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The Q1/February 2020 editions of the World Fab Forecast and World Fab Watch databases have been published and are available now.  The following highlights are from our World Fab Forecast database:              

Key Points:

Fab Equipment Spending

  • 2019 equipment spending has improved towards the end of 2019 but the year still decreased by about -9% to US$56 billion.
  • We expect 2020 spending on equipment to be in the low single digits (about 3% to US$ 57.8B). We expect the first half of 2020 to be more affected by coronavirus and the continued trade war which has a stronger impact on China.
  • Driven mainly by investments for leading-edge Memory, Foundry and MPU, 2021 is poised to be a record year with a growth of almost 14% or almost US$ 66B beating the last record year in 2018.
  • Spending for DRAM shows a decrease in 2020 but picks up in 2021. Spending for NAND is in lower double digits in 2020 and expected to increase in 2021.
  • The largest growing sectors, although smaller in numbers compared to others, are Power and Opto which show strong growth rates for 2020 and 2021.
  • Taiwan is a top spender in 2020 with almost US$14B (-14% YoY) but drops to third place in 2021. 
  • Korea is 2nd in place in 2020 but moves to top spending region in 2021 with a growth rate of 31% and 26% respectively.
  • China feels the impact of coronavirus and trade war and we slowed investment for 2020 which is still over US$12B or about 5% YoY. We expect investment in China to pick up in 2021.
  • Europe/Mideast shows the largest growth in 2020 with over 50% and another 50% in 2021. 

Capacity

  • 300mm installed capacity (excluding EPI) is expected increase about 5% in 2020 and about 6% in 2021.
  • 200mm installed capacity (excluding EPI and LED) is still strong with about a 4% increase in 2020 and 3% in 2020.

New Fab / Construction Spending

  • The reports show for 2020 that 10 new construction projects start (15 including all probabilities); 4 in Taiwan, 2 in SE Asia, 2 in the Americas, 1 in Europe/Mideast and 1 in China.
  • 2021 shows 6 new construction projects to start (13 including all probabilities); 2 in China, 1 in Korea, 1 in Taiwan, 1 in the Americas, and 1 in Europe/Mideast.

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