New Semiconductor Architectures Will Drive Innovation and Opportunities for Materials Suppliers

Is the materials era ending in the semiconductor industry? Will the scaling drivers that enabled opportunities in resists, strained silicon, high-k metal gate, Cu-interconnects, low-k dielectrics, and other areas continue for materials suppliers?

“We are leaving the Materials Era and entering the Architecture Era,” said Nobu Koshiba, president, JSR Corporation during the keynote of the Strategic Materials Conference, held on January 12–14. “The relative values of materials technology will diminish as evolution of CMOS devices is driven by new architectures.”

Not so said Karey Holland, Ph.D., of Techcet Group, “This is the materials decade.”

Koshiba pointed out that the previous decade was one driven by scaling where the industry was driven by the advancement of process technology in combination with materials science, all within today’s CMOS structure. The next decade and beyond will see radical changes to device structures to overcome the emerging “brick walls” of scaling. Many of these exotic architectures will be enabled by new materials and suppliers who capitalize on these trends towards innovation will succeed with the growing chip industry.

Characterizing the new era will be diversified pathways to extend scaling, including 3D IC, extended CMOS through FinFET and other innovative structures, beyond-CMOS technologies such as nanotubes, graphene and other non-silicon possibilities, and new application or “fusion devices.” The pathway for logic may include FinFET structures with gate last integration. Challenges to overcome include metal fill through small structure, strained gate, and high-temperature resistant dielectric fills that will require new deposition and material approaches.

In addition to 3D, DRAM and NAND, pathways may include MRAM and ReRAM that will require new conduction path formation, resistivity change approaches, and the discovery of resistive film materials which enable high-performance memory with simple planer stacking and/or cross point structure. New device structures may require magnetic materials with high-thermal stability, low temperature (< 250°C) cure dielectrics, and low temperature (< 250°C) deposition of metal through PVD, electro plating, and/or electroless.

Caption: Materials challenges for challenges and solutions for 3D IC.

Koshiba sees a paradigm shift from digital to analog as having major implications on materials in the semiconductor industry. High-growth analog devices include power ICs, sensors, displays, actuators and lighting. The applications that will drive the analog market will be energy conservation, power control for transportation, alternative energy sources, and other applications in so-called “clean-tech.”

The emerging materials era will also be driven by adjacent markets that leverage semiconductor processing technology and materials such as solar PV and LEDs. David Boar, chief technologist for LED products at Applied Materials and Johannes Kaeppeler, vice president of technology at Aixtron, gave an overview of the materials sets and process technologies enabling today’s high-power LEDs. The market for HB-LED is exploding today as they penetrate TVs and displays, but will eventually displace conventional lighting in homes and industry. Boar anticipates the industry rapidly moving to improved process consistency and control, full automation, larger substrates, higher yields. Kaeppeler gave an overview of how Aixtron attained a leadership position in MOCVD process technology and sees a possible future to include “split MOCVD process into multiple steps grown in different reactor chambers” and “inline MOCVD processes for simple structures.”

Several speakers addressed the growing materials opportunities and trends in solar PV. Joe Berwind, principal at Linx-AEI Consulting, estimates the global PV module demand to rise from 13.6 GW in 2010 to an astounding 28.5 GW in 2013, as U.S. and China growth compensates for reduced tariff incentives in Germany. The key for materials suppliers will be utilizing LCOE, or the levelized cost of energy, “in every step of the value chain.” Rommel Noufi, principal, Scientist/Group Manager at NREL discussed technology and cost reduction roadmaps for CIGS solar cells. Current opportunities CIGS with high potential results include replacing CdS with wide bandgap emitter (e.g., ZnS), increase the Ga/In ratio in CIGS through alternative deposition processes, and transition to CZTS to eliminate material availability issues. Noufi sees the CIGS share of the total market PV market potentially increasing from 17% today to as high as 25-30% by 2015.

Andrew Thompson of Proteus Biomedical sees an amazing future in ingestible electronics and a health care system revolution based on Moore’s Law cost drivers and business models. The company’s body-powered ingestible technology makes intelligent pharmaceuticals possible: microsensor-enabled medications that provide patients with valuable information to customize therapy. Proteus technology is made with comparable materials to an airline snack of peanuts and adds intelligence to any implanted medical device. Their functioning systems are based on tiny active electronics that can use your cell phone to authenticate your medicine, verify your dosage, and provide feedback to and from doctors at remote locations.

Karey Holland, PhD, of Techcet Group sees a “future brilliant for materials. This is the materials decade.” In a detailed analysis that included forecasts of all key semiconductor materials categories, Holland sees positive trends for any supplier who has survived the recent downturn. TechSet estimated the 2010 market for materials at $42 billion, comprised of packaging materials (49%), silicon (23%), direct materials (25%) and indirect materials (3%). Holland reminded the audience less than 11% of the total materials market goes to products with less than 45 nm geometries, the vast majority over 130 nm. In another reinforcement of age-old truths, she emphasized that many customers were still focused on cost saving “tweaks” to traditional materials such as CMP slurries, photoresists, and sputtered metals.

Holland expects significant growth in high-k and metal ALD/CVD precursors reaching to $100 million by 2015, particularly TAETO and Hf/Zr high k capacitors. The photoresist market will be positively influenced by double patterning and achieve a CAGR of 11% for the 2009-2015 period. Advanced interconnect materials, antireflective coatings, and CMP materials markets will also show sustained growth.

Looking forward, “new materials will be the key to Moore’s Law performance goals,” said Holland. The transition of interconnects from Al to Cu to lower-k will continue, high-k capacitors from Hf to Zr to composites (HfZrLa) to complex TiN stacks; optical interconnects, 3D-IC and high-performance architectures utilizing vertical Si nanowires, Ge high mobility channels, and graphene-based devices will continue to present new opportunities for innovative suppliers looking for high-margin business.

February 1, 2011