best view of Sakurai volcano Gang Yao is a marketing director at SEMI China.
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