Japan Leading Region into 2010
By Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research and Statistics
According to the World Fab Forecast, Japan's share of worldwide fab capacity (including Discrete devices) remains unchanged in 2009 at about 25%, or 3.8 to 3.9 million wafers per month (in 200 mm equivalents). The World Fab Forecast shows that Japan maintains a strong position also into 2010.
Spending on equipping Front End facilities in Japan is expected to be about US$2 Billion in 2009 and may increase by about 70% to over US$ 3B in 2010. Spending is primarily for 300 mm Memory fabs.
The global recession has resulted in leading chip makers NEC Electronics and Renesas to announce a merger, with a planned completion effective April 1, 2010. The new company will have double the capacity of either company separately and represent about a 12 to 13% total share of fab capacity in Japan. Though sizeable, the merged capacity total is about half compared to Toshiba’s share of installed capacity in Japan (including its alliances and joint ventures with Sandisk and SONY) of about 25% in 2009 and 27% in 2010.
In 2009 and 2010, the largest equipment spenders will be Elpida, Fujitsu, NEC Electronics and Toshiba, with the Flash Alliance and Alliance with SONY.
Starting in June 2009, Toshiba began to raise $3B in global stock offerings to invest in its factories. This represents Japan’s largest stock offering by a non-financial company in the past eight years. Toshiba continues to focus on NAND Flash, having expanded its partnership with the IBM Alliance and renewed its NAND patent pact with Samsung.
Toshiba’s total capex plan is 1100B Yen (about US$ 11.5B) from fiscal year 2009 to 2011. About 49% of its product line consists of electronic devices and components, accounting for about US$ 5.65B from FY 09 to 11. Its planned capex for semiconductors for fiscal year 2009 is about US$ 940M. The remaining $4.7B will be spent in fiscal years 2010 and 2011; or, in calendar years, about $2B for 2010 and more than that in 2011.
Even with fewer companies in the arena, Japan still remains the leading region worldwide in terms of installed fab capacity and a key region in terms of capital expenditures. With the merger of leading chip companies such as NEC Electronics and Renesas, fewer but stronger companies are left leading Japan into next year.
SEMI World Fab Forecast report provides high-level summaries and graphs; in-depth analyses of capital expenditure, capacity, technology and products, down to the detail of each fab; and forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how 2009 and 2010 will look, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology level, and products.
The difference between the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data and the World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports is that the fab database reports track any equipment needed to ramp the fab, upgrade, expand or change its wafer size regardless if it is new equipment, used equipment, or transferred equipment, while WWSEMS tracks only new equipment.
Please visit www.semi.org/fabs for additional information on these reports.
October 15, 2009