IDC

The global chip market has hit the bottom of this cycle and will rebound next year, with memory poised for growth in the second of 2023 driven by a resurgence in server investments, Soo-Kyoum Kim, Vice President of IDC, predicted in a presentation at SEMI Korea Members Day.

As a top semiconductor manufacturing hub, Korea is poised to lead the world in fab construction spending in 2019 and 2020, accounting for 27 percent of the total market. Little wonder that Korea’s prowess in the semiconductor industry has meant steady membership growth for SEMI Korea, with HD Cho, president of SEMI Korea, putting the average annual jump at about 7 percent.But HD Cho’s focus as he returned to COEX in Seoul, home to SEMICON Korea, in late August was not on membership growth over the years but the future. Cho hosted about 400 SEMI members gathered at SEMI Korea Members Day for insights into the state of the world economy, semiconductor industry outlooks, and perspectives on how South Korean and European microelectronics companies can form stronger ties. Setting the stage with look at macroeconomics, Byung-yeon Kim, team manager of NH Investment and Securities, predicted that, as the global economy continues to falter, 25 of the 58 major countries this year will cut interest rates in a bid to boost prospects for growth. Historically, the global composite leading indicator (CLI), a bellwether for turning points in the economy, has rebounded after 20 months of decline, he said. While the CLI downtrend is now past the 20-month mark, Kim struck a bullish note, predicting that the global economy will bounce back before long.Soo-kyoum Kim, vice president at IDC, referring to the semiconductor industry’s own soft patch, said that total revenue is expected to drop from $475 billion in 2018 to $440 billion this year but should rebound to a new high of $500 billion in 2023. The memory market will be especially hard-hit, dropping more than 29 percent in 2019 and another 14 percent next year before bottoming and then staging a recovery in the second half of 2020. The strength of the rebound will hinge on server market demand, he added.Next year will also see rebounds in semiconductor equipment and materials revenue, with growth of 12 percent and 3 percent, respectively, said Clark Tseng, director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. The increases will follow a 2019 equipment market drop of 18 percent to $53 billion from the previous year while materials this year is expected to remain flat at $52 billion. The semiconductor industry will expand at a modest 2.4 percent this year, jumping to 7.6 percent in 2020, Tseng reported, citing the average growth rate based on data from Gartner, WSTC, IC Insights, VLSI Research and other industry analyst firms. Despite current weak market demand and the ongoing trade war, the long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains upbeat, he added.In Europe, semiconductor industry growth continues on the strength of the region’s high strategic importance in the global electronics supply chain, said Laith Altimime, president of SEMI Europe. Fab construction spending in Europe continued to grow in 2018, reaching $300 million, and is expected to hit $1.2 billion in 2019 and $1.6 billion in 2020, with equipment, parts and components driving the surges.To help build stronger ties between European and Korean chip industries, Altimime introduced the SEMI Korea members to SEMI Europe business platforms including SEMICON Europe, the 3D System Summit, ISS Europe, and the MEMS Imaging Sensor Summit. He also encouraged the formation of more business partnerships between companies in the two regions by familiarizing SEMI Korea members with European players in areas such as foundry, MEMS, sensors and wafer manufacturing.And it will be MEMS and sensors that help drive the 4th Industrial Revolution, said Sung-hyuk Kim, a team leader at LG Electronics' Sensor Solution Research Institute. In his presentation Architecting Sensor Solutions for the Next Revolution, he noted that sensors are finding their way into devices where they have never been used before. In household refrigerators, gas sensors help deodorize the inside while distance sensors detect the approach of people. Air conditioners equipped with a camera sensor can pinpoint the location of humans and steer the airflow in their direction. Of course, all these smarts will come in form of data-devouring artificial intelligence (AI), and that data will be generated in massive amounts by MEMS and sensors – placing them at the epicenter of the 4th Industrial Revolution.Jaegwan Shim is a marketing specialist at SEMI Korea.

