Wafer Fab Materials Quarterly

SEMI Research Methodology

The report is developed using a rigorous combination of primary and secondary market research approaches. SEMI collects direct input from a global network of 49 material suppliers—or 28, when focusing exclusively on Gas, PR/PRA, and Silicon segments—through SEMI proprietary industry data collection programs.

To ensure comprehensive industry coverage, SEMI analysts supplement this primary data with secondary research. This includes the analysis of publicly available information such as company financial reports and earnings calls, particularly for firms that do not participate in the primary data collection process.

The forecasting of wafer fab materials is based on a robust modeling framework that incorporates silicon shipment trends, fab capacity developments, and technology advancements. These forecasts are systematically updated on a quarterly basis to reflect the latest industry dynamics and market signals.
 

Linx Research Methodology

• Econometric Demand Forecast
  Linx uses the long term Econometric Semiconductor Forecast (ESF) to drive the top level demand for the devices in forecasting model.  The growth scenario used is the Q2 2025 version of the Linx / Hilltop ESF. This ESF is based on an economic forecast of moderate economic growth, with healthy growth returning after inventories return to historic levels.  For Q2 2025 forecast we have included influence of the wafer Production Index developed by Hilltop economics in 2024.
• Device Mix
  The device mix and growth projections are reviewed following published capacity numbers, and assumed utilization rates, and adjustments to the balance of devices.  There have been some retroactive changes as the capacity numbers were reviewed.
• Technology Roadmaps
  Each issue of the forecast incorporates process assumptions for each device category.  These reflect primary and secondary learnings by Linx and associate network, and are usually documented in Industry Analysis Reports.  Linx maintains a unique global materials demand forecast model for IC manufacturing materials.  This model is based on a regularly updated wafer start forecast maintained by Linx.  

By combining these process maps and wafer start forecasts with a detailed understanding of process requirements, volume forecasts are developed. As an independent check of these forecasts' key suppliers in each market segment are periodically interviewed to collect input on sales volume and revenue.  This information is used to correlate market forecasts, as well as to derive market share estimates.