Semiconductor New Equipment Market $32.0 Billion for 2013; Forecast Growth in 2014 and 2015
By Lara Chamness, SEMI Industry Research and Statistics
Orders for new equipment slowly improved early on in 2013, with bookings reaching a peak by the second quarter before receding in the third quarter. Over this time, equipment billings, while increasing, were trending below 2012 levels. In October, book-to-bill data from both SEMI and the SEAJ show bookings are increasing once again, and this indicates a stronger fourth quarter for the semiconductor equipment market compared to the third quarter. Given these trends, the recently published SEMI Year-end Forecast predicts that the new equipment market will contract 13.3 percent for this year (to $32.0 billion) and increase 23.2 percent for 2014, with another market gain of 2.4 percent expected for 2015.
The SEMI Year-end Forecast predicts that new wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is anticipated to decrease 10.7 percent in 2013 to total $25.1 billion, on par with 2004 spending levels. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will decline by 22.1 percent to $2.4 billion in 2013. The market for semiconductor test equipment is forecasted to decline by 20.7 percent, reaching $2.8 billion this year. The “Other Front End” category (fab facilities, mask/reticle, and wafer manufacturing equipment) is expected in decrease 25.2 percent in 2013.
Korea, Taiwan, and North America remain the largest spending regions, though of the three only Taiwan is expected to show an increase in spending for 2013. According to SEMI, in 2013, Taiwan will reach equipment sales of $10.2 billion, with North American sales totaling $5.7 billion and Korea sales registering $5.5 billion. Regions experiencing the steepest declines in spending in 2013 include: Korea, North America, and Europe. The equipment market in Rest of World, primarily Southeast Asia, is expected to increase 3.2 percent due to investments by GLOBALFOUNDRIES and Micron. Sizable investments by Samsung, SK Hynix and SMIC are projected to spur growth in the China equipment market this year and the next.
Projects driving the Taiwan equipment market this year and the next include but are not limited to TSMC’s Fab 12, Fab 14, and Fab 15. Inotera is also upgrading its Fab 1 and Fab 2, while Macronic, Micron, Nanya, and UMC are investing in the region.
In 2014, all regions except Rest of World are expected to have strong positive growth, resulting in a global increase of 23.2 percent in sales. 2015 sales are expected to continue to grow — increasing 2.4 percent with Europe, Japan, Korea, China, and Rest of World regions registering positive growth.
The following results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars.
The SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group provides timely market and trend information for market research, competitive analysis, and sales forecasting. We focus on the global semiconductor capital equipment, selected materials markets and fab forecasting data. Please visit www.semi.org/marketinfo for additional information.
SEMI has a long tradition of generating forecasts for new semiconductor equipment. These forecasts are published two times a year in conjunction with SEMICON West in July and SEMICON Japan in December. SEMI bases this forecast on monthly “bookings and billings” data that it collects directly from semiconductor equipment suppliers, data from the SEMI World Fab database, and feedback from equipment suppliers. This forecast covers both “Front-end” equipment (typically associated with wafer fabrication) and “Back-end” equipment (equipment used to package and test individual devices). The new equipment forecast contrasts to the “bottoms-up” forecast generated by the World Fab database, which bases its projections on CapEx announcements by device manufacturers and only covers fab equipment, including used and equipment manufactured directly by fabs.
December 3, 2013