economic stimulus

While the full contours of the next normal are still unclear, semiconductor companies largely acted decisively at the beginning of the crisis to build resilience and position the sector for future growth. To plan ahead, now is the time to think about the next normal and set the strategic direction needed to emerge even stronger from this humanitarian and economic crisis.Global GDP recoveryMcKinsey has developed nine GDP recovery scenarios, and as the economic situation has developed, we surveyed more than 2,000 global executives to discover that two of those scenarios are most likely. Both of those scenarios assume that the spread of coronavirus is eventually controlled and catastrophic economic damage is avoided. In the first scenario, global GDP is expected to recover in the first quarter of 2021; in the second, recovery is forecasted to be delayed until late 2022. The geographies of recovery will vary, as some industries and regions will recover faster than others.Semiconductor Demand Forecast for 2020 and 2021The COVID-19 crisis has created an unprecedented challenge for the semiconductor industry. During the 2007/2008 recession, consumer demand stagnated. This crisis, however, has affected both demand and supply, creating dual pressures. Our demand forecast is based on the two most likely McKinsey GDP recovery scenarios as well as on extensive surveys, expert interviews and research on the recovery in China. Charts 1 and 2 (below) show that the semiconductor market as a whole is expected to decline by up to 10% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting slowdown in the global economy. In 2021, however, most segments are expected to grow, with total market size surpassing 2019 value in the more positive scenario. The PC market segments will see the least growth, while the wireless communication and automotive segments should expect to be hit hardest by this crisis with a decline of as much as 21% and 27% respectively in 2020. However, they are expected to bounce back in 2021 with growth of up to 19% and 36% in the positive outlook scenario.It might take some time for the semiconductor market to fully recover. The timing of the industry’s recovery depends largely on the containment of the virus, government economic stabilization efforts, and the global economic recovery.1. Products include memory, micro components, logic, analog, discrete, optoelectronics, and sensors/actuators.2. 2020 estimates were calculated using 2019 baseline and percentages have been rounded.3. Gray values indicate 2020 growth forecast; blue values indicate growth forecast for 2021 only. Sources: IHS, Expert Interviews 1. Products include memory, micro components, logic, analog, discrete, optoelectronics, and sensors/actuators.2. 2020 estimates were calculated using 2019 baseline and percentages have been rounded.3. Gray values indicate 2020 growth forecast; blue values indicate growth forecast for 2021 only.Sources: IHS, Expert Interviews Emerging stronger from this crisisSemiconductor companies had already developed effective crisis-management strategies during past crisis and industry downturns. However, this situation is unique. Overall, we see three main activities that can help semiconductor players with through-cycle resilience and growth: Define the starting position: Creating a baseline can help inform future strategic decisions by providing a holistic view of the current strategy, internal capabilities and external position. Develop economic and political recovery scenarios: Developing and deciding which economic and political recovery scenarios to focus on will enable companies to create company specific scenarios. Therefore, it is important to analyze demand in the short and long terms, along with the effects of subsidies, stimulus packages and industry dynamics. Prepare for the next normal: To prepare for the next normal and emerge even stronger from this crisis, companies should focus on how to gain market share during the downturn. As competitors focus on resilience, companies who see themselves in a financially stable position can focus on increasing their company’s growth and market share. This mindset, however, is most effective when established across the entire organization. Opportunities to emerge even stronger include defining a strategic, systematic approach to investment and divestment as appropriate. This means that several smaller deals that accrue to a meaningful amount of market capitalization over the years often have a more positive impact than one large transaction. History tells us that finding pockets of growth and revising capex, R D and M A strategies are the building block to emerge stronger from a crisis. As Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel once said, "You can't save your way out of a recession." This translates into moderate capex and R D budget cuts with the focus on future growth drivers. These approaches are supported by insights from previous crises.Although the crisis has presented a major challenge, it also offers the chance for companies to set themselves apart from competitors. The semiconductor industry as a whole has been more resilient than many other industries. The global push toward digitization has also been a major tailwind that will likely be a key element of the global economic recovery.Ondrej Burkacky is a partner with McKinsey Company based in its Munich office. He leads McKinsey’s semiconductor and software work in Europe, as well as its global COVID-19 semiconductor task force. For McKinsey’s latest insights on the business implications of the coronavirus pandemic, visit its website, which is updated daily.