Five young dancers bathed in a striking rainbow of colors with their silhouettes cast in the background dazzled SEMICON Japan 2018 attendees at the opening ceremony in mid-December. Gone were the standard opening keynotes and ribbon cutting, replaced by live performance and media art set against a dramatic black backdrop. There was no mistaking the wide-eyed looks of wonder in the audience.In its sheer vibrance, the opening ceremony thrilled with an excitement that seemed to embody the extraordinary growth expectations for the global semiconductor supply chain over the next five years, with the industry poised to double sales from $2 trillion to a staggering $4 trillion – a phenomena SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha has called The Rebirth of the Semiconductor Industry. Driving this unprecedented growth will be SMART applications that are transforming industries and applications worldwide, powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies.The dramatic scene at SEMICON Japan 2018 was staged by Rhizomatiks, a media arts company that produced the Rio Olympic Games closing ceremony and is famous for its pop music spectacles. The company’s CTO, Motoi Ishibashi, the event’s first keynote speaker, described his team’s development of drones and vehicles guided by motion and precision-control technologies. It was some of these SMART vehicles that maneuvered the opening ceremony performers from the dance company Elevenplay onstage. Only Rhizomatiks, Ishibashi said, has this capability. In its mission to enrich people’s lives through new media arts, Rhizomatiks uses the latest virtual and mixed-reality technologies to orchestrate not only dance performances but music videos, commercials, fashion shows and festivals.Toru Nishikawa, the second keynote speaker and CEO at Preferred Networks, a leading Japan-based developer of deep learning software programs, surprised the SEMICON Japan audience with his discussion of his company’s work to develop a specialized chip for deep learning processing, joining technology giants Apple, Google, Alibaba and Microsoft in chip design. As more IT and software companies develop specialized, differentiated chips, the devices are quickly becoming the heartbeat of SMART technologies. The company’s approach has taken hold. Only four years old, Preferred Networks is enjoying rapid growth by working with global powerhouses including Toyota, NTT, Panasonic, Fanuc, NVIDIA, Intel and Microsoft. Ishibashi’s and Nishikawa’s fresh visions and the media arts extravaganza reflected the success of SEMICON Japan, held again at Tokyo Big Sight: The event’s 1,881 booths – filled by 727 exhibitors from 14 regions – was the highest count in six years. With Japan home to companies that supply about 40 percent of semiconductor equipment and materials worldwide, top suppliers historically have occupied the largest spaces on the SEMICON Japan show floor.According to IDC, personal computers and smartphones, long the largest revenue sources for the semiconductor industry, will remain top revenue drivers in the coming years. But revenue from new SMART technologies for applications such as automotive and factory automation is growing, a trend expected to continue with a 2018-2022 CAGR of 9.5 percent for automotive and 5.2 percent for manufacturing, compared to 1.1 percent for PCs and 2.9 percent for smartphones.SEMICON Japan’s new SMART Applications zone highlighted these and other new market opportunities for semiconductor growth with product and technology exhibits from companies including Bosch, IBM, Microsoft, NEC, Preferred Networks, Sony, SAS, Siemens, Tesla and Toyota. But the zone wasn’t all work and no play. The ROBOT SQUARE and SPORTS x IOT robot exhibits took visitors back to their school days, with robot anime – from Astro Boy to Gundam and Evangelion – that they could ride and control! As the World Gets Smarter, So Must SEMICON and the IndustryWe all agree the world is getting smarter at a fast pace. New cars are easier to drive – some models are almost fully autonomous on highways and streets. Your SMART speaker has gone well beyond an audio playback device and is more like a home AI platform. Almost all storefronts are equipped with video cameras. Your workplace, whether an office or a factory, is driven by automation. The reliance of these environments and devices on semiconductors is driving exponential chip and changing the world. Businesses need to adapt and so do SEMICON events. We’re doing just that as SEMICON Japan 2018 demonstrated – from an opening ceremony enabled by technology innovation to new faces of the industry to the SMART Application zone. As the SEMICON Japan presidents’ reception concluded the first day of the show, a robot from the ROBOT SQUARE suddenly appeared in the reception hall in front of about 250 executives from the global industry. Everyone at the reception was impressed and stepped forward to the stage, reflecting the overall excitement about SEMICON Japan, which for many years showcased only chip manufacturing equipment and materials. This year, to keep pace with the changing world, it was much more than that.SEMICON Japan 2019 will again take place in December at Tokyo Big Sight. However, organizers of the Tokyo Olympics will be using the East Exhibit Hall usually occupied by SEMICON Japan to prepare for the games. As a result, SEMICON Japan will be held in the West and South Halls instead. Look for more changes to the event. I hope to see you next year!Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.