The Economic Outlook for 2026 and Semiconductors: Looking at the Risks
ABSTRACT
Global real GDP growth slows in 2026, pulled down by a weak US economy. Tariffs, inflation risks and turmoil surrounding policy cause the US to weaken to near-recession conditions. Consumers remain somewhat resilient, although consumption growth slows modestly in the tariff-altered global economy. High uncertainty and weak demand lead to very weak investment growth through 2026. For semiconductor markets, expect weakness to continue for most consumer and industrial markets. Spending on technology goods for data centers and compute stays strong, however, as investment in AI captures a greater share of total investment. Uncertainty, inflation, debt, and unanticipated shocks remain a threat to the outlook.
BIOGRAPHY
Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist, Hilltop Economics LLC is a Certified Business Economist™ with a PhD in Business & Economics. He focuses on applying economic theory, forecasts and data to help businesses operate more efficiently in a complex global environment. His 35 years of experience include 20 years as chief economist at Air Products & Chemicals, Inc., three years directing the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS Global Insight (now a part of S&P Global), and 10 years with his own economic consulting practice. He developed the semiconductor modeling system for Linx-Consulting, Inc. “Econometric Semiconductor Forecast” (ESF) and has provided monthly forecasts for the ESF since December 2012.
He is a Fellow and Past President of the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the Consumer Technology Association and a regular contributor to its forecasts. His professional memberships include the American Economic Association, Western Economic Association, the Conference of Business Economists and the National Business Economic Issues Council. He brings a unique perspective that mixes the latest academic research with detailed practical forecasting and industry developments only attainable in off-the-record meetings with fellow business economists and policy makers.
Meldrum earned a PhD in Business and Economics (Lehigh University), MS in Operations Research (US Naval Postgraduate School), and BS in Operations Research (US Naval Academy). He did additional graduate work in the History of Strategy and Policy (Old Dominion University) and post-graduate studies in Country Risk Analysis (Lehigh University).
CBE™ and Certified Business Economist™ are certification marks owned by the National Association for Business Economics