Highlights of the May 2016 Edition of the Fab Databases

Highlights of the May 2016 Edition of the Fab Databases

You may be interested in this related Article: 19 New Fabs to Start Construction (June 14, 2016)

The May 2016 edition of the World Fab Forecast, FabFutures, World Fab Watch, Opto/LED Fab Watch, and the Opto/LED Fab Forecast databases have been published and are available now.  The following highlights are from our World Fab Forecast database:
Key Points

Fab Equipment Spending

  • Equipment spending (new and used) for 2016 is expected to increase by 2% (US$36B) down from the 4% forecast issued in February
  • Equipment spending (new and used) for 2017 is expected to increase by 13% (US$41B), unchanged from the February forecast
  • Equipment spending is expected to have a slow start in 2016 and accelerate in the second half of 2016. Spending growth will continue into 2017 driven by foundries, memory (both 3D NAND and DRAM), MPU, and Power 
  • In 2016 overall DRAM spending will slow by about 29% (US$6B), 3D-NAND spending will almost double with 95% growth (US$7B), Power also shows a strong increase, 23% (US$630M), Foundries increase by about 13% (US$14B), and MPU at 5% (US$2B)
  • In 2017, we expect DRAM spending to increase by 10% (US$7B) (though remaining well below 2015 levels of US$9B), 3D-NAND increases by 57% (US$11B), Power increases to almost 30% (US$810M), MPU at 15% (US$3B), and Foundries are at 10% (US$15B)

Installed Capacity

  • Worldwide installed capacity growth (excluding LED and EPI) is forecasted to expand almost 1% in 2016 and 3% in 2017. Although companies are adding capacity, the loss of capacity when transitioning to leading nodes impacts overall capacity growth rate
  • Most capacity added in 2016 and 2017 is for 3D NAND with 112% growth in 2016 and 90% in 2017. Foundry capacity increases at 5% in 2016 and 4% in 2017, Analog at 2% in 2016 and another 2% in 2017, and MEMS at 3% in 2016 and 4% in 2017
  • 300mm capacity will increase 1% in 2016 and 5% in 2017. 200mm capacity will increase with 2% in 2016 and between 2% to 3% in 2017

New Facilities / Construction Spending

  • 19 new facilities/lines with higher probability (60% or greater) that will begin construction in 2016 and 2017
  • Most construction spending in 2016 will be for Memory (US$4B), with most for 3D NAND (US$4B). Second in construction spending is foundries (US$2B)
  • In 2017, foundry will lead spending with U$4B followed by memory with US$3B, where 3D-NAND has majority with US$3B
  • The largest spending project in 2016 and 2017 is Samsung's Fab in Pyeongtaek with an estimated total construction spending of over US$4B
  • Other large projects for cleanrooms in 2016: Micron Fab 10X in Singapore (US$720M), UMC Fab 12X (US$625M), TSMC with 3 fabs (US$1B),  Hynix M14 (US$450M), Flash Alliance Y2 (US$400M), Intel with several projects (US$550M).


Activity Report 

  • Since last report published March 2016, we made 256 changes including adding 24 facilities (new and exisiting) and closing 16 facilities
  • The current report lists a total of 1,163 records including 300 Opto & LED related facilities
  • There are 70 future facilities with various probabilities which will start volume production in 2016 or later

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Detail of all fabs including ones that have or will have spending plans. Includes closed fabs for the period.

Detail of fabs that have committed to spending (construction and/or equipment spending).

Provides a previous quarter summary of all fabs including fabs that will be closed.

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