SEMI Announces Year-End Consensus Forecast for Chip Equipment Industry


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SEMI ANNOUNCES YEAR-END CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR CHIP EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY

Semiconductor Equipment Companies Expect Sales of US$32.95 Billion in 2005

CHIBA, Japan–December 7, 2005–The leading manufacturers of semiconductor equipment project 2005 sales to reach $32.95 billion according to the year-end edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast, released here today by SEMI at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition.

The forecast indicates that, following the robust 67 percent market expansion in 2004, the equipment market will decline 11.2 percent in 2005. Survey respondents see the market growing at a single-digit rate in 2006 and resuming double-digit growth over the following two years to reach $46.63 billion in 2008.

"Capital spending in 2005 reflects an anticipated cyclic decline following the very high investment levels of the prior year. However, this remains the third strongest year for worldwide semiconductor equipment sales," said SEMI President and CEO Stanley Myers. "Furthermore, SEMI members expect the equipment market to continue posting sequential gains over the next three years as chipmakers continue to invest in 300 mm fabs and 65 nm technology."

The SEMI Year-End Consensus Forecast indicates that the final manufacturing equipment segments will experience the sharpest declines this year. Survey respondents anticipate that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will contract 19 percent to $1.99 billion in 2005. The market for equipment to test semiconductors is expected to decline about 17 percent to $5.27 billion this year. Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to decline nearly 10 percent in 2005 to $22.97 billion.

The Japanese market, which grew more than 49 percent last year, remains the largest market region for worldwide equipment sales with $8.04 billion of new equipment sold into the region in 2005.

South Korea stands out as the only expanding regional equipment market in 2005, with growth of almost 28 percent. Sales of new equipment in China and the Rest-of-World market regions will decline 54 percent and 35 percent respectively.

The SEMI Year-End Consensus Forecast is based on interviews conducted between late October and November 2005 with companies representing a majority of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment industry.

The following survey results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars and percentage growth over the prior year:

Forecast by Equipment Segment

 

2004 Actual

2005

%
Chng

2006

%
Chng

2007

%
Chng

2008

%
Chng

Equipment Type

$B

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

Wafer Processing

$25.45

$22.97

-9.7%

$24.52

6.8%

$27.82

13.5%

$32.70

17.5%

Assembly &
Packaging

2.46

1.99

-19.1%

2.17

9.4%

2.40

10.7%

2.73

13.4%

Test

6.37

5.27

-17.1%

6.23

18.1%

6.77

8.7%

7.50

10.8%

Other

2.84

2.73

-3.6%

3.05

11.6%

3.40

11.7%

3.70

8.8%

Total Equipment*

$37.11

$32.95

-11.2%

$35.97

9.1%

$40.40

12.3%

$46.63

15.4%

Forecast by Region

 

2004 Actual

2005

%
Chng

2006

%
Chng

2007

%
Chng

2008

%
Chng

Market Region

$B

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

North America

$5.81

$5.79

-0.3%

$6.24

7.7%

$6.79

8.9%

$7.72

13.6%

Japan

8.27

8.04

-2.8%

8.58

6.7%

9.55

11.3%

10.67

11.7%

Taiwan

7.76

5.88

-24.3%

6.57

11.9%

7.67

16.7%

9.09

18.5%

Europe

3.44

3.19

-7.4%

3.28

2.7%

3.56

8.5%

3.92

10.1%

South Korea

4.61

5.89

27.8%

6.36

7.9%

7.05

10.9%

8.18

16.1%

China

2.73

1.24

-54.1%

1.57

26.8%

1.98

26.6%

2.55

28.3%

Rest of World

4.49

2.92

-35.0%

3.37

15.4%

3.79

12.5%

4.50

18.8%

Total Equipment*

$37.11

$32.95

-11.2%

$35.97

9.1%

$40.40

12.3%

$46.63

15.4%

*Totals and percentages may differ due to rounding of numbers

SEMI is a global industry association serving companies that provide equipment, materials and services used to manufacture semiconductors, displays, nano-scaled structures, micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) and related technologies. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, San Jose (Calif.), Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit www.semi.org.

ASSOCIATION CONTACT:

Scott Smith/SEMI
Tel: 1.408.943.7957
E-mail: ssmith@semi.org