CMP Consumables Market Rebounds Sharply
Additional 9% Revenue Growth Expected for 2011
The global Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP) consumables market has recovered from the 2008-09 recession with a vengeance. CMP materials revenues for 2010 are up 37% over 2009 and have already recovered to 2007 levels, two years earlier than expected, according to Michael A. Fury of Techcet Group. The CMP combined pad and slurry market this year is forecast to be $1.65B, rising by 2016 to $1.96B for a CAGR of 4.4% over this period (Figure 1). The sharp rebound is consistent with other segments of the electronic materials supply chain and the robust health of the semiconductor industry overall.
The market rebound carries with it a redistribution of wealth from tungsten and ILD slurry revenues to copper and STI, indicative both of the growing manufacturing volumes of leading edge copper devices and of the higher ASP of these advanced slurries (Figure 2).
In retrospect, several CMP consumable suppliers that are focused on leading-edge customers now report that they did not see a dip in revenues or volume through the 2008-09 recession. This suggests that process development for next generation chip release had continued unabated. The recession afforded fab engineers the time to evaluate a generous sampling of new products being introduced by the supplier community. This has led to the discovery of several "magic triangles," specific combinations of slurry, pad and pad conditioner that result in unexpected, exceptional performance with respect to dishing and defects. Such combinations have likely become apparent only now due to the close scrutiny required to meet process specifications at 45nm and below.
There are a record 15 slurry suppliers who have established sustainable revenue streams in at least one CMP process segment, although Cabot Microelectronics remains the dominant player with approximately 40% market share overall. Six other slurry suppliers (FujiFilm, Fujimi, Dow, DuPont Air Products NanoMaterials and Hitachi) have established shares ranging from 5% to 11%. The supremacy of Dow in CMP pads has been breached by Cabot Microelectronics and three other suppliers (Thomas West, JSR and innoPad), each with 3-7% share, although Dow still holds a commanding 80-85% lead.
The CMP materials market is reviewed in a new report from Techcet Group, “CMP Consumables 2011 Critical Materials Report,” part of the Critical Materials Report series commissioned each year by SEMATECH. In addition to slurries and pads, the report includes a market breakdown for all CMP-related consumables and over 100 suppliers. For additional information, visit http://www.techcet.com/.
Additional information from this report will be presented by Dr. Fury at the NCCAVS CMPUG meeting during SEMICON West 2011 on Wednesday, July 13 from 10:30am-12:30pm at the TechXPOT in Moscone South. For more information on SEMICON West, visit http://www.semiconwest.org/.
July 5, 2011