Geopolitical Headwinds Facing the Industry in 2024: The Challenges of Industrial Policies, Export Controls, and Supply Chain Perturbations
ABSTRACT
Despite the potential for a major rebound of the semiconductor industry in 2024 as recovery from the pandemic and the growth of generative AI lead to new rounds of capital investment and capacity growth, the industry faces an unprecedented number of geopolitical headwinds. In this presentation, ASG Global Technology Policy Lead Paul Triolo will discuss the most important of these geopolitical factors at play. These range from big changes in industrial policy on semiconductors coming with the roll out of the first subsidies under the US CHIPS and Sciences Act, and other major investments coming in Japan, Korea, the EU, and Taiwan, to more export restrictions related to advanced compute coming from the Biden administration likely to continue roiling the sector, along with potential disruptions to critical minerals and other inputs coming from China in reaction to US policy measures. Hence the year 2024 will also see major efforts to diversity industry supply chains move forward, with unpredictable consequences. At the same time, continuing tensions between the US and China over the status of Taiwan are likely to become more acute after elections on Taiwan early in the year, with any change in the status quo or actual military conflict posing an existential risk to the semiconductor and broader IT industries. The geopolitics of semiconductors will continue to be a dominant theme for the tech sector throughout 2024.
BIOGRAPHY
Paul Triolo is Senior Vice President for China and Technology Policy Lead at ASG, where he is also an Associate Partner. He advises clients in technology, financial services, and other sectors as they navigate complex political and regulatory matters in the US, China, the European Union, India, and around the world.
A recognized expert in global technology policy, Mr. Triolo was most recently founder, Practice Head, and Managing Director of the Geo-Technology practice at Eurasia Group. At Eurasia Group he worked frequently and closely with financial services clients, including pension funds, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds around the world on technology policy issues. Previously, Mr. Triolo spent more than 25 years in senior positions in the U.S. government, analyzing China's rise as a technology power and advising senior policymakers on a broad set of technology-related issues. At the beginning of his career, he worked as an engineer for a semiconductor testing firm in Silicon Valley.
At both Eurasia Group and at ASG, Mr. Triolo has worked closely with some of the world’s leading companies on AI, helping then track regulatory issues globally, developing long-term strategies on thought leadership, and structure themselves internally to engage with regulators, particularly in the EU, the US, and China. He currently is client lead for several large and medium-sized AI clients, including companies that are developing AI IP and for firms in key industry verticals which deploy AI applications across their business operations. He served as an informal advisor to the Partnership on AI, and has written frequently on AI issues related to China.
Mr. Triolo is frequently quoted on technology policy issues in media outlets including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, the South China Morning Post, and others. He speaks regularly at conferences and has authored many journal articles and book chapters on global technology policy and China-related issues. He also serves as a senior associate with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
He received an M.A. in International Relations from the Catholic University and a B.A. in Electrical Engineering from Penn State University.