On April 16, Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe expanded the state of emergency beyond Tokyo, Osaka and five other prefectures to all 47 prefectures nationwide in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19.As I reported two weeks ago, SEMI Japan initiated communications with all prefectural governments on April 10. Since then, the government’s concerns over the virus’s impact on the semiconductor supply chain have heightened. Prefectural Governments Plan No Restrictions on the Semiconductor Supply ChainOf the 47 prefectural governors I contacted, urging them to classify the semiconductor industry as an essential business, 40 confirmed in follow-up calls through April 20 that they have no plans to restrict operations of the semiconductor industry and supply chain companies in their jurisdictions. Those prefectures include Aichi, Akita, Aomori, Chiba, Ehime, Fukui, Fukuoka, Fukushima, Gifu, Gunma, Hiroshima, Hyogo, Ishikawa, Iwate, Kagawa, Kagoshima, Kanagawa, Kochi, Kumamoto, Kyoto, Miyagi, Miyazaki, Nagano, Nagasaki, Nara, Niigata, Oita, Okayama, Okinawa, Saga, Saitama, Shiga, Shimane, Shizuoka, Tochigi, Tokushima, Toyama, Wakayama, Yamagata and Yamanashi.However, the Aichi, Iwate, Kumamoto, Nagasaki, Oita and Saga governors cautioned they will reconsider restrictions on the semiconductor and other industries if COVID-19 transmissions worsen.The seven other prefectures including Tokyo and Osaka are not planning to respond to our request until they have COVID-19 transmission mitigation plans in place. In the meantime, SEMI Japan will continue to encourage prefectural governments to allow semiconductor supply chain companies to continue to operate unrestricted, a move consistent with current national policy for novel coronavirus disease control.Japan’s Economic Stimulus PackageOn April 6, a day before prime minister Shinzo Abe declared the emergency state for seven prefectures, he announced an unprecedented 108 trillion yen ($989 billion) stimulus package[1]. The package, equivalent to about 20% of the Japan’s economic output, dwarfs the 56 trillion yen in aid passed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.The first phase of the relief package seeks to halt job losses and bankruptcies, while the second will support a V-shaped economic recovery. For businesses, phase-one aid includes: Subsidies for firms that keep workers on the payroll. Large companies keeping at least half of their workers on the payroll and small and medium sized businesses that continue to pay at least two-thirds of their employees are eligible for the payouts. One-year deferment of income and regional tax payments for companies hit by the virus Property tax reductions of 50% in fiscal year 2020 for small and medium sized companies with sales that have fallen by at least 30%, and property tax exemptions for those with sales suffering contractions of at least 50%. Interest-free loans requiring no collateral for small and medium sized companies Low-interest loans available to medium sized and large companies through the Development Bank of Japan and Shoko Chukin Bank The second phase of the package, still under development, could include incentives to recharge consumer spending and tourism and subsidies for regional economies once the coronavirus has been contained.Japan COVID-19 Stimulus and Support ResourcesThe economic support measures planned by the Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) are summarized at https://www.meti.go.jp/english/covid-19/index.html#10.Prefectural and municipal stimulus and support information is summarized in Japanese at https://j-net21.smrj.go.jp/support/tsdlje00000085bc.html.SEMI Supports Members with COVID-19 ResourcesSEMI international headquarters and regional offices are here to help you, our members. For more information on our webinars, surveys, best practices and other information designed to help you meet the challenges of the pandemic, please visit the SEMI Coronavirus Updates Resources page.[1] The government increased the stimulus package to ¥117.1 trillion after a sudden policy shift to provide cash handouts of ¥100,000 for every individual in Japan. Originally, the plans were to give ¥300,000 to each household that has seen a sharp fall in income due to the virus outbreak.Jim Hamajima is president of SEMI Japan.