Oerlikon Solar Sees U.S. "Poised to Become Largest Market in World by 2012
 Dr. Chris Constantine
Director of New Technologies
Oerlikon Solar
The fastest growing PV segment will be the distributed generation utility segment (under 20MW) with new utility project models, growing financing support, and growing public policy support to help accelerate growth. Total US demand could reach as high as 4GW in 2012, dramatically up from the 2009 level of less than 700MW.
Key short term growth drivers include the Investment Tax Credit grants that provide a 30% refund (not tax credit) through 2010, the DOE energy loan guarantee program, expanded utility financing, and accelerated depreciation schedules The clearly optimistic 4GW upside scenario assumes continuation and expansion of state-level incentives, national Renewal Portfolio Standards (RPS) and accelerated investment recovery. In California, which comprises 60% of the US grid-connected solar PV market, market drivers include the California Solar Initiative for systems less than 1MW in size, an increase in the RPS to 33%, expanded state FIT programs, and provisions that allow utility ownership and accelerated depreciation for solar. Constantine said that 29 states also have RPS, 16 with explicit targets or "multipliers" for solar and small-scale distributed renewables. Several states are considering additional RPS increases and FIT legislation.
Another important factor is that more states are adopting "time of use" electric rates for commercial customers which will result in utilities seeing higher value in procurement of PV electricity during high peak times. Utilities may also enter the commercial PV rooftop business, with new projects by Southern California Edison and others offering a glimpse into future business models.
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