Current Edition:
May 2026Publication Schedule:
MonthlyPrincipal Analysts:
Duncan MeldrumFormat:
Adobe® PDF (.pdf)Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Report
The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast (ESF) is the leading forecasting tool utilizing proven econometric models to provide high accuracy, timely semiconductor forecasts.
In an environment shaped by new technology, geopolitical shifts and material uncertainty, opportunities arise for firms that can navigate these challenges to capture growth and minimize delays. ESF supports this goal by analyzing numerous supply and demand data sets, leveraging our advanced econometric forecasting model to capture 98% of the long run variation in semiconductor growth.
Additionally, this report also incorporates key economic drivers & uncertainty, global shocks and regional volatility to deliver a comprehensive report on SEMI’s Million Square Inches (MSI) of silicon processed. The ESF also provides each month an alternative scenario, based on a consensus view of the global economic outlook. The ESF is developed and updated by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in collaboration with SEMI Market Intelligence.
Applicable to: Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment and Materials suppliers, IDMs, Foundries, Fabless, EDA, Semiconductor IP, Design & Verification Services, other suppliers of goods and services to the semiconductor design and manufacturing ecosystem.
Product marketers, sales, operations managers, market analysts, strategic and technical consulting firms, investors and investment banks. Executives, sales and business development, supply chain management, engineers, and strategic planning organizations.
Report Methodology
SEMI employs a proven approach to its studies to gather, analyze, and validate the information needed for final reports.
The key methodologies include:
Comprehensive Primary and Secondary Research: SEMI conducts field interviews with essential end users, equipment manufacturers, materials suppliers, and knowledgeable experts.
Market Modeling: Wafer start forecasts, categorized by device type and technology node, are integrated with detailed device architecture models. This process helps create unique forecasting models for manufacturing operations, material demand, and market trends.
Product Information
Features
- Silicon area forecasts, economic drivers and materials market commentary
- Monthly trends in key semiconductor-related indicators influencing the forecast selected from the more than 450 global data series tracked by Hilltop Economics
- Forecasts for growth in global real GDP, consumption, investment, PCs and smartphones
- US consumer and business spending on technology goods
- Inventory-shipments ratios
- Financial crisis shock and Covid-19 shock cyclical behavior performance indicators
Benefits
- Proactive planning: Anticipate both short and long-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry to improve demand planning
- Stay ahead of market shifts: Leverage our Econometric model for detailed silicon area forecast, accurately gauge impact of evolving global markets
- Mitigate risk: Navigate global economic shocks and policy changes effectively, anticipate supply chain shifts and downturns to minimize loss
- High accuracy: Account for 98%+ of long-term variations in quarterly MSI growth rates
- Competitive positioning: Track evolving economic drivers and threats to refine strategies and capitalize on emerging opportunities ahead of competitors
- Timely Updates: Up-to-date quarterly forecasts, complemented by monthly updates, ensures access to the latest semiconductor figures available
Purchase
| Product | Member | Non-Member | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 User License (12 months) * | $5,800 | $5,800 | Buy Now |
| Enterprise-wide License (12 months) | $16,800 | $16,800 | Buy Now |
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* Price is per User License. Email [email protected] to inquire. |
* Price is per User License. Email [email protected] to inquire.
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