2011 Outlook for Semiconductor Fab Materials


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2011 Outlook for Semiconductor Fab Materials

By Dan Tracy, senior director, SEMI Industry Research & Statistics

The record levels for semiconductor sales, in both revenues and units, generated tremendous growth in the semiconductor materials market. Total silicon wafer shipments, from the wafer suppliers to the fabs, grew 40 percent in 2010. As the chart below shows, growth was strong for all wafer diameters. With the broad-based recovery in the semiconductor industry, both 150 mm and 200 mm shipments increased by rates comparable to 300 mm wafer shipments last year. Overall, 6 percent wafer shipment growth is currently estimated for 2011, with 300 mm shipments likely growing in the range of 11 to 13 percent. Both 150 mm and 200 mm should see slower growth, with increases in the 2 to 3 percent range forecasted.

Global Silicon Wafer Shipments (Semiconductor applications only)

Looking at revenues for fab materials shown in the table below, the market increased by an estimated 29 percent in 2010 (Final year-end data will be available in March once SEMI completes its supplier surveys). Silicon wafer revenues increased by over 40 percent to approach $10.2 billion. This fab material segment is forecasted to reach almost $10.8 billion in 2011. Photoresists and related ancillary chemicals needed for lithographic processing grew to $2.45 billion last year and are forecast to grow to over $2.5 billion. The CMP material market is expected to increase by 9 percent in 2011 to reach almost $1.3 billion.

      * Silicon Wafers: Includes merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers

The outlook of 5.5 percent revenue growth for total fab materials is in-line with current expectations of modest single-digit growth for the semiconductor industry in 2011. Stronger demand for electronics, especially mobile products, could result in even higher than expected growth for semiconductor products in 2011; therefore, increasing the amount of wafers processed and materials consumed.

The SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group provides timely market and trend information for market research, competitive analysis, and sales forecasting. We focus on the global semiconductor capital equipment, selected materials markets and fab forecasting data. Please visit www.semi.org/marketinfo for additional information. Also, visit www.semi.org/fabs for updates on fab investment plans and SEMI fab database offerings.

SEMI Global Update

February 1, 2011