Positive Forecasts for Electronic Gases, CMP Consumables, and Sputtering Targets
What’s the latest in materials forecasts for electronic gases, CMP consumables, and sputtering targets? Techcet Group gives us an update, complete with charts and graphs.
Electronic Gases Enjoy Modest Recovery from 2009 Low
The 2011 market for electronic gases totaled $3.1 billion, up 15 percent from the prior year, according to a new report from Techcet Group. The 2012 outlook is for a modest 3.2 percent growth overall, with the electronic specialty gases segment leading the way with 5.0 percent growth to $2.1 billion and bulk gases flat at $1.1 billion. Growth is expected to continue at this rate into 2013 to a forecast $3.5 billion total.
The WW electronic gases market grew 11 percent in 2011 over 2010 to $3.1 billion, with specialty gases up 15 percent to $2.0 billion and bulk gases up 7 percent to $1.1billion. The 2012 outlook is for a modest 3.2 percent growth overall, with the electronic specialty gases segment leading the way with 5.0 percent growth to $2.1 billion and bulk gases flat at $1.1billion. Source: Techcet Group 2012
The introduction of new device structures at 22nm and below is providing some new growth opportunities for the specialty gases market. However, many of these emerging applications will turn to liquid chemical precursors for high-volume manufacturing. Specialty gases are therefore expected to grow at only single-digit rates over the next several years. The industry move to 450mm wafers is anticipated to provide an increase in gas and chemical consumption that is closer to 3.0x per wafer than the 2.5x that is widely reported.
In bulk gases, Air Products and Air Liquide share the market lead with 28 percent share each. In specialty gases, Air Products has a comfortable 7 point lead over Air Liquide though each is over 20% share. Praxair, Linde, TNSC and OCI round out the other global share leaders.
The report discusses the global issues that are affecting the market dynamics and supply chain stability for He and anhydrous HCl. Other focus topics include SiH4, NF3 and WF6. The outlook for future gas usage as shaped by environmental concerns, legislative changes, and geopolitical issues are also discussed.
CMP Consumables Market Rebounds Sharply
The global CMP consumables market is continuing its sustainable growth following the 2008-2009 recession. At $1.55 billion, 2011 CMP slurry and pad revenues are up 1.6 percent over 2010, and 2012 is projected to be up an additional 3.8 percent, according to a new report from Techcet Group. The combined CMP pad and slurry market for 2012 is forecast to be $1.60 billion, rising by 2017 to $1.72 billion for a CAGR of 1.7 percent over this period.
The overall slurry market share of Cabot Microelectronics, the historical market leader, has stabilized at about one-third globally. Four Tier 2 suppliers, Hitachi Chemical, FujiFilm, Air Products NanoMaterials (formerly DANM) and Fujimi have established overall market shares of 10-14 percent each. The pad market is still led by Dow Chemical with about two-thirds share globally. Cabot Microelectronics has pulled ahead in the Tier 2 pad group with about 9 percent share compared to 4-6 percent each for innoPad, JSR and Thomas West.
Combined revenue for CMP slurry and pads is expected to continue to grow at a modest 1.7 percent CAGR over the coming five years. A more robust growth rate is expected for slurries being developed for emerging FEOL applications, but revenue projections are not included here. Each of these process steps will be a single pass addressing very thin films, so volumes for each slurry will be comparable to STI. Source: Techcet Group 2012
The existence of previously reported "magic triangles," specific combinations of slurry, pad and pad conditioner that result in unexpected, exceptional performance with respect to dishing and defects, continues to be supported with new reports from several consumable suppliers and fab end users. Such combinations have likely become apparent only recently due to the close scrutiny required to meet process specifications at 45nm and below.
Sputtering Target Business for 2011 Tops Out at $550 Million
The 2011 market for semiconductor sputtering targets totaled $550M, up 7% from the prior year, according to a new report from Techcet Group. The 2012 outlook is for an additional 5 percent growth to $580 million, driven by a 20-30 percent rise in tantalum prices on top of the projected increase in wafer starts. The market CAGR is expected to remain at ~5 percent for the 2010-2015 period.
The market price of tantalite ore peaked at $140/lb before settling back to <$100/lb in late 2011 due to the reopening of Australian mines that had closed in 2009. Geopolitical issues will continue to affect pricing on Ta, Ti, W, Mn and Ru in the coming 1-2 years. Most dramatic among these has been Ru, which peaked at >$400/toz (Troy ounce) in 2007, plummeted to ~$80/toz in early 2009, and has stabilized at ~$180/toz in 2011.
The market for semiconductor sputtering targets totaled $550 million in 2011, up 7 percent from the prior year. The 2012 outlook is for an additional 5 percent growth to $580 million. The market CAGR is expected to remain at ~5 percent for the 2010-2015 period. Source: Techcet Group 2012
The semiconductor sputtering targets market is dominated by four suppliers: market leader JX Nikko Mining & Metals at 30 percent share, followed by Praxair-MRC, Tosoh SMD and Honeywell Electronic Materials, each with roughly equal global market shares that vary by region. The remaining market of less than 8 percent is shared by a handful of other suppliers, including two new suppliers in China.
SEMI Special Interest Group
The SEMI Chemical and Gases Manufacturers Group is a special interest group of SEMI made up of members who produce, package and/or distribute chemicals or gases used in micro-electronics applications. CGMG is the driver behind a number of materials-related initiatives. The group also produces events (like the Strategic Materials Conference and materials events at the various SEMICONs) and guides SEMI on materials-related issues. To join (or for more information) on the Chemical and Gases Manufacturers Group, please contact Tom Salmon (firstname.lastname@example.org or call 408.943.6965).
Techcet Group, LLC specializes in technical trend analysis and market analysis for the semiconductor, silicon, PV and related electronics industries. The company has produced the International Sematech Critical Material Reports since 2001. For additional information about these reports, contact Techcet Customer Service, email@example.com, +1-480-336-2160, or visit our website at www.techcet.com.
December 4, 2012